Major currencies not showing much appetite on the day 0 (0)

Major dollar pairs are still keeping within 0.1% change on the day and that sums up a rather lackluster start to European trading.

The Canadian CPI report later will at least give loonie traders something to work with. Otherwise, broader markets have to look towards the overall risk mood and perhaps the Treasury auction for 2-year notes.

USD/JPY continues to sit on edge, bouncing around 159.30-40 levels as traders are nervy with price holding just under the 160.00 threshold. Besides that, USD/CHF continues to hold around the 0.8910-40 range after the SNB last week. But the pair is still keeping the downside for the month, lower by 1% and reaffirming the seasonal trend here at least.

Looking to the days ahead, month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows might factor into the equation. So, just be wary of that. I still haven’t seen notes on what the bank models are suggesting just yet. But I’ll post them if and when I do. Anyway, the flows there could make things a bit tougher to read before we get into July trading next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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France on the verge of a political standstill? 0 (0)

The first round of voting will begin this weekend on 30 June, before the second round on 7 July. There’s plenty of buzz surrounding the French election this time around. So, let’s take a look at what are the possible outcomes and how that might impact markets.

It all started with the European parliamentary election at the start of this month. That saw Marine Le Pen’s far-right party trump French president Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, leading to Macron calling for a snap election. While the overriding sentiment isn’t just contained to France, the fact that we’re seeing such political uncertainty in Europe’s second largest economy is triggering nerves in markets.

The French parliamentary election here is going to end up being an interesting one regardless.

Given the prevailing sentiment among the public, Macron’s Renaissance party is not expected to win an absolute majority. This outcome would be the most surprising one if it were to play out that way. If so, Macron can easily appoint Gabriel Attal as his prime minister once again. Easy-peasy, French stocks will rally back alongside the euro. But again, it’s quite implausible to imagine at this stage.

The biggest worry now is that we might just see no party winning a majority. As such, there will be no ruling government formed immediately and this is a rather unfamiliar situation for France. One can argue it is rather unprecedented in modern politics and there would be a political standstill within the country.

That is because new legislative elections cannot be called for at least another year to resolve the situation.

If this were to occur, we might see Macron start to come around to the idea of resigning to allow for the process to play out quicker. So far, he has vehemently ruled out such an option. But when the time comes, we’ll see.

The other plausible outcome is that Le Pen’s National Rally party secures an absolute majority. That will make things rather awkward for Macron, as he will be tasked to choose the next prime minister from the party itself. Given the circumstances, he will be left with little choice but to appoint Jordan Bardella to head the government.

In this instance, Macron will still be in charge of things involving foreign politics, treaties, and what not. However, Le Pen’s faction will be the ones in charge when it comes to domestic policies instead.

Things are running smoothly now as Macron is the figurehead and also helps to run the show when it comes to EU matters. It will be a whole different ball game though if this outcome plays out. Expect there to be much tension involving French politics. And in return, that won’t bode too well for domestic assets and also the euro in general.

On the currency, the fear is that this is just the start of a bigger wave that is about to sweep across the region.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen edgy to start the week 0 (0)

Headlines:

Markets:

  • EUR leads, USD lags on the day
  • European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
  • US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.265%
  • Gold up 0.2% to $2,325.58
  • WTI crude up 0.3% to $80.97
  • Bitcoin down 4.9% to $61,023

It was a quiet session as markets are slowly easing into the final trading week of June.

There’s not much on the agenda today, so that explains the lack of major headlines in European morning trade. The German Ifo business climate missed on estimates but fits with the stutter from the PMI data last week.

That didn’t do much to dent the euro though, as the single currency nudged higher alongside regional stocks. EUR/USD is seeing a bump higher from 1.0700 to 1.0730, with European equities also up modestly across the board.

The first round of the French election will be coming later this weekend, so do be wary of that.

Looking to other major currencies, the yen was a bit nervy as well earlier amid some light profit-taking. USD/JPY fell from 159.60 in a quick drop to 158.75 before holding back around 159.50 currently.

