<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The RBA played it straight today, offering no major surprises as they raised the cash rate by 50 bps to 2.35% and hinted that rates are now in neutral territory. The thing about their latest move is that they are now very much following what the Fed is doing, so essentially one can think of it as the US central bank as being at the wheel while the RBA is merely the passenger going along for the ride.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That means if the Fed decides to slow down in the tightening cycle, so will the RBA. In that sense, the aussie can’t really find the edge in terms of policy backdrop. And when you weigh that against the landscape of falling equities, growing economic worries, and the dollar still being the cleanest shirt among the dirty laundry, it’s hard to see AUD/USD gain materially.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The only comfort is that the aussie isn’t going to perform as badly as the likes of the yen, euro, and pound in this environment. But in the case of an extended drop in equities, the aussie may still find itself in a tough spot as global recession worries play out.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For now though, the technicals suggest a likely return for AUD/USD towards the July lows with the head and shoulders pattern looking to exert itself on price action in the pair:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The July lows around 0.6681-14 will be the next key support region to watch alongside weekly trendline support (August to November 2021 lows) at around 0.6692. The weekly chart also points to support from the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 0.6756 so the confluence of support levels will be vital in trying to keep the pair afloat for the time being:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The firm notes that while natural gas pries have corrected lower in the past few weeks, they still represent a source of downside risk for EUR/USD especially. They argue that the euro area growth outlook is continuing to deteriorate and that inflation shows no signs of easing just yet. Adding that:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“The ECB is expected to make additional outsized moves in upcoming meetings (67/58/48 bps priced in for the Sept/Oct/Dec meetings) but hiking into a recession and further widening of BTP-Bund spreads is likely to mitigate any positive impact of higher rates on FX.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>They maintain a bearish bias on EUR/USD and eye further downside in EUR/JPY as well as EUR/CHF. Some snapshots from the report:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Will deal with the crisis in people’s energy bills</li><li>Will deal with long-term issues on energy supply</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>She’s going to have a tough time to balance out keeping a tight fiscal line and throwing money at the problem in trying to tackle the energy and cost-of-living crisis that is worsening in the UK. There is a good thread <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1566703806825615362″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>here</a> by ITV’s Robert Peston on how Truss‘ idea in dealing with surging energy prices might not actually work out well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The JMMC meeting seems to be taking a bit longer than expected but if this is the decision, it is a symbolic one. As mentioned at the start of the day, such a move will be bullish for oil prices and we are seeing a reaction already. WTI crude just hit a high of $90.10 on the day, up over 3% at the moment.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-in-control-to-start-the-new-week-20220905/“>Dollar in control to start the new week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-benchmark-dutch-ttf-gas-futures-open-up-26-higher-to-start-the-week-20220905/“>European benchmark Dutch TTF gas futures open up 26% higher to start the week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/russia-says-europe-is-to-blame-on-nord-stream-shutdown-20220905/“>Russia says Europe is to blame on Nord Stream shutdown</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/pboc-cuts-fx-reserve-ratio-by-200-bps-to-restrain-yuan-weakness-20220905/“>PBOC cuts FX reserve ratio by 200 bps to restrain yuan weakness</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-august-final-services-pmi-498-vs-502-prelim-20220905/“>Eurozone August final services PMI 49.8 vs 50.2 prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-september-sentix-investor-confidence-318-vs-275-expected-20220905/“>Eurozone September Sentix investor confidence -31.8 vs -27.5 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-august-final-services-pmi-509-vs-525-prelim-20220905/“>UK August final services PMI 50.9 vs 52.5 prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/switzerland-q2-gdp-03-vs-04-qq-expected-20220905/“>Switzerland Q2 GDP +0.3% vs +0.4% q/q expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>USD leads, EUR lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures flat</li><li>Gold up 0.1% to $1,712.93</li><li>WTI crude up 3.2% to $89.62</li><li>Bitcoin down 1.4% to $19,681</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As Russia switches off the gas on Europe, energy prices in the region are sent jumping in the new week. We’re not revisiting the highs in the past two weeks but the surge higher is notable as concerns continue to grow about the energy crisis in Europe. For some context, the benchmark Dutch TTF futures are up 30% to €272 MW/h.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Regional equities are weighed lower on the worries with the DAX bearing the brunt of the declines, down nearly 3% on the day. European bond yields are also lower as the negative development weigh on sentiment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In FX though, the dollar continues to reign supreme with EUR/USD briefly trading to fresh 20-year lows below 0.9900 before keeping 0.3% down around 0.9920 currently. GBP/USD continues to be pressured below 1.1500, though the pair is holding off the lows for now near the figure level.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY is also sticky above 140.00 as buyers look to build on a firm extension above the key psychological level while AUD/USD is down 0.3% to just below 0.6800 as the downside pressure builds amid a stronger dollar.