Headlines:

• Bond yields turn lower ahead of US trading
• Aussie still feeling the weight of the RBA decision yesterday
• Third time’s the charm for gold?
• Equities stay more cautious so far today
• ECB’s Vasle: Core inflation is still clearly on an upwards trend
• ECB’s Vujčić: Further rate hikes may be needed to address core inflation
• Germany February industrial orders +4.8% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• Eurozone March final services PMI 55.0 vs 55.6 prelim
• UK March final services PMI 52.9 vs 52.8 prelim

Markets:

• JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities slightly lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 3.353%
• Gold up 0.2% to $2,023.14
• WTI crude down 0.1% to $80.65
• Bitcoin up 1.0% to $28,551

It was a rather tentative session for the most part as major currencies were more tentative before a late turn in the bond market is sparking some decent action.

We are seeing bond yields trip lower now ahead of US trading, with some watchful eyes on the ADP employment data to come.

That is weighing on yen pairs with USD/JPY slipping from 131.75 earlier to 131.40 levels now with other major currencies also losing some ground against both the dollar and yen. That comes amid a more cautious risk mood, with equities slightly more sluggish.

GBP/USD backed away from the 1.2500 mark again to hold around 1.2475 while the aussie sagged as the post-RBA fallout continues to reverberate. AUD/USD is down 0.8% to below 0.6700 and that inadvertently put a drag on the kiwi as well, which erased its post-RBNZ gains from earlier as NZD/USD fell from 0.6350 to 0.6300 on the session.

Elsewhere, gold is maintaining its composure above the $2,020 mark mostly while oil is seeing a bit more push and pull in keeping above $80 for now still.

On to the next data series ahead of the Friday jobs report then. Anyone fashion a good roulette table for the ADP draw?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Keep an eye on the move here as we could see wider reverberations come about later on. USD/JPY is also seen down 0.2% now to 131.45 from around 131.75 earlier in the session. As I mentioned here earlier, this is one of the focal points in markets at the moment with 10-year yields in the US on the threshold.

Besides the usual spillovers to the Japanese yen and US dollar, do keep a watchful eye on gold as it maintains the break above the $2,000 mark from yesterday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily Nasdaq chart below, we
can see that after breaking out of the bull
flag, the market has rallied towards the key resistance level at 12274. The buyers will
want to see a clear break above it to start targeting the next resistance at
13186. The moving
averages are crossed to the upside, so the trend remains bullish and the buyers
are in control.

As long as the US data doesn’t
come out ugly, the buyers seem to be comfortable charging higher. Today we will
see the US ISM Service PMI and it’s a key economic
indicator for the services sector which remained resilient despite the
aggressive tightening and the recession fears.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that we have a trendline now that will be used as a
support for the buyers. If we get a pullback here, the price is likely to
retrace back to the trendline where there is also the red long period moving
average for confluence. The buyers are likely to pile
in there, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking below the trendline
to jump onboard and target the support at 11492.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the 12014 level is indeed a strong support for the buyers. Not only we
will have the trendline and the 4 hour long period moving average, but also the
38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. What happens at this level is likely to
decide the next big move. A bounce should bring us to the 12274 resistance if
not higher and a breakout should lead to a selloff back to the 11492
support.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

The emphasis on core inflation continues to point to the idea that ECB policymakers are still leaning in favour of another rate hike at least, even if they can’t explicitly say that at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After the setback yesterday, stocks are holding a more tentative and cautious mood so far in European trading. Here’s a snapshot of things:

• Eurostoxx -0.2%
• Germany DAX -0.3%
• France CAC 40 -0.2%
• UK FTSE +0.4%
• S&P 500 futures -0.2%
• Nasdaq futures -0.2%
• Dow futures -0.2%

For the DAX and CAC 40 indices, it is a bit of a light retreat after running up against its highest levels for the year in trading yesterday.

The JOLTS report yesterday was perhaps a reason for the pessimism creeping into equities and that makes for a bit of trepidation ahead of the ADP report later in the day.

