EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0825 currently, sitting near the highs for the day. The range today may be relatively narrow still but buyers are seen making a play once again as they contest the 100-hour moving average:

The key level has been a solid near-term spot for sellers to lean on in driving the pair lower from 1.1000 to just below 1.0800 last week. That also resulted in a break below its 100-day moving average, but now that move in itself is being called into question as highlighted earlier today here.

This is certainly keeping things interesting to start the new week and a hold above the 100-hour moving average noted above, will allow for buyers to wrestle back some near-term control. That will open up some room for price action to roam in between that (now at 1.0823) and the 200-hour moving average, now at 1.0867.

As highlighted in the linked post above, this isn’t the only dollar pair which is seeing its breakout move called into question. USD/JPY is also trading flattish at 137.90 now but is seeing its break above 138.00 last week get checked back at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In this analysis, I will provide a detailed technical analysis of Tesla’s stock price forecast, accompanied by a trade idea that utilizes a unique Fibonacci entry method. I discuss the recent price movements, identify potential patterns, and suggest a trade strategy for traders considering a Long position with TSLA stock. Please note that trading involves risk, and it is important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.

Analyzing Tesla’s Stock on the Daily Time Frame

Since late 2020, Tesla’s stock has shown indications of a head and shoulders pattern on the daily time frame. The pattern consists of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder. Following the failed attempt at forming the right shoulder and the subsequent break of the neckline, the stock experienced a significant drop, eventually reaching the measured move level.

The measured move is determined by measuring the distance from the top of the pattern to the neckline break and projecting it downward. In this case, Tesla’s stock price dropped from the top to the measured move level.

Technical Analysis and Trade Idea for TSLA Bulls (using Fib entry)

The above video provides further analyis on more recent price action, and creates a trade plan for gradual, step-by-step, ’scaling in‘ buys at increasingly lower prices. If the stock price is reached, the pre-made, exising buy orders will get filled.

Futher points covered in the above video :

• Tesla Stock Price Forecast 2023: Analysis and Fibonacci Trade Idea
• Analyzing Tesla Stock: Technical Analysis and Head and Shoulders Pattern
• Understanding the Bull Flag Pattern: Upside Potential for Tesla Stock
• Fibonacci Entry Method: Optimizing Trade Entry Points for Tesla
• Managing Risk and Targeting Profits: Stop Loss and Profit Targets

Make sure you have watched the entire video above and feel free to subscribe you the ForexLive.com Youtube Channel and activate alerts to get notified as our videos are published.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

US President Biden is in Japan for the G7 leaders‘ summit.

While the cat’s away the mice are not making progress. This is the latest out of Washington politics surrounding the debt ceiling negotiations:

US House Speaker Republican Kevin McCarthy

• said he is not seeing progress while the President is away –

  “Unfortunately, the White House moved backwards,” McCarthy told reporters (link to US politics media, The Hill, for more if you are interested)

Meanwhile on the Dem side, this is from another US politics media source, Politico reporter tweet:

• „Democrats in the White House and on Capitol Hill say negotiations are going in the wrong direction“
• „They say Republicans’ demands keep going further to the right.“

—-

Biden is meeting with Japan, South Korea, and then separately with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday (Japan time). Biden will hold a media conference later in the day. He’ll be back in Washington for more debt talks, likely from Monday although he could arrive back on Sunday evening USA time.

—

US House Speaker Republican McCarthy & US President Biden.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Ding. Ding. Ding. Stocks close lower as debt ceiling talks stall.
• ECBs Lagarde: We should not trade-off price stability and financial stability
• US 2 year yield has the biggest gain since September 2022
• Jake Sherman: Nothing to report from Washington
• WTI Crude oil settles at $71.55
• Gold rebounds toward its 100 hour moving average today
• German DAX closes at the highest level on record
• Bakers Hughes oil rig count falls 11 to 575
• House Majority Leader McCarthy: yesterday I really felt we had a path to an agreement
• ECB’s Schnabel:Wage growth has picked up substantially.Concerns about second-round effects
• White House: Both sides need to recognize they will get everything they want in a deal
• Fed Powell summary: Inflation is still too high, but risk is more balanced.
• GOP debt negotiators : White House is not being reasonable.
• Fed Powell: Inflation is far above that objective
• ECB Schnabel: ECB can continue to do whatever needed to bring inflation back to 2% target
• US imposes new sanctions against Russia
• Feds Bowman: No monetary policy or economic comments
• Feds Williams: No comments on monetary policy or economic outlook from NY Fed President
• Canada retail sales March -1.4% versus -1.4% expected
• German DAX trades to a new record high
• The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North American session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Light dollar pullback ahead of Powell

The negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling were put on hold. Dems pointed the finger at the GOP. The GOP pointed the finger at the Dems. Pres. Biden comes back from the G7 over the weekend, and I am sure both sides, know what is at stake. Nevertheless, the development alarmed market participants as they headed into the weekend. Initially, yields moved off high levels as focus was on expected lower growth. The dollar moved lower. Gold rebounded. Stocks slid. However, moves were somewhat limited.

