<p class=“MsoNormal“>This week will start
with some PMI surveys in the eurozone and the flash services PMI in the U.S. on
Monday, followed by the core CPI y/y in Japan and the CB consumer confidence
for the U.S. on Tuesday.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Wednesday will be a
busy day with the CPI q/q and trimmed mean CPI q/q prints in Australia; the
monetary policy report, overnight rate and BOC press conference in Canada; and
the new home sales data for the U.S. On Thursday, the main event will be the
ECB press conference and main refinancing rate and in the U.S. all eyes will be
on the unemployment claims.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The week will finish
off with the BOJ press conference and policy rate on Friday, along with the
core PCE price index m/m in the U.S.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The Q3 CPI q/q in
Australia is likely to print lower to 1.6% from 1.8% the previous quarter, but
the y/y rate is expected to run hot — 7.0% from 6.1%.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In Canada, the
consensus according to the Reuters survey was that the BOC will hike rates by
50bps, but the survey was conducted before the latest CPI data surprised on the
upside. Because of the new data, some analysts now expect the Bank to deliver a
rate hike by 75bps, which according to Scotiabank, has more or less been priced
in. Analysts will be watching this meeting for any clues about future rate
hikes.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In the U.S. the new
home sales are expected to see some slowdown due to high mortgage rates. The
housing market has been negatively impacted by rising rates overall and will
likely see further decline in the near future, despite a 30% increase in new
home sales in August, which was more likely a temporary relief from the overall
market downtrend. On Friday we will also get the data for pending home sales
which will provide clues about the demand conditions. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The ECB is expected
to hike the rate by 75bps this week and the market has already priced in an 80%
possibility. The economy in the euro area faces many challenges due to the
rising energy and commodity prices so the outlook for the euro is not very optimistic.
The ECB seems to be committed to fighting inflation despite the economic
condition and President Lagarde said that hikes will be spread out over the
next several meetings.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>ING analysts believe
it’s too early to talk about Quantitative Tightening (QT) but said „the
Bank will seek to mop up bank liquidity.“ The analysts think the things to
watch for in this ECB meeting are: the excess liquidity, quantitative
tightening and the terminal rate.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>No change is expected
at this week’s BOJ meeting and it’s clear that the Bank will leave FX
intervention in the government’s hands. The Bank will likely maintain the QQE
with Yield Curve Control to flexibly target 10yr JGBs at around 0%. The Bank’s
Outlook Report will also be released which will contain its members‘ forecasts
for the Real GDP and Core CPI and the expectation is that the CPI will increase
from the previous forecast of 2.3%.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In the U.S., the
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge
— is likely to rise. Wells Fargo expects PCE to rise at a 0.8% annualized pace
for the third quarter, up from the previous 0.6%. An increase in consumption
would translate to import growth as well. Equipment spending is expected to be
strong, but residential investment likely took a hit due to the higher mortgage
rates.</p><p>USD/CAD
expectations</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The pair closed the
week near the 1.3605 level of support. The CAD strengthened on Friday against
the USD, but overall, on the H1 chart the pair lacked a firm direction, but
rather moved in a range between 1.3650 and 1.3840. For this week it’s likely
we’ll see some choppy moves as well. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A risk for this pair
will be the BOC meeting and the U.S. GDP data for Q3. Expectations for the GDP
are encouraging as the consensus is for 2.1% SAAR. Strong data will support the
USD. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the H1 chart the
next levels of support are at 1.3605 and 1.3500. A move below 1.3500 likely
opens the path for some depreciation. On the upside we have the levels of
resistance at 1.3705, 1.3835 andthe 1.3970. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by Gina
