• Inflation figures have mostly brought positive surprises recently
• Does not want to put a figure on what „slightly lower“ means
• Monetary policy has played its part in bringing inflation down
• Euro area growth prospects have deteriorated in the meantime
• Growth could even be slightly below 0.8%, as projected in December
• Full transcript

All of the language here is to tee up rate cuts that are now likely to come in either April or June. He’s alluding to softer inflation and weaker growth. And those are the two key ingredients to start the recipe of easing monetary policy in the months ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ 100 futures technical analysis before the FOMC meeting today

ForexLive.com, January 31, 2024

NQ technical analysis video

The NASDAQ 100 futures market has been in a trading range and just crossed down its value area low at 17500, which I also mentioned is an important price level to watch in my previous video, and if we CLOSE 2 CONSECUTIVE days below it, then bears regain control. This has not happened yet. The market may decline till an area of a potential double support level formed by a trend line and the bottom standard deviation of the value area. WATCH 17025 TO 17250 for a possibly reversal up.

FOMC Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting today to discuss interest rates.While a ’snoozer; is expected, meaning that it may not change anything in the market yet, this type of an event is always a wildcard simply due to a word or two that may come in play with Jerome Powell.

Earnings Results influencing NQ till end of this week

Earnings results have been a major factor in the recent selloff in the NASDAQ 100 futures market. Google and AMD both reported disappointing earnings this week, and their stocks have fallen. Other tech stocks are also under pressure, as investors worry about the impact of rising interest rates on corporate profits.

1. AMD is declining apx 7%, GOOG is declining apx 5.5%
2. MSFT is declining apx 1.5% but may surprise a bit a turn greenish till the end of the week
3. We stll have major earnings reports by META, APPL and AMZN, till the end of the week

Unemployment Report on Friday, 02 Feb 2024

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January unemployment report on Friday. The market is expecting the unemployment rate to remain at 3.9%. However, a weaker-than-expected report could trigger a selloff in the stock market.

The NASDAQ 100 futures market is facing a number of headwinds, including disappointing earnings results, rising interest rates, and the FOMC meeting. However, I am staying contrarian and still believe that there is a good chance for the market to reach my target of 18,000. Traders should stay adaptive to the market and be prepared to adjust their trading strategies accordingly. ALWAYS TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Additional Resources

• NASDAQ 100 Futures Technical Analysis
• NASDAQ 100 Futures Chart
• Google Earnings
• AMD Earnings
• FOMC Meeting
• Unemployment Report

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

When most people
hear about Forex trading, they imagine a bustling currency exchange office with
streams of people constantly exchanging one currency for another.

In the digital age,
however, the reality of Forex trading stretches far beyond these physical
spaces. It’s an expansive world where the uninitiated may feel like sailors
entering choppy seas without a map. Yet, for those who take the time to learn
the ropes, these waters hold the potential for fascinating journeys and
rewarding destinations.

Charting a Course Through Dynamic Forex Markets

Navigating the Forex
market requires understanding its unique characteristics – it’s about knowing
various currency pairs, leveraging positions for maximum potential, and
tracking market hours that span the globe.

Moreover,
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waves, one must become adept at reading technical indicators and making timely
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the clock.

While Forex trading
may seem unpredictable, a trader who masters the art of technical and
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waves with confidence and precision, transforming seemingly random fluctuations
into strategic trading decisions.

Exploring Opportunities in Metal Trading

Forex trading often
involves more than just currencies. Many traders also find allure in the world
of precious metals. Assets like gold, silver and platinum can offer a variety
of trading opportunities. Economic indicators such as inflation rates or employment data often reflect
in the fluctuating prices of these metals.

Thus, incorporating
them into a diversified trading portfolio might serve both as a buffer against
inflation and a play on market sentiment. Interestingly, metal commodities also
exhibit seasonal trends, which seasoned traders might leverage to their advantage.

Notably, trading in
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new dimension in trading strategies.

