The European Commission publishes its latest forecasts for the euro area economy – 5 November 2020
– Eurozone 2020 GDP forecast -7.8% (previously -8.7%)
– Eurozone 2021 GDP forecast +4.2% (previously +6.1%)

Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 30 October 2020
–  +1.7%
– Market index 838.2 vs 807.8 prior
– Purchase index 301.2 vs 305.2 prior
The bulk of the surge last week was due to a jump in refinancing activity as purchases slowed down once again. Overall, this still points to the housing market

Regardless of who wins the White House, the battle between COVID-19 and central banks will still continue
Even though the election race may still prove to be too close to call, the market can at least bet that there are two things they can count on once this is over and done with.

Detroit ballots are in and Trump’s lead in Michigan got slashed significantly
This is the same as earlier (Milwaukee was the turn there) as Wayne County (Detroit) just reported roughly 150,000 ballots and nearly 140,000 were for Biden.

The dollar is trimming some of its earlier advance as stocks stay more choppy
EUR/USD is now back up to 1.1700, working its way above the 100-hour moving average at 1.1670. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is back up above 1.3000 after having traded to as low as 1.2915 earlier as buyers now seize back near-term control in the

This just reaffirms the market expectations
They have been rather explicit about doing so following last week.
the policy meeting
As things stand, expanding PEPP is the definitely part of its „recalibration“ but I reckon we can also expect changes to QE and TLTRO as well next month.

Reuters reports, citing EU and UK sources familiar with talks
More to come..

The Senate race will also be one to pay attention to later tonight
Even if Biden wins the White House, if there is no ‚blue wave‘ to follow, that could spell trouble for stimulus plans and other key legislative proposals.

The European Commission updates on Brexit talks
– Still a lot to do in negotiations with the UK
– Barnier is to brief member states some time this week
– Still working towards agreement with the UK
As you would expect, both sides are still posturing for the most part despite all the political theater over the past few

Biden’s chances of winning the White House may rest on the Pennsylvania result, according to FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight makes mention that losing Pennsylvania wouldn’t necessarily doom Biden’s odds of winning but in the event of a more tightly contested outcome later in the night, it could serve as the likely tipping-point state of the election – one