Meanwhile (and at the same time), Fed’s Powell was participating in a panel discussion with former Fed Chair Bernanke. Powell picked his words closely and covered most bases in the process. Powell suggests that due to tightening bank credit conditions, policy rates might not need to rise as high as might otherwise be expected. Nevertheless, he notes that market pricing suggests a different rate path than the Fed, presumably anticipating a more rapid decrease in inflation. However, he maintains that current data support the view that reducing inflation will take time. He also highlights the inclusion of risk compensation in market prices (lowering rates below what even analysts expect). Finally, Powell states that while the Fed has not yet determined whether rates are sufficiently restrictive (inflation is still too high), the objective is to reach a sufficiently restrictive policy stance. The Fed hasn’t decided on how much more tightening might be necessary, but Powell suggests that the balance between doing too much and too little is becoming more evenly balanced.

After the dust settled, and the events were over, the US stocks are ending the day modestly lower. Yields are ending higher, but close to the middle of the ranges. The USD is ending the day as the weakest of the majors (despite higher rates) but off the lowest of levels.

Looking at the strongest to the weakest rankings, the NZD and the CHF are ending as the strongest of the majors. The USD and the CAD are the weakest.

For the trading week, the USD is closing mixed with the USD moving the most to the upside vs the JPY, but falling vs the NZD. The USDs changes showed:

• EUR +0.40%
• JPY, +1.51%
• GBP +0.06%
• CHF +0.11%
• CAD, -0.46%
• AUD, -0.09%
• NZD – 1.37%

The price of oil rose 2.61% which benefitted the CAD (the USD fell -0.46% vs the CAD). Gold meanwhile fell -1.67% this week. The move lower did not hurt the AUD (it ended little changed vs the greenback). The USD rose modestly versus the EUR by +0.40%. Overall, the dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.47%.

For US stocks this week:

• Dow rose 0.38%
• S&P rose 1.65%
• Nasdaq rose 3.04%.

In the US debt market, yields moved higher this week with the 2-year having its biggest week move since September 2022. The 10-year is ending the week up the most since February.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are ending the day lower. The excuse will be the debt ceiling talks stalling (for now), but if there was a lot of worry, the stock market would be down much more.

Technically, however, the S&P index could not close above the 4200 natural level (it is closing at 4191.99), nor could the price of the S&P close above its 100-week moving average at 4201.1. Close but no cigar. That could be problematic from a technical perspective. It will take a move above the 100-week moving average next week to give the buyers more ammunition for further upside probing. Absent that and we could be in store for a corrective week.

Although closing lower, the major indices are closing higher in the week.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average -109.30 points or -0.33% at 33426.64.
• S&P index -6.07 points or -0.14% at 4191.99
• NASDAQ index -30.95 points or -0.24% at 12657.89

For the trading week, the major indices are closing higher:

• Dow industrial average eked out a 0.38% gain.
• S&P index close up 1.65%
• NASDAQ index was the beginner with a 3.04% rise

Big winners included AI stocks:

• Nvidia up 10.31%
• Alphabet +4.48%
• Microsoft +3.03%

Another AI stock, Adobe rose 3.05% today and was up 10.73% on the week. Adobe will announce its earnings on June 15. Nvidia will announce its earnings next Wednesday after the close. Both earnings will be important in the short term for the AI euphoria.

The KRE Etf of regional banks closed lower on the day by -1.78%, but was still up 7.81% on the week on less banking fear. Neverthless, Treasury Sec. Yellen did warn that there may be more consolidation in the banking sector, and that reversed earlier gains.

PS. Technically, the KRE price tested the 200-hour MA at the highs today (at $40.36 – green line) before rotating lower. That did not help as the recent price history shows, the 200 hour MA is a level for sellers to lean against. However, the price is closing above the 100-hour MA at $37.88. The price is in a neutral area technically between the 100 and 200 hour MAs.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

ECB’s Lagarde is speaking and says:

• ECB will do what is necessary to deliver price stability
• We should not trade-off price stability and financial stability
• We can successfully pursue both goals at the same time

Nothing new here

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD is rotating back lower in the US afternoon. The pair moved higher as Fed Powell (may not have to tighten as much due to banks slow lending), and the debt ceiling talk stall sent rates lower and the USD lower with it.

Technically, the price for the EURUSD moved above its 100-day MA at 1.0807 but stalled ahead of the falling 100-hour MA (blue line currently at 1.0832). The high reached 1.0828. Buyers turned to sellers.

The price has rotated lower and now trades below its 100-day moving average once again. The current price is trading at 1.0799.

We are heading into the weekend and then into a new trading week, but what is clear from the hourly chart at least is that the price has been able to stay below the 100-hour moving average since May 8. There have been 4 separate tests at lower successive levels, and each test has found willing sellers. The prices also looking to close a week below its 100-day moving average which is a more bearish bias shift.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US 2-year yield is up about 30 basis points on the week trading at 4.296%. The high-yield today reached 4.349% the highest level since March 15, 2023. The move to the upside this week is the largest gain since the week of September 19, 2022, when yields moved up nearly 34 basis points. Ironically, the yield settled at 4.212% that week just 8 basic points away from the current level of 4.296%.

