<p class=“MsoNormal“>It’s the great mystery of the social media age: This person makes that
much money doing what?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A mental step back, maybe a cup of tea, and a few moments of collected
thought will probably lead you to some obvious if annoying truths:</p><ol type=“1″ start=“1″>
<li class=“MsoNormal“>That
one is extremely
good-looking and is a 7-out-of-10 dancer.</li>
<li class=“MsoNormal“>This
one knows how to change
their personality so that it connects with small children</li>
<li class=“MsoNormal“>The one over there is really good at a particular video game.</li>
</ol><p class=“MsoNormal“>That’s all pretty reasonable in today’s influencer economy.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>But there are still some inexplicable outliers. Why, at the bottom of
your friend requests, are there so many people who apparently made their
fortunes from forex trading? And why are they wearing the same aviator
sunglasses, posed against the same expensive but tasteless cars, looking out
over the same sunset vistas? And who carries around a briefcase full of cash,
really?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Forex is a portmanteau derived from foreign exchange. As a financial
vertical, foreign exchange investment is traditionally in the form of arbitrage
opportunities. Sums of money are moved between different currencies in order to
take advantage of small discrepancies in exchange rates, turning a profit. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Forex fraudsters, that’s who. And their lavish insta-lifestyles are as
fake as the opportunities they offer.</p><p>What
Are Forex Scams?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A typical example might look like: a forex investor exchanges USD to
euros, then euros to Hungarian forints, forints to RMB, then back into USD,
perhaps ending up with a profit of 0.2% of their initial investment. With a
0.2% ROI, very large sums of money have to be wielded in order to make a
worthwhile profit – 0.2% of one million dollars is $2000.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Forex fraud, thus, is any sort of malicious activity <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.nerdwallet.com/uk/investing/forex-scams/“ target=“_blank“>within the forex vertical</a>. In a general sense,
any activity where information was misrepresented, and that information led to
a foreign exchange investment that never had a realistic chance of developing
returns, could be considered forex fraud. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>While there are certainly enterprise-level scams within the forex
exchange community, the most common example of forex fraud for most people will
happen in their <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/3-tips-for-searching-proper-financial-advice-on-tiktok-20220615/“ target=“_blank“>social media channels</a>. </p><p>What Do Forex Scams Look Like?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Many forex scams du jour will generally be promoted by a network of
“affiliate marketers”. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>These accounts will be fine-tuned to capture the imaginations of the
vulnerable, touting designer brands, imported cars, exotic vacations, and of
course inexplicable wads of cash. The lifestyle shown will be presented as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/1bee6bdc-9cc6-4415-84fc-6536ec31d46c“ target=“_blank“>something easily achievable</a>, or as an
as-yet-undiscovered secret. With true marketing team savvy, the text will be
optimized to be eye-catching, with exciting statistics and evocative emojis.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In August 2022, a BBC special recounted how unlicensed traders stole
£3.8 million from legitimate forex customers by manipulating them with false
signals and not letting them access their funds.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>At this point, many people might notice the strangely empty,
movie-set-like quality of the posted photos. There may even be a small,
instinctual voice that says, “something’s not quite right here”. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>But maybe not.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>If this at-a-glance marketing ploy is successful, a potential victim
may start reading the content of the fraudulent forex trader. Their posts will
promise huge returns on relatively small investments, taking advantage of
newbie enthusiasm and pitfalls in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Tag/trading-psychology“ target=“_blank“>trading psychology</a>. They might be willing to share the
secrets of their success, provided you join their investment group – membership
payable via BTC only.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>From here, even without knowing that a huge return on a small
investment is impossible in forex
trading, all but the most impressionable will turn back. But the
impressionable, the never-before-scammed, make up a significant number of
people, and a significant potential return for fraudsters.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>After converting their fiat currency to Bitcoin and sending the initial
investment, the victim will be invited to a group on a messenger app like
WhatsApp. There, the fraudster will assure them that their money is available
anytime – it’s actually already gone – and their investment is reversible and
covered by SEC/FCA mandate – it’s not. In the group chat, each “investor’s”
money can be seen increasing in value, potentially leading them to invest even
more, but attempts to withdraw it will be met with threats. Eventually,
inevitably, the number will zero out, or nearly so. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A small consolation: after the Bitcoin left the victim’s account, their
return was always going to be zero anyway.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>There will be no recourse for recouping the lost money. Cryptocurrency