The dollar itself is a touch softer but little changed against the rest of the major currencies bloc.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin is a notable mover as it is dragged down to $61,000 again with the low earlier touching $60,605.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis – We are back at the key support zone 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

Despite good data on the inflation
and growth
front, Bitcoin couldn’t find a sustained bid amid the generally positive risk
sentiment. There was no real catalyst for the drop other than a key technical
support getting breached. We got a quick drop into a key
support zone today which will likely attract more buyers looking to buy the dip at
better levels.

Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin dropped all the way back to the key 60000 support
zone after breaking below the 67275 level. The sellers for now remain in
control but we can expect the buyers to start piling in around these levels with
a better risk to reward setup.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the key levels for the buyers which will be:

  • the support zone around the
    60000 level and
  • the major trendline
    around the 58000 region.

The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking below those levels to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better
risk to reward setup at the downward trendline around the 64000 level. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking above the most
recent lower high at 63000 to find some footing and eventually get the price above
the trendline to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into a new
all-time high.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is a bit light on the data front although we will still get to see some
important releases. We begin tomorrow with the US Consumer Confidence where the
market will be focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the
latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the
US PCE.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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The nerves are starting to show again in USD/JPY 0 (0)

This is the sort of nervous price action that we also saw previously when getting close to intervention territory. The pair just took a quick dip from 159.60 to 158.75 before holding around 159.15-30 levels again.

In the run up to the last intervention, there were also jerky price movements such as this during the build towards 155.00 previously. That ultimately settled with a break higher though, before Tokyo stepped in at the 160.00 mark.

For now, the price jumps are not too volatile even with the rise since last week. So, I wouldn’t say Japanese officials are feeling extremely compelled to intervene for the time being.

This is all pretty much the same sort of nerves that is leading to profit-taking as we are near the key threshold.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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UK June CBI trends total orders -18 vs -25 expected 0 (0)

  • Prior -33

Manufacturing orders in the UK fell again in June but at a slower pace as compared to May at least. The balance for manufacturing output expectations also increased to 13 from 7 previously, marking the highest since October last year. CBI notes that the readings are „encouraging“ and that the recovery should „broaden out over the summer“.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

The USD last week finished
slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without
inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for
interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment
for the time being.

The EUR, on the other hand,
got hit on Friday following the disappointing Eurozone
PMIs
, although the losses were erased this morning. The risk sentiment has
been gradually improving, so we might see the greenback coming back under
pressure if this were to persist.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD has been kind of rangebound around the 1.07 handle as the
sellers have been struggling to get the bearish momentum going further. The
1.0727 remains a key level with the price trading below it being more bearish
and above it more bullish.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance
zone around the 1.0727 level where we can also find the confluence of the trendline.

This is where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for
a drop into the 1.06 handle next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to pile in with more conviction and start targeting
the 1.08 handle.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have the upper limit of the average daily range for today standing right around the
resistance. Therefore, it’s unlikely that we will see a breakout to the upside today
but watch out for the next days as we get some important US data tomorrow and
on Thursday.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is a bit light on the data front although we will still get to see some
important releases. We begin tomorrow with the US Consumer Confidence where the
market will be focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the
latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the
US PCE.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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Weekly Market Outlook (24-28 June) 0 (0)

UPCOMING EVENTS:

  • Monday: BoJ
    Summary of Opinions, German IFO.
  • Tuesday:
    Canada CPI, US Consumer Confidence.
  • Wednesday:
    Australia Monthly CPI.
  • Thursday: Japan
    Retail Sales, US Durable Goods Orders, US Final Q1 GDP, US Jobless Claims.
  • Friday: Tokyo
    CPI, UK Final Q1 GDP, Canada GDP, US PCE, University of Michigan Consumer
    Sentiment (final).

Tuesday

The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6%
vs. 2.7% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior. The
Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.9% prior, while the Median CPI
Y/Y is seen at 2.6% vs. 2.6% prior.

