Fed’s Mester: Recent inflation data is welcome news 0 (0)

<ul><li>Seeing tentative signs that inflation rises are stabilizing; not calling a peak </li><li>Expects Fed to hike by more than its median forecast</li><li>It will take time for inflation to ebb</li></ul><p>Mester spoke on Bloomberg TV. </p><p>The Fed is going to spend the next month pushing back against the bond market. We’ll see who wins but the bond market is showing a lot of confidence so far.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Bad data leads to bad decisions 0 (0)

<p>It was a busy week and one of the things I missed was a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/die4859YAs“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>report </a>from the Philadelphia Fed’s research department that questioned non-farm payrolls numbers.</p><p>The report focuses on the March-June period and compares the comprehensive quarterly data against the usual monthly release. It’s not a small change:</p><blockquote>In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES [non-farm payrolls report] estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period. </blockquote><p>Said another way, non-farm payrolls were nearly nil from March-June.</p><p>Now some of those jobs appear to have been pushed to earlier periods so it’s not as bad as it seems but if the Fed is concerned with trajectory, then there might be more slowing than the monthly jobs reports have indicated.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

China says that monetary policy will be precise and forceful 0 (0)

<ul><li>Will keep liquidity reasonably ample</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>To better coordinate epidemic prevention and control, social and economic development</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Will step up macro economic adjustments, strengthen policy coordination</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Will expand domestic demand, prioritise consumption recovery</li></ul><p>This of course comes after the two-day Central Economic Work Conference, with the state media citing remarks from China president Xi Jinping. These are all very on the surface as you would expect and they don’t show much deviation in terms of policy strategy from China. The headline is an interesting one though as it omits the phrase ‚prudent‘ and instead now puts emphasis on monetary policy being ‚precise‘ and ‚forceful‘. Let’s see if future remarks will adopt a similar wording.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Stock Indices: Are They Built to be a Good Investment?” 0 (0)

<p>Fun fact! What is the plural form of an index?</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://xpoken.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Indices or indexes</a>? </p><p>It is both acceptable. But, the word „<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://xpoken.com/signup“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>indices</a>“
has historically been used more frequently. Even if the use of the Americanized
plural „indexes“ has grown over time, it still seems far less common
than „indices“ around the world. Yet, according to Google Trends,
„indices“ is the most popular search word worldwide.</p><p>Now let’s discuss what a stock index or equity index is</p><p>Equities are grouped and priced to a base value at a particular
date to create equity indexes, which are an aggregate of statistical
importance. An equity index is a collection of securities that have been put
together to provide insight into price growth or total return over a given time
frame.</p><p>A fund applies the exact weighting mechanism on its stocks
because index funds are designed to follow a particular index.</p><p>The majority of the significant market indices are weighted by
market capitalization. Many fund companies have begun offering alternative
weighted index funds in recent years. But a price-weighted index was the
catalyst for everything.</p><p>Four Methodologies and their Pros & Cons</p><p>Stock indices or Equity Indices have Four Approaches.</p><p>The most popular methodology, known as the „market
value“ or „capitalization-weighted“ index (MWI), is based
on the size of each company. These refer to the terms large, mid, and small-cap
stocks. It is the standard way of determining a company’s size. </p><p>Most leading indices, including the S&P 500, uses the market
cap weighting method.</p><p>Pros</p><p>They ought to be more fully represented when evaluating the
market’s performance. That is accurate.</p><p>Cons</p><p>As a method of investing, it is absurd. An investor would
purchase more of a stock as its price increases and sell the stock as its price
decreases, according to a market-cap-weighted index. </p><p>Price Weighted Index</p><p>It’s the oldest and least used index approach, based on the
price average of the underlying stock. A stock with a higher price is given more
weight in the index. </p><p>Pros</p><p>The simplicity of calculation is the only benefit.</p><p>Cons</p><p>The main criticism of a price-weighted approach is that it
focuses too much on share price regardless of underlying factors. Additionally,
the cost indicates what a buyer is willing to pay. It makes no mention of the
index’s stocks‘ overall performance. It is seldom used because of this.</p><p>Equal Weighted Index</p><p>This is the first of two alternate weightings employed in
smart-beta funds. Because each stock is equally important regardless of its
fundamentals, market capitalization, or price, said, each stock in the index is
weighted equally. In exchange, each stock equally influences the index’s
performance.</p><p>Pros</p><p>It reduces the focus on market capitalization. Therefore, the index
fund is not compelled to sell more undervalued companies and buy more
overvalued equities. Equal-weighted index funds reduce it somewhat, but only
partially. Due to the identical weighting of each stock, it just tends to be
more unpredictable.</p><p>Cons</p><p>High turnover is a result of price adjustments. In maintaining
an equal balance, shares are continuously acquired and traded. This increases
the fund’s expense ratio and may also increase your tax liabilities.</p><p>Fundamentally-Weighted Index</p><p>A fundamentally weighted index emphasizes one or more variables,
such as sales, book value, dividends, cash flow, or earnings. Stocks that fit
those criteria are given more weight in the index.</p><p>Pros</p><p>The emphasis on performance factors is its advantage. This
eliminates the equal weighing and backward approach randomness that a market
cap weighting provides. </p><p>Cons</p><p>Higher costs become a concern in this index. But, more
importantly, any fundamentally weighted index fund needs enough investors to
use the exact strategy. </p><p>RUN-THROUGH</p><p>You can anticipate that other fund families will join if
equal-weighted or alternative-weighted funds become increasingly popular. The
potential may create some excellent opportunities for sector-specific funds.
You can find a different weighting system that matches your investment
philosophy with more research.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

