<p>The price of WTI <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/c/crude-oil/“ target=“_blank“ id=“e1f1b115-23d2-48c8-98c8-24024dada457_2″ class=“terms__main-term“>crude oil</a> settles at $88.96. That was up $2.49 or 2.88% on the day. </p><p>For the trading week, the price a week closed on Friday at $92.44. The price is down -3.75% on the week and was the first decline after two weeks of gains of 3.7% and 4.71% over those weeks. </p><p>In other news today, the Baker Hughes </p><ul><li>rig count rose by 9 to a total of 779. </li><li>The oil rigs increased by 9 to 622. </li><li>Natural gas was unchanged at 155</li></ul><p>Fundamentally, the price of oil was supported by hopes of further easing of Covid restrictions in China.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>The S&P index has reached an intraday high at 4000.08. That is the first trade at that level since September 13. THe next target is the 61.8% of the move down from the August high at 4006.81. Above that and the key 200 day MA at 4081.08 will be eyed.</p><p>For the trading week, the S&P is up 6.0% which is the largest gain since 6.45% during the week of June 21. The S&P was up 6.58% during the week of May 23, and 6.16% during the week of March 14. .</p><p>The Dow industrial average is trading up around 30 points or 0.09%. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/n/nasdaq/“ target=“_blank“ id=“73ea5227-7971-4d75-a878-f20ede81c27e_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>NASDAQ</a> index is leading the way with a 222 point rise or 2.01% at 11338.71.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>Coinbase global says it will write off investment its ventures arm made in FTX. </p><ul><li>Coinbase will participate in FTX bankruptcy proceedings to seek a claim hundred $15 million in deposits at the exchange</li><li>Exposure to FTX is not material to its balance sheet </li></ul><p>Coinbase is also saying that FTX has ceased processing withdrawals around midday Friday.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The latest notes out of BofA says that we are now in the transition period from the 2022 bear narrative, that was encapsulated by „inflation shock, rates shock, recession shock“, and moving on to the 2023 bull narrative, which is „peak CPI, peak Fed, peak yields, and peak US dollar“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In other words, we are heading into the sunset days of the tightening cycle by major central banks – at least in terms of what is being priced in. That’s a massive endorsement for risk trades, at least on paper.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But I think a question that needs to be addressed is what happens if inflation doesn’t just peak and fall, but instead it peaks and just plateaus at a high level? The market’s appetite for greed hinges a lot on the relief that inflation isn’t getting any worse but is it enough to sustain a more optimistic outlook if we don’t see a material fall in consumer prices back towards 2%?</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pair was already looking vulnerable but we are starting to see things pick up now with a break below 140.00 and that marks a big psychological blow for buyers, who have held on to a more bullish outlook in the pair for the longest time.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This is the first time since the start of September that the pair has traded below 140.00 and the technical picture doesn’t look pretty whatsoever:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>A fall back towards 135.00 is easily on the cards and we might even course correct towards the 200-day moving average next (blue line), considering how long it has been since the last meaningful technical correction in the pair.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Does not know if inflation has reached a turning point to move lower</li><li>Fed has made clear that it will continue to raise rates</li><li>Future monetary policy path up to the Fed</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With the headline remark, it seems like only Fed speakers will be the ones to be able to pour cold water on this relief rally. Yellen also adds that she will be meeting with PBOC governor, Yi Gang, on the sidelines at the G20 Summit in Bali to discuss on economic developments.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Efforts to bring inflation under control likely to take between 18 months to 2 years</li><li>Hopeful that inflation would peak over the winter</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>He still sounds optimistic but with Q3 GDP shrinking and a recession already in the works, the central bank has a tough job ahead of them to balance tightening policy further amid a flailing economy.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But considering the better risk appetite in markets, Treasuries would also be bid if they were trading today. 10-year yields dropped to 3.81% yesterday, its lowest in over a month, and in a period where USD/JPY is staying lockstep with the bond market, the pair is also coming under pressure after the softer US CPI data yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After a modest bounce at the 100-day moving average (red line) since last night, the pair is now back down to the lows for the day and testing the key level again – seen at 140.77. Keep below that and the pressure will be on for sellers to try and take a run towards the 140.00 mark next. As mentioned earlier:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“It’s all about the pressure on the 100-day moving average at 140.77 at the moment. If sellers can break through that, the 140.00 mark comes into play next and that will be an especially crucial level to watch. If buyers are unable to hold the line there, we can easily see a much deeper correction back towards the 200-day moving average (blue line), seen at 132.73 currently, in a quick move.“</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>The US dollar is higher across the board in the countdown to CPI.</p><p>Yesterday, the strong dollar foreshadowed a rout in risk assets but I’m not (yet) sure that’s what we’re also seeing today. It does warrant some caution.</p><p>The Eurozone data calendar was basically vacant so far today except for a mixed Italian industrial production report so the moves are primarily a follow-through from yesterday.</p><p>In any case, CPI could quickly upend the narrative. This one is a particularly important report with the market no longer feeling confident that 5% will be the Fed’s top. The consensus is +8.0% y/y on the headline and +6.5% y/y on the core. </p><p>Risks are two sided with any kind of miss likely to spark a big reaction in risk assets. Dollar longs are a crowded trade so you wouldn’t expect to see strength into the report but that’s what is happening and, I think reflects lingering fallout from yesterday’s risk rout and the ongoing disaster in crypto.</p><p>h/t <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/BeaglierCap/status/1590611613933252608?t=FiNlKtBfzB-_iMP8-GWDSQ&s=03″ role=“link“ tabindex=“-1″ class=“css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-1dbjc4n r-1loqt21 r-1wbh5a2 r-dnmrzs r-1ny4l3l“>@BeaglierCap</a> for the meme.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a cautious bias on GBP in the near-term.</p><p>“The GBP has become a far less volatile currency since the election
of PM Rishi Sunak: the currency has settled to trade in relatively tight
ranges vs both the USD and the EUR of late. Abating UK
sovereign credit risks, receding Brexit fears and easing UK financial
conditions could continue to push GBP volatility lower in the very near
term. The latest developments should not mean that the GBP is out of
woods just yet, however. Indeed, we think that the very weak UK
economic outlook would be made even worse by the aggressive fiscal
austerity measures that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will announce next week,“
CACIB notes.</p><p>“In the near term, however, the prospect for a sharp
economic downturn could mean that the BoE would disappoint the still
relatively hawkish market rate hike expectations. We therefore maintain a cautious outlook on the GBP,“ CACIB adds. </p><p>Barclays Research is also cautious in the near term but thinks the pound’s range against the euro will hold.</p><p>“GBP received little support from the BoE last week which yet again
pushed against what they see as excessive market pricing. Accordingly, the recent 0.86-0.89 range will likely continue to define the sterling path versus the EUR in the near-term,“ Barclays notes. </p><p>“We expect 3Q GDP to print at – 0.5% q/q, echoing the Bank’s forecast.
This week, however, we expect GBP to be more driven by the broad
dollar, with focus on US CPI. While near-term China reopening signals
will bring pause in the broad dollar, the gloomy outlook and the
monetary divergence still caps sterling from a long-term perspective,“
Barclays adds. </p><p>For bank trade ideas, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD“ rel=“nofollow“ target=“_blank“ data-saferedirecturl=“https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&source=gmail&ust=1668167234677000&usg=AOvVaw1evnAzczmYeBXIOSdSnnEu“>check out eFX Plus</a>. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD“ rel=“nofollow“ target=“_blank“ data-saferedirecturl=“https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&source=gmail&ust=1668167234677000&usg=AOvVaw1evnAzczmYeBXIOSdSnnEu“>Get it here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.