in general has no infrastructure to trigger an automatic reimbursement. Contacting
the apparently wealthy original influencer will result in no solutions. After
all, that influencer was always just an affiliate marketer, posing for pictures
in a lifestyle that an offshore, investment bank paid for.</p><p>Forex Fraud on the Rise</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Social media-based forex fraudsters have settled on a working formula
when it comes to enticing new victims. Their Instagram pages are designed to
make young peoples’ get-rich-quick brains percolate.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>For the most connected and tech-capable generations, it’s much more
likely to rub shoulders with a fraudster than in the unconnected world. By the
same avenue that the internet and social media make the world smaller and
closer together, so too do they connect the young and innocent with the cynical
and malicious.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Many of us learn our most valuable lessons through the process of trial
and error. We might waste five dollars getting upsold, or get scammed out of
twenty by trusting the wrong person. Relatively small mistakes, and ones that
can inform your inner trust barometer when you find yourself being pursued by a
forex “influencer”.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>However, getting duped by a forex fraudster running a glorified Ponzi scheme is a decidedly more expensive
first lesson to learn. Keeping educated on the potential dangers and warning
signs is a less expensive option, albeit less tearful and thus potentially less
effective.</p><p>Tips for Spotting Forex Scams</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Even if you have a skeptical brain from a lifetime of experience,
shifting those experiences to social media can be a challenge. What do the
traditional, on-the-ground scams you’re already familiar with look like when
they’re on Instagram? What’s the forex fraud equivalent of three-card monte?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>What sophisticated, efficient fraud prevention does involves
scrutinizing a user’s behavior at various touchpoints, enriching what we can
observe with additional data points to determine the likelihood they are
malicious. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>What does this look like on the side of platforms, exactly? There are
ample examples, based on the industry. For example, in banking, digital onboarding can be a
challenge because challenger banks look for the most seamless, user-friendly
experience but they still cannot afford to become victims of fraud.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>So the idea is to gather data at this stage and evaluate it behind the
scenes. This applies to forex, too. Digital onboarding, authentication,
know-your-user protocols, deposits, payouts, and several other customer actions
can all be studied in real-time to assess how risky they are.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A high score indicates a high risk of fraud. Similarly, here is a list
of potential red flags that your brain should be considering when someone
approaches you on Instagram with a too-good-to-be-true deal (adjust your
personal risk threshold accordingly):</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Unsolicited contact: Serious investment bankers don’t “cold call” through
Instagram. An unknown person reaching out to you offering a great opportunity
is actually offering anything but.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
“Risk-free” or “No downturn” investments: No investment is risk-free, and every market
has periods of downturn. Characterizing an investment opportunity as either of
these things is an obvious misrepresentation, and should be treated carefully.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Requests for personal information: Not exclusive to forex scams, anyone
approaching you online asking for personal info should be kept at a distance.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Dangling unrealistic returns: Wordings like guarantees of large returns on
small investments, or being just a few steps away from wealth if you just continue down this path, should
make you wary, as no such investment opportunities actually exist.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Unconvincing clout: Forex scammers will be trying to convince you of their
legitimacy, and will often overshoot reasonability. The person with the lavish
Instagram account will also be a VP, cite other big investors, or be sitting on
a big secret they’re willing to let you in on. People with real clout like this
don’t go about advertising it, particularly to strangers.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>●
Suspicious velocity/currency: Scammers will want to “close deals” by
impressing a sense of urgency on the “deal”. There may be only hours or days to
become an investor, pressuring you into making a fast (bad) decision. As well,
payment via a method that you aren’t familiar with is an easy way to keep you
rattled and compliant. Be wary of people asking you to pay in BTC or through an
app you’re unfamiliar with.</p><p>Staying Frosty and Fraud-Free</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Though it’s unadvisable to invest money through anything but a trusted
broker, there are ways to keep yourself as secure as possible beyond a cagey
disposition and good working knowledge of the fraud landscape.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Real-time data lookups give you a massive pool of information on any
(legit) online persona. This way, personal data points provided by an
apparently legitimate “forex trader” can be checked for validity. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>You will find out how risk-prone this person is based on their device,
connection details, and overall digital footprint, or if they appear on any
sanctioned lists like PEP or OFAC. If they have provided a fake name, you will
