It’s a rare occasion that we get to see the Fed chair be the one to be last on the agenda before the blackout period goes into effect. But ahead of this month’s FOMC meeting, this will be one of those times. As such, Powell will have the chance to set to record straight on whether he agrees or disagrees with what has been priced in about the Fed outlook. It is definitely going to be an interesting one and we could see some late market moves today all before the weekend: What to know ahead of Fed chair Powell’s appearance later in the day?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected
  at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed once again that they are
  proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy tightening have yet to be
  felt.
• The US Core PCE yesterday came in line
  with forecasts with the disinflationary progress continuing steady.
• The labour market is starting to show weakness as Continuing
  Claims are now rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report missed across
  the board.
• The latest US PMIs came basically in line
  with expectations with a miss in the Manufacturing index and a beat in the
  Services measure.
• The US Consumer Confidence this week beat
  expectations although the details about the labour market continued to weaken.
• The hawkish Fed members recently shifted
  their stance to a more neutral position.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

JPY

• The BoJ kept its monetary policy basically
  unchanged at the last meeting but formally widened the YCC to 1% on the 10-year
  JGBs stating that it will be a reference cap.
• Governor Ueda repeated once again
  that they won’t hesitate to take easing measures if needed and that they are
  not foreseeing sustainable price increases.
• The Japanese CPIlast week showed that inflation pressures are easing
  although they remain well above the BoJ’s 2% target.
• The latest Unemployment Rate ticked
  lower with the labour market remaining strong.
• The recent Japanese Manufacturing
  PMI fell further into contraction, but the Services PMI ticked higher remaining
  in expansion.
• The latest Japanese wage data beat
  expectations. As a reminder the BoJ is focusing on wage growth to decide
  whether to tweak its monetary policy.
• The market expects the BoJ to keep
  interest rates unchanged at the next meeting as well.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see
that USDJPY managed to fall into the key
trendline around the 146.50 level where it bounced as the sellers might want to
wait for a stronger catalyst before going for the breakout. A break below the
trendline, and especially below the 145.00 handle, will be strong bearish
signals and will likely confirm the top in the pair with the cycle lows being
targeted next.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
lower into the key upward trendline diverged with the MACD. This is generally a
sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. The
sellers should step in around the downward trendline with a defined risk above
it to position for a drop back into the major trendline and target a breakout.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the 150.00
handle.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action around the trendline. What happens here will
likely decide where the pair goes next. A break to the upside should trigger a
rally into the 150.00 handle, while a rejection and a break below the 147.60
level will make things even more interesting as the sellers will target a breakout.

Upcoming Events

Today, the main event will
be the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which missed expectations by a
big margin the last time. A strong report is likely to give another boost to
the US Dollar while weak figures could weigh on the greenback in the short term.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Powell will be making two appearances today but at a similar event at the Spelman College. They are late ones and even more so on a Friday, as he is slated to speak at 1600 GMT and then at 1900 GMT. Here’s the agenda:

The first chat will center around „the challenges of the post-Covid economy“ before the roundtable discussion kicks off later in the day.

Given the setting, it looks like there could be room for Powell to be questioned on the Fed outlook and the key thing to watch out for now will be his remarks on interest rates. And that will be even more crucial now especially after Fed governor Waller’s remarks earlier this week here.

Will Powell double down on that or will he push back against what Waller had mentioned when it comes to rate cuts and the timing of easing monetary policy? That is the main thing to keep an eye out for.

It is also important to get a sense of what markets have priced in going into Powell’s appearance later today. Right now, there is roughly 115 bps worth of rate cuts priced in for the Fed for next year alone. The first rate cut is priced in for May right now and personally, I think we’re at the limit already in terms of pricing in added dovishness for the Fed.

The current pricing suggests that we are going to see rate cuts come within six months and that is nowhere near what the Fed had suggested with their earlier talk of higher rates for longer. So, are traders getting it wrong or is the Fed eventually going to cave in? I guess we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) remains a highly watched stock in the market, with its daily price movements offering significant insights for investors. Equipped with an updated chart featuring detailed price labels, this analysis will integrate these specific price points to offer a refined perspective for both swing traders and long-term holders considering their positions in TSLA. For those interested in other stocks hub page, check out our ddaily updates stocks page and choose a stock symbol that may interest you,

Swing Trader Analysis for TSLA STOCK: KEY PRICE LEVELS

• Resistance Retreat: TSLA’s price pulling back from the 1st upper VWAP line at $240.88, after a bearish candle, indicates a short-term resistance area.
• Downward Journey: The price decrease from the VAH line at $252.75 suggests a potential trajectory towards the POC line at $235.59.
• Support Levels: Should the downtrend persist, the next support is at the VWAP line at $228.6, followed by the VAL line at $220.73.

Price Forecast for Tesla Swing Traders: Key Support and Resistance to Monitor

• Immediate Resistance for TSLA stock: The 2nd and 3rd upper VWAP lines at $252.80 and $264.73, respectively, serve as crucial short-term ceilings.
• Potential Support Reversal for TSLA stock: The POC at $235.59 may provide a rebound point, while the lower VWAP lines at $217.04 and $205.11 offer subsequent support levels.

Long-Term Investor Insights: Strategic Price Points for Tesla stock

• Evaluating Entry and Exit: The current pullback near the upper VWAP lines suggests a re-evaluation of entry points, with the POC at $235.59 acting as a potential accumulation zone.
• Monitoring Lower Supports: The VAL at $220.73 and the lower VWAP bands ($217.04, $205.11, and $193.19) are critical for determining long-term support strength.

Conclusion: Strategic Investment Decisions Ahead for TSLA Traders and Investors

The detailed daily chart of TSLA presents specific price levels that are instrumental for traders and investors. Swing traders can leverage the resistance and support labels to make precise moves, while long-term investors may find these levels helpful for assessing the stock’s value and making informed decisions. Understanding these price points, in conjunction with TSLA’s market activity, is vital for navigating investment strategies effectively.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.