Last Friday’s NFP report once again surpassed expectations,
maintaining an impressive streak of 14 consecutive beats on the headline number.
However, a closer examination of the report’s specifics reveals a less
remarkable picture. The unemployment rate experienced a significant jump from
3.4% to 3.7%, representing the largest month-over-month increase since the
beginning of the pandemic. Additionally, there was a slight decline in average
workweek hours, often signalling employers‘ inclination to reduce hours before
implementing layoffs.

Considering all factors,
this report offered something to satisfy different perspectives. The optimists
drew a positive outlook from the solid job growth, while the higher
unemployment rate and soft average hourly earnings suggested a decrease in
labour market tightness, potentially easing inflationary pressures. Some participants
may interpret the lower average weekly hours worked as a reversion to the
pre-pandemic trend.

On the contrary, the
pessimists focused more on the report’s details rather than the headline
number, recognizing that the trend holds greater significance than the absolute
figure.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, after bouncing from the key
32684 support, the Dow
Jones broke above the downward trendline and
extended the rally towards the swing high at the 33850 level. The moving averages are
about to cross to the upside, possibly signalling an imminent change in trend. If
the buyers manage to maintain the bullish momentum, the resistance at 33477
will be the natural target.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
overextended a bit as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average.
Generally, in such cases, the price consolidates or pulls back toward the
trendline to find a new equilibrium before the next move. This overextension comes
right when the Dow Jones is at the swing high resistance at 33854, which should
raise the probabilities of a pullback. The sellers are likely to pile in at
this swing high resistance with a tight stop just above it to target the 33300
support.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that a
good spot for new longs for the buyers would be the 33625 level. In fact, we
can find the confluence with
the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level, the red 21 moving average and an
upward trendline there. If that support zone fails, the buyers are likely to
retry at the 33300 level where there’s the confluence of the previous resistance turned
support and the broken downward trendline. The sellers, on
the other hand, will pile in at every downside breakout.

The market today is likely
to focus on the US ISM Services PMI report:

–
Given the impressive performance of the S&P Global
Services PMI in the previous month, there may be an anticipation for a favourable
outcome in the ISM report. If the data surpasses expectations, especially if
the prices paid sub-index indicates a lower value, we could witness a rally in
the Russell 2000 as market participants would expect a soft landing scenario.

–
Conversely, if the data disappoints expectations, it
could trigger market weakness, potentially leading to the above-mentioned
pullback or even a complete reversal.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Recap of a ForexLive previous 2023 yearly forecast and why watch 4400 on the S&P 500 emini futures

As we continue to explore the financial landscape of 2023, the spotlight remains firmly on the S&P 500. In this condensed follow-up to our previous analysis, we’ll take a unique approach to predicting this market’s trajectory, focusing specifically on the 4400 key level.

Revisiting Our Previous Forecast

In our earlier article, we delved into an eye-opening forecast for the stock market in 2023, utilizing the powerful tools of yearly candles and volume profile. We identified significant levels of support and resistance and assessed the distribution of trading activity over time.

This approach allows us to discern pivotal price levels that could influence the S&P 500’s performance. High purchasing activity at a particular price level, as indicated by the volume profile, often signals market optimism and potential future price increases.

Zooming In On the 4400 Key Level

As we advance in 2023, the 4400 mark emerges as a significant level to watch on the S&P 500. This point could serve as a critical resistance level, potentially triggering a sell-off if the price attempts to break through it. However, if the volume profile at this level shows high trading activity, it could also imply that the market is bullish, suggesting that prices may continue to climb.

Investors who purchased at highs during 2021 or 2022 could look to sell once the S&P 500 approaches this level, adding an element of volatility to the market. Therefore, careful monitoring of this key level could offer valuable insights into the S&P 500’s future direction.

Aiming For A Fruitful 2023

As we journey through 2023, staying abreast of these pivotal levels and understanding their potential impact on the S&P 500 is critical. Through careful observation and a readiness to adapt, we can better navigate the shifting market landscape.

For more insights and updates, consider visiting resources like ForexLive’s website. By staying informed, we can position ourselves for a prosperous 2023. Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results, and individual research and analysis are paramount.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a deep into the technicals defining the bias, risk and key targets for the EURUSD heading into the new trading week starting June 5, 2023. In the report, he looks at the daily chart and then drills into the hourly chart.

Get your week started on the right foot by understanding what levels are key and in play for the EURUSD. .

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The buyers in the NZDUSD tried to break higher on Friday, moving above a key 200 hour MA on the hourly chart and swing level on the daily chart. However, momentum failed and the price rotated lower.