DOW JONES Technical Analysis 0 (0)

<p class=“MsoNormal“>We finally got past the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-hikes-50-basis-points-as-expected-20221214/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FOMC
Policy Decision</a> and saw some weakness in the market creeping in
afterwards. The overall event was more hawkish than expected on two fronts. The
<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fomc-dot-plot-and-central-tendencies-from-dec-2022-meeting-eoy-2023-48-20221214/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Dot
Plot</a>, showing the peak rate, was revised to 5.1%, which is a bit higher than
the market expectations at the time of the event but more or less in line with
peak rate expectations in the past weeks/months. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The more hawkish stuff here is
that the majority of members saw rates peak at or above the 5% level, which
shows an unanimity among members, and the rate is expected to be cut to 4.1% in
2024, which is higher than previously indicated and shows a willing to stay
“higher for longer”. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The second more hawkish part came
from the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-opening-statement-we-have-more-work-to-do-20221214/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Fed
Chair Powell press conference</a> where he pushed back against
bets that the Fed would reverse course next year and that they will “stay the
course until the job is done” to avoid the mistakes of the 1970s when the Fed
prematurely eased monetary policy and had to fight with repeated inflationary waves.
</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The Fed also keeps on repeating
that the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-november-non-farm-payrolls-263k-vs-200k-expected-20221202/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>labour
market</a> is extremely tight. They probably won’t have conviction in lowering
interest rates until they see unemployment to pick up. Even though inflation
data may continue on showing relief, the Fed clearly wants to see the labour
market to show weakness as well. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>To achieve this, they need a
proper recession and that’s what the bond market may be seeing. For the stock
market, on the other hand, it’s not good news as a possible overtightening from
the Fed and a serious recession are two of the worst scenarios. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>DOW JONES Technical Analysis</p><p class=“MsoCaption“>Recent two weeks of price action and catalysts on the Dow
Jones on tradingview.com</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the technical side as you can
see in the chart above, the price has been chopping around for the last 2 weeks
as tier one economic data increased the fear of a possible surprise in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-november-cpi-71-yy-vs-73-expected-20221213/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>CPI
report</a>, which in the end missed expectations. The market erred anyway on the
defensive side going into the FOMC meeting and got served a more hawkish than expected
event. The price now is compressed between an upward trendline and a strong
resistance.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Looking at the daily chart below
we can see that the 35192-35412 blue zone is a pretty strong resistance. The
price couldn’t break that area and got immediately rejected after the spike
from the CPI report. We can also see that there’s a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>bearish
divergence</a> between the price and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-relative-strength-index-rsi-20220426/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>RSI</a>. This signals a weakening
momentum right at the resistance, which points more to the downside than the
upside. Will this FOMC event mark the top in the Dow Jones? </p><p class=“MsoCaption“>Daily chart of the Dow Jones on tradingview.com</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>We will see. As of now, the
levels to watch are the blue zone <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>resistance</a> and the blue upward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>trendline</a>. If the price breaks up, we may
see the Dow Jones climb to the all-time-high at the 36832 level. If the price
breaks down, we should see the price reaching the first target at 31761 and a
further break below may lead to the low at 28660.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

