• Euro holds higher as France’s far-right sweep first round of elections
• USDJPY Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact
• Bavaria June CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prior
• Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs. 45.6 prelim
• UK June final manufacturing PMI 50.9 vs 51.4 prelim
• UK May mortgage approvals 59.99k vs 59.90k expected
• UK June Nationwide house prices +0.2% vs -0.1% m/m expected
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 28 June CHF 452.0 bn vs CHF 451.8 bn prior

Markets:

• EUR leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.408%
• Gold up 0.5% to $2,336.82
• WTI crude up 0.6% to $81.97
• Bitcoin up 4.2% to $62,643

The main mover among major currencies to start the week is the euro. The single currency opened with a gap higher after the first round of the French elections, which shows a comfortable win for Le Pen’s far-right faction.

It is perhaps the lack of any real surprises that is giving some relief to the euro, with some pollsters anticipating a relative majority with an outside chance of an absolute majority for the National Rally party.

Macron’s alliance has been significantly weakened and it doesn’t look bode well for them ahead of the second round of votes on 7 July. That said, there is still much uncertainty as we have to wait on deal-making developments in the days ahead. I wouldn’t rule out a political standstill so quickly, so be cautious on the euro gains.

EUR/USD stuck around 1.0740-50 levels mostly, up around 0.3% to 0.4% on the day. The dollar is keeping more mixed across the board, with little changes elsewhere. USD/JPY continues to stay buoyed at around the 161.00 level.

Besides that, we got the German state CPI readings and they reaffirmed a slight softening in headline annual inflation for June. That should see the national reading later come in more or less around estimates of 2.3%.

In the equities space, French stocks are leading the way but have seen the optimism tempered slightly. The CAC 40 index opened with gains of around 2.6% but are now up just 1.5% on the day. As for US futures, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% with Wall Street hoping to keep the July winning streak going this year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.