Gold scales back towards $1,900 on dollar drop as Fed rate hike bets pared 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Gold enjoyed a stellar start to the new year as it capitalised on its usual January seasonal tailwind, before things went awry in February in a $150 drop from the highs at the start of the month. When Fed chair Powell delivered more hawkish remarks last week it took price back near its 100-day moving average (red line) but amid the whole SVB situation, gold bugs are finding renewed vigour in a push towards $1,900 now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>We are currently seeing price trade at its highest levels in over five weeks, with buyers looking to try and breach the 9 February high of $1,890.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes as the dollar remains on the softer side today, as markets are paring back Fed rate hike odds. The March decision is essentially <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fed-rate-hike-odds-have-turned-to-become-a-coin-flip-now-20230313/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>a coin flip</a> now and that’s music to the ears of gold buyers. Adding to that is the sharp drop in bond yields and gold has rallied by over 4% in the past three trading sessions.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The major headwind for gold is that central banks will have to keep tightening amid high inflation. However, if policymakers have already started to break certain parts of the economy, then perhaps we could see a policy pivot come into play sooner and that will be a really massive tailwind for the yellow metal in the year(s) to come.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Dow Jones Technical Analysis 0 (0)

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the sellers eventually managed to break below the key <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 32684. The recent
breakout was caused by the collapse of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/svb-collapse-whats-next-20230312/“>Silicon
Valley Bank</a> on Friday which spread fears of contagion in the
banking system and led to risk aversion across the board. </p><p>The Treasury and the Fed worked
during the weekend on a solution for this particular matter and came up with an
<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/us-official-says-banks-not-being-bailed-out-nah-theyre-being-bailed-out-heres-how-20230312/“>emergency
lending facility</a> that would protect the depositors and give the
banks the chance to convert their long term securities at original value
instead of being marked to market. This development pushed the markets up as
the futures market reopened and the price rallied all night long. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the overnight rally stalled at the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a>. This is a zone where the
sellers may be leaning on and the key <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 32684 offers a good
protection for shorts. The buyers will need to break above the 32684 level if
they want to gain control and target the major trendline as the first target. </p><p>What comes next though, should be
decided by the CPI report tomorrow. The market is currently pricing a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/oh-how-the-tables-have-turned-20230313/“>higher
chance of 25 bps hike</a> at the March meeting and completely priced out the
50 bps chance. A beat across the board in the data may raise odds of the 50 bps
hike and push the market lower, while a miss should give the buyers lots of
strength to push higher and make new higher highs. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the resistance zone at 32684 is pretty strong. We have <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> of the trendline, the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level and the above-mentioned resistance. This
will be the first line of defence for the sellers. If the buyers break above,
the sellers may want to wait for the price to approach the major trendline
first before starting to pile in. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

