Kategorie-Archiv: Forex News
Oil scores yet-another daily and weekly gain
The volume and speculative trading is all in July now but that was higher as well, up $43-cents to $110.23.
I feel like I’m beating a dead horse at this point but the resilience in oil is unprecedented. At virtually any other time in history if you had one of the worst stretches for stocks coupled with widespread economic angst, you’d see oil underperforming. Instead, it’s not only outperformed, but it’s made gains. Oil is up 10% in the past four weeks. This is the first close above $110 since March 25.
I keep waiting for this shoe to drop as the mood out there worsens but it’s just not happening. Now there’s talk about Shanghai reopening and at some point stocks need to at least bounce.
It’s increasingly clear that there just isn’t enough supply. I fear how high prices could go, particularly if predictions of Russia losing 3 million barrels per day come true.
The problem for the larger market is that oil spending is taking up a larger share of the wallet. This is data from JPM. Gasoline prices have risen every day since April 26.
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar mixed, set for first weekly loss in seven
ECB’s Visco: June rate hike out of the question, July perhaps the time to start
ECB’s Muller: The focus needs to be on fighting high inflation
ECB’s Kazaks says hopes that first rate hike will take place in July
BOE’s Pill: Policy tightening still has further to run
Japan PM Kishida: Rapid movements in the yen currency are undesirable
Russian gas flow to Finland to be halted on 21 May at 0400 GMT
Shanghai feel the economic pinch of lockdown measures in April
UK April retail sales +1.4% vs -0.2% m/m expected
Germany April PPI +2.8% vs +1.4% m/m expected
Markets:
NZD leads, JPY lags on the day
European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.1%
US 10-year yields up 1.4 bps to 2.869%
Gold up 0.1% to $1,843.42
WTI crude up 0.2% to $112.45
Bitcoin up 0.5% to $30,333
It was a quiet session in terms of headline as markets kept steadier overall after a lot of pushing and pulling on the week.
Equities tracked higher, with European indices posting gains of around 1.4% to 1.8% across the board while US futures also extended their advance to over 1% on the session. That said, it will still take a miracle for US stocks to prevent a seventh consecutive weekly decline and that says a lot about sentiment at the moment despite the light respite.
The mood in FX is also not hinting at much although the dollar looks set for a weekly decline – the first in seven.
EUR/USD is little changed around 1.0560-70 levels while USD/JPY is hugging the 128.00 level for the most part with Treasury yields mostly little changed.
The pound saw a decent recovery from 1.2450 to near 1.2500 before sellers stepped in again near the figure level to keep gains in check. Elsewhere, AUD/USD is seen advancing to 0.7050-60 and a weekly close above 0.7000 will be a welcome development for buyers.Besides that, the Chinese yuan continued its snapback on the week, set for its best weekly performance since de-pegging from the dollar back in 2005.
Some food for thought:
US Data and ECB Weigh on Markets
New York, should have been the usual bounce back day for stocks? Instead,
while there was some attempt, the market settled back toward the previous day’s
lows.
This is a
somewhat precarious situation and encourages our view that the ‚day and
technical traders‘ were caught enthusiastically long. While the real money
funds were very happy to take advantage of the liquidity provided and continue
to sell down their portfolios.
It is a bear
market. Has been all year. US data was worrying in that Existing Home Sales fell
another 2.4%, and New Jobless Claims leapt to 218,000. This remains a low and
good number, but it did exhibit a bit of a break to the upside which could
again indicate the tide is most definitely turning down for the US economy.
The ECB
wants to move toward tightening, or so the ’talk’ goes, but it is just way too
late for the ECB who was focussed on being popular, and is just now starting to
chase the inflation wave that has already inundated the region. This will
provide a moment of support for the Euro, but a bit of a ’snowflake in summer’
rally, really. ECB rates will fall further behind US levels, even if the ECB
starts to raise.
Additionally,
there is that small thing of war on the doorstep and energy supply concerns
recession likelihood.
This content
may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty
and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information
provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation,
forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is
information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice
on which you can rely.
This article was written by
Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY Securities.
Key Trading Levels to Watch on May 20
Watch the video for the key trading levels for AUDJPY,
AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, USD
Index, and S&P 500.
Key Trading Levels – AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, USD Index, & S&P 500 from ACY Securities Australia on Vimeo.
Read
the updated analysis below:
· AUDJPY has rallied
back to the 90.29 monthly resistance level.
· AUDUSD has rallied
back to the 0.7030-51 daily resistance area.
· EURJPY has
rallied back to the 135.51 daily resistance level after finding support at the
134.14 monthly support level.
· EURUSD has advanced
and tested the 1.0600 level.
· GBPJPY has rallied
back to the 159.61 daily resistance level after finding support at the 158.21
monthly support level.
· GBPUSD has rallied
and retested the 1.2500 level.
· NZDJPY
has
reversed at the 82.49 monthly resistance level and is now targeting 79.44 last
week’s low.
· NZDUSD
has
rallied back to the 0.6380 weekly resistance level.
· USDCAD continues
to find support at the 1.2800 level.
·
USDJPY has declined down to the 127.51 daily support level.
· USD Index has
closed back below the 103.81 monthly resistance level.
· S&P 500 has
declined down to test last week’s low.
This content
may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty
and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information
provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation,
forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is
information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice
on which you can rely.This article was written by Duncan
Cooper – ACY Securities Senior Market Strategist & Trading Mentor.
USD/JPY Volatility Heats Up, Dollar Index Tumbles
Equity wipeout has triggered ‚contrarian buy signal‘, says BofA
BofA notes that last week observed $5.2 billion exiting world equities funds, while global bond funds saw $12.3 billion leave – marking a seventh straight week of outflows.
For some context, the BofA ‚Bull & Bear‘ indicator hints at an „unambiguous contrarian buy“ when it falls below 2.0:
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Risk retreat, dollar subdued though
Key Trading Levels to Watch for Today
the updated analysis below:
·
AUDJPY has
reversed at the 90.29-71 monthly resistance area and is now targeting 87.28
last week’s low.
·
AUDUSD has
reversed at the 0.7030 daily resistance level and is now targeting the 0.6826
monthly support level.
·
EURJPY has
reversed at the 136.49 daily resistance level and is now targeting 132.65 last
week’s low.
·
EURUSD has
closed back below the 1.0522 monthly resistance level.
·
GBPJPY has
closed back below the 158.21 monthly support level and is now targeting 155.59
last week’s low.
·
GBPUSD has
failed to hold Tuesday’s gains closing back below the 1.2411 daily resistance
level.
·
NZDJPY
has
reversed at the 82.49 monthly resistance level and is now targeting 79.44 last
week’s low.
·
NZDUSD
has
reversed at the 0.6380 weekly resistance level and is now targeting the 0.6204
monthly support level.
·
USDCAD has
declined down to the 1.2800 level and found support.
·
USDJPY has formed a lower top at the 129.40 daily
resistance level.
·
USD Index
has closed back above the 103.81 monthly resistance level.
·
S&P 500
has declined strongly down from the 4104 monthly resistance level.
This article was written by Duncan Cooper – Senior Market Strategist
& Trading Mentor at ACY Securities.
This content
may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty
and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information
provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation,
forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is
information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice
on which you can rely.