Today, investing in
stocks via computer or smartphone has become mainstream. But in the past, when stock investments were not entirely digitized,
companies needed to issue paper-based stock certificates to provide their
shareholders evidence of their stock ownerships. 

 

Stock Certificates Explained

 

Stock certificates are
proof of ownership of shares provided by the issuing company to its
shareholders. Before the internet and electronic trading platforms, investors
had to buy and sell shares in person or through their brokers.

 

Trading commissions
back in the day were pretty expensive, and once the stock purchase is complete,
the investor receives a stock certificate that contains important details,
including:

·      Shareholder’s name

·      Number of shares owned

·      Type of Stock

·      Date of purchase

·      The Committee on
Uniform Securities Identification Procedures (CUSIP) number

·      Signature of the
individual authorized to issue the certificate

·      Corporate seal

 

Prior to digitizing
transaction records, investors only had stock certificates as evidence of
owning shares of stock. If they were looking to sell the shares, they first
needed to show these paper-based documents to a broker. The broker would then
return the certificates to the issuing company for sale.

 

Stock Certificates in
the Present Day

 

Today, stock
certificates are not as common as they were many years ago. They now even have
significant costs to delay or cancel a request. In addition, as the investing
and trading space transforms digitally, many companies are slowly putting an
end to issuing stock certificates.

 

It is still possible to
own a stock certificate in some cases, although you need to do two things.
First, find a company that still provides stock certificates. Second, find out
whether the advantages and disadvantages of having a stock certificate would
work for your needs.

 

As for the issuing
company, they are two ways they obtain this type of paper document: With the
broker you bought the shares from or directly through the transfer agent.

Brokers: Brokers keep records
of all the purchases necessary to secure a stock certificate on their clients’
behalf. You can contact the broker via the customer service department and
inquire about the process you need to go through to exchange your electronic
shares for paper-based stock certificates.

 

Transfer Agents: Transfer agents allow
you to obtain stock certificates directly. You can find a transfer agent’s
contact information on the investor relations section of the company’s website
or by contacting the investor relations department.

 

Once you have the
transfer agent’s contact details, you can get in touch with them to learn the
process and costs of converting your electronic shares to paper stock
certificates.  

 

Found an Old Stock
Certificate, What to Do?

 

Old stock certificates
may either still be valuable or have value as collectibles. First, check
whether the company on the certificate is still operating. If it is, you can
reach out to the investor relations department to ask about the stock
certificate’s validity and value.

 

Keep in mind that there
is a high possibility that paper stock certificates have been converted to
digital shares.

 

If you’re having a
tough time finding the company, you can ask your online broker for help. Your
broker can try looking for the company with CUSIP, as it is related to the share’s
genetic code and has all the information on a trade.

 

Perhaps online brokers
provide such a service because they expect their clients to transfer the assets
in their brokerage accounts.

 

If the stock
certificate has no value anymore, the issuing company might consider buying it
as a collectible, a practice known as scripophily.

The Fed is stealing the spotlight but let’s not forget that the BOE is another major central bank that will be announcing its policy decision this week. In case you missed their previous decision in March:

BOE raises bank rate by 25 bps from 0.50% to 0.75%
Sterling falls as traders sense BOE hesitancy

In some sense, the lack of firm conviction in tightening more aggressively has contributed to the pound’s recent demise (alongside a surging US dollar) with GBP/USD having sunk from 1.3200 all the way to test 1.2500 in the past few sessions.
At this stage, the BOE needs to hike the bank rate by another 25 bps to 1.00% purely out of credibility. As much as policymakers are seemingly hesitant to commit to much more or be even more aggressive, they can’t ignore the sort of ideals that they have vouched for to begin this tightening cycle.
The BOE was one of the early adopters in justifying that rate hikes are needed to combat inflation and since then, there hasn’t been much let up in price pressures to dissuade them of that view. Instead, it is the economy and the cost-of-living crisis that is putting them between a rock and a hard place now, considering that rate hikes won’t do much to resolve the inflation issue.
It will be interesting to see how they balance that out and if they will be one of the first central banks to advocate for rate hikes and then back away as quickly as you can say ‚transitory‘. I mean that may very well be the case for higher rates at the end of the day. Talk about irony.

