The ECB already pre-committed to a 25 bps rate hike today and they will certainly deliver on that. There will be no surprises on that front and markets have already fully priced in such a move. As such, the decision in itself isn’t what is going to be what traders will be reacting to. Instead, it is about the communication for the September meeting.

So, what can we expect from the ECB on that front?

I’ve mentioned already in a few posts earlier and I will say it again. I would not hold high hopes for the ECB to suggest that a rate hike in September is the most likely decision that they are leaning towards. And by ECB, I mean Lagarde’s press conference later.

There might be reports coming out after the decision which could signal some conflict about being more explicit but don’t expect that to be the case when Lagarde is putting it all out on the line later today.

She should just reaffirm that there have been positive developments on inflation and that they are going to be more data dependent after the summer. I mean, it’s only prudent to do so after having seen the abysmal PMI data for July and also loan demand being crushed amid a looming credit crunch.

As such, there is reason for the ECB to step back and perhaps monitor the situation in the weeks/months ahead.

The more hawkish members will certainly feel compelled to talk up the possibility of a rate hike but if the June to July period is any indication, they may have their hands tied to explicitly make such a call.

And if so, I reckon the euro may be in for a bit more of a disappointment in reaction to the ECB later. Looking at money market pricing, there is roughly 45 bps worth of rate hikes priced in for today and September. That indicates that on the balance of things, there is more potential for a downside shift in pricing rather than any upside extension.

However, if Lagarde comes on strong about their conviction to battle inflation and brushes aside the recent economic concerns, that might still spark a tentative rally in the euro. Although I would say that the scope for gains would be quite limited.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -9

That’s a worrying sign as UK retail sales fell at its fastest pace since April last year. Adding to the woes is that stores are bracing themselves for worse times ahead, with many chains reportedly cutting orders placed with suppliers. Of note, the expectations for the month ahead reading fell to -32 from 0 previously, marking the lowest reading since March 2021. It’s not the biggest of data points but this is one that is an indicator of sentiment and what is to come, and it isn’t looking good for the UK and the pound.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Welcome to Fed day
• Eurozone June M3 money supply +0.6% vs +1.0% y/y expected
• France July consumer confidence 85 vs 86 expected
• Switzerland July Credit Suisse investor sentiment -32.6 vs -30.8 prior
• Japan official citing BOJ’s Ueda says long-term yields remain stable under YCC
• Japan keeps overall view on the economy in July
• NAB now sees no RBA rate hike in August

Markets:

• JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 2.5 bps to 3.886%
• Gold up 0.4% to $1,972.53
• WTI crude down 1.0% to $78.80
• Bitcoin down 0.1% to $29,202

It was a quiet session for the most part but there were some decent moves in the market as we await the Fed policy decision later this week.

The dollar is keeping more mixed but slightly lower on the balance of things while European equities are seeing a minor selloff, led by French stocks after LVMH earnings weigh on luxury stocks.

USD/JPY held higher in Asia near 141.00 but is dragged lower to 140.20 currently, as we see some positioning flows come in with both the Fed and BOJ in play this week. Of note, there was a FT report late yesterday suggesting a potential BOJ surprise tweak so perhaps traders are reacting to that.

Besides that, the euro and pound are just mildly higher against the dollar while the commodity currencies are lagging. USD/CAD is up 0.3% to just above 1.3200 as oil prices are lower. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is down 0.6% to 0.6750 after a softer CPI report earlier in the day.

There’s not much else really driving trading sentiment as we count down to the Fed decision later, which will have a significant impact on how things will play out for the rest of the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After the
news of BlackRock filing a Bitcoin ETF on June
15th, we saw the cryptocurrency surging in value going briefly from the 25K
level to the 31K one. Bitcoin resilience has been remarkable given the hawkish
repricing in interest rates expectations and the regulatory crackdowns we saw
in the past weeks/months. The struggle to break above the 31K level though suggests
that we might be at a point where if the risk sentiment turns negative, Bitcoin
can selloff pretty hard. In fact, despite the positive risk sentiment in the
markets due to the miss in the US CPI report and the soft-landing vibes,
Bitcoin broke below a key support level which may signal a bigger selloff into
the previous support at 25231.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after failing
to break above the 31K resistance multiple
times, Bitcoin started to lose its bullish momentum and the price eventually
fell below the key support level at 29500 that defined the month-long range.
The bias has now switched to bearish, and the sellers will look for key levels
where they can lean on to extend the fall into the 25231 support.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the first try
for the sellers should come right at the broken support turned resistance at the
29500 level. In fact, we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the
resistance with conviction to start piling in and target the 31K level again.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that if
there won’t be enough bullish momentum to push the price into the resistance,
the sellers may enter also when the price breaks below the recent swing low at
29070.

Upcoming Events

Today the Fed is
expected to hike by 25 bps and the market will be focused on signals of future
policy moves and if it’s likely that the Fed will pause or continue to hike.
Tomorrow, the focus will switch on the US Jobless Claims where a big miss
should weigh on risk sentiment and lead to more downside for Bitcoin, whole a
big beat should support the cryptocurrency in the short-term. Finally, on
Friday, we will see the latest US PCE and ECI reports with the market likely to
be more attentive to the wages data.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +1.1%
• Market index 206.9 vs 210.7 prior
• Purchase index 159.2 vs 163.2 prior
• Refinance index 444.5 vs 446.4 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.87% vs 6.87% prior

Mortgage applications fell in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activity showing declines. The overall market remains rather subdued after the drop in sentiment since last year, as the Fed’s tightening policy weighs on housing conditions.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This is looking like positioning flows ahead of the Fed and BOJ, more than anything else if you ask me. There was a bit of a pop yesterday as well amid light trading to 141.70 before a quick retreat to 141.20 again. That is now followed by a further decline to a low of 140.24 earlier, and we are just off that now.