see just how unrealistic the digital presence of Thick McRunfast is, and why
they should not be trusted.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>And why should forex platforms care? Simply put, users reward good
service, and punish those platforms that do not protect them. At the very
least, a platform may incur chargeback requests and consumer complaints. So
everyone benefits from the prevention of forex fraud. Everyone except
fraudsters, that is.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Though there is no definitive way to ward off the occasional bout of
gullibility, having a strong checklist for suspicious behavior is a good
fallback plan when interacting online. Fraud-fighting technology provides a
massive digital checklist, but the other half of the battle is making sure you
have your own.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a brutal day once again for the dollar as it is seen down over 1% against the likes of the euro, pound, aussie and kiwi today. The post-CPI rally in markets is continuing and that is weighing heavily on the dollar once again. EUR/USD has now run up to its 200-day moving average (blue line) and the resistance point will be a key one to watch in gauging if the pair has the appetite for an upside leg extension:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The 200-day moving average rests at 1.0427, so keep an eye on that ahead of the daily close.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also surging up by over 1% to fresh highs in seven weeks:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pair is trading to 1.1870-80 levels now as buyers solidify the break above the 100-day moving average (red line) and key trendline resistance (white line) above 1.1600. A move towards 1.2000 looks more than likely before stalling.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down 0.5% to near 139.00 as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-turns-lower-as-dollar-slips-to-start-the-session-20221115/“ target=“_blank“>downside pressure stays the course</a> while AUD/USD is up to 0.6770 and looking towards extending the upside push above its own 100-day moving average <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-moves-up-to-two-month-highs-amid-dollar-selloff-20221115/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is now a case of sell the dollar, buy everything else. The greenback is being hammered lower again today as broader market sentiment continues to recover strongly after last week’s softer US CPI data. 10-year Treasury yields are now down to its lowest in over five weeks, down another 7 bps today to 3.795%:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, equities are also keeping firmer with S&P 500 futures up 29 points, or 0.7%, and Nasdaq futures seen up 1.3% on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This is all pretty much a continuation of the relief rally from last week as the technicals point to added momentum across the board. Fedspeak remains the only real threat to the rebound and so far, we’re <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-little-bit-of-this-a-little-bit-of-that-20221115/“ target=“_blank“>not getting a clear sense</a> that policymakers are going to push back too strongly.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>GDP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The reading reaffirms a slight expansion in the euro area economy in Q3, with employment also seen up 0.2% on the quarter as well. It’s the least of the worries with a winter recession looming going into next year for most parts of Europe.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -72.2</li><li>Expectations -36.7 vs -50.0 expected</li><li>Prior -59.2</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The readings are a beat on estimates as the indicator of economic sentiment ticks higher again in November. That said, this comes after months of decline (a sharp one at that) so the overall outlook remains rather subdued at best. The better sentiment is said to be related to the hope that inflation will come down soon. Well, we shall see.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The greenback continues to keep in a good spot so far today, maintaining its advance from Asia trading as we see a pause to the relief rally in broader markets. S&P 500 futures are down 17 points, or 0.4%, while 10-year Treasury yields are up over 6 bps to 3.89% currently and that is keeping the dollar in pole position in the major currencies space.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is down 0.7% to 1.0283 after backing away from its August highs at 1.0364-68 at the end of last week:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Buyers are still in control for the most part and it would really take a shove back below 1.0200 to invalidate a large chunk of the upside momentum from last week’s breakout post-CPI.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, USD/JPY is running up against key resistance at its 100-day moving average at 140.79 – the level noted earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-climbs-back-above-14000-as-dollar-holds-firmer-to-start-the-week-20221114/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. GBP/USD is down 0.7% to 1.1750 levels but still keeping just above its own 100-day moving average at 1.1653. That is the line in the sand in determining the key bias for the pair.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, AUD/USD is down 0.5% to 0.6665 after a brief recovery earlier in the session – which tailed off upon testing its own 100-day moving average as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-pares-early-drop-100-day-moving-average-in-focus-20221114/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Crypto Market
picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin is
trading just below 16K by the start of active European trading on Monday,
losing 23.6% to levels of seven days ago. Ethereum collapsed 25% to $1190.