While an initial public
offering (IPO) is the most common way to take
a company public, other options exist for making a firm’s shares available
to the public markets. One of those is through a reverse takeover (RTO) or
reverse merger.   

 

Reverse Takeover
Explained

 

An RTO or reverse
merger is a process where a private company goes public by acquiring a
publicly-held shell business. The acquisition makes the owners of the private
firm the controlling shareholders of the existing public business.

 

Upon completing the
transaction, the owners absorb the once private entity through reorganization
of the public company’s assets and operations. In other words, the private
company is restructured or eliminated, making the already public shell business
the sole entity.

 

Reverse Takeover and
Initial Public Offering

 

Many companies decide
to make a public listing, so they can sell their shares to the overall
investing community to become more well-known and tap on financial sources that
were previously inaccessible to them as a private business.

 

That is where an IPO
usually comes in. However, this approach can be complicated and time-consuming
and often requires assistance from investment banks in underwriting the
agreement and issuing shares.

 

Moreover, the IPO
involves broad due diligence, a great deal of paperwork, and regulatory
assessments. And once that is all done, there are poor market situations that
are out of the company’s hands to consider since such unfavorable conditions
can get in the way of a successful IPO.

 

But in an RTO, private
companies don’t need to undergo such a comprehensive process, which allows them
to go public more quickly than they can with the traditional IPO route.

 

That is a huge help for
private entities that cannot perform an official IPO. Plus, they can take
themselves public through reverse mergers with a relatively small amount of
money.

 

How a Reverse Takeover Works

 

Many publicly-listed
companies‘ ongoing operations or assets, which usually trade over-the-counter
(OTC), can be quite few or sometimes none at all. Such entities are referred to
as shell companies, and they are the ones commonly used for RTOs.

To conduct a reverse
merger, owners of the public firm must first purchase approximately 51% of the
shell company’s shares.

 

Once they have a
majority stake, they exchange the private entity’s shares for the public shell
company’s existing or new shares. The private company then becomes the shell
company’s wholly-owned subsidiary.

 

Unlike an IPO, reverse
mergers allow companies to go public without generating new capital, making the
process easier and faster to complete. It also eliminates the need to raise
publicity and capture institutional or retail investors‘ interests.

 

The Major Risk of a
Reverse Takeover

 

Considering the
regulatory oversight and number of investors are less in an RTO, this method
can carry fraud and compliance risks.

 

That is why a reverse
merger needs more due diligence than a conventional IPO. Additionally, RTOs
tend to fail because many of the companies that take this route only do so when
they can’t raise funds in private markets and don’t have sufficient publicity
to conduct an IPO.

 

The Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) has indicated the fraud risks of some RTOs, saying
public firms that were a product of an RTO can collapse or otherwise have a
hard time staying attractive and valuable.

 

Despite that, several
companies still try to perform a reverse
merger. The method could work best for companies that are not in a rush to
raise new capital and have enough profits to counter the costs of being
publicly listed.

There isn’t anything significant on the board rolling off for today, with little interest being shown ahead of the Fed tomorrow.Depending on the outcome of the FOMC meeting and the market reaction, we might see the larger expiries on Thursday and Friday coming into play. For now, the lack of conviction and appetite will carry through until we get to the main event on Wednesday.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Forex traders pay close attention to monetary policy because interest
rates play a pivotal role in the fluctuations of currency pairs.

The policy rate sets the tone for the bond rates. And the relative attractiveness
of bonds is what drives investors to buy or sell given currencies. Generally,
the higher the relative bond yields in a currency, then the stronger the
currency will be.