The last
report
showed the underlying inflation
measures falling back inside the BoC’s 1-3% target band which gave the central
bank the green light to deliver the first
rate cut
. The market sees a 67% chance of
another rate cut in July but that will depend on the CPI data this week.

The US Consumer Confidence is expected at
100 vs. 102 prior. The last
report
showed confidence improving after
three consecutive months of decline. The Chief Economists at The Conference
Board highlighted that “the strong labour market continued to bolster
consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation”.

Moreover, “looking ahead, fewer consumers
expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and
income”. The overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow
range it has been hovering in for more than two years. The Present
Situation Index will be something to watch given the recent misses in the US
Jobless Claims
as that’s generally a leading indicator
for the unemployment rate.

Wednesday

The Australian Monthly CPI Y/Y is expected
at 3.8% vs. 3.6% prior. As a reminder, the last
report
surprised to the upside with the
underlying inflation measures remaining sticky at higher levels. The RBA kept a
hawkish stance at the latest
policy meeting
as it reiterated that
“inflation remains above target and is proving persistent” and added that
“inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than previously
expected”.

For this reason, the central bank kept all
options on the table by “not ruling anything in or out”. Some better inflation
data won’t change much for the market, but another disappointment could add some slight chances of a rate hike. The RBA is expected to remain on hold until
mid-2025.

Thursday

The US Jobless Claims
continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s
a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on
hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around the
1800K level.

This has led to a weaker
and weaker market reaction as participants become used to these numbers.
Nonetheless, in the last two weeks we started to see the data missing
expectations although it remains below the cycle highs. This is something
to keep an eye on.

This week Initial Claims
are expected at 236K vs. 238K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1820K vs.
1828K prior.

Friday

The Tokyo Core CPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.0% vs. 1.9% prior. Inflation in Japan is basically at target and
there are no strong signals that point to a reacceleration. It’s hard to see a
rate hike given that Japan strived to achieve inflation for decades and it
might ruin this accomplishment by tightening policy. The data shouldn’t change
anything for the BoJ which is expected to trim bond purchases by a
“substantial” amount at the next policy meeting.

The US Headline PCE Y/Y is
expected at 2.6% vs. 2.7% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.0% vs. 0.3%
prior. The Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.8% prior, while the M/M
reading is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.2% prior. Forecasters can reliably estimate the
PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, so the market already knows what to expect. This report won’t change anything for the Fed as the central bank remains in a “wait and
see” mode until September at very least.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include: US PCE, BoJ SOO, Biden/Trump debate 0 (0)

Week Ahead 24-28th June:

Mon: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Ifo Survey (Jun),
German Import Prices (May)

Tue: Japanese Services PPI (May), Canadian CPI (May), UK GDP
(Q1)

Wed: Australian CPI (May), German GfK Consumer Sentiment

Thu: Biden/Trump debate on CNN, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT
Announcement, CNB Announcement, European Council, Chinese Industrial Profits
YTD (May), EZ Sentiment Survey (Jun), US GDP Final (Q1)

Fri: European Council, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Jun)/Activity
Data (May), German Unemployment (Jun), US PCE (May), US University of Michigan
Final (Jun)

Note: Previews are listed in day order

BoJ SOO (Mon):

The BoJ will release the Summary of Opinions
from the June meeting next week which could provide further insight into board
members’ thinking during the latest policy meeting where it kept its short-term
policy rate unchanged at 0.0%-0.1%, as widely expected through a unanimous
vote, although it caught markets off-guard as it defied expectations for the
central bank to announce an immediate tapering of its bond purchases and
instead decided to keep purchases in line with its decision in March. Nonetheless,
the BoJ effectively kicked the can down the road as it declared it is to trim
purchases but will decide on a specific bond-buying reduction plan for the next
1-2 years at the next meeting in July, while the decision on JGB purchases was
made by 8-1 vote in which BoJ board member Nakamura dissented citing the bank
should decide to reduce purchases after reassessing developments in economic
activity and prices in the July 2024 outlook report. Furthermore, the BoJ said
it will hold a meeting with bond market participants (on July 9-10th) on its
policy decision and it expects that underlying inflation is to gradually
accelerate, while Governor Ueda said during the post-meeting press conference
that the reduction of JGB purchases will be a considerable volume and they will
start a reduction of JGB purchases immediately after deciding at the July
meeting, as well as noted that a July hike is naturally possible, depending on
the data.