The downside move also gained some traction after a fall below the 100-hour moving average (red line) earlier. As such, that opens up room to maneuver towards 140.00 next potentially as well.

As much as we are seeing yen bulls get their hopes squandered ahead of the BOJ decision on Friday, there’s still an outside risk of the central bank surprising. And as mentioned here, that would be the biggest surprise definitely this week if it were to happen.

So far today, the drop here is still suggestive of a more mixed dollar mood. EUR/USD is up slightly by 0.15% to 1.1070 but GBP/USD is down 0.05% to 1.2893. Meanwhile, the commodity currencies are also holding lower with USD/CAD inching just above 1.3200 and AUD/USD still down 0.5% to 0.6755 at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The weakness in the global manufacturing sector and
especially in the Chinese economy have been weighing a lot on Copper prices. We
had a good rally after the Chinese inflation data raised the risks of deflation
in China and the market expected more easing measures from the central bank.
Unfortunately, those expectations were wrong and the PBoC didn’t do anything on
the rates front causing a disappointment in the market and another selloff. On
Monday, China pledged more stimulus to support
the economy and Copper prices rallied consequently.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after the news
of more stimulus coming from China, Copper rallied again all the way back to
the key 3.9575 resistance where we
have also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The buyers will need the price to break above this strong level to get the
conviction for more upside and target the 4.1855 swing level.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the first try
of a breakout failed and the price got rejected from the resistance as the
sellers stepped in to position for another low. We can notice that the price
action is forming a major ascending triangle pattern.
The price can break on either side of such patterns, but what follows a
breakout is generally a strong move. So, this is something to watch out for.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is testing a strong support level where we have the previous swing high
level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers may lean on this
level with a defined risk below to target the breakout. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and extend the fall
into the 3.8245 support.

Upcoming Events

The most likely report that can move the
market will be the US Jobless Claims on
Thursday. The data needs to deviate notably from the expected figures though as
numbers more or less in line with expectations are unlikely to be market moving.
Anyway, a big miss should weigh on Copper as the market may get some
recessionary vibes, while a big beat should support the Copper prices as the
soft-landing narrative would remain intact.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• China appoints Pan Gongsheng as new PBOC governor
• Eurozone firms‘ demand for credit falls to lowest on record in Q2 – ECB survey
• Germany July Ifo business climate index 87.3 vs 88.0 expected
• UK July CBI trends total orders -9 vs -18 expected
• AUD/USD keeps the early week bounce going

Markets:

• AUD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities a touch higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 4.3 bps to 3.900%
• Gold up 0.1% to $1,956.83
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $78.87
• Bitcoin down 0.1% to $29,120

It was a quiet session as markets are preparing themselves for a host of major central bank decisions to come later this week. The first of which will be the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

In light of that, there was little appetite among traders in Europe today with light changes all across the board. The dollar is keeping steady with the euro still feeling the hangover from yesterday’s PMI slump.

EUR/USD remains little changed, down slightly to 1.1045 on the day. The rest of the other dollar pairs showed extremely little poise, with USD/JPY keeping flattish around 141.40 levels through the session.

The aussie is up slightly, benefiting from the stronger Chinese yuan today. But even AUD/USD is up just 0.3% to 0.6760 and still limited by key near-term technical levels.

In the equities space, European stocks are not doing a whole lot and US futures are also mostly little changed. Tech shares are up slightly so we’ll see if that can carry sentiment when Wall Street enters later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Beijing has moved to remove Yi Gang from the post of PBOC governor and he has been replaced with Pan Gongsheng. Meanwhile, Qin Gang has been removed from the post of foreign minister and will be replaced with Wang Yi. From before:

• ICYMI: China made a big change at the country’s central bank this week (4 July)

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The miss in the US CPI
report triggered a big selloff in the USD, but the greenback came back pretty
fast as the US data kept on surprising to the upside with the last week US Initial Claims falling back to record low levels
confirming once again the strength of the labour market. The US PMIs yesterday showed a mixed picture though with
the Services PMI missing expectations, although remaining in expansionary
territory, and the Manufacturing PMI jumping from 46.2 to 49.0 although still
in contraction.

The RBA, on the other hand,
kept its cash rate unchanged with the usual hawkish comments and the promise of
doing more if the data suggests so. In fact, the recent RBA meeting minutes showed that there was a strong case
for a rate hike but the central bank decided that holding steady was a better
choice and they will reconsider at the August meeting. The data for now points
to another rate hike as the Australian Jobs report last week surprised again to the
upside.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD couldn’t
break above the 0.69 resistance again
and sold off all the way down to the 0.6720 level basically erasing all the
gains after the miss in the US CPI report. The price has bounced on the red 21 moving average and it’s
now testing the resistance at 0.6781.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a good
resistance level at 0.6781 where we can also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. We
should see the sellers leaning on this level with a defined risk above the
resistance and target the 0.67 support first, and upon a breakout, the 0.6563
level. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the
resistance to pile in and target the 0.69 handle again.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely
the key resistance to watch. This is where the market should decide where it’s
going to go in the next days or weeks. Above the resistance, the bias is
bullish, while below the level it’s bearish.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US
Consumer Confidence report. This report is usually not a market mover, but if
we get some big surprise, we should see the market reacting to it. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest inflation figures for Australia, and they will be decisive
for the next RBA meeting. Later in the day, the Fed is expected to hike by 25
bps, but the market will want to see if there are any hints to something else
or they just reaffirm their data dependency. On Thursday, the US Jobless Claims
is likely to lead to more USD strength if the data beats expectations and some
weakness if the data misses. Finally, on Friday, we will see the latest US PCE
and ECI reports with the market likely to be more focused on the wages data
given the tightness of the labour market.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.