<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the sellers failed to break decisively the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 32684 on the first try.
This may be just a pullback before more economic data confirms the new
downtrend. </p><p>We got some bearish stuff in the
past days with the “prices paid” sub-index in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report showing a jump back into expansion and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-waller-fomc-may-need-to-raise-rates-beyond-decembers-51-54-central-tendency-view-20230302/“>Fed’s
Waller</a> yesterday signalling that the Fed will go above their projected
terminal rate if the data keeps coming in strong. </p><p>Today we will have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and if that beats
expectations, especially in the “prices” sub-index, then we should see the
support breaking and more selling pressure coming in going forward. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been consolidating near the support as the market awaits
more economic data before confirming the bearish trend. </p><p>On the upside, we may see the
buyers pushing the price into the 33538 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> where we can also find 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level, but that looks unlikely unless today’s
report misses expectations. On the downside, we should see the sellers jumping
in strongly in case the report beats expectations with a breakout of the
support at 32684 very likely. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the more near-term price action. The buyers may manage to get to the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level before the PMI report which would act a strong
resistance and would be a gift for the sellers if the data beats expectations.
On the downside, more aggressive sellers may also enter at the breakout of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> in expectation that the support
won’t hold. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I don’t think we are going get much answers to that in European trading today. However, it certainly is a key spot to watch before the weekend and later in US trading – especially with the ISM services index in focus. 10-year yields in the US are down about 6 bps now to near 4.00% and that threatens to erase the jump higher yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In turn, this is seeing equities stay slightly more upbeat on the session and is continuing to keep the dollar lower on the day. USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 136.20 now in a steady drop from 136.65 after the handover from Asia.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>USD vs the Israeli shekel during demonstrations</p><p>Several rallies and demonstrations have occurred in Israel in recent years, and the latest disturbances look to be lowering the shekel. While it is difficult to measure the impact of social unrest on currency exchange rates, there are several elements that influence the value of a currency. In this post, we will study how the demonstrations are influencing the shekel and evaluate the historical tendencies throughout moments of social turmoil in Israel.Protests in Israel are now focused on a a possible judicial reform that the protestors claim is hurting democracy. But it is hard to define how much of this specifically has weakened the shekel among other factors such as the general strengthening of the dollar, or Israel’s central bank raising rates, or other economic factors relating to Israel. Still, it is common belief within Israel that the latest protests are not helping the shekel, to say the least. Here is a quick technical analysis of the USD vs the ILS in the past 9 weeks of unrest.</p><p>Israeli shekel vs the US dollar: A technical analysis since the 1st judicial reform demonstration</p><p>What happened to the shekel in past social unrests?</p><p>The shekel originally fell during the COVID-19 epidemic as investors grew more risk-averse and retreated from emerging nations like as Israel. But, as Israel’s vaccination effort continued and the country was viewed as a pioneer in handling the epidemic, the shekel rose and hit its best level in more than a decade versus the US dollar. But, with the latest demonstrations, the shekel appears to be weakening once more.Looking back on the 2011 social justice rallies, the shekel first fell against major currencies as investors grew increasingly hesitant to engage in the Israeli economy. However, the shekel recovered later in the year, as the demonstrations had no substantial political or economic consequences.Protests against corruption and the government in 2018-2019 had little influence on the shekel because the political environment remained relatively steady throughout this period. Nevertheless, as the corruption charges against Netanyahu grew and eventually to his resignation from power in 2021, the shekel’s value fluctuated.While demonstrations and social unrest can add to market volatility and uncertainty, their impact on the Israeli shekel is often limited and impacted by a variety of other variables such as global economic circumstances, political events, and monetary policy choices. Yet, the current demonstrations appear to be having a bigger influence on the shekel, and it will be intriguing to observe how the situation develops in the future.Finally, societal disturbance, such as the current riots in Israel, may have a big influence on a country’s currency exchange rates. While it is difficult to forecast how the demonstrations will eventually effect the shekel, investors and traders should be attentive and keep a watch on the situation as it unfolds. </p><p>Visit <a target=“_blank“ href=“www.forexlive.com“>ForexLive.com</a> for additional views.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see the price is slowly approaching the major broken downward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a>. That is something the buyers
are watching and hoping for the level to hold, but the sentiment is
increasingly turning bearish. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are pointing south and yesterday we got some bad news in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report where the “prices paid” sub-index jumped
back into expansion and triggered more worries about another inflationary wave
and a more hawkish Fed. For now, the market is in a “sell the rallies” mode.</p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the price is <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> coming into the major trendline.