Canadian CPI (Tue):

In June, the BoC cut rates by 25bps to
4.75%, arguing that monetary policy no longer needed to be as restrictive with
continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing. Recent inflation data
had increased policymakers‘ confidence that inflation will continue to move
towards the 2% target, though it still noted that risks to the inflation
outlook remain. The Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core
inflation, adding that it remained particularly focused on the balance between
demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and
corporate pricing behaviour. Ahead, the BoC said three-month measures of core
inflation suggest continued downward momentum in CPI, adding that it remains
resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability.

Australia CPI (Wed):

The monthly CPI indicator is expected
to tick higher to 3.8% from 3.6%. This month’s data will shed light on the
unfolding of services inflation during the June quarter. That being said,
analysts at Westpac remind us that only 60% of the quarterly CPI is surveyed by
the Monthly CPI Indicator, and many components are surveyed just one month each
quarter, and some only once a year – thus may not accurately reflect the
quarterly CPI. “Our preliminary forecast for the May Monthly CPI Indicator is
for a flat print in the month“. „Given a –0.4%mth decline in May
2023, this would see the annual pace lift from 3.6%yr to 4.0%yr.” Westpac says,
adding that this will be the first instance since September 2023 where the
annual rate of inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator surpasses that of the
quarterly CPI. As a reminder, in the most recent RBA confab where rates were
maintained, the central bank kept to a hawkish tone on inflation as it
reiterated that inflation remains above target and is proving persistent, as well
as noted that inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than
previously expected and remains high. Furthermore, it stated that the path of
interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a
reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in
or out. On the data itself, RBA’s Bullock said that they need a lot to go their
way to bring inflation back into range and noted that the entire economy is to
be looked at, not just Q2 CPI.

Riksbank Announcement (Thu):

In May, the Riksbank cut its
rate by 25bp to 3.75% and guided participants towards two more cuts occurring
during H2-2024 if the inflation outlook materialises. Guidance implied that
there would not be a cut in June, a point that as recently as end-May has been
explicitly reiterated by Governor Thedeen. More recently, on 4th June, Breman
reiterated the above guidance. On the data front, May’s CPIF-XE Y/Y printed
slightly above the Riksbank’s forecast; note, that the month’s broad inflation
metrics were subject to significant two-way factors including mortgage costs
and electricity prices. For the June meeting, the primary point of focus will
be on when the repo path indicates the two H2-2024 cuts are likely to occur,
respondents to SEB’s investor survey believe the path will show the policy rate
at 3.25% in Dec’24 and 2.75% in Dec’25, broadly in-fitting with the current
path.

CBRT Announcement (Thu):

The CBRT is expected to maintain
its Weekly Repo Rate at 50%, according to all 11 economists polled by Reuters,
as the central bank is expected to remain in a wait-and-see mode for now. The
May CPI data was unfavourable for the CBRT as Y/Y accelerated and topped
forecasts at 75.45% (exp. 74.80%, prev. 69.80%), and PPI rose to 57.68% Y/Y
from 55.66%. At the May meeting, the CBRT maintained its Weekly Repo Rate at
50% for the second consecutive month, in line with all analysts’ expectations.
In its statement, the Bank emphasised its vigilance in monitoring the effects
of monetary tightening on credit conditions and domestic demand, underscoring
the need for a persistent tight monetary stance until a significant and
sustained decline in monthly inflation is achieved, with inflation expectations
aligning with forecasts. The central bank also indicated its readiness to
tighten monetary policy further if inflation risks increase, aiming to
establish disinflation in the second half of the year. The desk at CapEco noted
that while many analysts foresee rate cuts by the end of the year, CapEco
predicts the easing cycle will commence in early 2025. The desk highlighted
that inflation, which is expected to peak at around 75% year-on-year in May,
should drop to 38% by year-end. CapEco believes that the central bank will
likely maintain its current stance due to robust economic activity and
persistent inflation risks. The latest CBRT Survey for June showed that the
Repo Rate is seen at 35.90% in 12 months (prev. 37.11%); end-2024 USD/TRY seen
at 37.7463 (prev. 38.7771); end-2024 GDP growth seen at 3.3% (prev. 3.3%).