Constantin.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The cost of the intervention on Friday last week is said to be around ¥5.4 trillion to ¥5.5 trillion. That’s roughly $36 billion and you would think that they probably spent quite a bit more on that today as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapped up the People’s Congress with a power move that vanquished his rivals and humiliated his predecessor.</p><p>The moves leave no doubt that he personally consolidated power at the event, which takes place every 5 years. It was already widely expected that he would be confirmed for another 5-year term — his third — but there were questions about how much influence reformists promoted by predecessor Hu Jintao would retain.</p><p>The answer: Virutally none.</p><p>Rivals Li Keqiang and Wang Yan were left off the policy setting Central Committee and ushered into retirement. But the coup-de-grace was a humiliating exit of Hu. There have long been reports that the 79-year-old Hu is in poor health, possibly suffereing from dementia, but to wait until after media were invited in only to escort him out was surely a power move.</p><p>Watch for yourself:</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“><p dir=“ltr“ lang=“en“>Early drama: Hu Jintao seen being led out soon after reporters are led into the main hall <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/pRffGZF60I“>pic.twitter.com/pRffGZF60I</a></p>— Danson Cheong (@dansoncj) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/dansoncj/status/1583663702896967680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>October 22, 2022</a></blockquote><p> As Iam Bremmer put it, here is the message:</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>MON: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Oct)TUE: NBH Announcement, German Ifo Survey (Oct), US CaseShiller (Oct)WED: BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Australian CPI (Q3), US Adv Goods Trade BalanceTHU: ECB Announcement, South Korean GDP (Q3), German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Oct), German Flash CPI (Oct), US GDP Adv (Q3) and PCE (Q3)FRI: CBR Announcement, BoJ Announcement, Japanese Jobs Report (Q3), Australian PPI (Q3), German Flash GDP (Q3), EZ Sentiment Survey (Oct), US PCE (Sep)</p><p>NOTE: Previews are listed in day-orderTORY LEADERSHIP RACE: Following the resignation of Truss as PM after just 44 days in office, an accelerated leadership contest to appoint a new Conservative leader and by extension PM has been called. In an effort to have a new leader in place before the October 31st budget, an event that is itself a point of uncertainty, the format is slightly different to the usual process. Around 14:00BST on Monday, the first and potentially only round of voting will occur with the threshold to progress set at 100/357; as such, only a maximum of three candidates can progress to this point. If there are three candidates, Tory MPs will hold a knockout vote with the MP receiving the fewest votes eliminated. Either way, when it is whittled down to two members this is put to an online ballot of broader Conservative members to determine the next PM, results expected Friday. For reference, if only one candidate gets 100 backers, then they are immediately declared PM. As it stands, it looks like it is going to be a contest between Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt; though, bear in mind no candidate has officially declared they are standing just yet. For reference, bookmakers have Sunak in the lead while Johnson is seen as the favoured candidate among grassroots members.EZ FLASH PMIS (MON): Expectations are for the manufacturing metric to fall to 48.0 from 48.4, services to drop to 48.2 from 48.8, leaving the composite at 47.6 vs. prev. 48.1. The prior report saw the composite PMI decline to 48.1 in September from 48.9 in August. Accordingly, S&P Global noted that “Business activity has now deteriorated for three successive months, indicating falling GDP, with the rate of decline gathering momentum over the third quarter”. This time around, analysts at Investec note that “there has been little in the way of major developments to reverse the current sentiment. As such we expect October’s PMI to remain in contractionary territory, in line with our view that the eurozone is in for a difficult winter, with a mild recession our central case”. From a market perspective, the release will likely play second-fiddle to the ECB policy announcement later in the week which is expected to see policymakers pull the trigger on an additional 75bps hike (see below for further details). That said, a markedly weak report could see traders dial back some expectations for action from the ECB later in the year and early 2023 as the harsh reality of a tough winter for the bloc becomes more visible in the data.UK FLASH PMIS (MON): Expectations are for the services metric to fall to 49.0 from 50.0, manufacturing to weaken to 47.9 from 48.4, leaving the composite at 48.2 vs. prev. 49.1. The prior report saw the composite metric fall to 49.1 from 