• USD/JPY brushes against key technical level at seven-week highs
• FDIC accepts JP Morgan bid for First Republic Bank
• What have markets priced in for the key central bank decisions this week?
• Japan April consumer confidence index 35.4 vs 33.9 prior

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European markets closed; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 3.481%
• Gold down 0.1% to $1,988.20
• WTI crude down 2.2% to $75.09
• Bitcoin down 2.6% to $28,578

It was a quiet session for the most part with European markets out for the long weekend amid the Labour Day holiday.

The dollar was steady throughout, with sentiment helped slightly by the news that JP Morgan is set to take over First Republic Bank. That could lead to some follow through moves later in US trading, so just be mindful of that.

The yen is the laggard as it continues to deepen losses from last week, with USD/JPY touching its 200-day moving average just below the 137.00 mark.

Besides that, things were largely slow-moving as market players are waiting to get the week started in Wall Street. The focus in the days ahead will center around key central bank policy decisions and that will set the tone for what to expect in May trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• RBA: 90% probability of no change, 10% probability of 25 bps rate hike (OIS)
• Fed: 92% probability of 25 bps rate hike, 8% probability of no change (Fed funds futures)
• ECB: 81% probability of 25 bps rate hike, 19% probability of 50 bps rate hike (€STR)

Among the three, it is only the ECB pricing that might shift around a little ahead of the Thursday decision. That will be dependent on what we see from the Eurozone CPI data tomorrow, as pointed out earlier here.

The RBA meanwhile will be a rather straightforward one, as they are widely expected to keep the cash rate unchanged. And they are also likely to deliver a similar communique to what we already saw last month.

As for the Fed, that is where things start to get interesting for broader markets. While a 25 bps rate hike is almost certainly a done deal, what comes next is still up in the air for the most part. Will the Fed stick with a higher for longer approach and narrative? Or will they acknowledge that the time is now here to call for a pause?

Whatever the case is, it will definitely have an impact on the Fed funds futures curve.

As things stand, traders are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end and that the Fed will pause after this week’s rate hike.

We shall see whether or not policymakers agree with that view and how Powell will communicate that when the time comes on Wednesday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is sitting mostly higher on the day, with slight gains seen against the euro, pound and yen. Meanwhile, it is holding lower against the aussie with the RBA in focus tomorrow. EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0990 and continues to hang in and around the 1.1000 mark for now:

Buyers are still hoping to try and secure a firm break above 1.1000 with the 2 February high at 1.1033 still proving to be an impediment when you look at the weekly chart. That seems to make clear how EUR/USD is still struggling for an upside break above the 1.1000 mark for the time being.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.4% to 1.2520 and despite the weekly close and break above the 1.2500 mark, buyers are struggling a little to start the new week. A drop back below the figure level would be a massive blow to the momentum gathered on Friday.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is sitting higher around 136.80 at the moment but off its earlier highs as buyers are contesting with key technical resistance from its 200-day moving average as highlighted here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In just one
week, the Finance Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:23) will kick off, taking place
on May 8-10 in South Africa. As one of the biggest events of the year in
Africa, FMAS will represent a coming together of thousands of attendees,
leading brands, executives and more in Johannesburg, South Africa at the luxurious
Sandton Convention Centre.

With
less than two weeks to go until the big event, at attendees are encouraged to familiarize
themselves with the detailed agenda for FMAS:23. This includes the jam-packed schedule
of panels, fireside chats, sessions, workshops, and much more.

The full
agenda for FMAS:23 is already live and can be accessed by the following link. Overall, a
total of four industry verticals are being covered during FMAS:23, with the
online trading, payments, fintech, and blockchain & digital assets spaces
in focus.

Session
Powered by XM | Unlock Your Potential: Trade Your Way to The Top

Get ready to unlock your potential in forex trading in this
session ‚Trade your way to the top‘! powered by XM. The session’s expert panelists
have been there, done that, and are eager to share their best tips, tricks, and
strategies for success.

This will be the focus at one of the event’s most anticipated
fireside chats this May, Unlock Your Potential: Trade Your Way to The Top, taking
place on May 10,
11:40-12:10 at Centre Stage.

After
this discussion, you’ll become an expert in: Navigating market volatility Analyzing
technical and fundamental factors Managing risks like a pro Plus, you’ll hear
about the exciting rewards of forex trading, like the potential to earn big
profits and living YOUR LIFE on YOUR TERMS.

This fireside
chat will include the following talented speakers:

• Avramis
  Despotis, Founder & CEO, Tradepedia
• Reino
  Deetlefs, Chief Instructor – Africa, Tradepedia

According to Mr. Despotis and Mr. Deetlefs, “the
session will emphasize earning big returns on your investment year after year
is a challenging goal that requires careful planning and execution. The
highlight of this session will be the discussion on strategies that we use to
achieve this goal: using leverage, using active trading, using strict risk
controls, and automated tools.”

The
discussion will focus on the following topics: How to navigate market
volatility, analyzing technical and fundamental factors, and managing risks
like a pro.

