Crude Oil recently broke
through the key $83 resistance following the strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI and some geopolitical risk in the
Middle East after Israel killed an Iranian general. For now, the fundamentals support
more upside for Crude Oil as we are seeing a reacceleration in economic
activity and the pickup in China’s performance seems to be gathering steam.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil broke
through the key $83 resistance where we
had also the upper bound of the channel as an extra barrier. This breakout
should point to further gains ahead with the $89 level as the next target. If
the price were to pull back to retest the resistance now turned support, the
buyers should step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into
the $89 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the
lower bound of the channel around the $78 level.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we can find
some more confluence around
the $83 support as we can find the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the price were to extend the pullback though, the buyers will have the trendline and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as the last line of defence. Below the
trendline, the sellers will regain control and we could see a selloff back into
the $78 level.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
latest leg higher diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it should signal a pullback into the minor trendline
where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.
All these setups will be dip-buying opportunities for the buyers but depending
on the strength of the momentum and the economic data, the price might bounce
from either level. For this reason, the buyers might want to split their orders
or wait for a catalyst to pile in.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services
PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US NFP report. Weak data is likely to weigh on Crude
Oil in the short term, while strong figures should give it a boost.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Below is a handy table that shows what type of interest rate changes are expected for the major central banks over their next few policy decisions.

Markets have certainly come a long way in pricing out some of the aggressive cuts we saw at the start of the year.

There was a lot of chatter on Monday about the first rate cut for the Fed being pushed back to September.

I don’t think that tells the whole story though.

Yes, technically the first cut is fully priced in for September, but there is still 24 basis points of cuts implied for July, which is just a whisker away from 25.

Other pricing that I’m keeping an eye on this week is for the SNB. Markets are currently pricing a 71% probability of a cut in June.

Which means Thursday’s inflation data will be important for how that view evolves.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened the day lower
but traded mostly higher into the close. The market got pressured by the strong
US ISM Manufacturing PMI report
on Monday which gave a boost to the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Inflation is
gradually becoming again the threat for further gains and the expectations for
rate cuts continue to dwindle with the market now being much less certain on a
rate cut in June. These fears might end up in some general profit-taking into
the US CPI report next week as another hot release could really spook the
market and trigger a change in the Fed’s stance.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. The price yesterday broke out of the rising wedge and
bounced on the key 16206 level where we have also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This
is a critical support zone as a continuation to the downside should trigger a
major correction with the 14500 level as the ultimate target.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price bounced on the 16206 level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The buyers should
step in around this level with a defined risk below it to position for a rally
into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the big negative gap yesterday and the
bounce on the critical support zone.
We now have a resistance zone around the 16300 level where we can find the
confluence of the red 21 moving average and the two trendlines. This
is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the top
trendline to position for a break of the support with a better risk to reward
setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above
the top trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets
into new highs.

Upcoming
Events

Today the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the
week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• The bond market stays in focus after yesterday’s move
• Traders getting less certain about a Fed rate cut in June
• Swiss franc the laggard so far on the session
• Bavaria March CPI +2.3% vs +2.6% y/y prior
• Eurozone March final manufacturing PMI 46.1 vs 45.7 prelim
• UK March final manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs 49.9 prelim
• UK March Nationwide house prices +0.2% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• UK February mortgage approvals 60.38k vs 56.50k expected

Markets:

• AUD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.357%
• Gold up 0.4% to $2,259.26
• WTI crude up 1.5%o $85.10
• Bitcoin down 6.1% to $65,495

It was mostly a slow session for major currencies but it may not stay that way when we get to US trading later. Bond yields are on the move again with 10-year Treasury yields now inching higher to test the key threshold of 4.35%. It is up to its highest levels for the year now, as the selling in bonds continue upon the turn of the month.

The dollar is yet to pick up much on that, trading more mixed and little changed on the day mostly. In FX, the Swiss franc is the only decent mover as it drops a little more. USD/CHF is at its best levels for the year in a push to 0.9090 and keeping thereabouts still.

In other markets, gold remains unperturbed as it keeps higher and looks towards $2,260 levels once more. But equities are feeling a bit of the pinch amid higher yields, with S&P 500 futures now down 0.3% on the day.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin is coming under strong pressure in a steep drop under $70,000 to $65,000 levels at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations last week.
• The US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations although the labour
  market details improved.
• The market now sees basically a 50/50 chance of a
  cut in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and
  finally dropped the tightening bias.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report came in line with
  expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior
  month.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain
  in expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke
again below the key 0.65 support zone and
it’s now looking towards the 0.6443 low. That’s where we can expect the buyers
to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back
into the 0.6623 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.63 handle.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair seems
to be trading inside a falling channel. If we get a bigger pullback from the
current levels, we can expect the sellers to lean on the upper bound of the
channel to position for a drop into the lows with a better risk to reward
setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the
upper bound of the channel to invalidate the bearish setup and trigger a rally
into the 0.6623 level.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the pair now getting rejected from the
resistance zone. The sellers might pile in around these levels already if we
get strong US data or wait for a pullback into the top trendline in case the
data misses estimates.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US Job Openings and tomorrow the
US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures while on Friday we conclude with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The market pricing is showing that the odds of a June move have been reduced to ~62% now. That is down from ~68% at the end of last week here. And according to the CME Fedwatch tool, a 25 bps rate cut is now paired with just a ~56% probability. If anything, it suggests that we are looking at more of a coin flip ahead of the next big set of data points in the next two weeks.