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All SVB assets, deposits have been transferred to FDIC-operated ‚Bridge Bank‘ 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>They add that checks will continue to clear and that loan payments by customers should be made accordingly as per usual, with ‚Bridge Bank‘ set to open and resume normal banking hours. Former Fannie Mae CEO, Tim Mayopoulos, has been named as CEO.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>They’re still waiting on that buyer surely. Tick tock, tick tock.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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SVB collapse: What’s next? 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>48 hours is all it took for Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) to become the second-worst banking failure in the US, after Washington Mutual’s collapse in 2008. The background of the two could not be more different though. SVB mainly focuses on companies, as it is arguably the key player for liquidity for tech startups and venture capitalists in the environment, while Washington Mutual was a firm that catered more towards retail clients.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That explains why SVB has a rather lopsided portfolio when it comes to the nature of their deposits, with over 90% being uninsured deposits i.e. exceeding the FDIC’s insurance limit of $250,000.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As such, this bank run was not your usual one in the sense that it happened to a rather peculiar bank, that catered to a rather unique sector of clients. One can argue that the risks involved may be more idiosyncratic but it isn’t that simple.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Let’s take a quick look at some relevant information in making sense of the supposed „sudden“ collapse in SVB.</p><p>For starters, the warning signs have already been there.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/RagingVentures/status/1615826088038473733″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>This</a> is probably one of the best takes on what were the underlying problems at SVB and guess what? It was put out back on 18 January. It covers the whole HMT issue, which Adam also pointed out <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/held-to-maturity-bonds-are-about-to-be-a-big-problem-20230310/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. In essence, rising interest rates are becoming more of a problem for banks as they take a hit on their bonds portfolio. </p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This Wall St Journal <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-interest-rates-hit-banks-bond-holdings-11668123473″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>piece</a> (may be gated) from last year is also a warning that SVB isn’t the only player that may be facing such strains. There are some bigger names involved but perhaps their risk and credit management are not as shoddy as what was taking place at SVB.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The saying tends to go that the Fed usually hikes until something breaks, and this might be that something.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Now, SVB isn’t your „too big to fail“ kind of market actor and that is perhaps why we are getting a bit of a debate as to whether or not lawmakers and policymakers might actually step in to bail out the situation.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Essentially, that’s where we are at now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Looking over at their immediate client exposure, there are some big names that are directly impacted from SVB. You can check out the individual disclosures <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=%2522Silicon%2520Valley%2520Bank%2522&amp;dateRange=custom&amp;category=form-cat1&amp;startdt=2023-03-10&amp;enddt=2023-03-10″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>here</a> if you want to go into more detail. The list below is accurate as of the standings on 10 March (h/t Ben Hoban @wbhoban for making a neat summary for some of the more relevant ones):</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Roku is obviously one of the biggest names on the list and having an approximately 26% cash balance exposure is a big risk.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The real fear is how all of this trickles down to the connected parties and how that all interlinks to other firms which are not directly involved with SVB. The potential spillover effect may be massive but again, all of this is taking place inside this ecosystem of tech startups mostly.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>To put things more bluntly, this isn’t the collapse of the main banking sector and financial system in the economy. This is pretty much just a failure of a peculiar bank in a rather niche ecosystem that makes up for just one part of the economy.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Now, that is not to say that one should discount the risks involved with such a failure though. Always remember, markets and in this instance, humans are driven by emotions at their very core. And fear is an extremely powerful one, to say the least.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The traumatic experience from the global financial crisis will definitely reignite plenty of that again over the weekend and come tomorrow, people will be looking to the FDIC to try and broker a sale of SVB to try and calm fears of a more widespread contagion.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Now, in a more logical sense, SVB doesn’t quite have the status to cause a 2008-09 dominoes effect in the financial system but the fear that it could, might have that sort of potential. In essence, it is sort of self-fulfilling as overblown and sensationalist headlines spread panic and hysteria, and everyone’s reaction gets influenced into thinking that „this is Lehman Brothers all over again“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>So, what’s next?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>All eyes will be on whether we will see SVB get bought out by another market actor and that will take care of itself, in the sense that it will cover for depositors (yes, including those uninsured) and the fear of contagion stops there.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I would think that the FDIC and the Fed would not want to see tech startups go bust en masse and the best way to prevent something disorderly from taking place would be just that.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I mean, there is definitely a real possibility that SVB just dies off and having to sell all of its assets at a haircut, failing to cover all of its depositors. However, that is worst-case scenario and something that lawmakers and policymakers would want to actively avoid since it may potentially trigger bank runs elsewhere as the fear continues to spread.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I reckon come Monday, the fear and distress all across markets would still be high and that might continue for a bit. This is contingent of course to a deal being brokered for SVB to be sold off, which perhaps could take a while within the next week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In that sense, headlines will be everything. And if there isn’t anything, I think markets will be comfortable to sell first and ask questions later until the silence is broken. But the minute anything hits the wires about a SVB deal, expect markets to turn on its head and risk trades to start recovering.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As always in times like these, I will always preach the mantra of buy value, sell hysteria.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Dow Jones technical analysis at ForexLive.com: Contrarian long oppportunity for traders? 0 (0)

<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is one of the most widely recognized stock market indices in the world. It tracks the performance of 30 large-cap American companies and is often seen as a barometer of the overall health of the US economy.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>In this Dow Jones futures video, i duscuss the technical analysis of the Dow Jones and share my perspective on the potential for a bounce in the market. I note that there has been a lot of <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fdic-takes-control-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230310/“>negative (and meaningful for many companies!) news regarding banks</a> and other factors that could impact the market. However, I believe that there is a contrarian long opportunity for traders who are willing to take a limited risk.