That has been a very simplistic description of conventional wisdom. But
in the post-pandemic world, that could be changing.

That said, trading strategies may need to be modified to suit the new
reality. It could explain why some trading strategies aren’t as effective. So,
let’s go over why this is happening, and whether we are looking at a new
normal.

It’s not just the interest rate

Most economies in the world spent a lot of money dealing with the
effects of the pandemic, expanding the monetary base. But they didn’t all do it
in the same way, or in the same amount.

So, while inflation around the globe is generally rising in part due to
fiscal policy, it’s not the same in every country. And the means to deal with
that aren’t necessarily the same, either.

The classic way that central banks reduce liquidity is by raising interest
rates, making borrowing money more expensive.

Money in the modern world is essentially created through debt issuance.
Therefore, if debt is more expensive, then less people will take out loans, and
there will be less circulation. That’s the theory.

But central banks aren’t always right. Case in point, the current
inflation situation, where we are well into month 10 of „transitory“
high inflation.

So, why the disconnect

During the pandemic, interest rates were low, so a lot of companies
took advantage to issue debt.

Sure, there were many firms who went into the pandemic with high leverage
and had to reduce their debt holdings (or simply went bankrupt). Nevertheless,
the total amount of corporate debt increased substantially over the last couple
of years.

Now, the companies that needed money have all stocked up on debt. And
with interest rates rising, they are less inclined to borrow more. Meanwhile,
central banks have been snapping up corporate debt, particularly in Europe, but
not so much in the US.

In the US, the Federal government issued a lot of short-term debt as it
faced down a debt ceiling towards the end of the pandemic. It now must roll
over that debt as interest rates are rising.

It’s supply and demand

On a basic level, prices are determined by supply and demand. With less
corporate issuance, then corporations could demand better terms (that is, lower
interest rates).

However, central banks are pushing to raise rates, meaning that better
terms are not available. So, interest rates are rising, but not
„organically“.

In other words, bond yields aren’t reflecting the market so much as
they are reflecting a push by regulators. And that distortion can have some
unexpected effects down the line, which is where forex comes in.

Central banks regulate interest rates by buying up bonds or selling
bonds. Therefore, if central banks want higher rates, they have to withdraw
capital from the bond market. That is, stack the table in favor of bond buyers.
Those are the people with cash, who hunt around for the best bond yields where
they can park their money.

Figuring out the market forces
gap

It’s natural for capital to flow toward higher interest rates, which
means buying that currency and pushing it higher. That’s normally how forex and
bond yields are connected. But that assumes that interest rates will stay
higher.

Right now, the consensus is that central banks are raising rates to
deal with inflation. Once that’s achieved, then rates would likely moderate. That
said, near-term rates could go higher than longer-term rates (the infamous
„curve inversion“).

When the disconnect happens

Investors generally move their funds based on where interest rates are
expected to be, not necessarily where they are. So even if rates are rising at
the moment, the potential for a retracement in yields in the near term as
central banks moderate their tightening and turn to a more neutral stance,
could be the driving force between currencies.

Thus, it isn’t surprising to see some headlines about how a particular
currency didn’t get stronger despite rising yields. The issue might be that
investors don’t think those higher yields are sustainable. Particularly as more
analysts start hinting that a new recession is coming, and central banks will be
forced to cut rates.

The tests are believed to be carried out between 3 and 5 May, which will also include Beijing’s Chaoyang district – which had earlier said it would conduct two rounds of mass testing on 1 and 3 May.At this point, one has to wonder if China will ever draw the line on the economic costs of its current ‚zero COVID‘ policy. But considering its sense of pride and ego, it may not be until when the infection becomes much more endemic to the global audience. Otherwise, it would look as though that Xi’s strategy has failed and that is something which he surely will not allow.For markets, that just means more disruptions to supply chains in general and the reverberations of higher costs in terms of raw materials and shipping will continue to play out for a more prolonged period.