That said, I would be remiss not to point out that you can pretty much draw up a dart board and throw to any figure there to get the ADP number these days. It has not been any accurate indicator of what to expect from the non-farm payrolls data for the longest of time now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily USDCAD chart below, we can
see that after breaking the key <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 1.3664, the pair just
sold off massively helped also by the rising oil prices. Yesterday, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CIPuZN0R/?symbol=NYMEX%3ACL1%21″>oil
even gapped up</a> in a big way following surprise cuts by OPEC+ on
Sunday. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The USD is also under pressure as
the market is trading on interest rates expectations at the moment with the Fed
expected to end its hiking cycle at the May meeting barring any awful economic
data. At this point, only very ugly economic data can help the US Dollar as the
market would switch from the rates trade to the recession trade and the USD
would be sought as a safe haven.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the downtrend is well sustained. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> act as resistance and the buyers will want to wait for them to cross to
the upside to give some confirmation of a change in trend. Yesterday we also
got very weak <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/is-ism-march-manufacturing-index-463-vs-475-prelim-20230403/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> data, which may be an early sign that the economic
data are about to turn south again after a bounce in January and February. It
may also be a sign that the recent banking troubles may have indeed caused some
pain. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1
hour chart below, we can see that after breaking the support the price started
to trade within a channel. If we get a pullback, the sellers may lean on the
upper bound of the channel and a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see a breakout to the upside before piling in and target the previous support
turned resistance at 1.3664. Tomorrow we have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Services PMI</a> and if even those tumble, then
we may start to see the market trading the recession.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>In nearly a
month, the Finance Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:23) will kick off, constituting
the largest event of the year in Africa. The landmark summit will be held from
May 8-10, 2023 at the prestigious Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg,
South Africa. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>As one of the
most hotly anticipated events of 2023, FMAS:23 is all about luxury and
prestige. This starts with the venue itself in Sandton, one of the province’s largest convention centers. The famous
Sandton Convention Centre is located in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://sandtoncity.com/about-us/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>heart of the vibrant Sandton district</a>, home to
some 300,000 residents and over 10,000 businesses speaking to its energy and
activity.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Sandton
is widely recognized as “the richest square mile in Africa,” and it remains a
top destination for both locals and international travelers visiting the city
of Johannesburg.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Sandton
continues to flourish and offer first-class services to those who work, stay,
play, or shop here.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Be a
part of a historic and unforgettable event this May and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://events.financemagnates.com/fmas2023/register/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>signup today</a>!
Reserve your seat today and experience all Sandton has to offer.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>VIP Experience
in South Africa</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>FMAS:23 is all
about luxury. This starts with the opening Blitz Party. Attendees can look to
mingle with their peers and the biggest brands as well as networking with the
best in the business. This is your chance to live the life of luxury, meeting
the most influential people in finance and start the expo off on the right
foot.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The Blitz party
will be the prelude to the main event, featuring two days of curated content
covering four industry verticals. With Africa taking center stage, join
industry leaders, executives, brands, and traders to discuss the future of trading
on the continent, and much more.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>FMAS:23 will be
attracting the largest speakers and influencers in the industry. From inspiring
keynotes to informative panel discussions, you’ll have access to a wealth of
knowledge and experience that will help you take your life to the next level.
This is your chance to learn from the best and gain a competitive edge.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>All prospective
attendees are invited to dive into the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.financemagnates.com/fm-events/fmas23-explore-the-live-agenda/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>in-depth
agenda</a>, which is already live and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://events.financemagnates.com/fmas2023/agenda/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>available for access</a>.
See what sessions hold the most appeal – with so many angles and areas of
focus, there is something for everyone.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The landmark
event will conclude on the final day with an exclusive VIP closing party. This
is one party you won’t want to miss! The all-exclusive VIP closing party at
Sandton San Deck is the perfect way to celebrate the success of FMAS:23 and
network with even more amazing people. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>You’ll leave
feeling inspired, energized, and ready to take on whatever challenges lie
ahead. So, what are you waiting for? Don’t miss out on this incredible
opportunity to live the life of luxury, fame, and network with the best in the
industry. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Eurostoxx +0.7%</li><li>Germany DAX +0.9%</li><li>France CAC 40 +0.7%</li><li>UK FTSE +0.1%</li><li>S&amp;P 500 futures +0.4%</li><li>Nasdaq futures +0.5%</li><li>Dow futures +0.2%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The DAX is at the highs for the year and the CAC 40 is threatening fresh record highs as equities continue to rip higher this morning. There’s no exact catalyst but this carries over the momentum from last week, as markets also get more comfortable after the banking turmoil begins to ebb.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It has been a straightforward run up since European traders got to their desks today. Here’s the action in S&amp;P 500 futures:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin has
been experiencing intense ups and downs this week but remains close to $28,000.
This dynamic is looks like a quarterly portfolio shakeout, and predicting the
next local move is difficult.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>At the same
time, we note the slight downward slope of local highs and lows. The Q1
successes have created a demand for profit-taking. In the coming days, it is
worth keeping an eye on the trading range boundaries. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
CryptoQuant, the number of BTCs in exchange wallets is rising. Since the end of
March, traders have sent coins to exchanges to sell later.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>An
accelerated decline at $27.5K would raise the prospect of a deeper correction
to $25K, where the price could go quickly. A consolidation above $28.5K would
indicate that the sideways trend of the last two weeks is over and that the
price is ready to move higher.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
CoinShares, investments in crypto funds increased by a modest $2.5 million last
week, following a $160 million increase the week before. Bitcoin investments
rose by $9 million, while Ethereum fell by $3 million.</p><p>News background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>BTC miners
reported their best results since May last year. Bitcoin mining companies
collectively generated $755 million in revenue in March.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Two law
firms are suing Binance for $1 billion for promoting unregistered securities.
This is the second lawsuit against the exchange, on top of one from the CFTC
last week.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
Kaiko, Binance’s spot market share has dropped significantly in the past week.
The CFTC’s investigation could last for years, so the outflow of funds will
continue.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Looser stance can be achieved through lower bank rate today or in the future</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Expects that with current high level of bank rate, it would require an earlier and faster reversal</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That is to avoid a significant inflation undershoot</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In the absence of further shocks, sees inflation likely falling well below target</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The message is definitely a bizarre one when you take into context double-digit inflation in the UK upon the latest reading <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-february-cpi-104-vs-99-yy-expected-20230322/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. But she has been adamant that rate hikes have gone too far for a while now. I think it is really quite something to see such diverging views within the central bank – even at this stage of the tightening cycle.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.