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In the UK, Liz Truss is officially named the next UK prime minister but she will have a tough task ahead of her in trying to do something about the flailing economy and the energy/cost-of-living crisis that beckons.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>She took home 81,326 (~57.4%) of the votes in the Tory leadership contest against Rishi Sunak, who had 60,399 votes (~42.6%). I outlined some thoughts with regards to the pound earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/gbpusd-stays-pressured-on-economicenergy-worries-new-pm-eyed-20220905/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. In short, it hardly would’ve mattered who became the next prime minister. The UK is still set for tough times economically and Truss‘ ideas of dealing with the energy crisis is one that will be difficult to navigate – either from execution or from being fiscally „responsible“.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar initially threatened to run away in the early stages today but has seen gains pull back with EUR/USD rising up from 0.9880 to 0.9940 on the day. The pair is still down 0.1% but is at least off fresh 20-year lows earlier with the 0.9900 barrier being breached temporarily.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.1444 before recovering to flat levels now around 1.1510. Liz Truss is almost certainly set to be named the next UK prime minister and the results of the voting should come in around 1130 GMT (roughly an hour from now). I talked a little about what that means for the pound <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/gbpusd-stays-pressured-on-economicenergy-worries-new-pm-eyed-20220905/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In any case, the dollar is still keeping steady overall and the technicals are still looking good as mentioned earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-in-control-to-start-the-new-week-20220905/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% but that comes after a turnaround on Friday where Wall Street faced heavy selling at the end. European indices are down today, facing the wrath of an energy crisis after Russia deepened concerns by shutting down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The Eurostoxx is down 1.8%, the DAX down 2.2% and CAC 40 down 1.5% currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It will be a US holiday later, so there might not be much in it but just be wary of an extension of the current undertones in the market. Another key spot to watch today besides European energy is oil prices with OPEC+ set to meet within the next hour as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Russell 2000 technical analysis with a trade idea, highlighting how to scale in a trade by casting a net of orders. It is done in a special way, so there is value in watching the entire video, which also includes a review of the recent trade ideas provided last week on ForexLive.com</p><p>The above video shows trade ideas that were provide last week:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-including-a-trade-idea-20220901/“>S&P 500 technical analysis and trade idea</a> </li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-20220831/“>Gold technical analysis and trade idea </a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/ehereum-technical-analysis-ethusd-at-1500-whats-next-20220828/“>Ethereum technical analysis and trade idea</a> </li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/natural-gas-futures-natgas-technical-analysis-and-trade-idea-short-20220829/“>Natural gas technical analysis and trade idea</a> </li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/russell-2000-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-20220831/“>Russell 2000 and trade idea</a> </li></ul><p>This week’s trade idea for the Russell, detailed in the above technical analysis video (must watch for those considering to trade it), include the following 6 buy orders, at the following prices:</p><p>Trade the Russell 2000 at your own risk. Visit ForexLive.com for additional ideas, opinions and perspectives within our technical analysis section.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due at 0430 GMT on 6 September 2022.</p><p>Earlier previews are here:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-rate-hike-coming-up-next-week-preview-of-another-50bp-hike-20220902/“ target=“_blank“>RBA rate hike coming up next week – preview of another 50bp hike</a></li></ul><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-monetary-policy-meeting-tuesday-september-6-preview-tldr-50bp-hike-coming-up-20220901/“ target=“_blank“ data-article-link=“true“ class=“article-link“>RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday September 6 – preview (TL;DR +50bp hike coming up)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/poll-of-analysts-rba-to-hike-its-cash-rate-by-50bp-on-tuesday-6-september-20220902/“ target=“_blank“ data-article-link=“true“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>Poll of analysts – RBA to hike its cash rate by 50bp on Tuesday 6 September</a></li></ul><p>Scanning through some of the comments on what Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA – one of Australia’s ‚big four‘ banks) is expecting ahead. In summary: </p><ul><li>says the RBA is broadly expected to continue to raise the cash rate</li><li>CBA’s base forecast is for a further 75 basis points of rate hikes over coming months</li><li>cash rate to peak at 2.6%, late in 2022</li><li>there is a risk of a higher terminal rate, around 2.85%</li></ul><p>CBA then has the earliest projection (of the big 4 Australian banks) of when the RBA will stop hiking and actually cut the cash rate.</p><ul><li>CBA points out its 2.6% peak forecast is the most conservative among analysts</li><li>expects the RBA to cut the cash rate by 50 basis points in H2 of 2023</li></ul><p>—</p><p>Current RBA cash rate target:</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Most traders know about the FEAR OF FAILURE, but do you know about the FEAR OF SUCCESS?

In this video, Greg Michalowski describes the FEAR OF SUCCESS that stifles traders and causes them to do things they never planned on doing.

What is it? How can you conquer it?</p><p>PS Here is the link on <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/how-to-control-the-fear-of-failure-in-your-trading-20220831/“ target=“_blank“>How to control the fear of failure in your trading</a>….</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.