Prior to the rally on Thursday and Friday, the price did break below the 50% midpoint of the range since 2021 low on the daily chart opening the door for lower levels. That break also failed leading the snap back rally higher.

So for the week, the sellers had their chance, and the buyers had their chance. Both failed.

As a result, the price is back in a neutral area in the short term and waiting for the next shove.

Find out the key levels in play that will give traders clues in the new trading week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD moved higher into the jobs report on Friday, but fell as yields moved higher and so did the USD. The GBPUSD fell to a support level on the hourly chart, but maintained hope for more upside from the look from the daily chart.

Monday should give traders some technical clues on who might win the next battle. The video will outline the key levels in play for the pair.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD made new cycle lows this week, but bottomed midweek and moved higher on Thursday and Friday. The move back to the upside took the pair back into a „red box“ that confined price action for 3-months. The break failed. The buyers returned.

However, the run to the upside on Friday ran into resistance against the high of a swing area on the daily chart, and a key retracement level on the hourly chart (the May trading range).

So as we head into the new week, there is key resistance on the top and key support on the downside as well and both the daily and hourly charts support those levels for different reasons.

Find out why those levels are key and where they are in this video.

Be aware. Be prepared.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a deep into the technicals defining the bias, risk and key targets for the USDJPY heading into the new trading week starting June 5, 2023. In the report, he looks at the daily chart and then drills into the hourly chart.

Get your week started on the right foot by understanding what levels are key and in play for the USDJPY. .

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF sellers had their shot on Friday on the break of the 200-hour MA, but could not sustain momentum. The better US jobs report started the wheels in motion for a move back to the upside. That took the price back above the 200 and 100-hour MAs in the process (at 0.90564 and 0.90718 respectively).

However, there is also key upside target resistance at 100-day MA and the 50% retracement of the 2023 trading range both at 0.9126. That level will be targeted next week and would need to be broken and stay broken, if the buyers are to take more control.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The key move technically in the USDCAD last week, was the move back below the 100 and 200 day MAs. That tilted the bias more to the downside for the pair from a technical perspective.

The other thing of note from the daily chart is the convergence of the 100/200-day MAs. That is indicative of a non-trending longer-term market which could be a clue for a break outside of the range… soon. Non-trend transitions to trend.

The video will outline the levels that would keep the bearish bias and potentially lead to a break outside the up and down trading range in the USDCAD pair.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• US May non-farm payrolls +339K vs +190K expected
• Fitch says will resolve US negative ratings watch in Q3
• Timiraos: Non-farm payrolls won’t resolve Fed rate scenarios
• OPEC+ is considering an additional output cut of around 1 mbpd – report
• OPEC will debate additional cut among possible options – report
• Iraq oil minister: We will not hesitate to take any decision to create more balance
• Baker Hughes oil rig counts fall -15 to 555 in the current week

Markets:

• Gold down $29 to $1948
• WTI crude oil daily +$1.85 to $71.93
• S&P 500 up 62 points to 4289
• US 10-year yields up 8.3 bps to 3.69%
• US 2-year yields up 16 bps to 4.50%
• AUD leads, JPY lags

Non-farm payrolls beat the consensus estimate for an unprecedented 14th time and it beat it in a big way but

Non-farm payrolls beat the consensus estimate for an unprecedented 14th time and it beat it in a big way but the details told a different story and capped the dollar gains, at least initially. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.7% from 3.4%, wage growth was modest and the household survey showed a large drop in employment, particularly self-employment.

Initially, the dollar gave back almost all its gains but a second dollar bid arrived later as yields rose. Front end yields led the rise and my guess is that represents a dwindling possibility of a Fed overtightening error and a higher possibility of a soft landing.

For months now, the bond market hasn’t been concerned about inflation and has instead been pricing rates and growth. With the Fed set to skip a meeting and perhaps pause, there’s less of a chance of a yo-yo in policy where they hike too high and are forced to quickly cut.
Or at least that’s one way of looking at a market that’s been tough to explain over the turn of the month.

Dollar buying accelerated in the final hours of European trading with the euro, pound and yen falling hard.
The commodity currencies kept pace with the US dollar as stocks – and value stocks in particular – jumped.

Again, that could be an indication that markets are pricing in better global growth outcomes and along with that was the earlier report that China was planning some targeted real estate stimulus. Before NFP, the market was hesitant to react to that report. For me, the details (like cutting real estate commissions) are underwhelming but at least they show that Beijing is paying attention to its disappointing economy.

Later in the day, the loonie found some bids alongside oil as some OPEC reports about the possibility of a 1 mbpd cut on Sunday did the rounds. The market reaction in oil was tepid to those headlines and that shows it’s at least partly priced in already.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.