Other top altcoins in the top 10 fell from 20% (BNB) to 29.6% (XRP).</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The total
capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 27% over
the week to $757bn, to its lowest level since December 2020.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin and
the overall crypto market collapsed to two-year lows last week amid the
bankruptcy of cryptocurrency exchange FTX and related companies. We continue to
compare what is happening to the banking crises of the early 20th century,
which led to the formation of modern securities market regulation with more
transparency for investors but less anonymity.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin was
down to $15.8K by Monday morning, repeating lows set from Wednesday to
Thursday. This is a timid attempt by speculators to form a ‚double bottom‘, a
reversing pattern in tech analysis. But we also draw attention to the
impressive selling hitting the crypto market on bounces from increasingly lower
highs.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This
behaviour still indicates a huge interest in selling, creating risks for a new,
deeper downside slippage. This could be the $12-14K range in a reduced
liquidity environment.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The collapse
of FTX is likely to cause more reputational damage to second-order altcoins,
pushing back the new alt-season for some time. However, the top two dozen
cryptocurrencies with working projects remain a good long-term bet for a
diversified crypto portfolio.</p><p>News
background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
Glassnode, the share of profitable bitcoin addresses online has fallen to 50% –
the lowest since March 2020. Short-term investors who have held BTC for less
than six months have once again capitulated. Miners were also part of the
reset, data from the CryptoQuant platform shows. Long-term investors, who now
control up to 35.4% of the total BTC supply, also suffered significant losses.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The current
situation in the cryptocurrency industry echoes the 2008 financial crisis, and
more companies could collapse in the coming weeks, warned Binance CEO,
Changpeng Zhao. He said that the market has yet to feel the effects of the
crisis around FTX.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>JPMorgan
believes the collapse of FTX will help the cryptocurrency industry recover and
prompt regulators to speed up regulation of the sector.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>Last week the U.S.
CPI data came below expectations suggesting the Fed might slow down the pace of
tightening, but this doesn’t mean the fight against inflation is over. There
has to be a clear sign of inflation cooling down. The market now expects a
50bps rate hike in December. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>SNB’s Jordan said he
is „prepared to take all measures“ including selling FX, which he
also mentioned in the past, but this time his tone was more convincing causing
a market reaction that strengthened CHF on Friday.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This week we have a
light calendar on Monday, followed by the monetary policy meeting minutes
Tuesday in Australia and the U.S. empire state manufacturing index, PPI m/m and
core PPI m/m. Tuesday will also be busy with the G20 meetings.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Wednesday will reveal
the wage price index q/q for Australia, the inflation data for the U.K. and
Canada; and the core retail sales m/m and retail sales m/m for the U.S. In the
U.K. we’ll also have the monetary policy report hearings and BOE Gov Bailey is
expected to speak.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Thursday will bring
the employment change and unemployment rate for Australia, as well as the U.S.