59.6 with S&P Global noting that „September data highlighted an absence of growth in the UK service sector for the first time in 19 months as the energy crisis continued to hit business and consumer spending”. The October release is not expected to provide much in the way of encouragement given the political turmoil seen in the wake of ex-Chancellor Kwarteng’s “mini-budget” which prompted a surge in borrowing costs. Although some of the impact of this was mitigated following the appointment of Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor who essentially tore up Kwarteng’s plans, concerns remain over political stability in the UK and public finances amid a GBP 40bln hole that needs to be plugged. From a policy perspective, the BoE is widely expected to deliver a 75bps hike at its November 3rd meeting following Chancellor Hunt’s fiscal plan due on October 31st (this could be pushed back amid the ongoing Conservative leadership contest). Given the gravitas of these two events, any traction in UK assets following the PMI release is likely to be fleeting.NBH ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): The NBH is expected to keep its Base Rate unchanged at 13.00%, after hiking by 125bps in September vs the split consensus between 75bp and 100bp heading into the gathering. October’s decision is expected to be unchanged following guidance from the NBH after the last meeting that it has concluded the tightening cycle and policy can be held for a prolonged period as the Bank turns its attention to liquidity and transmission. The subsequent minutes made clear that the decision to keep the Base Rate on hold following September’s hike had the full support of rate-setters, in keeping with the unanimous decision to end with a 125bp hike. Since then, the Bank has undertaken liquidity-draining operations – a narrative that will be in focus for the upcoming meeting for guidance around the intended scope of such action.BOC ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The Bank of Canada is expected to hike rates by 50bps at its October meeting, according to the latest Reuters survey, which was conducted before the September CPI data. Money markets, in wake of CPI, are now leaning towards a 75bp hike with a 70% probability – so it is a close one for either a 50bp or another 75bp hike. The Economists surveyed by Reuters saw 27/30 expect a 50bp hike while the remaining three expect a 75bp hike. The latest CPI data was hotter than expected on all fronts with Y/Y rising 6.9% (exp. 6.8%) but decelerating from the prior 7.0% while the M/M rose 0.1%, hotter than the expected unchanged print. The Core Y/Y rose 6.0%, accelerating from the prior 5.8% while the M/M rose 0.4%, accelerating from the unchanged reading in August. The average of the BoC-eyed measures also ticked up. The inflation report saw a hawkish move in market pricing with Canadian interest rate futures now implying a 75% chance of a 75bp hike next week, vs a 30% probability before the hot inflation. Recent commentary from Governor Macklem noted if the recent CAD depreciation against the Dollar persists, we are going to have to do more work on interest rates. Looking ahead, the terminal rate is expected to reach 4.25% in Canada, up from the prior 3.50% in the prior Reuters poll with nearly all respondents saying risks are skewed towards a higher peak rate. However, since the inflation data, money markets are currently pricing a peak rate of around 4.50% in April, up from the prior 4.33% ahead of the data. It is also worth noting the Fed is widely expected to hike by another 75bps in November, and given Macklem’s commentary on the FX rate, coupled with rising inflation expectations in the BoC Business Outlook survey, and hot inflation data, the argument has been building for a 75bp hike. ING also suggests a further 75bp hike, given the upside in inflation, is the most likely outcome. However, it is worth highlighting the latest business outlook survey was quite somber, noting business confidence has softened and most think a domestic recession is likely within 12 months while many are expecting slower sales growth as rates increase and demand slows.BCB ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The Brazilian Central Bank is expected to maintain the Selic Rate at 13.75% again. The last meeting saw the Bank keep rates unchanged, however the vote was not unanimous and was a 7-2 split decision, with the two dissenters opting for a 25bp hike. The decision to keep rates unchanged reflected uncertainty about scenarios for prospective inflation, higher than usual variance in the balance of risks and as it „is consistent with the strategy for inflation convergence to a level around its target throughout the relevant horizon for monetary policy, which includes 2023 and, to a lesser extent, 2024″. The statement also saw the BCB note that it will not