In
addition, with the latest technology, trading platforms, and educational
resources at your fingertips, the session will help you turn your trading
dreams into reality. So, get inspired and motivated to seize the opportunities
of forex trading to achieve financial freedom. Don’t miss this chance to take
your trading game to the next level!

“At XM, we’re constantly looking for ways to enhance
our products and services. Attending events like FMAS:23 enables us to stay up
to date with industry developments and share our knowledge and expertise with
others in the industry. We’re looking forward to meeting peers, attending
thought-provoking sessions, and learning more about the unique challenges and
opportunities that the South African market presents, so that we can ultimately
provide our clients with the best possible trading experience,” explained Mr.
Despotis and Mr. Deetlefs.

FMAS:23 – The Largest Event in
Africa of the Year

FMAS:23
will no doubt be one of largest events in Africa, attracting premier speakers and
attendees. This includes upwards of 3000+ attendees, 70+ exhibitors, 100+
brokers, and 50+ speakers. These marquee individuals will be available to
discuss, engage, and network throughout FMAS:23.

Of
course, the aforementioned fireside chat is just one of several different
sessions available for attendees at FMAS:23. With such a diverse content track,
there is truly something for all attendees!

Join other
industry leaders, executives, brands, and traders to discuss the future of
trading on the continent, fintech opportunities, and much more.

FMAS:23 will
be attracting the biggest-name talent, noteworthy individuals, and the industry’s
leading brands. All attendees are encouraged to mingle and engage with each
other in what will be an unforgettable event.

See you
in Johannesburg this May!

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

The week will start slow with
a holiday in Europe to observe Labor Day on Monday, but we’ll get some data
from the U.S., like the ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, all eyes will be on
the RBA meeting and cash rate in Australia. Additionally, the U.S. JOLTS Job
Openings data will be released.

Moving to Wednesday, New Zealand
will release their employment change q/q and unemployment rate. The U.S. will
release the ADP Non-Farm Employment change and ISM Services PMI, followed by
the FOMC statement, Federal Funds Rate and FOMC press conference.

Thursday will bring the eurozone
main refinancing rate, monetary policy statement and the ECB press conference.
Finally, on Friday, Switzerland will release their CPI m/m data, while the U.S.
will release the average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change and
the unemployment rate. Canada will also release their employment change and
unemployment rate data on Friday.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI
and Services PMI will provide some clues about the business sector’s
performance in Q2 after a disappointing Q1 impacted by lower demand and high
interest rates. Market analysts expect a slight increase in the U.S. PMI from
46.3 to 46.6, and a rise in the Services PMI to 51.6 from 51.2.

The market anticipates that
the RBA will maintain the current interest rates at this week’s meeting,
similar to their decision at the last meeting. Despite the persistent high
inflation in Australia, there are indications that it may have reached its
peak, prompting the Bank to adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the effects
of monetary policy decisions. According to Governor Lowe’s remarks after the
RBA’s last meeting, holding the rates unchanged did not necessarily mean that
hikes had come to an end.

For the March JOLTS Job
openings data the consensus is for a drop to 9.74M from 9.93M, but Citi
analysts actually expect a slight rise to 10.1M following an unexpected drop in
February. Even with that drop, job openings are currently at a higher number
than pre-pandemic levels.
The upcoming data for New Zealand includes the Q1 Employment Change, with a
consensus for it to remain unchanged at 0.2%, as well as the unemployment rate,
which is expected to rise slightly from 3.4% to 3.5%. The participation rate is
likely to remain at 71.7%. These data are crucial for the RBNZ, which needs to
see evidence of a labor market easing and a cooling down of inflation before
pausing the rate hiking cycle.
The market expects a 25bps rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, followed by
a pause to assess the effectiveness of the current monetary policy. Chair
Powell will probably be questioned about the possible end of the hiking cycle,
but he’s likely to reiterate the Fed’s data-dependency approach and avoid a
straight answer. Questions about the ongoing stress in the financial sector may
also be raised during the meeting.
This week, the focus will be on the inflation data for the eurozone, as it
could provide insight into the ECB’s upcoming meeting on Thursday. Following a
rise in core inflation in March, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized
that more tightening is likely, stating that „the current data are
indicating that we should raise rates again.“ The market consensus is for
a 25bps rate hike at the May meeting, followed by another 25bps hike in June.
It is anticipated that y/y headline inflation data for April will run hot.
Despite mixed recent data, the job market remains tight in the United States.
Analysts predict that payroll growth will slow from 236K to 180K, while average
hourly earnings m/m are expected to remain stable at 0.3%, and the unemployment
rate is anticipated to rise from 3.5% to 3.6%.
„The labor force participation rate also rose for a fourth straight
month,“ Wells Fargo analysts said. „But falling hiring plans and job
openings point to demand for workers continuing to trend lower.“

For the Canadian economy the
employment change is expected to drop from 34.7K to 22.6K and the unemployment
rate to rise from 5% to 5.1%.

This article was written
by Gina Constantin.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.