Yesterday we got another strong US jobs report as
the Job Openings data
beat expectations by a big margin. Coupled with the last week’s beat in Jobless Claims and this
week ISM Manufacturing PMI, the
market is starting to lose faith in a quick return to lower interest rates and
might even fear higher rates. Overall, the data is still supporting the soft
landing narrative but the market shouldn’t be priced for neither higher rates
nor a hard landing.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite remains under pressure and the fall back below the key support is a bad
omen for the buyers. The buyers should keep on defending this level and target
a rally into the downward trendline, but if
the price breaks the low, the sellers are likely to pile in even more
aggressively and take the price into the next support around the 12274 level.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite bounced on the key support and pulled back into the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
where it found strong sellers waiting for another leg lower. The buyers will
need the price to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to turn
around the trend and target new highs.

Nasdaq Composite
Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the low
around the 12965 which is going to be the last line of defence for the buyers
and might turn into a double bottom pattern.
This is where we are likely to see the buyers stepping in with a defined risk
below the low to position for a rally into the highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the low to pile in even more
aggressively and extend the drop into the 12274 support.

Upcoming
Events

Today on the agenda we have the ADP report and the
ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we will see the latest Jobless Claims data, which
continues to show a solid labour market. Finally on Friday, it will be the time
for the NFP report which is the only one the Fed will see before its next rate
decision.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Economic activity likely to remain subdued in the coming months
• Labour market remains resilient
• Underlying price pressures remain strong

Just some token remarks there by de Guindos. Nothing that we don’t already know from the ECB previously.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Dollar down slightly as the bond selling comes off the boil for now
• The bond rout cools off a little, for now at least
• ECB’s Centeno: Inflation is falling faster than when it was rising
• Eurozone August retail sales -1.2% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• Eurozone August PPI +0.6% vs +0.6% m/m expected
• Eurozone September final services PMI 48.7 vs 48.4 prelim
• UK September final services PMI 49.3 vs 47.2 prelim
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 29 September -6.0% vs -1.3% prior
• Saudi Arabia reaffirms will continue voluntary oil output cuts until end of December

Markets:

• GBP leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 1.5 bps to 4.787%
• Gold up 0.1% to $1,824.08
• WTI crude down 2.0% to $87.47
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $27,580

As we got into European morning trade, yields were running hot once again and we saw 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.88%. That kept the dollar more bid while equities were smashed lower, with S&P 500 futures marked down by 0.6%.

But as the session trudged along, yields reversed lower in a welcome relief for broader markets after yesterday’s moves.

The greenback lost ground and is sitting lower on the day while S&P 500 futures turned things around to be up 0.1% currently, as 10-year Treasury yields fall down to 4.78%.

It’s a bit part relief for the most part and perhaps a tentative one as we still have US trading to navigate through.

EUR/USD moved up from 1.0460 to 1.0500 while AUD/USD recovered some poise from 0.6290 to 0.6320-30 currently. Meanwhile, despite Tokyo intervention, USD/JPY is largely steady at around 148.95 but was hovering closer to 149.10-20 levels earlier in the day.

With US ADP employment data coming up, the focus stays on the bond market (and how that impacts broader sentiment) still ahead of the Friday jobs report.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.3%
• Market index 178.2 vs 189.6 prior
• Purchase index 136.6 vs 144.8 prior
• Refinance index 384.6 vs 411.7 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.53% vs 7.41% prior

Mortgage activity plunged further in the past week as the average rate of the most popular US home loan rises another 12 bps to 7.53% – its highest since November 2000.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.