hesitate to resume the tightening cycle if the disinflationary process does not proceed as expected. Analysts at Credit Suisse look for the rate to be unchanged and for the Bank to put emphasis on the guidance that leaving the rate unchanged is consistent with inflation returning to target, while it also expects the BCB to maintain language about its readiness to resume tightening if required. Looking ahead, the desk sees the Selic Rate at 13.75% until September 2023, falling to 11.50% by end-2023 and 8.5% at the end of 2024. However, it acknowledges this outcome depends on the fiscal framework by the next administration with the runoff election due at the end of the month.AUSTRALIAN CPI (WED): Q3 CPI Q/Q is expected to cool to 1.6% from 1.8%, but the Y/Y rate is expected to pick up to 7.0% from 6.1%. In terms of the Trimmed Mean figures, Q/Q is seen matching the prior quarter at 1.5%, but the Y/Y measure is expected to rise to 5.6% from 4.9%, whilst the Weighted Mean Q/Q is expected at 1.5% vs the prior 1.4%, and the Y/Y at 4.9% against the previous quarter’s 4.2%. The release also comes amid the recent introduction of the monthly CPI metrics by the ABS, and although desks suggest there are some issues with converting the monthly metrics to a quarterly print, it is the closest guide. For example, desks suggest electricity prices are only measured in the last month of each quarter, thus the Monthly CPI Indicator will not provide an update on electricity prices. Westpac believes “This is a significant issue in September due not just to the reported significant increase in power bills but also the various state government electricity rebates…Without the rebates we estimate electricity prices would have lifted a bit more than 8% in the quarter contributing 0.22ppt to the CPI.” The Bank expects a 1.1% Q/Q reading for the September quarter with the Y/Y at 6.5%.ECB ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): With headline Y/Y HICP in September advancing to 9.9% from 9.1% and the core metric rising to 6.0% from 5.5%, policymakers are set to deliver another outsized rate hike following a 75bps increase in September. According to a Reuters survey, 27/36 expect the Deposit Rate to be raised by a further 75bps to 1.5%, 7/36 look for 50bps and just 2/36 forecast 25bps. In terms of market pricing, a 75bps hike is priced at around 80% and a 50bps increase at 20%. Beyond inflationary developments, growth concerns are continuing to mount in the Eurozone with the composite PMI metric declining to 48.1 in September from 48.9 in August. Accordingly, S&P Global noted that “Business activity has now deteriorated for three successive months, indicating falling GDP, with the rate of decline gathering momentum over the third quarter”. Nonetheless, with the ECB’s 5y5y inflation expectations measure rising to around 2.3% from circa 2.2% at the time of the prior meeting, policymakers will be forced to raise rates again this month with President Lagarde recently noting that hikes will be carried out over the course of the next “several meetings”. In terms of other measures to be mindful of, source reporting on 13th October suggested that the GC discussed the timeline for the balance sheet reduction at the Cyprus meeting earlier this month. The report noted that the language regarding reinvestments could be tweaked at the October meeting, before outlining plans for a balance sheet reduction in December or February and then commencing QT sometime in Q2 2023. Elsewhere, the upcoming meeting could see policymakers alter the terms of its TLTROs given that banks can currently park cash from operations at the ECB and earn a risk-free profit following recent rate hikes. Market participants will also be looking for how committed to further rate hikes the Bank is given recent reporting suggesting that an ECB staff model puts the target-consistent terminal rate at 2.25%. That said, the report noted that policymakers were sceptical over the accuracy of the model. As a guide, markets currently see the peak deposit rate at around 3% by late Q2/early Q3 next year.CBR ANNOUNCEMENT (FRI): The Russian Central Bank is expected to hold rates at 7.5% at its October policy meeting, following a 50bps cut last time when the accompanying statement no longer mentioned further rate reductions. Further within the prior release, CBR said inflation expectations of households and price expectations of businesses remain elevated, which has since been reiterated by the Deputy Governor as has the annual inflation forecast of 11-13% in 2022. Since the last meeting, the Deputy Governor has noted the decline in inflation may now be slower than previously thought, but the neutral rate remains at 5-6%, something which Governor Nabiullina echoed in wake of the meeting. Looking ahead, the CBR official noted the central bank will make further rate decisions based on