European stocks have pared earlier gains with most regional indices now marginally lower. UK stocks remain the exception with the FTSE 100 being up 0.6%, helped out by the softer inflation report earlier today. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% as US futures are also looking rather tepid on the session.

You would think that with softer inflation in the UK, risk trades will be ripping higher on a day like this. That especially since the UK is one where most market players were anticipating to have more stubborn inflation. Instead, we’re getting a rather lukewarm response and mixed flows. If anything else, I’d argue that lighter trading conditions are starting to come about now as we move towards the home straight for the year. That should characterise the remainder of the week as well as trading next week too.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

10-year UK gilt yields are down 8 bps currently to around 3.572%, leading the fall in global bond yields on the day. 10-year Treasury yields are also seen down a little over 3 bps to 3.892% and contesting the lows for the year currently. It all comes after the softer UK inflation data earlier today here.

It’s been quite a dramatic turn in the bond market since the end of October, and the ongoing rally certainly looks rather unrelenting. I mean, if even the UK economy – which is expected to see more sticky and high inflation – is also showing signs of weakening price pressures, it just validates everything else that we’re seeing elsewhere. And that vindicates the disinflation narrative that markets have been pricing in over the last few weeks.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected with no dovish language
  as they reaffirmed that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
  return to the 2% target.
• Governor Bailey pushed back against rate cuts
  expectations as he said that they cannot say if interest rates have
  peaked.
• The latest employment report missed forecasts with wage growth
  coming in much lower than expected and job losses in November.
• The UK CPI today missed expectations across the board,
  which is another welcome development for the BoE.
• The UK PMIs showed the Manufacturing sector falling
  further into contraction while the Services sector continues to expand.
• The latest UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the
  board by a big margin as consumer spending remains weak.
• The market expects the BoE to start
  cutting rates in Q2 2024

JPY

• The BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged with interest rates at -0.10% and
  the 10 year JGB yield target at 0% with 1% as a reference cap.
• Governor Ueda repeated once again that they won’t
  hesitate to take easing measures if needed and that they are not foreseeing
  sustainable price increases unless wage growth picks up.
• The latest Japanese CPIshowed that inflationary pressures
  are easing although they remain well above the BoJ’s 2% target.
• The latest Unemployment Rate remained unchanged near cycle lows.
• The Japanese Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction but
  the Services PMI ticked higher remaining in expansion.
• The latest Japanese wage data beat expectations and as a reminder
  the BoJ is focusing on wage growth to decide whether to tweak its monetary
  policy.
• The market expects the BoJ to hike
  rates in Q2 2024.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY pulled
back to the resistance zone
around the 184.00 handle where we had also the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a
drop into the 176.32 level and further added to the bearish bets following
today’s miss in the UK CPI data.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an
upward trendline around
the 181.00 handle where the buyers might try to lean onto to fade the latest
drop and position for a rally back into the 184.00 resistance. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 176.32 level.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action with the pair approaching the trendline. This
is where the battle between the buyers and sellers should get more interesting
as a break to the downside should see the bearish momentum increasing and
leading to a drop into the 176.32 level.

Upcoming Events

This week is a bit empty on the data front as we head
into the Christmas holidays. Today, we have the US Consumer Confidence reports.
Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the Japanese CPI, the UK Retail Sales and the US PCE data.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

That comes after the softer-than-expected UK CPI data today, with the firm anticipating the BOE to keep with a 25 bps rate cut per meeting starting from May 2024 until the bank rate reaches 3% in May 2025.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with a shift in the statement that indicated the end of the tightening
  cycle.
• The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
  downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
  was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
  in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
• Fed Chair Powell didn’t
  push back against the strong dovish pricing and even said that they are focused
  on not making the mistake of holding rates high for too long, which implies a
  rate cut coming soon.
• The US CPI last
  week came in line with expectations with the disinflationary progress
  continuing steady. This was also confirmed by the US PPI the
  day after where the data missed estimates.
• The labour market has been showing signs of
  weakening lately but we got some strong releases recently with the US Jobless Claims and the NFP coming
  in strongly.
• The US Retail Sales last
  week beat expectations across the board as consumer spending continues to hold.
• The latest ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  missed expectations falling further into contraction, while the ISM Services PMI beat
  forecasts holding on in expansion.
• The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates
  in Q1 2024.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged at the
  last meeting while stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s
  expected to decline further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive.
• The New Zealand inflation data missed expectations supporting the
  RBNZ’s stance.
• The latest labour market report showed a notable increase in
  the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth which is something that will
  keep the RBNZ on the sidelines.
• The Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction
  followed by the Services PMI which fell back into contraction.
• The market expects the RBNZ to start
  cutting rates in Q3 2024.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD surged
to new highs following the surprisingly dovish FOMC decision and it’s now
testing a key trendline. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
trendline to position for a pullback into the upward trendline and eyeing a
break lower. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to lean on the upward
trendline where they will find the 21 moving average for confluence.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that in case of a
pullback the buyers will also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level
around the trendline for further confluence. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the
upward trendline to target the 0.64 handle. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to invalidate the bullish
setup and increase the bearish bets into the 0.6050 support.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
pair is diverging with
the MACD right
at the key trendline. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. Some aggressive buyers might want to lean
on the minor upward trendline to position for a breakout to the upside and
target the 0.64 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking below the trendline to confirm the reversal and target the 50%
Fibonacci retracement level.

Upcoming Events

This week is a bit empty on the data front as we head
into the Christmas holidays. Today, we have the US Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims data, while on Friday we conclude the week
with the US PCE report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.