Bloomberg (gated) have the report, citing ‚people familiar with the matter‘:
European Union is set to propose a ban on Russian oil by the end of the year, with restrictions on imports introduced gradually until thenEU also considering treating oil shipped via tankers and through pipelines differently, with the latter being easier to sanction The EU is the single largest consumer of crude and fuel from Russia.

Bloomberg also cite the unnamed sources as saying:The EU will also push for more banks from Russia and Belarus to be cut off from the international payment system SWIFT, including Sberbank
More at that link above. 

SUN:
Chinese Labour Day Holiday (May 1-4).
MON:
German Industrial Orders (Mar) and Retail Sales (Mar); EZ, and US Final
Manufacturing PMIs (Apr); US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr); UK Bank Holiday;
Japanese Holiday.
TUE: RBA
Announcement; South Korean CPI; German Unemployment (Apr); EZ Producer
Prices (Mar); US Durable Goods (Mar); UK Final Manufacturing PMI (Apr);
New Zealand Jobs Report; Eurogroup Meeting; Japanese Holiday.
WED: FOMC
Announcement; US Refunding; BCB Announcement; German Trade Balance (Mar);
EZ, UK, and US Final Services and Composite PMIs (Apr); EZ Retail Sales
(Mar), US ADP National Employment (Apr); Canadian Trade Balance (Mar); ISM
Services PMI (Apr); OPEC JTC; Japanese Holiday.
THU: BoE
Announcement; Norges Bank Announcement; NPB Announcement; CNB
Announcement; JMMC/OPEC+ Meeting; Australian Trade Balance (Mar); Chinese
Caixin PMI Services PMI (Apr); Swiss CPI (Apr).
FRI:
German Industrial Orders (Mar) and Retail Sales (Mar); EZ, UK, and US
Final Manufacturing PMIs (Apr); US Jobs Report; Canadian Jobs Report.

NOTE: Previews are listed in day-order

US ISM manufacturing PMI (Mon), ISM services PMI (Wed): The Manufacturing
ISM is expected to rise to 58.0 in April from 57.1 in March. Credit Suisse,
which is against the consensus view, looks for a decline to 56.5. The bank
writes that although the S&P Global PMIs have improved recently, many
regional surveys within the US have been turning lower this year. Credit Suisse
adds that the Production and New Orders sub-indices have been underperforming,
while it argues that the headline itself has been supported by the ongoing
supply chain disruptions, which has underpinned the Supplier Deliveries
sub-index; „We expect this trend to continue as COVID shutdowns in China
and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threaten new global supply disruptions,“
CS writes; it also expects to see ongoing weakness in manufacturing surveys in
the months ahead. Meanwhile, the services gauge is likely to pick-up to 59.0
from 58.3, according to analyst forecasts.

RBA announcement (Tue): The RBA will decide on rates next week in what is
widely viewed as a live meeting with swaps traders fully pricing in a 15bps
increase for the Cash Rate Target to 0.25% from the current record low of
0.10%, while swap markets also suggested a 25% chance of a greater 40bps move.
The expectation for a sooner lift-off was spurred after the mostly firmer than
expected inflation data for Q1 which showed headline annual inflation at 5.1%
vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 3.5%) which is the fastest pace of increase in more than
two decades and the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation also surpassed the
central bank’s 2-3% target at 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 2.6%). This prompted an
adjustment of rate hike expectations with JPMorgan anticipating the RBA to hike
by 15bps in May and Westpac also brought forward its rate hike call in which it
now expects a 15bps increase at next week’s meeting followed by a 25bps move in
June from a previous forecast of a 40bps increase in June. The RBA have opened
the door for a sooner hike after having dropped its reference to the Board
being „patient“ from the statement at the last meeting and noted that
developments have brought forward the likely timing of first rate hike, while
it also stated in the recent semi-annual Financial Stability Review that it is
important borrowers are prepared for an increase to interest rates. Conversely,
others are not convinced of a move at the upcoming meeting with Goldman Sachs
and Capital Economics in the June lift-off camp, while arguments for a pause
include the RBA’s previous desire to wait for data over the coming months and
with Australians set to go to the polls for the election on May 21st.