The catalyst to the upside this week was a better tone in regional banks. That took some of the flight to safety flows out of the market and had traders pricing in more Fed cuts into 2024.

The KRE regional bank ETF rose by 7.26% this week.

Boston Fed president Logan yesterday said she would pencil in a 25 basis point hike in June given current economic data. Feds Bullard also tilted toward another 25 basis point hike.

The January fed funds futures now implies 4.65%. That is still below the current target rate of 5.25%, but the implied yield in May reached as low as 4% back on May 4 and 4.22% as recently as May 11.

Although higher, the 2 year yield is still well off its high for 2023 at 5.085% reached on March 8, 2023

Further out the yield curve, the 10-year yield is up 25 basis points this week, or 6.599%. That is its largest 1 week gain since December 19, 2022 week. The yield today moved to a high of 3.719% which is the highest level since March 13, 2023. The high-yield in 2023 reached 4.089% on March 2. The high cycle yield was back on October 21, 2022 at 4.335%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar gains stall for now but the technicals look good
• Dollar back in the driver’s seat
• How has the Fed pricing changed in the past week?
• ECB’s Lagarde: We are heading towards more delicate decisions going forward
• ECB reportedly to step up scrutiny of bank liquidity, may raise requirements
• BOJ’s Ueda: Appropriate to take time in determining when to modify easy policy
• BOJ’s Ueda: Japan inflation likely to slow back below 2% in middle of current fiscal year
• China state banks reportedly seen swapping yuan for dollars in onshore forwards market
• Germany April PPI +0.3% vs -0.5% m/m expected

Markets:

• NZD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 0.7 bps to 3.655%
• Gold up 0.3% to $1,963.53
• WTI crude up 1.0% to $72.60
• Bitcoin up 0.5% to $26,843

There weren’t many major headlines during the session as European trading featured a quieter and calmer mood. The dollar saw its gains from yesterday cut back a little, but remains in a favourable spot overall. That comes as European indices rush higher again with the DAX hovering at fresh record highs currently.

The positive momentum in the equities space is continuing after the tech-heavy gains in Wall Street and US futures are also holding higher again today.

That is at least helping with a light pullback in the dollar with EUR/USD moving back to 1.0800 but still keeping just below its 100-day moving average at 1.0806. Meanwhile, USD/JPY did move lower to touch 138.00 but is now seen at around 138.40, still 0.2% down on the day, as bond yields recover from an early retreat.

Amid the more optimistic mood, the antipodeans are notable gainers with AUD/USD keeping a bounce from 0.6600 yesterday to stick around 0.6650 levels. NZD/USD is also seen up 0.8% to 0.6275, trying to nudge above its own 100-day moving average.

Elsewhere, gold is also seeing a minor bounce to $1,963 but it still doesn’t take away from the break of support at $1,975-81 from yesterday.

All eyes now move to Fed chair Powell’s speech to wrap up the week, so we’ll have to see if there is any angle for traders to work with or if we will see a continuation of the technical play in the dollar.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The latest retreat has roughly two parts to it as gold bulls were once again unable to chase a break above $2,070-75 from the 2020 and 2022 highs, as well as the dollar and bond yields moving higher in tandem. That pushed gold back towards the support region around $1,975-81 and that eventually gave way in trading yesterday.

While there is a bit of a pullback now with dollar gains easing up, gold is still trading below $1,970 and sellers are keeping in near-term control for now. Here’s a look at the daily chart:

Unless we do see price climb back above the $1,975-81 region, gold looks poised for a deeper pullback at this point in time. The next plausible target seems to be closer towards the 100-day moving average (red line) at around $1,928.

Beyond that, it could prove to be a slippery slope for gold prices as it lurches back towards $1,800+ levels. I would rate the odds of such a strong pullback as being limited but I wouldn’t discount the risks, especially since markets have been underestimating the dollar side of the equation since the regional banking crisis.

We’ve gone from pricing three Fed rate cuts by year-end to two now and that is exerting its influence on the dollar this week. If there is more to come, that means that the dollar rally may have legs to go and that doesn’t bode well for gold in the short-term.

That said, in the bigger picture, I still like gold’s long-term outlook especially as we draw closer towards the end of the tightening cycle. A deeper pullback to $1,800+ levels will present a very attractive dip buying opportunity in my view and I’d pile in on more longs there.

I wouldn’t go as far as to say that chasing gold shorts on a move under $1,800 is the way to go considering the balance of risks. As such, it is setting up to be a buy on dips kind of thing for gold in my view.

Of course, there still needs to be a break above $2,070-75 in the big picture but if we do return back to the expected playbook during the second-half of this year, I reckon the topside level could easily be taken out as we move towards next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.