</p><p class=“text-align-start“>
I present the bull channel that was broken previously, and subsequently retested. There is another retest now, and while there is a possibility of a piercing the channel on this retest (price entering the channel), I believe that it is worthwhile to target a bounce is in the very near future.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>I share that I will be looking look for a long opportunity in the area where the channel was broken out of, and note that the reward versus risk is favorable. I do caution traders to do their own analysis and trade at their own risk, but believe that there is a good reason to take a bet on the daily time frame.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>This analysis and its trade „lookout“ may be right or wrong BUT IN ANY CASE, it highlights the importance of technical analysis in situations like this, where there may be a lot of over-excitement or panic based on news events. They suggest that traders who follow technical analysis may be able to identify high risk-reward key junctions where algorithms and traders may be looking to buy or sell, and take advantage of those opportunities.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>Visit <a target=“_blank“ href=“www.forexlive.com“>ForexLive.com</a> for additional views and trade the Dow Jones at your own risk.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

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China finance minister &, PBOC Governor to both stay on, an unexpected continuity signal 0 (0)

<p>On Sunday China’s new

Premier Li Qiang nominated Yi Gang to remain governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and Liu Kun to stay on as finance minister.</p><p>This is being interepreted as President Xi Jinping opting for a measure of continuity in key economic policymaking posts. Yi was appointed as PBOC governor in 2018 but had been had been widely expected to retire after being left off the ruling Communist Party’s Central Committee during the party’s once-in-five-years congress in October.</p><p>China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, will vote to approve the nominations on Sunday, a rubber-stamp process. UPDATE – the vote has taken place, all confirmed. </p><p>People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang has overseen relatively stable <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a> in China. </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Chairman Jordan of the Swiss National Bank says Bank doing all it can to curb inflation 0 (0)

<p>SNB Chair Thomas Jordan spoke with newspaper SonntagsBlick in an interview ahead of the Bank’s upcoming policy decision due on March 23:</p><ul><li>“At the moment <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a> is too high in our country and we are doing everything we can to bring it back into the area of price stability“</li><li> „Price stability is our main task. We define that conservatively as inflation of less than 2%“</li></ul><p>Jordan spoke last week, hinting at the potential for higher rates ahead:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snb-chairman-we-cannot-rule-out-that-we-will-have-to-tighten-monetary-policy-again-20230307/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“ data-article-link=“true“>SNB Chairman: We cannot rule out that we will have to tighten monetary policy again</a></li></ul><p>The interview Jordan gave with SonntagsBlick will be his last public comment ahead of the SNB’s policy meeting on the 23rd. </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Fed in talks to create a fund to backstop deposits if more banks fail – report 0 (0)

<p>The FDIC and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/f/federal-reserve/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“0139b451-c49a-48a1-8365-838a83595a97″ target=“_blank“>Federal Reserve</a> is mulling a fund that would allow regulators to backstop more deposits at banks that run into trouble, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-discusses-fund-to-backstop-deposits-if-more-banks-fail-1.1894175″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>according to a Bloomberg report</a>.</p><p>The report says regulators discussed what would be a new special vehicle in conversations with bank executives, citing people familiar.</p><p>“
The hope is that setting up such a vehicle would reassure depositors and help contain any panic, said the people.,“ according to the report.</p><p>This sounds like an interesting option because it lets Silicon Valley Bank go while trying to step the contagion, though the details here are far from certain.</p><p>A separate report says US regulators are racing to sell SVB assets and make a portion of clients‘ uninsured deposits available as soon as Monday. The sources in the report said 30-50% or more.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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The Fed is now facing a real dilemma. Here’s what will happen 0 (0)

