Last week, the Dow Jones managed to print another
all-time high given another slate of goldilocks economic data with a pickup in
the PMIs, a much
better than expected GDP report
and the Core PCE
indicating that the inflation rate over the last 3 and 6 months data fell below
the Fed’s 2% target. This week contains many risk events so we might see the
market trading a bit on the defensive side, but barring any negative surprises,
we will likely continue to see new higher highs.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones eventually
pulled back into the previous highs around the 37777 level where it bounced
from as the buyers piled in with a defined risk below the support to
position for a rally into a new all-time high. There’s not much to do here for
the sellers other than waiting for a break below the support to target the
37066 level next.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we
had also the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level adding extra confluence to the
support zone. The bias should remain bullish as long as the price stays above
the 37777 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that price
is now at another support zone around the 38050 level. Dip-buyers are likely to
step in here to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop
into the 37777 support.

Upcoming Events

This week is going to be a really busy one with the FOMC
rate decision and lots of economic data on the agenda. We begin tomorrow with
the US Job Openings and the US Consumer Confidence reports. On Wednesday we
will see the US Employment Cost Index and the ADP data before the FOMC rate
decision later in the day. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week
with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Month-end hedging or rebalancing flows typically tend to pick up from the spot date (in this case, today) until the last day of the month itself. To start off the year, bank models appear to be signaling for mild but broad-based selling in the dollar.

Credit Agricole’s model suggests that dollar selling is on the cards with the strongest signal being against the Swedish krona. The banks‘ corporate flow model also points to euro buying going into month-end as well.

That’s something to keep in your back pocket just in case when considering the price movements in the days ahead. This could also add more complications to any Fed-related flows before the policy decision on Wednesday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.