That is a sign of weaker momentum and it may be caused by the buyers fighting
hard the sellers as a breakout lower may trigger a bigger selloff. </p><p>The
moving averages have acted nicely as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> for the bearish trend and we can
expect them to continue to do so as long as the economic data keeps coming in
strong. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that if we were to get a pullback, the price is likely to come back to the
trendline and the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The sellers will start to pile in there as
the risk will be defined. </p><p>Tomorrow we have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and that’s another key
economic report that the market will be focused on. Strong readings, especially
on the prices side, should lead to another selloff, while weak numbers should
give the buyers some relief and lead to a more positive sentiment. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After the early bids in the dollar to start the session, things have been fairly calmer in European trading today. The hotter core inflation reading in the Eurozone CPI report did push regional bond yields higher for a brief period, before easing a little. 10-year German bond yields moved to 2.76% before retreating back to 2.72% now, just marginally higher on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That said, 10-year Treasury yields are still holding above the 4% mark – now seen at 4.02% – and that is enough to keep the dollar underpinned. USD/JPY did saw a pushback against its key technical level <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-looks-for-further-upside-correction-on-higher-yields-20230302/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> to 136.25 but is now trading back up by 0.4% to 136.70 on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The momentum is still mostly in the dollar’s favour, with equities still struggling. S&P 500 futures are down 13 points, or 0.3%, but it must be said that it was down by as much as 31 points earlier in the session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Still, the dollar is higher across the board with EUR/USD down 0.3% to 1.0630 – just above the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/fx-option-expiries-for-10am-new-york-cut-20230302/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>large option expiries</a> today. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.4% to 1.1980 after testing key levels outlined <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/gbpusd-faces-pressure-at-key-technical-levels-once-again-20230302/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. Against the antipodeans, AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6732 while NZD/USD is down 0.6% to 0.6225 at the moment.</p><p>For now, the bond market remains in charge and we’ll have to see if that hold above 4% in 10-year Treasury yields can stay the course through to US trading later.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Technical uptrend shows natural gas has been ripping lately </p><p>For the past week, natural gas futures have been on a tear, climbing 35% in that time, and continuing to gain steam, currently up 32% after eight trading days. Even yet, an hourly technical analysis suggests we may be at the brink of a formation of a bearish trend.</p><p>In spite of the fact that the market is still moving upwards within a channel, a bear flag is forming and resistance is slanted in a negative direction. The bear flag’s four upward pushes and subsequent plunge near the flag’s bottom band suggest a bearish breakdown is possible, but others may disagree with this interpretation.Betting on a breakdown of the bear flag and taking a short position is warranted due to the favorable reward-to-risk ratio. channels like the one shown in the 1 hour timframe in the NG technical analysis video, can be plotted on charts to help traders decide where to place trades. Keep in mind, though, that this is just a starting point; any trades made based on it will be done so at your own risk.Those who want more evidence can wait for a probable breakdown, then wait for a retest, and then take the short position. If the retest is finished and the market starts moving down again, even to half way, the bearish trend is likely to continue.If the bearish trend persists, traders can profit by locking in a profit just above the February 28 low, moving their stop loss down, and locking in another profit after a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.35. The most recent high can be used to set a stop order, giving the short roughly a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio on the entire position. More aspiring traders can go for more than 6.5 reward vs. risk ratios as shown in the video.All things considered, traders should keep a sharp eye on the market for signs of a bearish breakdown. As always, trade at your own risk and visit <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis“>ForexLive.com technical analysis</a> for additional views.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market Picture</p><p>Cryptocurrency
market capitalisation fell 1.2% overnight to $1.07 trillion. This level has
been the focus of attention since Sunday, reflecting the consolidation of the
participant’s strengths. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is back in the
50s. </p><p>Since
January, periods of greed are alternating with a neutral
sentiment, not fear.</p><p>Bitcoin
continues to find support as it falls to 23k, an impressive result amid falling
markets and a stronger dollar. The first cryptocurrency remains virtually
unchanged, effectively fighting off the strong headwinds that pushed the
Nasdaq100 back five weeks ago.</p><p>Significant
signal levels on the way down for Bitcoin appear to be around $22.7K, where the
50-day moving average and the local lows from late last week are concentrated.
