For the 10am NY cut, there are some huge expiries today, both in the 1.0650 range and 1.0450 range.

The euro options expirations aren’t the only notable ones with some big Aussie numbers rolling off, particularly at 0.6400, which will surely be in play with AUD/USD trading at 0.6365.

Details:

• EUR/USD: 1.0450 (3.4B), 1.0500-10 (2.5B), 1.0550-60 (2.7B)
  1.0575-80 (1.2B), 1.0600 (900M), 1.0640-50 (3.4B), 1.0685 (2.8B)

• USD/CHF: 0.9030 (800M), 0.9160 (600M), 0.9250 (300M)
• EUR/GBP: 0.8610 (350M), 0.8785 (400M)
• GBP/USD: 1.2100 (400M), 1.2175 (814M), 1.2200 (850M), 1.2225 (1B)
  1.2250 (485M)
• AUD/USD: 0.6300 (1.5B), 0.6350 (700M), 0.6380-85 (1.3B)
  0.6390-0.6400 (4.3B)
• NZD/USD: 0.5880-90 (640M), 0.5940 (200M), 0.5990-95 (600M)
• USD/CAD: 1.3625 (1.5B), 1.3665 (680M), 1.3750 (340M)
• USD/JPY: 148.75 (360M)
  149.00 (895M), 149.35-50 (2.5BLN), 150.00 (2.1BLN)

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting.
• The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
  as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
  showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
  of the year with less rate cuts in 2024.
• Fed Chair Powell
  reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully as
  they are trying to find the optimal level of rates. Powell also added that the
  soft landing is not the base case at the moment, although they are aiming for
  it.
• The latest US Core PCE
  came
  in line with expectations with disinflation continuing steady.
• The labour market
  displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid as seen also with
  another strong beat in Jobless Claims
  yesterday and with the beat in Job Openings.
• The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat
  expectations while the ISM Services PMI came in
  line with forecasts in another sign that the US economy remains resilient.
• The miss in the ADP report led to
  some USD weakness which might continue if the NFP data misses forecasts.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike again at
  the moment.

Australia:

• The
  RBA kept interest rates unchanged as expected as they are seeing inflation
  returning to target with the current level of interest rates.
• The
  latest monthly CPI showed that core inflation is
  slowing.
• The
  labour market is weakening as we got a big miss
  in July and the bulk of jobs added in August were part time.
• The
  Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction while
  the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The
  market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting as well.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the AUDUSD pair
recently broke out of the range and pulled back into the broken support now turned resistance which
might end up in a classic “break and retest” pattern. This is where the sellers
should step in with a defined risk above the resistance to
target the 0.6168 level.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have also
the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence and the
price is indeed reacting to the resistance as we already got a double
rejection, which might end up in a double top pattern.
The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish
setup and position for a rally back into the 0.6500 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a trendline that
should confirm the bearish setup in case the price breaks below it. In fact, we
can expect more sellers to pile in on a break while the buyers should fold,
ultimately increasing the bearish momentum. The buyers, on the other hand, are
likely to lean on the trendline to position for a rally into the 0.65
resistance.

Upcoming Events

Today it’s all about the NFP report which is the only one the Fed will
see before its next rate decision. The US jobs data going into the NFP was
strong, so the expectations might be skewed to the upside.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.