New Zealand jobs report (Tue): There are currently no market expectations for
the Kiwi Labour Force Report, but the release will not likely sway the course
of RBNZ monetary policy, with a 100% chance of a 25bps priced in alongside an
above-80% chance of a 50bps hike. Analysts at Westpac nonetheless expect the
employment change of +0.2% and the unemployment rate to decline to 3.0% from
3.2%. “Labour market indicators point to a further tightening in the market in
recent months, albeit with some disruptions from the Omicron wave. The bank
acknowledges its forecast is a modest upside surprise to the RBNZ’s view.

FOMC announcement (Wed): The FOMC is expected to lift rates by a 50bps
increment, taking the Federal Funds Rate target to 0.75-1.00%. Its March
statement laid the groundwork for such a move (“anticipates that ongoing
increases in the target range will be appropriate” – a line which is expected
to be stated again in May). Additionally, remarks from officials before they entered
the pre-meeting quiet period framed the Fed’s task as firmly in the
inflation-fighting sphere, with Chair Powell stating that it was “absolutely
essential” to restore price stability. Officials have also spoken about
“expeditiously” getting rates back to neutral (judged to be around 2.4%,
according to the Fed’s recent forecasts), which has built expectations for a
front-loaded rate cycle. Accordingly, money markets are now pricing 50bps rate
hikes at the May, June and July FOMC meetings; markets have also priced in the
Federal Funds Rate target rising to 2.50-2.75% by the end of this year (vs the
Fed’s March forecasts, which pencilled in rates rising to 1.75-2.00% by
end-2022). Elsewhere, the central bank may also announce the beginning of its
balance sheet runoff. The minutes from the March meeting flagged that the
process of quantitative tightening will begin at an upcoming meeting, while
there was also a discussion about the cap amounts that the Fed will allow to
roll-off the balance sheet on a monthly basis – the minutes suggested USD 60bln
for Treasuries and USD 35bln for MBS holdings. Some desks think that these caps
will be hit early, but the rising rate environment and lower mortgages
refinancing could mean that only around USD 20bln or so rolls off on an average
month. And given that the Fed wants its balance sheet to eventually be
comprised primarily of Treasuries, traders will be paying attention to see any
timelines of when the Fed is prepared to begin outright selling of its mortgage
holdings to lower the size of the overall balance sheet. Additionally, in light
of advanced Q1 GDP data this week, which showed a contraction of 1.4%, the
Chair will likely be asked the extent to which the Fed is comfortable
tightening policy in the face of slowing growth, and if it would be prepared to
engineer a recession to manage price pressures.

US quarterly refunding announcement (Wed): The quarterly
refunding announcement (08:30EDT/13:30BST) will be made hours before the FOMC
rate decision (14:00EDT/19:00BST), where the central bank is expected to lift
rates by 50bps, but crucially, many also expect it will announce the beginning
of quantitative tightening. UBS argues that the Fed will signal QT, while the
Treasury will outline how it will be financed. The key question for fixed
income traders is whether the Treasury continues to cut coupon issuance in the
face of the buying gap from the Fed. “Treasury’s decision will only be on the
level of coupon issuance for the next three months,” UBS writes, “however, it will
probably also signal how it plans to implement its financing over the coming
quarters when QT will be in full swing.” Since the February refunding
announcement, where it cut auction sizes and signalled further cuts ahead, UBS
notes that the fiscal outlook has improved after a strong tax season;
“therefore, we think that Treasury will go ahead with cutting nominal auction
sizes for the 7y, 10y, 20y, 30y, and FRN,” adding that the cuts for the 7yr and
20yr sectors are likely to be more aggressive to address supply and demand
imbalances. „We think that these additional cuts to nominals will lead to
a continued decline in the amount of nominal duration that the private sector
absorbs this year,“ the bank says, „we expect the supply of nominal
duration to the private sector to drop by 29% in 2022 Y/Y, and another 14% in
2023 due to a decline in the total net issuance of fixed-coupon nominals to the
private sector from USD 1.7trln in 2021 to USD 1.5trln in 2022, and cut further
to USD 1.1trln in 2023.“ Meanwhile, UBS sees the net issuance of TIPS to
the private sector increasing from USD -17bln in 2022 to USD +61bln in 2023,
and USD +75bln in 2023.

