Headlines:

• Dollar keeps steadier so far on the session
• Gold remains undaunted as the run higher continues
• Weekly update on interest rate expectations
• ECB’s Šimkus says lower rates possible if disinflation gets entrenched
• ECB’s Šimkus: Policy will clearly become less restrictive from here
• ECB’s Kažimír says all options are on the table for December meeting
• Germany September PPI -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 18 October CHF 462.3 bn vs CHF 467.1 bn prior

Markets:

• CHF leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
• US 10-year yields up 4.3 bps to 4.128%
• Gold up 0.6% to $2,736.00
• WTI crude up 2.3% to $70.81
• Bitcoin down 0.1% to $68,325

It was a quiet session but there were some decent moves in broader markets.

Of note, equities trended lower after a more pensive start and alongside higher yields, it pushed the dollar a little higher during the session.

EUR/USD moved down from 1.0860 to 1.0845 while USD/JPY notably gained from a low of 149.10 in Asia to clip the 150.00 mark briefly. As equities are slightly softer, the antipodeans are lagging with AUD/USD falling back below its 100-day moving average – down 0.3% to 0.6685.

US futures gradually nudged lower during the session, with little catalysts in general. The same goes for European indices and this is pretty much weighing on broader sentiment. Tech shares are leading declines with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% and Nasdaq futures down 0.6%.

The overall market mood is more mixed though with bonds being offered. Higher Treasury yields is helping to underpin USD/JPY as such.

In the commodities space, gold continues to shine ever so brightly in a push to fresh record highs again near $2,736. Up, up, and away we go.

Looking to US trading, there won’t be much catalysts on the agenda so traders will continue to be left to their own devices to start the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• December meeting is wide open
• Will be in a strong position to ease further if accelerated pace of disinflation continues
• Increasingly confident that disinflation path is on solid footing
• But still need more evidence, especially on services inflation

Well, unless the economy miraculously bounces back in the final quarter of the year, it will be tough for the ECB to fight the narrative of another rate cut. As things stand, traders have fully priced in a 25 bps move for December.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Last Friday, the PBoC
announced new easing measures which included further rate cuts and stock buyback
funding. Moreover, we got
some positive economic
data with Retail Sales
and Industrial Production beating expectations by a big margin. These catalysts
provided support for copper which erased most of last week’s losses.

Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that copper bounced around the 4.32 support zone where we had also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. This is where the buyers stepped
in and then increased the bullish bets following the new easing measures
announcement from the PBoC.

The sellers will want to
see the price turning around and breaking below the 4.32 support to start
targeting the trendline around the 4.20 level.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the downward trendline increasing the bullish
momentum as more buyers piled in. The first target should be the swing level at
4.51 which the buyers will need to break to extend the rally into the 4.70
resistance next. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the
4.51 level to position for a drop back into the 4.32 support.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further
upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to position for a drop
back into the 4.32 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is pretty empty on the data front with market moving releases scheduled
for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the Flash Japanese and US
PMIs, and the US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The ranges for the day aren’t overly interesting but the dollar is seen holding a slight edge in European morning trade. It comes as Treasury yields are pushing higher as well, allowing for some light action on the session. USD/JPY is now marked up by 0.3% to 149.95 from a low of 149.10 in Asia earlier in the day.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY remains pinned closer to the 150.00 mark and that remains a key level to watch. There is also key resistance closer to the 50.0 Fib retracement level and the 100-day moving average (red line) near 150.76 currently. So, that is the bigger technical region in play for now.

Besides that, GBP/USD is down 0.2% to 1.3020 and AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6690 currently. The latter is in an interesting spot as it slips back below its own 100-day moving average of 0.6695.

The moves are coming as bond yields are seen nudging higher again today. 10-year Treasury yields are up another 3 bps to 4.116% with 2-year yields at 3.982% on the day. The former is seeing a bounce after testing the 4% mark last week, with bond sellers drawing a line at the key level.

There’s not much else to work with besides flow movement in European trading thus far. The economic calendar to start the week isn’t anything enticing. So, traders will be left to deal with the technical plays and getting a feel of trading sentiment with each passing session.

That until we get the next key catalyst to really move markets. And that might not come until later in the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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