<p>It’s an earlier than usual finish for me today, so I’ll leave you with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2673-us-market-open-tentative-trade-awaiting-nfp-and-fed-speak-for-fresh-pivot-guidance&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Newsquawk US Market Open Preview</a> and wish you all an amazing weekend.</p><p>Summary</p><p>European bourses are modestly on the backfoot, though have trimmed this slightly as the session progresses, in limited newsflow pre-NFP.</p><p>Stateside, futures are similarly contained and lie either side of the unchanged mark with NQ -0.1% modestly lagging amid yield upside</p><p>Typically tense pre-NFP trade has seen the DXY briefly dip below 112.00, to a 111.94 low, before regathering itself and holding marginally above the figure.</p><p>Core benchmarks dipped to lows amid the morning’s German data release, with Import Prices lifting again, though have gained some poise since in quiet trade.</p><p>WTI and Brent are off highs but still holding onto gains of around USD 0.50/bbl and are at the top-end of the week’s USD 86.35/bbl – 95.00/bbl parameter in Brent Dec’22.</p><p>Fed’s Mester (2022/2024) and Waller (voter) spoke overnight and added to the pivot-pushback</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian jobs reports, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Williams, Kashkari, Bostic</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-will-consider-whether-market-assessment-of-uk-economic-policy-has-changed-20221007/“>BoE will consider whether market assessment of UK economic policy has changed</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bofa-flow-show-bull-bear-indicator-remains-at-00-extreme-bearish-20221007/“>BofA Flow Show: Bull & Bear indicator remains at 0.0 (Extreme Bearish)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-natgasweatherandrepaltry-natgasweather-daily-report-20221007/“>The @NatGasWeather/@andrepaltry NatGasWeather Daily Report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/euro-zone-demand-surge-playing-increasing-role-in-excessive-inflation-ecb-20221007/“>Euro zone demand surge playing increasing role in excessive inflation: ECB</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-newsquawk-nfp-preview-looking-for-250k-payroll-additions-vs-315k-in-august-20221007/“>The @Newsquawk NFP Preview: Looking for 250k payroll additions (vs 315k in August)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-currency-diplomat-never-felt-a-limit-to-ammunition-for-currency-intervention-20221007/“>Japan Currency Diplomat: Never Felt A Limit To Ammunition For Currency Intervention</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/italy-retail-sales-fall-04-mm-in-august-20221007/“>Italy retail sales fall 0.4% m/m in August</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/french-trade-balance-1530b-forecast-14425b-previous-1454b-20221007/“>French Trade Balance: -15.30B (Forecast -14.425B, Previous -14.54B)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-halifax-house-prices-mom-01-previous-04-20221007/“>UK Halifax House Prices MoM: -0.1% (Previous 0.4%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/german-real-retail-sales-mom-13-forecast-12-previous-19-20221007/“>German Real Retail Sales MoM: -1.3% (Forecast -1.2%, Previous 1.9%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/german-industrial-production-mom-08-forecast-05-previous-03-20221007/“>German Industrial Production MoM: -0.8% (Forecast -0.5%, Previous -0.3%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-newsquawk-market-open-sentiment-sullied-as-fed-officials-push-back-on-incoming-pivot-20221007/“>The @Newsquawk Market Open: Sentiment sullied as Fed officials push back on incoming pivot</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/swiss-unemployment-rate-adjusted-21-forecast-21-previous-21-20221007/“>Swiss Unemployment Rate Adjusted: 2.1% (Forecast 2.1%, Previous 2.1%)</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>BoE will consider whether market assessment of UK economic policy has changed, says Ramsden</p><p>“One key consideration for the (BoE’s monetary policy committee) at its upcoming meetings will be whether the recent repricing of UK assets reflects a changed assessment by markets of the UK macroeconomic policy mix between fiscal and monetary policy,“ Ramsden said in a speech to the Securities Industry Conference 2022.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1578337433439338502?s=20&t=1RQFCJsRY74tUsB-8qcRwQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Reuters Note on this</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>BofA Flow Show: Bull & Bear indicator remains at 0.0 (Extreme Bearish) </p><p>Equities (USD) </p><p>US: outflows recommence, 3.4bln </p><p>Europe: outflow for the past 34 weeks, 0.6bln </p><p>Japan: inflows for the past two weeks, 1.5bln </p><p>Fixed Income (USD) </p><p>Gov’t/Tsy: inflows for the past seven weeks, 4.2bln </p><p>IG: outflows for the past five weeks, 12.5bln </p><p>HY: inflows for the past seven weeks, 0.6bln </p><p>Source: BofA</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The guys at NatGasWeather.com have once again allowed me to share with you their daily report </p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://natgasweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NatGasWeather.com__Daily__Report_Oct__7.pdf“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Report Here</a></p><p>7-Day Weather Summary (Oct 7-13): An early season cool shot will sweep across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast Fri-Sun w/showers and chilly lows of upper 20s to 40s. The rest of the US will be comfortable w/highs of 60s to 80s besides hotter 90s California and Southwest deserts. </p><p>Much of the US will again be comfortable next week as highs of 60s to 80s rules besides cooler 50s N. Rockies & N. Plains.