the economic situation and balance of risks, and it will refine forecasts in October with an improved GDP estimate. Further on inflation, the government decided to bring forward the hike in utility prices for households to December ‘22 from July ‘23, doubling the size of the indexation to ~9%, and as such JPMorgan thinks “this should add around 0.6%-pt to CPI by the end of the year and might have marginal secondary effects through higher cost inflation and higher inflation expectations.” As a result, JPM lifted its year-end inflation forecast to 12.9% from 12.0% previously.BOJ ANNOUNCEMENT (FRI): The Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its monetary policy settings next week with the central bank likely to keep rates at -0.10% and stick to QQE with Yield Curve Control to flexibly target 10yr JGBs at around 0%. The central bank will also release its latest Outlook Report containing board members’ median forecasts for Real GDP and Core CPI, which the Japanese press noted will include an increase in the current fiscal year CPI forecast to the high-end of 2% from the prior 2.3% view. However, rhetoric from the BoJ firmly suggests an unwillingness to tighten policy as Governor Kuroda has stated that the pace of Japan’s economic recovery is still slow so the BoJ must continue supporting the economy and that raising rates now is inappropriate in light of economic and price conditions. BoJ’s Adachi also recently warned that they must be cautious about shifting towards monetary tightening as downside risks to the economy are increasing and such a shift would weaken demand and heighten the risk that Japan will revert to deflation, while the central bank’s decision to extend its pandemic relief program at the last meeting also attests to the BoJ’s lack of appetite for normalisation. The latest key data releases add to the case for maintaining easy monetary policy as the BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey showed sentiment amongst large manufacturers worsened, while Machinery Orders and Household Spending also disappointed. Conversely, inflation remains above the 2% target and recently printed its highest since 2014 at 3.0%, but is unlikely to trigger a policy reaction as the central bank has acknowledged that price increases are being driven by rises in energy costs and raw materials, as well as anticipating inflation to slow down to below target levels during the next fiscal year once the impact of energy and fuel costs begin to wane. Furthermore, the recent rapid depreciation in the JPY is unlikely to spur an adjustment to monetary policy with the central bank seemingly comfortable to leave FX intervention to the government, while it even upped the amounts of its bond purchases and conducted unscheduled operations to defend its yield cap which is further evidence of its unwavering dovish stance.</p><p>This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/?utm_source=forexlive&utm_medium=research&utm_campaign=partner-post&utm_content=weekly“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Get a 7-day free trial</a>.</p>

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-daly-we-can-easily-find-ourselves-overtightening-20221021/“>Fed’s Daly: We can easily find ourselves overtightening</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/timiraos-fed-barreling-toward-a-75-bps-hike-in-november-20221021/“>Timiraos: Fed ‚barreling toward‘ a 75 bps hike in November</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-august-retail-sales-07-vs-02-expected-20221021/“>Canada August retail sales +0.7% vs +0.2% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-us-oil-rigs-2-to-612-20221021/“>Baker Hughes US oil rigs +2 to 612</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bullard-i-want-rates-that-put-significant-downward-pressure-on-inflation-20221021/“>Fed’s Bullard: I want rates that put significant downward pressure on inflation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japans-kanda-we-would-not-comment-on-intervention-even-if-we-had-done-it-20221021/“>Japan’s Kanda: We would not comment on intervention even if we had done it</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-evans-we-will-need-to-raise-rates-further-and-hold-them-for-awhile-20221021/“>Fed’s Evans: We will need to raise rates further and hold them for awhile</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-oct-flash-consumer-confidence-276-vs-300-expected-20221021/“>Eurozone Oct flash consumer confidence -27.6 vs -30.0 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/penny-morduant-confirms-shes-running-to-replace-liz-truss-20221021/“>Penny Morduant confirms she’s running to replace Liz Truss</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-set-russia-oil-price-cap-above-60-20221021/“>US may set Russia oil price cap above $60</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $27 to $1654</li><li>US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.22%</li><li>WTI crude oil up 48-cents to $84.99</li><li>S&P 500 up 88 points to 3754</li><li>JPY and AUD lead, USD lags</li></ul><p>This week had it all and a good portion of it unwound today. We looked like we were going to get the 13th straight day of USD/JPY gains after the BOJ signaled no change in policy by expanding bond purchases. That kicked off a spike to 151.94 but the turn came when the Fed appeared to plant a WSJ story downplaying the odds of another 75 bps hike in December.