<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I already highlighted the situation earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-selloff-runs-into-a-checkpoint-20221117/“ target=“_blank“>here</a> and we are seeing more of that in European trading today, as traders start to dial back the post-CPI selloff in the dollar. As we meet key technical levels, it is now a question for markets whether or not we are done with the retracement/correction and is there still bullish appetite for the dollar moving forward?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>From a fundamental standpoint, not much has changed as the Fed continues to reaffirm that it will hike rates further even though they are also now opening a bit of a gap in the door towards slowing the pace of future rate hikes. Meanwhile, all other major central banks are either equally as dovish or even more so. So, that should keep the dollar in a good spot right?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, yes and no. On the one hand, the dollar is still the cleanest shirt among the dirty laundry. But considering how being long the greenback has been the consensus trade for almost the entirety of the year so far, it puts a lot of emphasis on any change in the narrative for the currency as such.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In other words, the dollar will find its previously easy gains harder to come by now but unless we do see major technical levels break one after the other, it is still in with a good shot to come back up after the latest drop in the past week. I’ll be highlighting the technicals in my next post.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Crypto Market
picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin
moved between $16.3K and $17.0K on Wednesday and is changing hands Thursday
morning closer to the lower bound of yesterday’s range. Some pressure on crypto
comes from more wary financial markets, where major indices are down. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The total
capitalisation of the crypto market has fallen by 1.7% to $830bn in the last 24
hours. However, the overall quieter trading pattern should be noted after the
surge in volatility in recent days.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Crypto Fear
and Greed Index was down 3 points to 20 by Thursday and remains in a state of
„extreme fear“.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the
technical analysis side, Bitcoin’s failure to cross $17.0K looks like a
corrective rebound to lock in profits before a new round of declines. This
scenario will only become main after the price
approaches local lows near $15.8K, opening the way to $12K.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Ethereum is
under more pressure, forming a sequence of declining intraday extremes. At the
current price near $1200, we can see the dam-breaking effect at levels below
$1100.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A similar
pattern is seen in the overall cryptocurrency market capitalisation chart,
where we see local reversals from lower levels.</p><p>Crypto News
background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
The Wall Street Journal, crypto lending platform BlockFi is preparing to file
for bankruptcy. The company has acknowledged significant exposure to the FTX
exchange. Last week BlockFi suspended customer withdrawals.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The collapse
of FTX affected too many companies, which could extend the crypto winter to the
end of 2023, according to cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. Many institutional
funds are stuck on FTX, causing increased distrust in the industry. Stablecoins
dominance has reached a new high of 18%.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin will
fall heavily in November and hit „the bottom“, forecasts Pantera
Capital’s crypto fund. BTC will then rise to $36,000 ahead of the next halving
in March 2024 and continue to grow to a new record peak of $149,000.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
the average results of a survey conducted by BDC Consulting among 53
cryptocurrency executives, bitcoin will stop the decline at $11,479. Meanwhile,
over half of top executives intend to increase their investments in
cryptocurrencies and have no plans to cut back.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>S&P 500 futures are now down 7 points, or 0.2%, with 10-year Treasury yields being up 3.6 bps to 3.730% now. That is a bit of a contrast to earlier in the session where the former was up by around 0.5% and the latter down 1 bps to 3.684%. The switch over in the mood is now seeing the dollar hold slightly higher against the major currencies bloc.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0360 levels while USD/JPY has turned a drop to 138.90 to rise up to 139.65 at the moment. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1880 but the biggest loser is AUD/USD, which is down 0.7% to 0.6690 – contesting its 100-day moving average at 0.6695 currently. I pointed out some of the technical considerations earlier in the day here:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-selloff-runs-into-a-checkpoint-20221117/“ target=“_blank“>Dollar selloff runs into a checkpoint</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -0.1%</li><li>Market index 205.2 vs 199.9 prior</li><li>Purchase index 169.7 vs 162.6 prior</li><li>Refinance index 367.1 vs 373.1 prior</li><li>30-year mortgage rate 6.90% vs 7.14% prior</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>A slight bump higher in mortgage activity in the past week, which comes as the average interest rate of the most popular home loan in the US falls back below 7% in a 24 bps dip. That said, overall conditions are still just off their worst since 1997 so this doesn’t really say a lot.