BoE announcement (THU): The BoE is expected to continue its hiking cycle
at the upcoming meeting by delivering another 25bps hike, taking the Base Rate
to 1.0%. 33/44 surveyed analysts expect a 25bps hike, 1 expects a 50bps hike
and 10 look for no change. In terms of market pricing, 27bps of tightening is
priced in for the upcoming meeting with an additional five hikes priced in by
the end of the year. The previous decision was subject to dovish dissent from
Cunliffe who voted for a pause in the hiking cycle on account of concerns over
the current squeeze on real household incomes. This time around, the vote split
is expected to remain 8-1 with no other MPC members set to join Cunliffe in the
pause camp given that the consensus amongst policymakers is set to prompt just
a 25bps hike compared to the 50bps that the Fed is likely to proceed with next
week. The meeting comes amidst the backdrop of rampant inflation in the UK with
the Y/Y CPI metric rising to 7.0% in March from 6.2% ahead of the inclusion of
the OFGEM price cap hike in April. Furthermore, the CBI reports that
manufacturers are raising prices at the fastest rate in over 40 years to cover
rising raw material and energy input costs. The labour market remains hot with
the unemployment rate at multi-decade lows whilst wage growth remains elevated.
Of concern, GDP metrics for Feb saw a cooling in the pace of Q/Q growth to 0.1%
vs. the 0.8% observed in January whilst March’s retail sales report was
particularly soft with ING noting that “it’s getting increasingly difficult to
see how UK consumer spending avoids a downturn over coming months”. With this
in mind, Governor Bailey has cautioned that the BoE is walking a tightrope
between tackling inflation and avoiding a recession. With a rate hike a near
given for the Bank, focus will turn towards signalling for the coming months.
In the previous statement, the Bank tweaked guidance so that it reads “modest
tightening in monetary policy may be appropriate in the coming months” as
opposed to the February statement which noted it is “likely to be”. Any further
softening of forward guidance on rates will be of note given how aggressive
market pricing remains. SGH Macro suggests that the Bank is on the precipice of
what it describes as “a ‘second phase’ of tightening, characterized by less
frequent moves over a longer time horizon, with data dictating
meeting-to-meeting outcomes”. Elsewhere, current guidance from the BoE suggests
that it will actively start selling Gilts when the Bank Rate hits 1%. However,
policymakers have stated that selling Gilts when the Bank Rate hits 1% will not
be an automatic process. ING thinks now is not the best time to sell bonds and
therefore will hold off and instead opt to lay out details of how the policy
could work when implemented. In the accompanying MPR, inflation and growth
forecasts are set to be revised higher and lower respectively.

Norges Bank announcement (Thu): While the consensus continues to expect the
Norges Bank will leave rates unchanged at 0.75%, a surprising hawkish pivot by
its local peer, the Riksbank, has resulted in some analysts revising their own
expectations towards a more hawkish outturn. That said, the meeting is one of
the so-called intermediate confabs, so we will not get any updated economic
projections or rate path, and according to the Scandi bank SEB, we should still
be expecting an unchanged rate decision. “While recent developments have been
mixed, there are no substantial deviations from the Bank’s projections that
would support a policy shift,” it writes, and SEB thinks the central bank will
reiterate its guidance that “the policy rate will most likely be raised further
in June”, and SEB doesn’t even expect any fresh policy signals. “The market’s
hiking expectations are a tad more aggressive than implied by the rate path,
but the upcoming rate announcement should not result in any large market
moves,” it writes.