BOE raises bank rate by 50 bps to 3.50%, as expected 0 (0)

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-75-bps-to-300-as-expected-20221103/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Prior</a> 3.00%</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Bank rate vote 7-2 vs 9-0 expected (Tenreyro, Dhingra voted to keep rates unchanged at 3%, Mann voted to raise rates by 75 bps instead)</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Further increases in bank rate may be required</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Q4 GDP seen at -0.1% q/q (previously -0.3% in November)</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Statement details to follow..</li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Fed has Paused the BTC Rebound 0 (0)

<p>Market picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin
updated five-week highs above $18,300 on Wednesday but then fell along with
stock indices amid the Fed’s intention to raise rates higher and hold them
longer than markets had hoped.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The market
reaction to the Fed brought the price back to levels before the lift-off but
did not trigger a sustained decline yet. Bitcoin failed to close the day above
its 50-day moving average but continues to hover around that curve. A
consolidation above this line could spur additional demand.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 1 point to 31 by Thursday and
continues to be in a state of „fear“. Despite dropping 1.4%
overnight, the crypto market’s total capitalisation at 860bn has been near the
upper end of its trading range for more than a month.</p><p>News background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
CoinGesco, the number of cryptocurrencies in the BTC and Ethereum networks
reached historic highs following the collapse of FTX. The growth rate of large
asset holders has quadrupled compared to the annual average.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Goldman
Sachs said gold is a better asset diversifier than BTC as it is less volatile.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
Nansen, about $3 billion has been withdrawn from Binance in the last two days,
with user activity attributed to a „temporary suspension“ of
withdrawals in USDC.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In response
to the recent media attack, Tether, the issuer of USDT, said it would reduce
the collateralised credits in USDT reserves to zero over the next year.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>There is no
consensus among US regulators on cryptocurrencies. The Commodity Futures
Trading Commission (CFTC) has called bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT commodities in
a lawsuit against FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who faces up to 115 years in
prison.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market
Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

One in six people in Britain are worried about running out of food, keeping warm – survey 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Roughly 16% of people said that they were worried or very worried about their food running out before having money to buy more, with the situation already being a reality for 6% of those surveyed. Just to provide some background, the ONS survey was conducted between 22 November and 4 December and had 2,524 respondents.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Adding to that, some 23% of people said that they were unable to keep comfortably warm in their own homes. I reckon that in itself is a bad look for the rest of the winter considering how October has already been hotter than expected in Europe.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In terms of public discontent, 74% of people said that Britain’s society is „not as it should be“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>All of this will just continue to mount further pressure on the government to try and sort things out as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

USD/JPY bounce needs more work to extend higher 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes amid a broad rebound in the US dollar, stemming from the retreat in equities since the Fed yesterday. The dollar is seen up across the board today, posting solid gains as the bulls hope to make a comeback. In the case of USD/JPY, the 200-day moving average (blue line) is the key line that is being defended this week:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That has now seen buyers seize back near-term control, pushing back above the key near-term region highlighted earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-climbs-as-stocks-retreat-in-european-trading-20221215/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. So, the risk to any further upside move now is the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 136.27-40 before the 200-day moving average, seen at 135.44 currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That said, the recent bounces in the pair have failed to get above the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the downswing since October, seen at 137.94. As such, any upside momentum needs to clear that as well before buyers can feel comfortable of a move back towards 140.00 potentially.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As much as the dollar is getting a tailwind from softer sentiment in equities, the bond market will also need to play ball to vindicate any major rebound in USD/JPY in my view. For now, we’re not seeing that too much with 10-year Treasury yields up by just 0.5 bps on the day to 3.488% – lacking any real appetite ahead of US trading.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

SNB’s Jordan: Further rate hikes cannot be ruled out 0 (0)

<ul><li>Underlying inflation pressure has increased</li><li>Danger remains inflation could stay elevated</li><li>It is too early to sound the all clear</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>SNB will sell forex in future if appropriate, will also buy to check excessive appreciation pressure</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Some token remarks there by Jordan. For today’s decision, it is all about the fact that they just hiked by 50 bps instead of 75 bps – which some quarters of the market hoped for.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive