<p class=“MsoNormal“>Market
picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin has
stopped falling but has still not managed to gain strength to rise, remaining
near $20K. Ethereum remains more interesting for buyers, increasing 1.6%
overnight to above $1600. Top altcoins showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of
1.3% (Dogecoin) to a rise of 2.2% (Cardano).</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Total crypto
market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 0.2% overnight to
$997bn. The Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index fell 4 points to 23 by
Wednesday and moved into „extreme fear“ status.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The upcoming
move to proof-of-stake creates a speculative component to Ethereum’s dynamics.
While in the short term, after September 6, there could be a
„sell-through,“ causing pressure on the price, in the longer term, such
a transition will strengthen interest in using Ethereum for transactions,
making them cheaper. This promises more interest in the coin, allowing it to
remain „better than the market“.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the data
analysis side, ETHUSD is trying to get back above the 50-day average, which is
an informal indicator of the medium-term trend. A consolidation above $1620,
like in July, could be a prolonged rally with possible targets at $2000-2200 in
the nearest future. The opposite is also true. A reversal down from this level
will weaken bulls, as it did in February and April, triggering a new decline
towards $1000.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>News
background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Some 5,000
BTCs, which have been in „hibernation“ for the past 7-9 years, are on
the move, said Look Into Bitcoin founder Philip Swift, citing data from the
Whale Shadows indicator. Historically, such spikes in activity have preceded
significant price declines.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A link has
been established between the 10,000 BTC, which on August 29 went in motion for
the first time since 2013, and the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange Mt.Gox, a
Telegram channel reported.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Meanwhile,
the US Federal Bureau of Investigation has advised investors to be wary of
investing in decentralised finance (DeFi) projects as they are too vulnerable
to hacking.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Iranian
authorities have approved a comprehensive law regulating cryptocurrency
transactions. In particular, imports from abroad with payment in digital assets
are allowed.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 7.5%</li><li>CPI 0.3% vs 0.3% m/m expected</li><li>Prior 0.9%</li><li>HICP 8.8% vs 8.8% y/y expected</li><li>Prior 8.5%</li><li>HICP 0.4% vs 0.4% m/m expected</li><li>Prior 0.8%</li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Swift normalisation of interest rates is an essential first phase</li><li>Must forcefully tackle persistently high inflation</li><li>Inflation will remain high for some time; markets expect peak in Q1 next year</li><li>Sees several upside risks to inflation</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This ties with the more aggressive comments from ECB policymakers since Jackson Hole over the weekend. As things stand, a 75 bps rate hike next week appears to be the most likely scenario as they are also doing their best to tee that up.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/equities-recover-some-allure-after-post-jackson-hole-drop-20220830/“>Equities recover some allure after post-Jackson Hole drop</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-couple-of-reasons-for-the-softer-dollar-today-20220830/“>A couple of reasons for the softer dollar today</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/saxony-august-cpi-73-vs-72-yy-prior-20220830/“>Saxony August CPI 7.3% vs 7.2% y/y prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bavaria-august-cpi-84-vs-80-yy-prior-20220830/“>Bavaria August CPI 8.4% vs 8.0% y/y prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/north-rhine-westphalia-august-cpi-81-vs-78-yy-prior-20220830/“>North Rhine Westphalia August CPI 8.1% vs 7.8% y/y prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/spain-august-preliminary-cpi-104-vs-109-yy-expected-20220830/“>Spain August preliminary CPI 10.4% vs 10.9% y/y expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-to-hold-20th-communist-party-congress-starting-on-16-october-20220830/“>China to hold 20th Communist Party congress starting on 16 October</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-july-mortgage-approvals-6377k-vs-6173k-expected-20220830/“>UK July mortgage approvals 63.77k vs 61.73k expected</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Markets:</p><ul><li>AUD leads, CHF lags on the day</li><li>European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.8%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 4.7 bps to 3.063%</li><li>Gold down 0.3% to $1,732.53</li><li>WTI crude down 3.0% to $94.08</li><li>Bitcoin up 1.1% to $20,408</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With month-end trading in focus, markets are reversing some of the post-Jackson Hole moves as the dollar falls, equities climb and bond yields retreat in European trading today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It could also be because the White House alluded to labour market conditions going to „cool off“ ahead of the US jobs report on Friday and we have seen how those comments affect markets previously when it comes to inflation data.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Either way, the theme is consistent with a retreat of the moves from Friday and yesterday. The dollar fell with EUR/USD climbing up from parity to 1.0055 before easing a little to 1.0020. Meanwhile, GBP/USD pushed to a high of 1.1760 before falling flat on the day to 1.1710 at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY is looking heavy as bond yields fell, with the pair easing from 138.50 to 138.05 before keeping around 138.20 currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As equities pushed higher, commodity currencies are benefiting with AUD/USD up 0.4% to 0.6930 with the high earlier coming in at 0.6955. USD/CAD was down to a low of 1.2973 before a drop in oil prices pressured the loonie and the pair is back up to flat levels at 1.3010 on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It looks like markets are going to get stuck in once again over the next few days as the dollar momentum has been quelled. That means we are likely to see some pushback on the gains from Friday but I would expect the greenback to still hold its ground before we get to the NFP release at the end of the week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The congress typically lasts for about a week, in which members of the party will gather to choose the leadership for the next five years. For some context, China passed a constitutional amendment that allowed the president to serve an unlimited number of five-year terms back in 2018. That was pretty much Xi cementing his power on the throne as he could very well serve as president for life in China.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Citi last week said that UK inflation was set to peak at 18.6% in January and now we are seeing Goldman Sachs top that estimate, as the firm argues that we may see inflation spiral to over 20% early next year in the UK.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“In a scenario where gas prices remain elevated at current levels, we would expect the price cap to increase by over 80% in January (vs 19% assumed in our baseline). This would imply headline inflation peaking at 22.4%, well above our baseline forecast of 14.8%.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The firm also says that they expect a recession to begin in Q4 this year, with the economy set to contract by 0.6% next year. As for the BOE outlook, they see policymakers raising the bank rate by 50 bps to 2.25% next month but notes that there are upside risks to its forecasts for additional 25 bps rate hikes in subsequent meetings.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>At the lows today earlier in the session, it looked like AUD/USD was poised for a firm break to the downside but now we’re seeing a recheck of the technicals as dollar gains ease slightly. The pair is still down 0.4% to 0.6865 but is at least keeping just above the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 0.6855 for the time being.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For sellers, a firm daily close below that will be much needed to establish the next downside leg in the pair. They are still in the hunt amid the prevailing trading sentiment but there’s still no breakthrough yet.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After Fed chair Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s resolve in fighting inflation, there isn’t much else for traders to work with to start the new week. The continuation of the Friday theme is the ongoing narrative and we might get just a bit more of that before markets start to reassess things again ahead of the US jobs report at the end of this week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As such, the technicals will play a vital role in dictating the pace of any moves at the moment. For now, the dollar is in command but besides a clear momentum break in cable, there are still key technical levels in play for other pairs as seen above with AUD/USD as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>I am
sure that one of the main skills that a trader should acquire is the ability to
make decisions out of Meta Position. But what is it?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
term Meta Position is widely used in NLP and means not just a “neutral” and
detached position but more like integrated one. A person takes up this position
when they grow over their polarities and starts a new level of development. Out
of this state of mind, a person can easily make fresh and adequate decisions.
However, Meta Position in the understanding of NLP and psychotherapy needs a
long way to reach, while I think that each trader can from time-to-time return
to a holistic, integrated state of mind. To make terms clear, I will later on
call this “observer state”.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>if you
are just taking your first steps in trading, then I advise you to read the
article about <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://blog.roboforex.com/blog/2020/10/22/how-to-become-a-successful-trader-10-clues/?utm_source=forexlive.com&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=rf_en_external_article&utm_content=article&utm_term=meta_position&a=ohrb“ target=“_blank“>how to become a trader</a>.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>To put
it very simply, in trading one does not only need to watch the market but also
needs to watch themselves watching the market. We do not only manage our
capital – open and close positions, decide upon adequate investing volume; but
we also manage ourselves – set up our perception, try to acquire self-control,
etc. Some are more successful in it, some are less, and some pay little
attention to it, preferring more and more optimised trading systems.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In my
opinion, if traders devoted at least 30% of their time spent on perfecting
their trading (creating and optimising trading systems) to the development of
their emotional intelligence, consciousness, and thinking skills, their work
would become much more efficient.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Why
would one return themselves to a neutral, detached state of mind from time to
time? If we do not do it, we risk trading with a clear bias toward our
positions and trading scenarios. This pushes our perception into tough
framework that will be hard to escape. And if we our work de-synchronises with
the market, such a nosedive will be even harder to stop.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
easiest way to get back to the observer state is to write down immediately all
your thoughts, feelings, and emotions into a log. Psychologists agree that
writing down a text manually, with a pen/pencil on paper if more efficient than
typing it on a PC because this way we build a better connection with our
subconscious.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Read
more on this topic in the article about <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://blog.roboforex.com/blog/2020/10/07/emotional-intelligence-what-is-it-and-why-it-is-important-for-traders/?utm_source=forexlive.com&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=rf_en_external_article&utm_content=article&utm_term=meta_position&a=ohrb“ target=“_blank“>emotional intelligence</a>.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>There
are several techniques that you can try. For example, you can get into the
observer state using the technique of spatial anchors. Try placing an extra
chair near your workspace; it will be an “observer chair”. Your task is to stop
being the trader for some time and turn into the observer. Such a simple thing
can be real help. Edward de Bono called such a change of mind-states a change
of “thinking hats”. He called certain states of mind “hats”: a white one for a
neutral position, a red one for concentration on emotions, etc.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Also,
you can return to a more centered state of mind using your breath and
concentration on certain points of your body. For each person, this will work
differently; however, try to hold your attention on a spot slightly below your
navel (closer to the middle of your body), and register what you feel. The main
task is to find a spot that will return you to a more balanced state of mind.