JMMC/OPEC+ (Thu): OPEC+ producers next week are expected to stick to their output plans,
which would see the June quota upped by 432k BPD under the agreement, also
backed by recent sources. The meeting comes against the backdrop of the ongoing
Russia-Ukraine war, with Western nations attempting to phase out their
dependence on Russian energy. Meanwhile, China’s COVID situation remains a
concern due to the government’s zero-COVID policy – which has dealt a blow to
the demand side of the equation whenever a city sees a resurgence in cases –
with Shanghai and Beijing currently on watch. China’s developments will likely
be the reason for the producer to express caution with regard to Western
desires for higher output quotas than planned. Further, ministers will likely have
to address the group’s over-compliance at some point as it produced 1.45mln BPD
below its March target (with data showing declines in Russian output), although
there is nothing to suggest that this issue will be picked up at this meeting.
All-in-all, everything currently points to another smooth set of meetings on
May 5th.

Australian trade balance (Thu): Headline trade balance for March is expected to
expand to a surplus of AUD 8.5bn from AUD 7.5bln the month before. The metric
will not change the course of RBA monetary policy with the calls growing for
the central bank to hike in May. Westpac expects imports to pull back following
the surge in February, whilst exports are seen leading the exports.

US jobs report (Fri): The consensus currently expects 400k nonfarm
payrolls will be added to the US economy in April (vs prior 431k; 3-month
average 562k, 6-month average 600k, 12-month average 541k). The weekly data for
the week that usually coincides with the reference period for the establishment
survey showed initial jobless claims rising to 185k from 177k heading into the
March jobs report, although the four-week average slipped to 177.5k from
188.75k; continuing claims eased to 1.408mln from 1.542mln, with the four-week
average also falling. With the Fed more concerned about the inflation part of
its mandate, rather than the employment side, there will be much attention on
the average hourly earnings metrics, which are seen rising by 0.4% M/M
(matching the March rate). That said, the Fed is likely to lift the Federal
Funds Target rate by a 50bps increment at next week’s confab; in fact, money
markets have priced 50bps in May, June and July.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.

China official PMIs for April 2022
• Manufacturing 47.4 vs. expected 48.0, prior 49.5
• Non-manufacturing 41.9 vs. prior 48.4
    
China Caixin /Markit Manufacturing PMI for April comes in at 46.0
• vs. expected 47.0, prior 48.1
The intensification of the COVID-19 outbreak and the associated lockdowns and restrictions across many centres in the country, most notably in Shanghai and other economic powerhouse regions, weighed on the economy in the month. 

May seasonals: What’s in store in the month ahead?
Crude oil gives up earlier gains and settles down $0.67 at $104.69
Russia’s Lavrov: Most key customers agreed to gas-payment terms
Canada February federal budget balance year-to-date -$69.8B vs -$75.29B prior
Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE 3.1% vs 4.0% prior
Baker Hughes oil rig count is up three on the week two to 352
European shares ending with gains for the trading day.
The first look at Q2 GDP from the Atlanta Fed tracker +1.9%
Is US housing headed for a U-turn? Here’s what homebuilders have to say
April final UMich consumer sentiment 65.2 vs 65.7 expected
Rising US yields not yet helping to lift the US dollar
US March PCE core +5.2% y/y vs +5.3% expected
US Q1 employment cost index +1.4% vs +1.1% expected
Canada February GDP 1.1% versus 0.8% estimate
The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar rally cools down
ECB’s Lane: Euro depreciation will be important factor in shaping ECB projections

