• Dollar nudges higher as stocks, yields stay anchored
• Major central banks confirm to revert back to weekly dollar swaps with the Fed
• ECB’s Lane: Further rate hikes beyond May will depend on the data
• ECB’s Villeroy: Inflation will probably come down towards 2% at the end of 2024
• BOE’s Broadbent: Had we seen inflation shocks coming, we would’ve tightened policy sooner
• Switzerland March trade balance CHF 4.53 billion vs CHF 3.31 billion prior
• UK April CBI trends total orders -20 vs -20 expected

Markets:

• JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.5%
• US 10-year yields down 7 bps to 3.445%
• Gold down 0.5% to $1,978.43
• WTI crude down 0.8% to $78.13
• Bitcoin down 0.2% to $27,415

The dollar is getting a bit of love again after a rough start to the new week, as stocks and bond yields are looking heavier today. It’s tough to balance out the narratives in broader markets at the moment but here’s my take on things.

As the risk mood is leaning towards the softer side, the dollar is seen nudging higher in European trading with EUR/USD falling from 1.1050 to 1.1010 on the session. The pair is flanked by a large set of option expiries, so there is also that to consider before they roll off later in the day.

GBP/USD also extended its fall from Asia, when it hit a high of 1.2500, to 1.2430 as sellers start to wrestle back near-term control. The aussie is the laggard as risk trades are on the defensive, with AUD/USD down 0.7% to 0.6650 levels at the moment.

Equities were sluggish throughout, with European indices opening lower and consolidating losses so far on the day. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are also feeling heavy and have kept lower since Asia trading already.

With the dollar inching higher and risk staying subdued, gold is marked lower again to contest daily support at $1,981 – as it has been doing since last week. Then, we are also seeing oil slip back by nearly 1% towards $78 ahead of US trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Lower rates weighed on the dollar yesterday but are not really working against the greenback in trading so far today. In part, I would say the softer mood in equities is helping to reaffirm a more risk-off approach and that is perhaps helping to see the dollar nudge a little higher now.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1018 with GBP/USD keeping a rejection from 1.2500 earlier to 1.2450 at the moment. The former is sandwiched between large option expiries with the highs also limited around a large one at 1.1050-60. Meanwhile, here’s a snapshot of price action in the latter:

As you can see, price is slowly inching towards the confluence of the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.2442-43. Stay above and buyers will keep near-term control but break below and sellers will take charge of the near-term momentum instead.

Elsewhere, AUD/USD is down 0.6% to 0.6655 as the aussie stays pressured amid a softer stance in risk trades. Oil is down 0.7% to $78.18 and that is helping USD/CAD climb up 0.4% to 1.3590 as well. And we are seeing gold tick lower as well by 0.3% to $1,982 as sellers continue to contest daily support at around $1,981 since last week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily chart below for the AUDUSD,
we can see that the price has failed again to break above the 0.6781 resistance where we have also the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. The last failure came as the US
Retail Sales missed expectations across the board giving the
market recessionary vibes and sending the price lower.

This double failure may turn into
a double
top within a
correction, which is a nice bearish setup for the sellers. Last Friday’s US
PMIs beat forecasts but failed to lift the risk sentiment as the market is
increasingly worried about the rise in Jobless Claims and new lows in the regional
PMIs.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the market has been ranging for quite some time. Such choppy markets
are the worst for traders. The levels are defined though with the support at
0.6620 and the resistance at 0.6790.

The best strategy is generally to
sit out and wait for a breakout accompanied by a clear fundamental catalyst.
While traders can also “play the range” buying at support and selling at
resistance, this is generally a more risky and often hard to implement
strategy.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price is now targeting the bottom of the range. At the moment
there isn’t much to do for traders as there is no strong level to lean on. The
next key level will be the 0.6620 support where the buyers are likely to pile
in with defined risk below the range and the top of the range as target.

The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see a breakout before jumping onboard and target first the low at
0.6563 and then a new lower low.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

He won’t be the only one running for re-election, as this tees up a rematch between himself and Trump. Here’s the video announcement:

Every generation has a moment where they have had to stand up for democracy. To stand up for their fundamental freedoms. I believe this is ours.That’s why I’m running for reelection as President of the United States. Join us. Let’s finish the job. https://t.co/V9Mzpw8Sqy pic.twitter.com/Y4NXR6B8ly

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) April 25, 2023

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -20

UK factory orders contracted once again, with the monthly reading unchanged from March – which was a more than two-year low. The positive news is that quarterly business optimism improved to -2 from -5 previously and while still in negative territory, is at least the highest reading since October 2021.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.