If this support fails to hold, the next major stop is not expected until
$21.5K, negating February’s bullish momentum.</p><p>Ethereum is
sandwiched between resistance in the 50-week average (near $1690) and the
50-day average (near $1600). A bearish victory in this local battle could
trigger a quick pullback to $1400.</p><p>Background news</p><p>France is
set to tighten licensing rules for cryptocurrency companies. The country’s
lower house of parliament has approved a set of new regulations for the
licensing and registration of cryptocurrency companies. If the bill is passed,
the changes will take effect from July 2023.</p><p>Major
stablecoin issuers, united in the Stablecoin Standard group, have announced
work to create a common set of standards to increase consumer confidence in
digital assets.</p><p>The Gamium
blockchain project’s GMM token surged 650% after it announced a partnership
with Meta and Telefonica as part of the Metaverse Activation Programme
initiative. The joint programme between the giants aims to empower and scale
startups in the Metaverse and Web3 space.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -13.3%</li><li>Market index vs 199.8 prior</li><li>Purchase index vs 147.1 prior</li><li>Refinance index vs 469.9 prior</li><li>30-year mortgage rate % vs 6.62% prior</li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the market has switched to a downtrend as depicted by the cross to the
downside of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a>. The sellers are in control, but the buyers have been fighting quite
hard lately as the momentum to the downside has been fading due to the market
awaiting March economic data to see if the February data was just a blip due to
seasonal factors or the Fed has indeed slowed its rate hike cycle too early. </p><p>Gold is sensitive to the
direction of real yields as when those go up the price of gold generally falls
and vice versa. The market repricing higher interest rates weighed on gold due
to hot economic data in February, so if we keep getting strong economic reports
in March, gold is likely to fall further. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the selling momentum was fading going into March as depicted by the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>divergence</a> between the price and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>. It will be crucial now to watch
the economic data, because technically the price now can rally all the way up
to the 1902 level as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> was breached. </p><p>The moving averages have also
crossed to the upside signalling a change in the short-term trend. Today we
have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Manufacturing PMI</a> and if the report comes out
strong, then this upward move from yesterday may have been just a fakeout, but
if the data misses expectations, we should see another rally. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the breakout from yesterday. The red long period moving
average and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1828/1830 will be the last
line of defence for the buyers. If the price falls below the trendline and the
support zone, then the breakout would translate into a fakeout and a bigger
selloff should follow. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Against the dollar, the pound briefly erased its gains for the day in a fall to 1.2013, before keeping around 1.2040 levels now – still up 0.2% on the day. But against the rest of the major currencies bloc, the pound is now the other laggard after Bailey’s remarks <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-bailey-further-rate-hikes-may-be-appropriate-but-nothing-is-decided-20230301/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. The bounce in GBP/USD was also perhaps more technical, with buyers holding at the key hourly moving averages:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is seen up 0.7% now to 0.8855 while GBP/JPY is falling back under its key daily moving averages, down 0.2% to 163.29 at the moment. For some context, the latter traded to as high as 164.50 earlier in the session.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.