The EURUSD is rotating back lower in the US afternoon. The pair moved higher as Fed Powell (may not have to tighten as much due to banks slow lending), and the debt ceiling talk stall sent rates lower and the USD lower with it.

Technically, the price for the EURUSD moved above its 100-day MA at 1.0807 but stalled ahead of the falling 100-hour MA (blue line currently at 1.0832). The high reached 1.0828. Buyers turned to sellers.

The price has rotated lower and now trades below its 100-day moving average once again. The current price is trading at 1.0799.

We are heading into the weekend and then into a new trading week, but what is clear from the hourly chart at least is that the price has been able to stay below the 100-hour moving average since May 8. There have been 4 separate tests at lower successive levels, and each test has found willing sellers. The prices also looking to close a week below its 100-day moving average which is a more bearish bias shift.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US 2-year yield is up about 30 basis points on the week trading at 4.296%. The high-yield today reached 4.349% the highest level since March 15, 2023. The move to the upside this week is the largest gain since the week of September 19, 2022, when yields moved up nearly 34 basis points. Ironically, the yield settled at 4.212% that week just 8 basic points away from the current level of 4.296%.

The catalyst to the upside this week was a better tone in regional banks. That took some of the flight to safety flows out of the market and had traders pricing in more Fed cuts into 2024.

The KRE regional bank ETF rose by 7.26% this week.

Boston Fed president Logan yesterday said she would pencil in a 25 basis point hike in June given current economic data. Feds Bullard also tilted toward another 25 basis point hike.

The January fed funds futures now implies 4.65%. That is still below the current target rate of 5.25%, but the implied yield in May reached as low as 4% back on May 4 and 4.22% as recently as May 11.

Although higher, the 2 year yield is still well off its high for 2023 at 5.085% reached on March 8, 2023

Further out the yield curve, the 10-year yield is up 25 basis points this week, or 6.599%. That is its largest 1 week gain since December 19, 2022 week. The yield today moved to a high of 3.719% which is the highest level since March 13, 2023. The high-yield in 2023 reached 4.089% on March 2. The high cycle yield was back on October 21, 2022 at 4.335%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.