Biden/Trump Debate (Thu):

The first debate between President
Biden and former President Trump, will be the first of at least two debates
before the November 5th election. The 90-minute debate will take place in
Georgia and is scheduled to be on CNN at 21:00EST on Thursday, June 27th
(02:00BST on June 28th). Going into the debate, a Fox News poll revealed Biden
has overtaken Trump for the first time since October, with 50% of respondents
indicating that they’d vote for him, while 48% showed a preference for Trump;
analysts said the polling may reflect Trump’s recent felony charges of
falsifying business documents. However, an Ipsos poll finds that Trump would
beat Biden 37% to 35% overall in the seven swing states (Michigan,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada). In terms of
the market impact, analysts see the debate as focusing attention on the impact
that higher tariffs could have on growth, inflation, and interest rates.
Capital Economics said most of Trump’s major policy initiatives would be inflationary,
whether that be narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation
(reports suggest that Trump would introduce higher tariffs on China and
universal tariffs on other countries to narrow the US trade deficit, which
could result in a higher USD and inflation, and even hit Eurozone growth rates
too), curbing immigration (which could impact the labour market; many argue
that higher immigration is the potential explanation for the strength and
resilience seen in US labour market data), or compromising the Fed’s
independence (there have been multiple reports that Trump would look to replace
Fed Chair Powell, potentially with Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett or Art Laffer).

Japanese Tokyo CPI (Fri):

Tokyo inflation data for June is
due next week which is seen as a leading indicator for the national price
trend, while participants will be eyeing the data to see if there is a further
acceleration to the headline and core inflation readings seen in the capital
region last month. As a reminder, Tokyo Inflation in May printed mixed as
headline CPI was firmer-than-expected at 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 1.8%), while
Ex. Fresh Food CPI matched estimates at 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.6%) and Ex.
Fresh Food & Energy CPI also printed in line with forecasts but slowed from
the previous to 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.8%). The acceleration in the
headline and core readings in May was driven by higher electricity charges
which rose 13.1% Y/Y owing to an increase in the fee added to electricity bills
to cover the cost of promoting renewable energy and is seen as likely to
persist, while prices of food excluding perishables maintained its pace of
growth at 3.2%. However, underlying inflation moderated and is anticipated to
continue doing so which if materialised, would spur doubts regarding the
ability to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% target and
could effectively lessen the scope for the BoJ to hike rates further this year.
Recently, Japanese PM Kishida said the government is to extend fuel subsidies
to end-2024, and roll out electricity and gas bill relief measures between
August and October.

US PCE (Fri):

In May, US CPI eased to 3.3% Y/Y (exp. 3.4%,
prev. 3.4%), with the core measure falling to 3.4% Y/Y (exp. 3.5%, prev. 3.6%);
the supercore gauge fell to 4.8% Y/Y, the first decline in the annual supercore
rate since last October. Meanwhile, PPI eased to a rate of 2.2% Y/Y in the
month (exp. 2.5%, prev. 2.3%), while the core measure eased to 2.3% Y/Y (exp.
2.4%, prev. 2.4%). With those data in hand, analysts are able to accurately
predict how the PCE data will come in. The WSJ’s Fed watcher Nick Timiraos said
that inflation modellers expect the core PCE index rose around 0.08-0.13% M/M
in May (vs +0.2% M/M in April); that would translate to a 2.6% Y/Y core PCE
inflation rate, down from 2.8% in April, and would hold the 6-month annualised
core PCE rate around 3.2-3.3% in May, while the 3-month annualised rate would
drop back below 3% for the first time since January. In its June policy
statement, the Fed said that „there has been modest further progress“
on inflation, although updated economic projections saw the central bank
slightly nudge up its end-of-year inflation forecast to 2.6% (previously, it
was forecasting 2.4%). In the post-meeting commentary, officials have generally
welcomed the recent tick lower in prices, but have spoken about the need to see
further lower inflation data to achieve confidence that prices will sustainably
fall back to target before they can feel comfortable in endorsing rate cuts.
The updated economic projections from June also revised down the number of rate
cuts seen this year (the Fed now predicts just one rate cut in 2024, down from
its previous forecast for three, but analysts note how the median and mode are
close, and it would only take a couple of officials endorsing rate cuts to see
two reductions this year). Currently, money markets are pricing around 47bps of
rate cuts this year – which is fully discounting one 25bps cut, and a very high
probability of seeing that second reduction.

This article originally appeared on Newsquawk

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Jun: The USD moves higher helped better flash S&P 0 (0)

The week is coming to a close with the USD being the strongest of the major currencies. The JPY is the weakest.The gains in the greenback today were helped by stronger-than-expected flash PMI data that saw services index rise to 55.1 vs 53.7 expected, and the manufacturing rise to 51.7 above estimate of 51.0.

For the USDJPY, it rose to the highest level since the April peak when the price traded to 60.208. The high price today reached 159.774.

Going into the new trading week in the USDJPY, a move above the 160.208 level would take the price of the pair to the highest level going back to 1990 where the high for the year reached to 160.40. Move above that level, and the USDJPY is trading at the highest level since January 1987. Those levels are the progression given more upside momentum in the new week.

Of course, the risk exists that the BOJ intervenes. When the price moved above 160.00 the last time, intervention sent the pair quickly down to 155.19 in short order. Another intervention move sent the price from 157.58 to 152.99. The current price is between the two extremes that attracted intervention.

Today, BOJ and Japan officials tried to jawbone the JPY higher( USDJPY lower), but was unsuccessful. Will they be inclined to be more direct next week?

For the trading week, the USD was mixed. The greenback rose vs the JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD and NZD and fell vs the CAD and AUD. Look at the major pairs:

  • USDJPY rose 1.51% (USD higher)
  • EURUSD fell -0.11% (USD higher)
  • GBPUSD fell -0.342% (USD higher)
  • USDCHF rose 0.46% (USD higher)
  • USDCAD fell -0.33% (USD lower)
  • AUDUSD rose 0.38% (USD lower)
  • NZDUSD fell -0.39% (USD higher)

The greenback rose vs the CHF despite the SNB cutting rates this week by 0.25%. The BOE kept rates unchanged but the statement was somewhat dovish and flash PMI data was weakish today.

In other markets today, the US stocks ended the day mixed. For the 2nd consecutive day, the Dow is ending higher (only marginally), while the S&P and the Nasdaq indexes moved lower.

The final numbers for the day are showing:

  • Dow Industrial Average average rose 15.57 points or 0.04% at 39150.34.
  • S&P index fell -8.55 points or -0.16% at 5464.61
  • NASDAQ index fell -32.23 points or -0.18% at 17689.36

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 4.64 points or 0.23% at 2022.03.

For the trading week the S&P and Dow Industrial Average average rose while the NASDAQ closed the week virtually unchanged:

  • Dow Industrial Average average, +1.45%
  • S&P index, +0.61%
  • Nasdaq index rose 0.48 points which is less than 0.00%, but technically an up week by the slimmest of margins.

This week, the S&P and Nasdaq set new all time high close levels:

  • S&P new all-time high close is 5487.02
  • Nasdaq new high close is now at 17862.23

In the US debt market:

  • 2-year yield 4.736%
  • 5-year yield 4.276%.
  • 10-year yield 4.257%.
  • 30-year yield 4.399%

For the trading week:

  • 2 year yield rose 2.9 basis points
  • 5 year yield rose 3.6 basis points
  • 10-year yield rose 3.4 basis points
  • 30- year yield rose 4.9 basis points

Thank you for your support. Have a great weekend

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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