<p>The point of hiking interest rates is to inflict economic pain. In a perfect world, it would be spread evenly and fairly, the economy would slow just enough to bring inflation back into balance.</p><p>But interest rates are a famously blunt tool.</p><p>As it stands, the burden falls highest on people in precarious positions: those who borrowed too much and can’t make the payments. We collectively accept that families will suffer to bring inflation under control.</p><p>What if, instead, that burden fell on banks and venture capital?</p><p>Would that be a good thing? Sure. Those are supposed to be the risk takers in an economy.</p><p>Is it what’s going to happen? I’m not so sure.</p><p>In a perfect world, venture capital would get cleaned out and banks would tighten lending. That would mean the Fed wouldn’t need to hike as much and it would give those indebted consumers are fighting chance of survival.</p><p>The problem for the Fed and Treasury is that it’s tough to contain a banking crisis. If they allow the fire to spread — like officials did with Lehman Brothers — it could get out of hand quickly. My belief is that the financial crisis didn’t need to happen. It would have been expensive but a quicker combination of rate cuts, QE and government money would have been far cheaper than what unfolded. That lesson hasn’t been forgotten in Washington.</p><p>So what will happen?</p><p>Maybe I’m cynical this is an easy choice for the Fed and Treasury: They’ll save the banks and hang consumers out to dry. </p><p>Squeezing the economy slowly with rate hikes is a tried-and-true method where policymakers can feel like they’re in control. A banking crisis is playing with fire.</p><p>In a future post I’ll write about why the Fed and Treasury should resist the impulse to race to the rescue.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 10 Mar: SVB overshadows the jobs report 0 (0)