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Poland blast likely caused by Ukrainian air defense missile</li><li>Investigation is ongoing, but it was not Ukraine’s fault</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This just reaffirms the earlier finding <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-officials-say-initial-findings-suggest-missile-may-have-been-fired-by-ukraine-20221116/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. In any case, I believe this should put an end to the whole geopolitical drama that started from yesterday.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The report by Reuters say that China leaders are expected to chart course for next year, prioritise stimulus over reform at the Central Economic Work Conference in December. The officials cited say that „we are not optimistic about the economic situation“ and that „downward pressures are still there even as we make some policy adjustments on COVID“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That said, they will recommend a modest growth target ranging from 4.5% to 5.5% – which is a pickup compared to this year’s growth at least. The range was one given by four of the advisers cited while one said that „we should set a growth target around 5% for next year“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Even though China leaders will meet in December to set the growth outlook, it is typically the case that any targets will not be announced until the country’s annual parliament meeting – usually in March.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>The need for continued tightening policy is evident</li><li>But case for implementing less aggressive approach is gaining ground</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The window is pretty much closing for the ECB but policymakers can surely take in a lot of comfort from the fact that a milder winter could help to ease economic pressures going into next year at least.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Interest rates might have to rise to higher levels to slow the economy</li><li>It would make sense to slow the pace of rate hikes next year to 0.25% increments</li><li>But the real challenge is on the dangers of prematurely ending rate hikes</li><li>We have a lot of work to do</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/bringing-inflation-down-without-a-recession-might-not-be-feasible-fed-official-says-11668571133″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full interview</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Taking her other remarks into context, it is not as dovish as it sounds. But what is clear is that Fed policymakers are already looking towards this and that is reason enough for markets to keep with the play from last week – especially if <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/economic-data/“ target=“_blank“ id=“ed1b62b3-5e5b-4a70-82dc-4a13e98beda8_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>economic data</a> continues to vindicate such an outlook.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>It’s the great mystery of the social media age: This person makes that
much money doing what?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A mental step back, maybe a cup of tea, and a few moments of collected
thought will probably lead you to some obvious if annoying truths:</p><ol type=“1″ start=“1″>
<li class=“MsoNormal“>That
one is extremely
good-looking and is a 7-out-of-10 dancer.</li>
<li class=“MsoNormal“>This
one knows how to change
their personality so that it connects with small children</li>
<li class=“MsoNormal“>The one over there is really good at a particular video game.</li>
</ol><p class=“MsoNormal“>That’s all pretty reasonable in today’s influencer economy.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>But there are still some inexplicable outliers. Why, at the bottom of
your friend requests, are there so many people who apparently made their
fortunes from forex trading? And why are they wearing the same aviator
sunglasses, posed against the same expensive but tasteless cars, looking out
over the same sunset vistas? And who carries around a briefcase full of cash,
really?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Forex is a portmanteau derived from foreign exchange. As a financial
vertical, foreign exchange investment is traditionally in the form of arbitrage
opportunities. Sums of money are moved between different currencies in order to
take advantage of small discrepancies in exchange rates, turning a profit. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Forex fraudsters, that’s who. And their lavish insta-lifestyles are as
fake as the opportunities they offer.</p><p>What
Are Forex Scams?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A typical example might look like: a forex investor exchanges USD to
euros, then euros to Hungarian forints, forints to RMB, then back into USD,
perhaps ending up with a profit of 0.2% of their initial investment. With a
0.2% ROI, very large sums of money have to be wielded in order to make a
worthwhile profit – 0.2% of one million dollars is $2000.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Forex fraud, thus, is any sort of malicious activity <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.nerdwallet.com/uk/investing/forex-scams/“ target=“_blank“>within the forex vertical</a>. In a general sense,
any activity where information was misrepresented, and that information led to
a foreign exchange investment that never had a realistic chance of developing
returns, could be considered forex fraud. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>While there are certainly enterprise-level scams within the forex
exchange community, the most common example of forex fraud for most people will