 
As the clock ticks toward the Fed decision next Wednesday, the stocks are not taking it well. Of course, Amazon’s poor earnings after the close last night was a key catalyst today. Amazon shares are closing down over 14% on the day, and is also closing below its 200 week MA for the first time since 2009.
Apple’s earnings released yesterday were quite not as bad, but they warned about a revenue hit expected from China which acted as a reminder of the impact of the Covid lockdown for not only Apple, but others that rely on supply from that country. 
Will supply constraints/supply shock ever go away and what will be the impact on inflation going forward?  
Meanwhile the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, and have more or less telegraphed another 50 basis points and other tightenings into the year end as they try to break some of the inflation run higher and get their target rate toward the neutral rate of 2% to 2.5%.  
In further anticipation, rates moved higher today which acted as another head wind to the stock market. The 30 year yield is back above the 3.00% level after dipping to 2.82% at the low for the week. The 2 year yield is also back near the high for the cycle at 2.787%. The 10 year yield is 5 basis points from its cycle high at 2.981%

US yields move higher today

For the month of April, 

2 year yield moved from 2.33% t o 2.73% or +40 basis points
5 year yield moved from 2.46% to 2.96% or 50 basis points
10 year yield moved from 2.34% to 2.93% or +59 basis points
30 year yield moved from 2.45% to 3.00% or 55 basis points

For the stock market today, the major indices took it on the chin again after a reprieve yesterday:

Dow industrial average plunged -939.18 points or 2.77% to 32977.22
S&P index fell -155.57 points or -3.63% to 4131.92
NASDAQ index felt -536.80 points or -4.17% to 12334.65
Russell 2000 felt -53.84 points or -2.81% to 1864.10

For the week, the NASDAQ index was the worst performer losing close to 4% on the week as well. The numbers for the week are showing:

Dow industrial average, -2.47%
S&P index, -3.27%
NASDAQ index,  -3.93%
Russell 2000, -4.07%
Stocks continue to prepare for higher rates, higher inflation, and potentially slower growth ahead as well.  

In the forex today, the USD is ending mixed on the day with gains vs the NZD, AUD, CAD, and declines vs the GBP, JPY and EUR.  The USD was near unchanged vs the CHF today. 
The GBP was the strongest of the major today, while flow of funds exited the risk-off currencies. The NZD, AUD and CAD were the weakest of the majors.

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

Technically:EURUSD: The EURUSD is higher on the day but could not get above the falling 100 hour MA at 1.05907. The pair is trading at 1.0544 into the close after reaching a low at 1.04703 yesterday.  That was the lowest level since January 2017. If the pair cannot muster a move above the 100 hour MA next week, a move toward the 2016 low at 1.0339. After that and the choir will be singing for parity. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD had a nice rebound today off the lowest level since July 2020 yesterday at 1.2410. The price moved above its falling 100 hour MA at 1.2577 and reached a high today of 1.2606, but has rotated back toward the 200 hour MA into the close.  That MA at 1.2577 will be a barometer for the short term buyers and sellers next week.USDJPY: The USDJPY continued to make „20 year highs“ this week with the pair extending up to a high of 131.246. Today, however, saw the price move lower and test the old high from April 20 at 129.40. The price bounced near that level up to 129.73 into the close, but next week the 129.40 level will be a close barometer for the market. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and more downside probing can be expected.  USDCAD: The USDCAD moved below its 100 hour MA today for the first time since April 22 near 1.2790 and extended lower to the 38.2% of the move up from the April 21 low at 1.2718. However, buyers leaned there and pushed the price straight back up and through the broken 100 hour MA again. The buying did not stop until reaching 1.2859. The price is at 1.2853 into the close.  There is upside resistance from 1.28709 to 1.2900. A move above that area would have traders targeting the December 2021 high at 1.2963. Stay below and buyers may turn to sellers and push back toward the 100 day MA at 1.2678. NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is closing below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the 2020 low at 0.6465. The pair is closing at 0.6456.  The pair is also near the lowest level since June 2020.  A further move to the downside next week, will have trader targeting a lower trend line target at 0.6377. If the price can get and stay above the 50% there could be some corrective upside probing in the new week.