housing starts, followed by U.S. existing home sales data on Friday.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A few Fed members are
expected to deliver their remarks over the week including Brainard who’s
expected to speak on the economic outlook at a Bloomberg news event, in
Washington DC.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>SNB’s Jordan will
speak again Monday at the „Club of 100″ and Lagarde will have an
address Friday at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt. Neither of them
are expected to say anything new as these types of events are not supposed to
create volatility in the market, but they’re worth keeping an eye on. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>At the last RBA
meeting, the bank hiked the cash rate by 25bps while the market expected 50bps,
so it will be interesting to see if we will get clarifications on the matter
and whether to look for an additional 25bps rate hike until the end of the
year. The Governor said policy changes are not on a pre-set path and they will
be data dependent as the fight against inflation is far from over. The cash
rate is now at 2.85% and the Governor stressed that even though the Board
decided to hike by a lower magnitude now, it could return to higher increments
if necessary.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The G20 Meetings on
Tuesday and Wednesday will likely focus on geopolitics and could include a
meeting between Biden and Xi. Russia will send Foreign Minister Lavrov
according to Al Jazeera.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Retail sales in the
U.S. might see some increase due to the early holiday shopping season even if
over the previous period there was some slowing in consumer spending. Gas
prices started to grow back last month which means sales at gasoline stations
could boost the overall figures. Wells Fargo forecasts a 1% growth in retail
sales in October, meaning a 0.5% real gain. Industrial production should also
reflect a slight improvement of 0.2%, fuelled by consumer demand for durable
goods and high capacity utilization.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The U.K. inflation
data will be very important to watch this week. The market expects CPI y/y to
rise from 10.1% to 10.8% while the core CPI y/y to drop from 6.5% to 6.4%. The
economic situation in the U.K. doesn’t look promising. Last week’s GDP data was
above expectations, but still in negative territory which suggests the
beginning of a five-quarter recession. The housing market is also under
pressure and the labour market conditions are not showing signs of
improvement. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The employment data
for Australia is expected to show some easing this week, while the Japanese CPI
is expected to run hot, the consensus being for a rise from 3% to 3.5%. Many
analysts believe that inflation hasn’t peaked in Japan so it will be
interesting to see what happens next. BoJ Governor Kuroda’s tone was still very
dovish so it’s less likely that a significant change in policy will happen
before the end of the year. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The housing market in
the U.S. was negatively impacted over the last few months by increasing
mortgage rates. Buyer demand was clearly affected as well, and it is not
expected to show signs of improvement for some time. Existing home sales have
declined for the past eight months leading to September, and Wells Fargo
expects a further decline in October, bringing the overall annual pace to 4.31
million-unit from 4.71 in September.</p><p>USD/CAD
expectation</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the H1 chart the
pair closed the week near the 1.3235 level of support. A correction is expected
until the 1.3385 level of resistance or even 1.3480, the next resistance level
after that. From there the downtrend should resume targeting 1.3165 if nothing
significant happens in the market.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A risk for this trade
is the CPI data for the Canadian economy. The core CPI mm is expected to print
above expectations and the y/y data to drop from 6.9% to 6.4%. </p><p>GBP/CHF
expectations</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On Friday the CHF
strengthened due to Jordan’s remarks and it is expected to do so for the week
ahead. The U.K. economy is not likely to show improvement, so from a
fundamental perspective the pair looks good for selling opportunities.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the H1 chart the
pair found support at 1.1135. A correction is expected until the 1.1260 level
of resistance and if that level holds, the next target could be 1.1080.
However, on the H4 chart a bullish divergence seems to be forming on MACD
which, if aligned with the fundamentals, might suggest a bigger correction,
maybe to 1.1340.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>All eyes will be on
the CPI data for the U.K. and Governor Bailey’s remarks which represent a risk
for this trade.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by Gina Constantin.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The latest note on the BOE by Morgan Stanley:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“The BOE stops hiking as bank rate hits 4.0% in March 2023. With the inflation target in sight, and unemployment on the rise, we expect 150 bps of cuts in 2024.“</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Being prudent does not rule out possibility of moving from withdrawing accommodation to restricting demand</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It would be misguided to base aggressive tightening on assumptions which cannot be be conclusively substantiated</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s all fancy words but the bottom line is that the ECB is still going to want to pursue tighter policy for now, for as long as they can get away with it. As we move into next year with a prolonged recession on the cards, we will see if they still really have said appetite to keep restricting demand.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.