happen in their <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/3-tips-for-searching-proper-financial-advice-on-tiktok-20220615/“ target=“_blank“>social media channels</a>. </p><p>What Do Forex Scams Look Like?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Many forex scams du jour will generally be promoted by a network of
“affiliate marketers”. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>These accounts will be fine-tuned to capture the imaginations of the
vulnerable, touting designer brands, imported cars, exotic vacations, and of
course inexplicable wads of cash. The lifestyle shown will be presented as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/1bee6bdc-9cc6-4415-84fc-6536ec31d46c“ target=“_blank“>something easily achievable</a>, or as an
as-yet-undiscovered secret. With true marketing team savvy, the text will be
optimized to be eye-catching, with exciting statistics and evocative emojis.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In August 2022, a BBC special recounted how unlicensed traders stole
£3.8 million from legitimate forex customers by manipulating them with false
signals and not letting them access their funds.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>At this point, many people might notice the strangely empty,
movie-set-like quality of the posted photos. There may even be a small,
instinctual voice that says, “something’s not quite right here”. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>But maybe not.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>If this at-a-glance marketing ploy is successful, a potential victim
may start reading the content of the fraudulent forex trader. Their posts will
promise huge returns on relatively small investments, taking advantage of
newbie enthusiasm and pitfalls in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Tag/trading-psychology“ target=“_blank“>trading psychology</a>. They might be willing to share the
secrets of their success, provided you join their investment group – membership
payable via BTC only.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>From here, even without knowing that a huge return on a small
investment is impossible in forex
trading, all but the most impressionable will turn back. But the
impressionable, the never-before-scammed, make up a significant number of
people, and a significant potential return for fraudsters.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>After converting their fiat currency to Bitcoin and sending the initial
investment, the victim will be invited to a group on a messenger app like
WhatsApp. There, the fraudster will assure them that their money is available
anytime – it’s actually already gone – and their investment is reversible and
covered by SEC/FCA mandate – it’s not. In the group chat, each “investor’s”
money can be seen increasing in value, potentially leading them to invest even
more, but attempts to withdraw it will be met with threats. Eventually,
inevitably, the number will zero out, or nearly so. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A small consolation: after the Bitcoin left the victim’s account, their
return was always going to be zero anyway.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>There will be no recourse for recouping the lost money. Cryptocurrency
in general has no infrastructure to trigger an automatic reimbursement. Contacting
the apparently wealthy original influencer will result in no solutions. After
all, that influencer was always just an affiliate marketer, posing for pictures
in a lifestyle that an offshore, investment bank paid for.</p><p>Forex Fraud on the Rise</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Social media-based forex fraudsters have settled on a working formula
when it comes to enticing new victims. Their Instagram pages are designed to
make young peoples’ get-rich-quick brains percolate.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>For the most connected and tech-capable generations, it’s much more
likely to rub shoulders with a fraudster than in the unconnected world. By the
same avenue that the internet and social media make the world smaller and
closer together, so too do they connect the young and innocent with the cynical
and malicious.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Many of us learn our most valuable lessons through the process of trial
and error. We might waste five dollars getting upsold, or get scammed out of
twenty by trusting the wrong person. Relatively small mistakes, and ones that
can inform your inner trust barometer when you find yourself being pursued by a
forex “influencer”.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>However, getting duped by a forex fraudster running a glorified Ponzi scheme is a decidedly more expensive
first lesson to learn. Keeping educated on the potential dangers and warning
signs is a less expensive option, albeit less tearful and thus potentially less
effective.</p><p>Tips for Spotting Forex Scams</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Even if you have a skeptical brain from a lifetime of experience,
shifting those experiences to social media can be a challenge. What do the
traditional, on-the-ground scams you’re already familiar with look like when
they’re on Instagram? What’s the forex fraud equivalent of three-card monte?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>What sophisticated, efficient fraud prevention does involves
scrutinizing a user’s behavior at various touchpoints, enriching what we can
observe with additional data points to determine the likelihood they are
malicious. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>What does this look like on the side of platforms, exactly? There are
ample examples, based on the industry. For example, in banking, digital onboarding can be a