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market, considering both currency and commodity trends for a more robust
investment portfolio.

Diverse Account Options for Customized Trading
Strategies

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experience can vary significantly based on the type of account one chooses.
Novice traders might benefit from demo accounts where they can practice without
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Identifying personal
goals and risk tolerance is paramount in constructing a suitable trading
environment that promotes both growth and security.

Global Markets at Your Fingertips: Navigating
International Trading Opportunities

The modern trader is
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trading opportunities that span the globe. By participating in these global
markets, traders can introduce themselves to new currencies and the risks and
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announcements and shifts in trade relationships to seize trading opportunities
whenever they arise.

Hence, an astute
approach to these markets will involve staying abreast of a complex web of
international developments that drive currency values on a global stage.

Balancing Risk and Reward in CFD Trading

Among the
instruments available to Forex traders are Contracts for Difference (CFDs),
which allow participants to speculate on the price movements of currencies,
indices, commodities and more without the need to own the underlying asset.

Though CFDs can
amplify gains, they also increase the risks, which makes risk management tools
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positions, and employing strategies to minimize exposure, traders can balance
the risk and reward inherent in CFD trading and strive for successful market
engagements.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The JOLTS job openings yesterday here showed that markets are susceptible to data releases even as we await the Fed policy decision later today. It is jobs week in the US after all and this builds up towards the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. For today, there is the ADP employment data that will be released.

More often than not, the data here feels like going to the roulette table. It isn’t the best, or even a good, indicator of what to expect on Friday. However, it is still a release that traders tend to react towards and that will make it an appetiser before the Fed later.

In December, the ADP employment change showed an increase of 164k and that was above estimates of 145k. For the January release, it is expected to show an increase of 145k.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

GBP

• The BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting
  with no dovish language as they reaffirmed that they will keep rates high for
  sufficiently long to return to the 2% target.
• The latest employment report showed job losses in December and
  lower than expected wage growth.
• The UK CPI beat expectations across the board, which is
  going to reinforce the BoE’s neutral stance.
• The latest UK PMIs showed the Manufacturing sector improving but
  remaining in contraction while the Services sector continues to expand.
• The latest UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the
  board by a big margin as consumer spending remains weak.
• The market expects the BoE to start
  cutting rates in May.

JPY

• The BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected with interest rates at
  -0.10% and the 10 year JGB yield target at 0% with 1% as a reference cap.
• Governor Ueda repeated once again that they won’t
  hesitate to take easing measures if needed but he’s becoming more optimistic on
  achieving their 2% target.
• The Japanese CPI eased further across all measures
  which makes it even harder to expect a rate hike from the BoJ anytime soon.
• The latest Unemployment Rate ticked lower hovering around cycle
  lows.
• The Japanese PMIs improved for both the Manufacturing
  and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.
• The latest Japanese wage data missed expectations by a big margin
  and as a reminder the BoJ is focusing on wage growth to decide whether to tweak
  its monetary policy.
• The Tokyo CPI, which is seen as a leading
  indicator for National CPI, fell much more than expected.
• The market expects the BoJ to hike
  rates in Q2.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY rejected
the cycle high at 188.67 as the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above
the level to position for a drop into the 184.28 support. The
price has been consolidating around the cycle high but recently we got a
breakout, which might be a bad omen for the buyers.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair has
been trading inside a rising channel into the cycle high and once we got the
breakout, the pair started to consolidate between the cycle high and the 187.30
level. This week though the price broke out and the sellers should now increase
their bearish bets into the 184.28 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price getting back above the support now turned resistance to
invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the cycle high
targeting a breakout.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the bearish setup with the price breaking out of the range and rallying
back to retest the resistance before falling back again. If the price were to
break below the 186.90 level, we can expect even more offers coming into the
market.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US ADP and the US Employment Cost
Index before the FOMC rate decision later in the day. Tomorrow, we have the BoE
rate decision followed by the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the ISM
Manufacturing PMI. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.