• Trouble begins to brew for stocks again
• Treasury yields feel heavy towards the end of the week
• Bond bulls make a bit of a stand for now
• USD/JPY eyes back-to-back down days as upside momentum stalls
• UK July retail sales -1.2% vs -0.5% m/m expected
• Eurozone July final CPI +5.3% vs +5.3% y/y prelim

Markets:

• JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.5%
• US 10-year yields down 5.7 bps to 4.223%
• Gold up 0.2% to $1,892.90
• WTI crude down 0.5% to $79.98
• Bitcoin down 4.2% to $26,479

It all started with bonds being more bid as the bulls are making a bit of a stand since yesterday. 10-year yields in the US clipped 4.30% then and tested the high from October last year but are seen falling back all the way to 4.22% currently.

That did not trigger much significant moves in markets early on but things are now picking up as we move towards US trading.

Once again, stocks just can’t get off the floor as sentiment worsened akin to a more risk-off wave. US futures were dragged lower with tech shares leading the downside while European indices are now pushing 1% losses across the board.

USD/JPY was softer earlier on but stuck around 145.30-40 levels for the most part during the session, even with the developments in the bond market and equities.

But the dollar itself is finding a light bid now amid the softer risk tones, though it is just holding a light advance against the pound, franc, and aussie mostly. Speaking of the pound, UK retail sales data disappointed once again and that is a bit trigger for offers as well during the session. GBP/USD is down 0.3% to 1.2705 currently.

It’s now over to Wall Street to make do with the negative sentiment in markets. The theme as of late tends to be late selling in risk, but what will traders and investors do now when risk is already turning ugly ahead of the open for once?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Equities are extending losses on the session now with US futures continuing to dribble lower. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.4% with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% and Dow futures down 0.3% on the day.

On the surface, with bond yields tracking lower today, it looks like a risk-off wave is hitting markets. But I want to say that the bid in bonds appear to be more of a coincidence – at least in part – considering we saw 10-year yields in the US testing the key 4.30% mark yesterday.

Sure, China worries are a legitimate concern and I acknowledged the risks to that here. But whatever the case might be, this is not a good look for equities whatsoever. If higher bond yields were weighing on sentiment before, lower bond yields as a result of global economic worries are also not supportive. Then, what else is there to work with for stocks at the moment?

In FX, the dollar is starting to inch ahead as well as it pushes to the highs for the day – even though the changes are still relatively minor. EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.0860 while GBP/USD is down 0.3% to 1.2705. The aussie is also at the lows for the day now, down 0.3% to 0.6385 against the greenback.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It looked like the bond market rout was going to extend at some point yesterday but the bulls are putting up quite a bit of fight at the first key test. 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.30%, which is a critical juncture on the charts, and so far that level is holding.

In the context of the rise in yields since last week, this isn’t much but it is already undoing the moves higher on Wednesday and Thursday this week.

It is but the first test of the 4.30% mark, so I’d caution against early thinking that this is where the bond market turns around.

Economic concerns continue to linger, especially from China, but bond traders have braved past that for many days already now. I can’t quite see how all of a sudden it becomes the main issue for a turnaround in sentiment. Not least when there is still plenty of talk about the waves of supply in Treasuries, which quietly might be the driving factor behind the move higher in yields since last month.

In any case, this continues to be the place to watch as we approach the end of the week. So far, it hasn’t quite have much reverberations to broader markets though. The dollar is mostly steadier and keeping mixed/little changed while equities are still slumping regardless, with US futures down on the day and pinning European indices lower as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Fed
is waiting for the totality of the data to be released before deciding what to
do at their September meeting. As of now, the data supports the soft-landing
narrative as the disinflation in the core measures
continues but the strength in the labour market and consumer spending might
keep inflation higher for longer. This is something that might translate into
more rate hikes or a “higher for longer-er” stance. Recently the long-term
Treasury yields have been rising non-stop and this has benefited the US Dollar
but the reason for such a rally is still unclear.

On the other hand, the BoJ kept everything unchanged as expected but implicitly tweaked
the YCC policy keeping the target band unchanged but giving more flexibility
with a hard cap at 1.00%. So, they basically widened the YCC band without
stating it explicitly. This has created lots of volatility in the JPY, but
eventually led to a fast depreciation. The BoJ has also already intervened
twice to smooth the rise in yields ultimately weighing on the JPY. Today, the Japanese CPI data surprised to the upside with
the core-core reading rising further.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see
that USDJPY broke above the previous high at the 145.00 handle and the breakout
might point to a rally towards the 150.00 level. We recently retested the resistance turned support and what
happens next will decide if we go higher or lower as a fall back below the
145.00 handle should point to a deeper pullback. Note also that the
145.00-150.00 range is considered the “intervention territory” for the BoJ.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
recently fell below the red 21 moving average which
was acting as a great dynamic support. Maybe it’s an early sign of reversal? If
the price falls below the 145.00 handle, the sellers should start to look
forward to it and take the price into the 142.00 handle. We can also notice
that we’ve been diverging with the
MACD and this
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has bounced near the 145.00 support and
it’s now approaching a strong short-term resistance around the 145.60 level
where we have the confluence with
the previous swing low level, the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 moving average. We
can expect the sellers piling in here with a defined risk above the resistance
and target the 142.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the
price to break above the resistance to pile in and extend the rally towards new
highs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The Fed
is waiting for the totality of the data to be released before deciding what to
do at their September meeting. As of now, the data supports the soft-landing
narrative as the disinflation in the core measures
continues but the strength in the labour market and consumer spending might
keep inflation higher for longer. This is something that might translate into
more rate hikes or a “higher for longer-er” stance. Recently the long-term
Treasury yields have been rising non-stop and this has benefited the US Dollar
but the reason for such a rally is still unclear.

The RBNZ, on the other hand, kept its official cash
rate unchanged while stating that it will remain at the restrictive level for
the foreseeable future to ensure that inflation comes down back to target. The
recent New Zealand inflation and employment data surprised to the upside but
the PMIs are in contraction with the Services PMI this week plunging into
contraction. The wage growth has also missed expectations and it’s something
that the central banks are watching closely for second round effects.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD just
keeps on falling with very shallow pullbacks. The breakout of the 0.5987 low
has also opened the door for a fall into the 2022 low at 0.5514. The pair
remains in a “sell on rallies” mode as the trend is clearly bearish with the
price printing lower lows and lower highs and the moving averages crossed
to the downside.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we’ve been diverging with the
MACD for a
while which is a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, if we get a pullback, there will be a strong resistance at the
previous support turned resistance where we
can also find the trendline and
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where the sellers are likely to pile in with a defined risk above the
trendline and target the 0.5514 low.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a divergence even on this shorter timeframe as the pair becomes more and
more oversold. The resistance is highlighted by the blue zone and the buyers
will need to break above it and extend the rally past the trendline to have
more conviction for a return towards the highs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.