</p><p>Overall, moderate national demand Fri-Sun, then light.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>ECB Minutes: <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2022/html/ecb.mg221006~a5f7fb03f3.en.html“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 7-8 September 2022</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/headlines/ecb-minutes-inflation-was-far-too-high-and-likely-to-stay-above-the-governing-council-s-target-for-an-extended-period-projected-inflation-path-remained-tilted-to-the-upside-over-the-entire-projection-horizon-06-10-2022″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Newsquawks Bitesize Post</a></p><p>Key Points:</p><p>Inflation was far too high and was expected to remain above the governing council’s target for an extended period of time.</p><p>A large number of members favoured raising the key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points.</p><p>Expectations for inflation remained stable, and wage growth remained moderate, with little evidence of second-round effects.</p><p>Over the entire projection horizon, the risks associated with the projected inflation path remained skewed to the upside.</p><p>The size of the upward revision in the staff inflation projection for 2024 was not deemed large enough to necessitate a more aggressive response.</p><p>The expected slowdown in economic activity would not be sufficient to significantly reduce inflation.</p><p>Without a timely reduction in monetary policy accommodation, inflationary pressures caused by euro depreciation may worsen.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>US Challenger Layoffs: 29.989k (Previous 20.485k)</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p> BoE: The move in gilt yields last week threatened to exceed the size of the cushion for many LDI funds.</p><p>They go on to say..Had BoE not intervened, a large number of pooled LDI funds would have been left with negative net asset value and would have faced shortfalls in the collateral posted to banking counterparties.This is basically an exercise by the BoE in making it clear that they singlehandedly saved the Gilt market – Some may beg to differ and side with ‚it was a storm in a tea cup‘ </p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577953767097602050?s=20&t=PlizH2fMlTkq9S3-dBknEQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>BOE’s Cunliffe: Closely monitoring LDI funds to ensure resilience</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577953712101900289?s=20&t=PlizH2fMlTkq9S3-dBknEQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>BoE says it will unwind gilt market intervention once risks have subsided</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp/“ target=“_blank“ id=“3a5ab7c1-ff09-45ea-87d4-eea6613bb754_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>GBP</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>Euro zone retail sales fell in August, data showed on Thursday, pointing to a weakness in consumer demand and underlining expectations of an approaching recession.</p><p>Eurozone Retail Sales YoY: -2% (Forecast -1.7%, Previous -0.9%)</p><p>The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell 0.3% month-on-month for a 2.0% year-on-year drop.Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.4% monthly fall and a 1.7% year-on-year decline.The fall in retail sales, seen as a proxy for consumer demand, underlines economists‘ expectations that the euro zone is likely to go in to a recession in the coming quarters, hit by the energy price shock created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/15131934/4-06102022-AP-EN.pdf/30dbcae1-1162-7035-4b3e-ae69a64df586″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Report</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577947731120852992?s=20&t=yYCAGKkWQUrhJQvFPGzPkQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Reuters</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/eur/“ target=“_blank“ id=“b0427fd7-674c-4ad1-b689-22d1f8b087b0_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>EUR</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>British businesses‘ expectations for consumer price inflation in one year’s time rose to 9.5% last month, up from 8.4% in August, a Bank of England survey showed on Thursday.</p><p>Life gets increasingly difficult for the fine folks on Threadneedle Street</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The Spanish central bank said on Wednesday it estimated the country’s economy expanded a scant 0.1% in the third quarter from the previous three months due to lower private consumption as the energy shock in Europe hit households.</p><p>“The rise in energy prices, which has gradually spread to an increasing share of goods and services, has reduced the purchasing power of households,“</p><p>The central bank said it also expected growth to slow „very significantly“ in the second half of this year and the first quarter next year, which would lead to a 1.4% growth rate in 2023, down from a previously expected 2.8%.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577616941690372096?s=20&t=wITftxxSwEcgElpPFZw3Gg“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Reuters Note</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.