Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Jobs beat but ISM services miss 0 (0)

Markets:

  • WTI crude oil up $1.74 to $73.93
  • US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.05%
  • Gold up $1 to $2044
  • GBP leads, CAD lags
  • S&P 500 up 0.2%

Looking at the closing changes in FX, you might be excused for thinking nothing happened today but it was certainly the opposite. The US dollar hit the highs in the moments after non-farm payrolls on a strong headline and lower unemployment but a deeper dive into the data showed it wasn’t quite as strong as it looked. That started a retracement that further extended when ISM services missed.

However the bond sellers weren’t ready to give up and the initial risk-positive move and USD selling on ISM didn’t last. As the day wore on, the mood worsened and the dollar improved.

Ultimately, that left FX and equities right back to where they started the day.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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SEC asked bitcoin ETF issuers to submit final versions of key docs as soon as today 0 (0)

I continue to believe a bitcoin ETF is a done deal with a launch likely next week.

The latest report comes from Bloomberg and cites four people familiar who say the SEC told several issueers that they should submit a final version of a key listing document as soon as today.

Two of the sources said staff had no additional feedback on the paperwork.

The report says SEC commissioners are expected to vote on the filings next week.

We’ve seen many reports this week saying it’s a done deal and yet the price of bitcoin hasn’t responded positively, which makes me think that people are front-running the sell-the-fact trade. Bitcoin has rallied to $45K from $30K largely on hopes for an ETF approval.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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US equities eek out a gain but fall on the week for the first time since October 0 (0)

Closing changes on the day:

  • S&P 500 up 0.2%
  • DJIA +0.1%
  • Russell 2000 -0.2%
  • Nasdaq Comp +0.1%
  • Toronto TSX Comp +0.2%

Closing changes on the week:

  • S&P 500 down 1.5%
  • DJIA -0.6%
  • Russell 2000 -3.6%
  • Nasdaq Comp -3.25%
  • Toronto TSX Comp -0.3%

Coming into this week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had rallied for nine straight weeks in a move that highlights the power of the Fed pivot. Some profit taking was probably delayed by the turn of the calendar but it arrived this week. Is there more to come? I could see the argument for that, especially because Fed funds have repriced rate cuts down to 137 bps.

For next week though, the big release will be December CPI. A soft number puts a March cut right back into play.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Fed’s Barkin: Labor market fees like it’s moving in a steady, softening pattern 0 (0)

  • Consumer demand remains healthy, though slowing
  • Labor market reacceleration at this point seems unlikely
  • There is more uncertainty around the path of inflation given that progress over last six months has been so reliant on goods
  • Companies still trying to raise prices; need to see how consumers and competitors react
  • First quarter will be important given that businesses tend to mark up at the start of the year
  • US still at a point where inflation is above target and employment is near max
  • Labor market is ’normalizing nicely‘
  • No problem ‚toggling‘ rate to more normal levels as you build confidence inflation is falling

I think there is some real insight in these comments. The ‚toggling‘ idea is like the Fed taking out insurance and moving down to around 4.00% if inflation stays low. The comment about Q1 pricing is an important one too, given how strong prices rose in Jan/Feb of last year.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq turn negative 0 (0)

Maybe it was too much to expect a strong rebound on a soft ISM services number.

In the bigger picture, stocks are still on a nine-week winning streak, so that kind overbought momentum isn’t going to be cleaned up by four days of selling. That doesn’t necessarily mean the market needs to tank from here but we might need to see a dovish validation from the Fed to get there and maybe we track a bit lower in the meantime.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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