The euro’s lack of volatility underscores key horizontal levels and the potential for range trading. EU inflation and updated sentiment data unlikely to move the dial significantly
British Pound Weekly Forecast: Big UK Data Week May Not Mean Big Moves
Recent bullish price action, combined with unimpressive GDP figures, provides a very uncertain landscape for the pound in big week for UK data
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Big big bid at the front end continues but USD unfazed
- US December PPI 1.0% vs 1.3% expected
- ECB’s Lane: Interest rate cuts are not a near-term topic
- Baker Hughes oil rigs -2 in the current week to 499
- The state of the US consumer and the economic risks, according to JP Morgan
- US says it expects some sort of retaliation from the Houthis
- Canadian retail spending ticked lower in December – RBC
- Reminder: Monday is a holiday in the US
Markets:
- Gold up $19 to $2047
- US 10-yaer yields down 3.4 bps to 3.94%
- US 2-year yields down 11 bps to 4.15%
- WTI crude oil up 77-cents to $72.72
- S&P 500 up 4 points to 4783
- JPY leads, EUR lags
The big question everyone is asking for the second day is: Why such a strong bid in two-years? Yields are down 25 bps since the post-CPI peak on Thursday with a near-relentless bid. There was some ammunition with a softer PPI number today and others are pointing to Yemen and the upcoming PCE report factors but that’s a stretch.
Curiously, other markets didn’t really buy into what was happening in bonds, sparking talk (unfounded so far as I can tell) that some kind of fund blowup might be behind the moves. The US dollar initially fell with yields, boosting the euro to 1.0986 — a session high — but it slowly backed off to 1.0949 last.
Most dollar trades followed a similar path of strength early in the day with a reversal as Europe closed up shop. Importantly, the US is closed on Monday so that could have created some lumpy flows.
As for Yemen, oil rallied to $75.25 early only to slide all the way back to $72.79 on steady selling in New York. That’s typical of geopolitical events that don’t truly touch on oil supply (though I acknowledge the risks). The US continues to say that it doesn’t want a war.
Have a wonderful weekend.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
US stocks close the day mixed. The major indices close the week higher.
The major US stock indices are ending the day with mixed results. The Dow was lower on the day and although both the S&P and Nasdaq closed higher, it was only by modest changes. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq is now up 6 consecutive days after starting the New Year on the back foot by moving sharply lower. The last two days, however, have only risen by about 0.02%
The final numbers are showing:
- Dow Industrial Average is down -118.06 points or -0.31% at 37592.99
- S&P is closing up 3.61 points or 0.08% at 4783.84
- Nasdaq is closing up 2.56 points or 0.02% at 14972.75.
For the trading week, the major indices are ending with gains after declines last week that snapped 9-week gains for the S&P and the Nasdaq indices:
- Dow Industrial Average rose 0.34%. Last week the index fell -0.59%.
- S&P index rose 1.84%. Last week the index fell -1.52%.
- NASDAQ index rose 3.09%. Last week the index tumbled -3.25%.
A negative – at least technically – is that the S&P index moved above is all-time high closing level both yesterday and today, only to close below that level on each of the days. The high closing level is at 4796.57. The high price today reads 4802.40.. The high price yesterday reached 4798.50.
The earning season got underway with JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo announcing.
Next week, other financial institutions are scheduled to release including
- Tuesday: Morgan Stanley, PNC, Goldman Sachs
- Wednesday Citizens Financial Group, U.S. Bancorp, Discover
- Thursday: Key Bank, M&T Bank, Truist, Northern Trust
- Friday: State Street, Comerica, Ally
Thinking about other earnings releases going forward? Below is a summary of the earnings calendar for some of the major companies:
- January 23: Netflix, 3M, Intuitive Surgical, Verizon, Johnson & Johnson, P&G
- January 24: Tesla, IBM, servicenow
- January 25: Intel, Southwest Airlines, Northrop Grumman
- January 26, Caterpillar, American Express
- January 30: AMD, Pfizer, GM, UPS, Stryker
- January 31: Microsoft, MasterCard, Boeing, Phillips 66, Boston Scientific
- February 1: Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Merck, Honeywell, Amazon
- February 2: Chevron, Exxon
- February 5: McDonald’s
- February 6: Ford, Chipotle
- February 7: Walt Disney, PayPal, McKesson
- February 8: ConocoPhillips
- February 9 PepsiCo
Thank you for your support. Wishing all a happy and healthy weekend.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The AUDUSD is ending an up and down week with bearish tilt but there is work to do
The AUDUSD technicals are closing what has been an up-and-down trading week with a bias to the downside. That is a result, of the price action that has taken the price back below the 200 and 100-hour MAs at 0.6711 and 0.6700. Staying below those MAs tilts the bias more to the downside.
Although the bias is more to the downside, this week’s trading had several different shifts in that bias including the price action today.
- The price highs today moved up to test the low of what is a topside swing level between 0.6727 to 0.6738.
- On the downside today, the low of the day, bottomed near the low of a swing area that formed a floor for the early part of the week at 0.6676.
The price did move below that level on Thursday after the stronger-than-expected CPI, but the momentum could not be sustained and the price rebounded back higher setting up the ups and downs today.
The video above outlines the levels in play as the trading comes to an end, and traders look to the new week.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Canadian retail spending ticked lower in December – RBC
Retail spending from Canadian consumers at the country’s largest bank suggests a slight decrease in spending, with hardly any improvement year-over-year.
„Purchases of physical merchandise (excluding motor vehicles) ticked lower in December,“ RBC said in its month spending tracker, which is based on its cardholder data.
Spending on gifts was up just over 4% this year in Nov/Dec in nominal terms, just ahead of the 3% y/y inflation rate. However for December alone, both discretionary goods and services spending ended on a softer note.
Canadians continue to feel the squeeze of higher interest rates, but softer broader economic growth data (per-person GDP is on track to decline for a 6th consecutive quarter in Q4 2023) is bringing the Bank of Canada closer to a potential pivot to interest rate cuts, likely in the middle of the year in our own forecast.
Read the full report
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Reminder: Monday is a holiday in the US
US markets are closed on Monday so it will be a quiet one. However Asian, European and Canadian markets are open and the forex market never closes for holidays.
Globally, eyes on Monday will be on stock markets in Taiwan (and China) following Saturday’s election.
Data elsewhere includes German GDP and the Bank of Canada business outlook survey.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Von Aldi bis Ikea: Huthi-Attacken im Roten Meer sorgen für Lieferengpässe in Deutschland
Nicht nur Tesla ist von den Huthi-Attacken betroffen. Auch Aktionswaren, Lebensmittel, Möbel und Tierfutter fehlen bald – die Folge dürften Preissteigerungen sein.Luftfahrt: Unfall-Flieger 737 Max bleibt ein Bestseller für Boeing – vor allem aus einem Grund
Die Zahl der Pannen des Mittelstreckenfliegers Boeing 737 Max ist groß. Doch die Airlines halten dem Modell die Treue. Sie haben kaum eine Alternative.Autoindustrie: Produktionsstopp bei Tesla – so trifft der Konflikt im Roten Meer die Autoindustrie
Der Beschuss von Handelsschiffen durch Huthi-Rebellen zwingt Tesla zu einem Produktionsstopp in Grünheide. Deutsche Autohersteller könnte der Konflikt eher beim Export behindern.