This is looking like positioning flows ahead of the Fed and BOJ, more than anything else if you ask me. There was a bit of a pop yesterday as well amid light trading to 141.70 before a quick retreat to 141.20 again. That is now followed by a further decline to a low of 140.24 earlier, and we are just off that now.

The downside move also gained some traction after a fall below the 100-hour moving average (red line) earlier. As such, that opens up room to maneuver towards 140.00 next potentially as well.

As much as we are seeing yen bulls get their hopes squandered ahead of the BOJ decision on Friday, there’s still an outside risk of the central bank surprising. And as mentioned here, that would be the biggest surprise definitely this week if it were to happen.

So far today, the drop here is still suggestive of a more mixed dollar mood. EUR/USD is up slightly by 0.15% to 1.1070 but GBP/USD is down 0.05% to 1.2893. Meanwhile, the commodity currencies are also holding lower with USD/CAD inching just above 1.3200 and AUD/USD still down 0.5% to 0.6755 at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The weakness in the global manufacturing sector and
especially in the Chinese economy have been weighing a lot on Copper prices. We
had a good rally after the Chinese inflation data raised the risks of deflation
in China and the market expected more easing measures from the central bank.
Unfortunately, those expectations were wrong and the PBoC didn’t do anything on
the rates front causing a disappointment in the market and another selloff. On
Monday, China pledged more stimulus to support
the economy and Copper prices rallied consequently.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after the news
of more stimulus coming from China, Copper rallied again all the way back to
the key 3.9575 resistance where we
have also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The buyers will need the price to break above this strong level to get the
conviction for more upside and target the 4.1855 swing level.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the first try
of a breakout failed and the price got rejected from the resistance as the
sellers stepped in to position for another low. We can notice that the price
action is forming a major ascending triangle pattern.
The price can break on either side of such patterns, but what follows a
breakout is generally a strong move. So, this is something to watch out for.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is testing a strong support level where we have the previous swing high
level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers may lean on this
level with a defined risk below to target the breakout. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and extend the fall
into the 3.8245 support.

Upcoming Events

The most likely report that can move the
market will be the US Jobless Claims on
Thursday. The data needs to deviate notably from the expected figures though as
numbers more or less in line with expectations are unlikely to be market moving.
Anyway, a big miss should weigh on Copper as the market may get some
recessionary vibes, while a big beat should support the Copper prices as the
soft-landing narrative would remain intact.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.