Bond traders are also starting to act up as already seen yesterday. I shared some technical levels to be mindful of here and we are starting to see that come into play. 10-year yields are now up 2 bps today to 4.349% and is knocking on the door of the recent 4.35% ceiling.

It isn’t exactly reverberating across broader markets just yet but if the key level breaks, I reckon traders will start to pay more attention. Watch this space.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened the day
higher and after a brief rally the price reversed completely following the
strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.
The US Dollar and Treasury yields rose to the highest levels this year putting
some downward pressure on the stock market. Inflation is gradually becoming
again the threat for further gains and the expectations for rate cuts continue
to dwindle with the market now seeing basically a 50% chance of a cut in June.
The Fed might also change its tone to a more hawkish stance.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. We continue to trade inside the rising wedge, and
it’s worth to keep an eye on it because if the price were to break below the trendline, the
sellers will have much more conviction to look for new lows with the base of
the wedge at 14477 being the ultimate target.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price is consolidating near the bottom trendline where we have the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
buyers keep on stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position
for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, are
waiting for the price to break below the trendline to increase the bearish bets
and target new lows.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
gains have been capped by the counter-trendline and even if we got a brief
spike to the upside yesterday, the price fell back below the counter-trendline.
The buyers will likely pile in if we get a break to the upside and increase the
bullish bets in case we get a break above the 16480 level.

Upcoming
Events

Today we have the US Job Openings and tomorrow the
US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The jump in Treasury yields yesterday is keeping things rather interesting to start the new week/month. Sure, the US ISM manufacturing data was better than expected. But did that warrant a roughly 10 bps jump in 10-year yields? It’s tough to completely attribute the selling in bonds just to that. So for now, the best we can do is to weigh up the technical side of the equation.

As seen from the chart above, 10-year yields are bouncing after having stuck around the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages. Adding to that is a trendline support (white line) for yields closer to 4.18%. And I would argue that the balance of those technical elements is also playing a part in the bounce in yields yesterday.

Right now, there is also a key ceiling at around 4.35% that is limiting a further run higher in yields. That will be one to watch in the sessions ahead, as we gear towards the US jobs report on Friday.

If yields are to break higher above the key level, expect that to reverberate to broader markets i.e. dollar and risk trades as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a new week, new month, and new quarter to kick things off today. But the Easter holiday is overshadowing markets and keeping things rather quiet, for now at least. North American traders will be greeted with a more muted mood as such but we are seeing gold stay hot and US futures keeping a little higher for now.

As we have come to know in recent times, economic data is what makes markets go round. So, here’s a look at what we can expect from the calendar in the days ahead.

1 April – US March ISM manufacturing PMI**2 April – RBA March monetary policy meeting minutes2 April – Germany March preliminary CPI2 April – US February JOLTS job openings3 April – Eurozone March preliminary CPI**3 April – US March ADP employment change**3 April – US March ISM services PMI**4 April – Switzerland March CPI4 April – US weekly initial jobless claims5 April – Canada March labour market report**5 April – US March non-farm payrolls, labour market report***

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last week, the Nasdaq Composite finished on a
positive note as the lack of bearish catalysts kept the market supported.
Today, the futures market opened higher following the good PCE report last
Friday when the market was closed for holidays. Therefore, we can expect to see
a positive gap at the open. Overall, the path of least resistance remains to
the upside with the main two risks for the bullish sentiment being a
reacceleration in inflation leading to a hawkish Fed or a hard landing.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. We continue to trade inside the rising wedge, and
it’s worth to keep an eye on it because if the price were to break below the trendline, the
sellers will have much more conviction to look for new lows with the base of
the wedge at 14477 being the ultimate target.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price recently bounced near the bottom trendline where we had the confluence of the
red 21 moving average. The
buyers keep on stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position
for rallies into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to wait for the price to break below the trendline before considering short
positions.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been consolidating beneath a counter-trendline recently. The futures
market opened higher today, so we might see the same for the cash market, in
which case the price would effectively break above the counter-trendline. The
buyers will likely pile in immediately to position for a rally into new highs.

Upcoming
Events

This week we get the release of many key economic data.
We begin today with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job
Openings. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI data. On
Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.