Consensus estimate +325KPrivate +325KApril +428KUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.5% vs 3.6% priorParticipation rate consensus 62.2% priorPrior underemployment U6 prior 7.0%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +5.2% y/y vs +5.5% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.4% vs +0.3% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.6 vs 34.6 priorHere’s the May jobs story so far:ADP +128K vs +300K expected ISM services employment not yet releasedISM manufacturing employment 49.6 vs 50.9 priorPhilly employment 25.5 vs 41.4 priorEmpire employment 14.0 vs 7.3 priorInitial jobless claims survey week 195K vs 197K expI don’t see this as a particularly important report. A 50 bps hike from the Federal Reserve is baked in and there’s no reasonable number here that could change that. Average hourly earnings is the detail to watch because a sharp rise in that beyond the 5.2% y/y expected could jar the Fed into a more-hawkish stance. We got a hint of that Wednesday from Daly as the talk about going beyond neutral if necessary ramps up.

Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $30.5K in the past 24
hours. Ethereum added 0.2% to $1820. Ether was unexpectedly among the laggards.
Altcoins from the top 10 rose from 1.5% (BNB) to 4.1% (Solana).

Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.8%
overnight to $1.26 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index added 0.2% to 46.3%. The
cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down 3 points to 10 by Friday and
remains in “extreme fear”.

Bitcoin rebounded on Thursday after falling sharply the day before. The
strengthening was helped by a weaker dollar and positive stock indexes. The
local downtrend (former consolidation triangle from May 10) turned into a
support line. For the short term, this is good news. However, it is worth
remembering that this is a fragile structure that could be broken by both a
stronger dollar and a market reaction to labour market news.

Bitcoin has already reached the “bottom” in the current cycle of decline and
will not fall below $25,000, said former BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange CEO,
Arthur Hayes. However, a market trend reversal should be expected when the Fed
stops raising rates.

According to BTC.TOP CEO Jiang Zhuoer, the bearish phase will end in six
months. A possible driver for this could be the Ethereum update, which should
occur between October and December. Another bullish factor will be the US
Federal Reserve’s refusal to hike rates.

According to a Goldman Sachs survey, 6% of global insurance companies have
invested or want to invest in cryptocurrencies. According to the Economist
Impact survey, a growing number of investors see digital currencies as a useful
tool for portfolio diversification.

This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

Fresh from
picking up two awards for 2022, online trading platform PU Prime has once again
received recognition, this time with the award for World’s Best Online
Broker at the Financial Expo Egypt 2022.

 

Held from
25-26 May in Egypt, the Financial Expo gathered more than 5000 traders, 100
brokers, and 70 speakers from over 30 countries for one of the MENA region’s
largest financial and Forex events. Top brokers got to exhibit their products
and services, while traders got to meet and learn from some of the industry’s
top professionals.

 

Awards given
out at the Financial Expo celebrate the best-in-class achievements of attending
brokers. With a presence in over 120 countries and regions, and top-tier
support in over 18 languages, PU Prime is more than ready to take on the
competitive global brokerage market.

PU Prime is
delighted to continue receiving industry recognition and hopes that its
ceaseless efforts to strive for the best will bring itself, and its stakeholders
to greater heights.

 

Most
importantly, PU Prime would like to express its heartfelt thanks to its
customers – without which none of this would have been possible.

 

About PU
Prime

Established
in 2015, PU Prime is an award-winning online brokerage that services over 120
countries and regions throughout Oceania, Europe, Asia, Africa, and North
America.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is next week:

Tuesday 7 June 2022
Statement is due at 0430 GMT

Via Westpac, they have been in the ’40bp in June‘ camp ahead of this note, no change in forecast:

The RBA is almost certain to raise the cash rate next week. Since the decision to make the first move on May 3 we have consistently argued that the best decision will be to move by 40 basis points. That would eliminate the emergency stimulus from 2020 and send a clear signal that the Board recognises its formidable task to move inflation back within the target band by 2024 and is prepared to act decisively.

That’s in summary from a longer piece.
—
Earlier RBA preview:

the RBA free to hike rates again this month by 25bp

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe:

The ADP employment report was delayed by a day due to the US holiday so it will be released today at 8:15 am ET (1215 GMT). The consensus is +300K and that should provide somewhat of a guide ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
Jobs will also be in focus with the initial jobless claims report 15 minutes later. With that we also get revisions to US Q1 productivity data.
The next main event comes at 10 am ET with the April factory orders report, which is expected to show a 0.7% increase. Looking deeper into the future, the factory outlook is darkening. Yesterday, a number of a automakers reported a sharp slowdown in US sales.

Honda -57.3%
Toyota -27.3%
Mazda -63.7%
Nissan -29.1%

Backlogs and inventory building should help to keep them busy through year end but there’s a growing chance of a sharp slowdown in 2023.
Along with the factory orders report, we get revisions to durable goods data.
Also delayed this week due to the holiday is the weekly US crude oil inventory report. The API data was moderately bullish but it will all be overshadowed by the OPEC meeting, which is at 8:30 am ET (2:30 pm in Vienna).
On the central bank calendar we get:

BOC’s Beaudry 11 am ET
Fed’s Logan noon ET
Fed’s Mester 1 pm ET

Watch the video for the key trading levels for AUDJPY,
AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, USD
Index, and Oil.

 

Check out the latest video here: https://vimeo.com/user173450789

USD
strength prevailed after a strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI data release last
night.