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/odds-of-a-50-bps-hike-on-march-22-fall-to-28-20230310/“>Odds of a 50 bps hike on March 22 fall to 28%</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/wti-crude-oil-futures-settle-at-7668-20230310/“>WTI crude oil futures settle at $76.68</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/held-to-maturity-bonds-are-about-to-be-a-big-problem-20230310/“>“Held to maturity” bonds are about to be a big problem</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/why-contagion-from-the-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-is-a-certainty-20230310/“>Why contagion from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse is a certainty</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-us-oil-rig-count-2-to-590-20230310/“>Baker Hughes US oil rig count -2 to 590</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-opportunity-to-get-that-5-yielding-2-year-is-now-deep-in-the-rearview-mirror-20230310/“>The opportunity to get that 5% yielding 2-year is now deep in the rearview mirror</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-equity-close-dax-touched-a-one-year-high-this-week-the-closed-20230310/“>European equity close: DAX touched a one-year high this week the closed</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fdic-takes-control-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230310/“>FDIC takes control of Silicon Valley Bank</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/whats-the-second-line-of-defense-in-the-regional-bank-rout-20230310/“>What’s the second line of defense in the regional bank rout?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/silicon-valley-bank-unlikely-to-find-a-buyer-report-20230310/“>Silicon Valley Bank unlikely to find a buyer – report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-us-jobs-report-is-out-the-usd-is-down-it-more-than-jobs-as-banking-concerns-increase-20230310/“>The US jobs report is out, the USD is down. It more than jobs as banking concerns increase</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/the-persistence-of-inflation-in-the-eurozone-did-not-pass-unnoticed-by-the-markets-20230310/“>The persistence of inflation in the Eurozone did not pass unnoticed by the markets</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/odds-of-a-50-basis-point-fed-hike-fall-after-non-farm-payrolls-20230310/“>Odds of a 50 basis point Fed hike fall after non-farm payrolls</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/shares-of-silicon-valley-bank-halted-with-news-pending-20230310/“>Shares of Silicon Valley Bank halted with news pending, down 63% premarket (Updated)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-february-employment-218k-vs-100k-estimate-20230310/“>Canada February employment 21.8K vs 10.0K estimate</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-non-farm-payrolls-311k-vs-205k-expected-20230310/“>US February non-farm payrolls +311K vs +205K expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbp-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20230310/“>The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-currencies-keep-the-focus-on-payrolls-20230310/“>ForexLive European FX news wrap: Currencies keep the focus on payrolls</a></li></ul><p>The markets have been waiting for the jobs report what seems like forever. Not only was it delayed because February is a short month and the BLS felt that the 10th was doable – the 3rd was not, but the Fed Chair’s testimonies on Tuesday and Wednesday heightened market anxiety and anticipation. </p><p>And then Silicone Valley Bank rumblings started to permeate in the markets, and today, the regulators came in and closed down the 16th largest bank, and took control via a new entity. Overall, was the 2nd biggest bank failure. The shares of SIVB are down -$66.55 on the day or -62.76% at $39.50. The stock traded as high as $763.32 in November 2021. On February 2, 2023, the price traded as high as $348.06.</p><p>The FDIC said that the depositors would have access to their funds on Monday. Those with deposits greater than the FDIC insured limit of 250,000 would get receivership certificates for the uninsured balances. Those businesses will unlikely get the money out soon, unless a knight in shining armor comes in to bail the bank out sooner rather than later. The total of on insured deposits is about $151 billion. Ouch</p><p>The bank is the 16th largest in the US with $209 billion in assets.</p><p>What now ?</p><p>What was not good for SVB may not be good for other banks. </p><p>In short, SVB owned government bonds and other qualified debt instruments. Those assets lost value as a result of the Fed’s aggressive tightening . When startup companies start to fail or burn cash over the last year, the deposit base started to dwindle. Moreover speculative funding into the bank started to slow down at the same time. </p><p>In order to cover the shortfall and to meet withdrawl requests, SVB was forced to sell government bonds at a loss and realize that loss. The bank tried to sell stock. When word of that got out, credit agencies looked to lower the rating. The stock price started to move to the downside. The stock issuance plans blew up, and the house of cards started to crumble as other depositors – especially those with assets over the FDIC insured $250,000 – looked to withdraw all their funds, and send their balances to larger money center banks. Of course SVB stopped that. The FDIC was forced to step in. </p><p>Other regional banks may not have the exposure of SVB, but that does not stop depositors from liquidating their accounts and moving their funds to bigger banks instead. If those smaller regional banks banks are forced to liquidate their bond holdings, they too may be forced to realize losses that they cannot sustain.</p><p>The story is far from being over. The only thing from keeping that story going is that the markets are now closed. </p><p>Today, what the markets started to price in was that the Fed is likely to slow down their tightenings in order to stabilize the financial system. </p><p>So instead of a 50 basis point hike in March – which would be all but guaranteed given the US jobs data today which showed a higher than expected increase in nonfarm payroll jobs of 311,000 – rates plummeted on the expectations that the Fed would keep the hike to 25 basis points. Moreover, the terminal rate which was looking toward 5.75% (with some estimates pushing toward a 6% terminal target), has moved back to the downside as well. </p><p>Looking at the US debt curve the two-year note led the move to the downside in yields. The longer end was less impacted but they too were down double digits. Looking at the yield curve:</p><ul><li>2-year note 4.588%, -31.2 basis points.</li><li>5 year note 3.966% -25.3 basis points</li><li>10 year bond 3.702%, -22.2 basis points</li><li>30 year bond 3.710%, -16 basis points</li></ul><p>For the trading week, </p><ul><li>The 2 year yield reached a high of 5.085%. It is down -27 basis points on the week which is the sharpest fall since November 7, 2022</li><li>The 10 year yield year yield reached a high of 4.089% last week. For this week it is down 25.2 basis points</li><li>The 30 year yield reached a high last week of 4.047%. This week the yields down -16.4 basis points.</li></ul><p>In the US stock market, concerns about a contagion sent stocks sharply to the downside:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average fell -345.22 points or -1.07% at 31909.65</li><li>S&amp;P index fell -56.73 points or -1.45% at 3861.60</li><li>NASDAQ fell -199.46 points or -1.76% at 11138.90</li></ul><p>For the trading week all the major indices were sharply lower:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average fell -4.44%, the largest decline since the week of June 13, 2022</li><li>S&amp;P index fell -4.55%, the largest decline since the week of September 19, 2022</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -4.71% which was the largest decline since the week of October 31, 2022</li></ul><p>In the currency market, in what was a volatile day for the greenback, the CHF is the strongest and the AUD is ending as the weakest of the major currencies. The USD was the weakest and is still lower on the day, but sellers shifted focus to the AUD in risk-off flows. The CHF was the beneficiary of flight to safety flows.</p><p>For the trading week, the USD was mixed versus the major currencies with gains against the commodity currencies (risk off in those currencies), and declines versus the JPY and CHF. The greenback was little change verse the EUR and the GBP. </p><ul><li>Unchanged vs the EUR</li><li>Fell -0.54% versus the JPY</li><li>Up 0.10% vs the GBP</li><li>Fell -1.57% vs the CHF</li><li>Rose 1.69% vs the CAD</li><li>Rose 2.73% vs the AUD</li><li>Rose 1.43% vs the NZD</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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