</p><p>There was a blip in USD/JPY at the same time that might have been the start of Japanese intervention. It also kicked off a recovery in equities and cap in yields, especially at the short end.</p><p>What had been a trickle turned into a flood with some surprisingly dovish signals from some-time Powell mouthpiece Mary Daly, who is the President of the SF Fed. She indicated that 4.50-5.00% is still the Fed top, despite the market trying to price in another hike. Around the same time, the MOF came in with the hammer, intervening in USD/JPY and sending the pair lower by more than 400 pips.</p><p>The combination of dovish signals and FX intervention kicked off a rout on the US dollar with the pound reversing heavy losses despite the political turmoil. The euro and commodity currencies also staged large reversals.</p><p>May Fed funds now price 4.87%, down from 5.03% on Wednesday and the front end of the Treasury curve rallied alongside an impressive day for equities. It’s clearly a market that just wants a bit of certainty from the Fed before putting some money to work.</p><p>The weekly gains in stocks were the largest since late June with the S&P 500 up 4.7% with half of that today.</p><p>Have a wonderful and restful weekend because next week kicks off a wild run of central bank decisions.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>On the day:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 up 91 points to 3766, or 2.5%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp +2.3%</li><li>Russell 2000 +2.3%</li><li>DJIA +2.5%</li><li>Toronto TSX +1.5%</li></ul><p>On the week:</p><ul><li></li><li>S&P 500 +4.7%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp +5.2%</li><li>DJIA +4.9%</li></ul><p>This is a nice daily candle but it will need to get above the October 18 with earnings set to pick up.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>Bank of America’s fund manager survey released this month said US dollar longs were the most-crowded trade on the planet.</p><p>When that kind of thing unwinds, this is what it looks like. </p><p>US dollar longs are scrambling to the sidelines at the moment after Daly indicated no plan to hike more aggressively. The S&P 500 is now up 2.5% on the day.</p><p>In terms of FX, cable is up 62 pips to 1.1296 from a low of 1.1061 in a powerful turn.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>Bloomberg <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/us-eyes-russia-oil-cap-above-60-in-bid-to-keep-supply-flowing?leadSource=uverify%20wall“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>reports </a>that the US may aim to set the Russian oil price cap above $60 per barrel. That’s higher than previously the $40-60 range previously signaled.</p><p>I’m starting to get the sense that the White House is looking for any kind of win it can get with this hair-brained idea.</p><p>WTI crude oil futures settled up 54-cents to $85.05 today after falling as low as $83.15. Oil turned when the US dollar reversed and finishes the week down about 50-cents.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Exact stance of policy will depend on outlook and risks</li><li>Economic data has been mixed</li><li>Labor market remains strong</li><li>Seeing signs that some of the unusual strength in labor markets may be waning</li><li>Personal forecast is broadly in line with Fed September projections</li></ul><p>There’s no clear signal here but, if anything, the comment about the Sept projections is in line with what Daly was saying earlier.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I don’t think much else needs to be said at this point. The lack of any intervention signals from Japan officials today is seeing USD/JPY buyers whet their appetite for a push higher. The pair is now up nearly 1% to 151.50 levels, reaching fresh highs in 32 years.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As mentioned earlier, there’s a long way to go before the 1990 highs at 160.40 so that leaves plenty of room to roam to the upside. The only thing to be wary about is intervention play. But as the fundamentals remain unchanged, the MOF and BOJ themselves have to be wary as every attempt that they will set out from here will lose effectiveness over time.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.