 

Read
the updated analysis below:

·     
AUDJPY has
closed above the 93.00 level.

·     
AUDUSD has
rejected and closed below the 0.7200 level.

·     
EURJPY has
closed above 138.31 last month’s high.

·     
EURUSD has
declined back down to the 1.0635 monthly support level.

·     
GBPJPY has
rallied back to the 163.06 monthly resistance level.

·     
GBPUSD has
declined down from the 1.2638 daily resistance level. A double top pattern may
now be forming.

·     
NZDJPY
has
rallied back to the 84.24 daily resistance level.

·     
NZDUSD
has
declined down from the 0.6527 monthly resistance level. A double top pattern
may now be forming.

·     
USDCAD has
found support at 1.2659 the weekly 62% fib retracement level.

·     

USDJPY has closed above the 129.77 daily resistance
level.

·     
USD Index
remains positive for the week trading back towards the 103.81 monthly
resistance level.

·     
Oil has
rejected the 114.44 major monthly resistance level.

 

This article
was written by Duncan Cooper – Senior Market Strategist & Trading Mentor.

 

This content
may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty
and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information
provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation,
forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is
information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice
on which you can rely.

Prior 24.29kUS-based employers announced 20,712 job cuts last month, down from the 24,286 job cuts announced in April. This continues to reaffirm strong labour market conditions though it adds to the near record high job openings seen in April.

· New Treasurer highlights challenges ahead. · Domestic energy prices sky-rocketing. · RBA Governor and Board Must Be Sacked Publicly in Disgrace. After spending a year warning of the coming completely under-estimated by markets Australian crisis, it has finally arrived. Yesterday, I said the economic crisis of ‚recession risk‘ was already on our door-step. Today, I would say it has arrived. Suddenly the Federal Treasurer is warning of significant economic challenges in contrast to the previous government’s mantra of everything is great? The private sector is screaming from the rooftops over energy costs destroying profit margins. Domestic gas prices have surged and yet Australia is one of the world’s biggest exporters. This is just one example of how I have warned that it did not matter that we are an agriculturally and mineral rich nation. That global pricing pressures would see Australia heavily negatively impacted in the domestic economy by booming export prices. Such is the modern world. Global capitalism has magnificently reduced global absolute poverty and leveled the playing field for everyone. No it is not a perfect world, but it is a far better world for globalisation. That said, there is a price to pay. It is called global pricing in the domestic market. Not only has the whole world experienced supply disruption and profit fattening induced extreme inflation, but also the impact of both war and sanction driven intense actual availability of supply shortages. So, more together than we have ever been, economically and socially in history, we will all now experience these challenges. Australia has been late in seeing these global challenges hitting our shores. Despite all the warnings provided here. At last though, the new Treasurer seems instantly aware and this is a very good thing. We cannot stop the upward challenges of rising prices for the most staple of necessities, food and energy, but we can moderate the impact on hard working Australian families through thoughtful policy. On interest rate settings, the RBA has been nothing short of a catastrophe to the nation, our economy and our people. · The RBA is the primary generator of inflated property prices and housing affordability issues. · The RBA is the primary cause of initial runaway inflation. · The RBA is the primary cause of the correction to the economy, property prices and the skyrocketing mortgage distress that is already beginning to be seen and will increase dramatically in coming months. · The RBA is incompetent at its core. It does not need assessment and correction. · The RBA must be massively overhauled and the Governor and Board absolutely sacked publicly in disgrace. Once we get to appropriate intelligence and action on interest rates, then we can look to further policy resets to save the nation. These begin with, but are not limited to, immediate and permanent removal of the fuel excise tax. It is the most oppressive of working families, unfair and disproportionate regressive tax ever inflicted on the Australian people. It must go or working families will fall further behind and have to resort to less healthy food and activities just to survive. We in our ivory towers do not fully appreciate just how hard it is for many Australians right now, to just simply look after their families. This tax hurts the poor and barely registers with the rich. It must go! And one would think a Labor government would immediately recognise this to be the case. The survivability and fairness of the Australian economy is far more important than the excel spreadsheet revenue and budget. Adjustments to our energy policies, particularly gas, so that the Australian people and businesses can more directly participate in the natural wealth of our nation are also badly urgently required. If you know Treasurer Jim Chalmers, please pass this article on to him. Making such seismic shifts on the RBA, fuel excise and gas supply prices are the basic first steps for our economic sustainability through the fast arriving global slow-down and price shocks. Jim Chalmers, Treasurer of Australia Clifford Bennett ACY Securities Chief Economist. The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities. All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett. This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

PBOC policy will stabilise growth, employment, and pricesWill strengthen implementation of prudent monetary policySome token remarks but as with all things related to China, the timing and context matters. In this instance, it is merely a wider airing of support for the economy after the government took up measures to bolster the local scene amid the lockdown restrictions that have hit hard in the past few months.

Prior -1.2%Market index 308.3 vs 315.5 priorPurchase index 224.1 vs 225.5 priorRefinancing index 751.6 vs 794.9 prior30-year mortgage rate 5.33% vs 5.46% priorMortgage activity declines further in the past week, signaling that sentiment from the housing market is continuing to deteriorate even if prices haven’t exactly come down significantly. The purchase index has fallen to its lowest since May 2020 with the refinancing index at its lowest since January 2019.