Holding your attention on certain body parts is used as a self-regulation
method in many martial arts, and traders may also use them.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
goal of such practices is to keep your emotions from dominating over you when
you are making decisions; dominating you neither consciously, nor
subconsciously, and let you return control to your-self. You can spend many
years in psychotherapy and psychoanalysis (increasing your emotional pain
threshold) – or you can work individually on yourself, improving your skills of
self-control and self-regulation. I think this type of practice is more
available, and even more importantly – in the process, the person takes up all
the responsibility on themselves, thus being in a more mature position in their
life. However, in certain cases, if your emotions are too intense (your pain
threshold is low), you should better address an expert.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Alternatively,
you might switch to a higher timeframe because this is the solution of
self-control issues for many traders.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>By Andrey
Goilov, Analyst at <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://roboforex.com/?utm_source=forexlive.com&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=rf_en_external_article&utm_content=article&utm_term=meta_position&a=ohrb“ target=“_blank“>RoboForex</a></p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Natural gas is one of the most watched commodity in the financial world, these days.</li><li>Some would claim that there is some news driven hype around this asset, and it may be time to look at technical hints, such as a failed breakout above resistance and the inability, so far, to capture the $10 round number</li><li>The volume profile and the EMA20 on the daily timeframe, is guiding this short trade idea, whereby the reward vs risk, makes the trade legit, IMHO</li><li>To mitigate risk, professional traders typically scale out of trades with a number of partial profit taking and exits. I show where to consider doing that according to the technical junctions shown in the below technical analysis video for natural gas futures, applicable starting 29 August, 2022.</li></ul><p>Trade natural gas at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive.com for <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis“>technical analysis</a> on a variety of financial assets.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>UPCOMING
EVENTS:</p><ul><li>Monday: Fed
Vice Chair Brainard.</li><li>Thursday: US
ISM Manufacturing PMI.</li><li>Friday: US
Labour Market Report.</li></ul><p class=“MsoNormal“>The main
event of the last week was of course Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson
Hole Symposium. It was a roughly ten-minute-long speech, short, clear, and
resolute. Inflation and price stability words were used extensively signalling
a unique focus on that topic alone and to achieve their goal as Powell said
they will “keep at it until the job is done”. He even mentioned that there will
be “softening in labour market conditions and some pain for households and
businesses”. The cost of bringing down inflation to target of course will
require, ironically, a high price. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Moreover,
Powell admitted that the bulk of inflation is demand-driven, and their tools
are meant exactly to work on the aggregate demand side, so to bring back in
balance the supply and demand, they will need to see “below trend growth”. He
also cited ex Fed Chair Paul Volcker – famous for defeating inflation of the
70s with aggressive tightening – when talking about “keeping at it”, which is
also a title of Volcker’s 2018 memoir published just before he died. In fact,
Powell said “the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely
loosening policy”, which is another reference to the 70s. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>All in all,
Powell basically “fixed” his “mistake” at the last FOMC press conference when
his words of neutral rate unleashed a party in risk assets and a loosening in
financial conditions and this could be also confirmed from his line „In
current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the
labour market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a
place to stop or pause.“</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>As a
consequence, in the forex space, the USD rallied hard. The combination of
global slowdown, aggressive Fed and the safe haven status makes the USD the
best currency for now and the trend should continue to be in its favour this
week. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This week
there will be two important reports: the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday
and the US Labour Market Report (NFP) on Friday. So, it’s most likely that we
will see USD strength into the second half of the week and then we may see some
USD weakness if the data misses big to the downside as the market may still try
some rally in risk as economic conditions worsen. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The US ISM
Manufacturing PMI is expected to come at 52.0 from the prior 52.8. Leading
indicators are pointing to further weakness in economic activity amid slowing
growth and tighter monetary conditions. The market will be more focused on the
prices paid component of course. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The US NFP
is expected to show an increase in payrolls of 285K. The unemployment rate is
expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%. The major focus will be on wages metrics
with average hourly earnings expected to show an increase of 0.4% for the M/M
figure and 5.3% for the Y/Y. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article
was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.