challenge because challenger banks look for the most seamless, user-friendly
experience but they still cannot afford to become victims of fraud.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>So the idea is to gather data at this stage and evaluate it behind the
scenes. This applies to forex, too. Digital onboarding, authentication,
know-your-user protocols, deposits, payouts, and several other customer actions
can all be studied in real-time to assess how risky they are.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A high score indicates a high risk of fraud. Similarly, here is a list
of potential red flags that your brain should be considering when someone
approaches you on Instagram with a too-good-to-be-true deal (adjust your
personal risk threshold accordingly):</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Unsolicited contact: Serious investment bankers don’t “cold call” through
Instagram. An unknown person reaching out to you offering a great opportunity
is actually offering anything but.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
“Risk-free” or “No downturn” investments: No investment is risk-free, and every market
has periods of downturn. Characterizing an investment opportunity as either of
these things is an obvious misrepresentation, and should be treated carefully.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Requests for personal information: Not exclusive to forex scams, anyone
approaching you online asking for personal info should be kept at a distance.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Dangling unrealistic returns: Wordings like guarantees of large returns on
small investments, or being just a few steps away from wealth if you just continue down this path, should
make you wary, as no such investment opportunities actually exist.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Unconvincing clout: Forex scammers will be trying to convince you of their
legitimacy, and will often overshoot reasonability. The person with the lavish
Instagram account will also be a VP, cite other big investors, or be sitting on
a big secret they’re willing to let you in on. People with real clout like this
don’t go about advertising it, particularly to strangers.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Suspicious velocity/currency: Scammers will want to “close deals” by
impressing a sense of urgency on the “deal”. There may be only hours or days to
become an investor, pressuring you into making a fast (bad) decision. As well,
payment via a method that you aren’t familiar with is an easy way to keep you
rattled and compliant. Be wary of people asking you to pay in BTC or through an
app you’re unfamiliar with.</p><p>Staying Frosty and Fraud-Free</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Though it’s unadvisable to invest money through anything but a trusted
broker, there are ways to keep yourself as secure as possible beyond a cagey
disposition and good working knowledge of the fraud landscape.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Real-time data lookups give you a massive pool of information on any
(legit) online persona. This way, personal data points provided by an
apparently legitimate “forex trader” can be checked for validity. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>You will find out how risk-prone this person is based on their device,
connection details, and overall digital footprint, or if they appear on any
sanctioned lists like PEP or OFAC. If they have provided a fake name, you will
see just how unrealistic the digital presence of Thick McRunfast is, and why
they should not be trusted.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>And why should forex platforms care? Simply put, users reward good
service, and punish those platforms that do not protect them. At the very
least, a platform may incur chargeback requests and consumer complaints. So
everyone benefits from the prevention of forex fraud. Everyone except
fraudsters, that is.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Though there is no definitive way to ward off the occasional bout of
gullibility, having a strong checklist for suspicious behavior is a good
fallback plan when interacting online. Fraud-fighting technology provides a
massive digital checklist, but the other half of the battle is making sure you
have your own.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a brutal day once again for the dollar as it is seen down over 1% against the likes of the euro, pound, aussie and kiwi today. The post-CPI rally in markets is continuing and that is weighing heavily on the dollar once again. EUR/USD has now run up to its 200-day moving average (blue line) and the resistance point will be a key one to watch in gauging if the pair has the appetite for an upside leg extension:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The 200-day moving average rests at 1.0427, so keep an eye on that ahead of the daily close.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also surging up by over 1% to fresh highs in seven weeks:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pair is trading to 1.1870-80 levels now as buyers solidify the break above the 100-day moving average (red line) and key trendline resistance (white line) above 1.1600. A move towards 1.2000 looks more than likely before stalling.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down 0.5% to near 139.00 as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-turns-lower-as-dollar-slips-to-start-the-session-20221115/“ target=“_blank“>downside pressure stays the course</a> while AUD/USD is up to 0.6770 and looking towards extending the upside push above its own 100-day moving average <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-moves-up-to-two-month-highs-amid-dollar-selloff-20221115/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.