Bitcoin was down 3.4% on
Thursday, ending the day near $39.9K, although it managed to bounce back above
$40.1K by Friday morning, cutting the intraday decline to 2.8%. Ethereum has
lost 2.5% in the last 24 hours, and other leading altcoins from the top ten are
predominantly declining, from -1% (BNB) to -7.3% (Terra). The exception was
XRP, which added 5.4% during this time.

BTC
can develop a reversal
According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market
decreased by 2.8% per day, to $1.87 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell
by 0.3% to 40.7%.

By Friday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index returned to the extreme fear
territory, losing 6 points to 22. US stocks failed to build on the offensive,
losing all of the previous day’s gains, leading to a stronger selloff for
bitcoin compared to alternative cryptocurrencies.

From the technical side, Bitcoin is trading near the support level, which runs
through the lows of January, February and March. A formal signal to break the
support will be considered a failure under the previous lows in the $38K area.
The ability to develop a reversal to the offensive from these levels, on the
contrary, will reinforce the importance of this moderate uptrend line.

Crypto
news
The head of Ripple noted that the court with the SEC is going “much better than
expected,” which provoked a wave of XRP growth, allowing the coin to resist
gravity.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that the largest asset management company continues
to study the cryptocurrency sector.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said that the company has no plans to introduce payments
in cryptocurrency in the near future, although it is exploring the
possibilities of digital assets. At the same time, he looks to the future of
cryptocurrencies and NFTs with interest and optimism.

The Bank of Canada is exploring scenarios for the coexistence of digital and
fiat currencies, the first regulator to decide to use quantum computing for
this study.

Bank of Japan chief executive Shinichi Uchida said the upcoming digital yen
will not be used to achieve a negative interest rate. The second stage of the
launch of the digital yen started on March 24th this year.

 
This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

 

The report says that the BOJ will raise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to near 2% later at this month’s policy meeting amid a surge higher in global commodity costs, resulting in higher energy and food inflation.That said, the Japanese central bank will continue to bunker down on the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose in order to bolster the economic recovery from the pandemic.The sources say that the BOJ will likely lift its core consumer inflation forecast to above 1.5% from the current estimate of 1.1%.The BOJ will next meet on 28 April.

CPI +4.5% vs +4.5% y/y prelim The preliminary report can be found here. No change to the initial estimates as French inflation surges higher, owing much to a sharp acceleration in energy prices. That said, food prices also has increased significantly compared to the same period last year as price pressures in general are pushing higher – not helped by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Looking at the details, energy prices showed a jump of 29.2% y/y in March as compared to the 21.1% y/y increase in February. Meanwhile, food prices were up 2.9% y/y in March as compared to the 2.1% y/y increase in February.

The Chinese military says that the drills are targeted at the ‚wrong signal‘ sent by the US about Taiwan.For some context, six US lawmakers led by Senator Lindsey Graham arrived in Taipei late yesterday evening. The rest of the delegation comprises of Senator Robert Menendez, Richard Burr, Robert Portman, Ben Sasse, and Ronny Jackson. This was a previously unannounced visit and surely will irk China even more.

For all the talk in wanting to fight against inflation, the ECB certainly isn’t hinting at much conviction. The key word yesterday was flexibility as the ECB wants to be able to be afforded policy options and not be cornered into hiking rates as soon as possible.Lagarde’s press conference made that clear when she said that rate hikes could come any time between a week or a few months after APP purchases end, which is still believed to be scheduled for Q3.It’s not like we weren’t warned. *coughs*The lack of conviction certainly leaves little room for a potential move in July, although ECB sources reported that it may still be on the table. But given the tight turnaround time, it could be unlikely unless inflation threatens to surge much higher. And even then, we may still see policymakers sit on their hands.As for the euro, it’s hard to find much optimism for the time being. With a central bank that isn’t showing much willingness to be aggressive and a rather dour economic outlook with geopolitical tensions still casting a big shadow over the region, it’s a tough one to be positive.EUR/USD is now testing the 1.0800 level once again and if that gives way, we could be on course to test the 2020 low at 1.0635 next.