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BOE’s Bailey: I do not agree that we have lost control of inflation
- There are two substantial base effects that will bring inflation down this year
- The economy has been much more resilient, that is good news
- We were sitting here in November saying it was going to be a long recession
- And that has not transpired
- Unemployment has remained historically very low
He’s not wrong in the sense that at the turn of the year, it was all doom and gloom for the UK economy and things have definitely held up better than anticipated. But what will be worrying is that we are now seeing a downturn in the economy and a lot of the same issues have not gone away or abated significantly. Inflation is still high (especially services inflation), wages are running hot, and the cost-of-living crisis is still ongoing.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
BOE’s Bailey: I will not judge what the path of rates will be
- There is more than one path for rates that may deliver inflation back to target
- We will judge what is most appropriate based on evidence
- We have to balance the risks; there are risks both ways
- Economic projections have weakened since May
He doesn’t want to give much away but he’s not explicitly pushing back against the current market pricing either. I would think that all else being equal, another rate hike in September is likely but anything after will have to be reassessed. In a sense, the BOE is just one meeting behind falling in line with where the Fed and ECB are right now.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.