I’m gonna expand some thoughts from this post earlier here.At this stage, there is only one focus when it comes to the Fed and that is inflation. It is the hot topic on everyone’s lips but what exactly can the Fed really do at the moment?As inflation in the US (and across the globe) soars, everyone

Sees no sign of wage-price spiralShould focus on normalising monetary policyI’d agree that any major connections to a wage-price spiral are not evident at the moment but other issues encompassed by stagflation risks are certainly there. The big issue here though is that what exactly do central banks

At this stage, the Fed has little propensity to surprise on the rate decision today. When markets wanted to run with a 50 bps pricing, they pulled it back and boxed themselves into a 25 bps move later. It would be a big surprise if they do actually hike by 50 bps today but perhaps not entirely u

The drop in oil prices is continuing to gather pace on the day, with both WTI and Brent suffering more than 8% losses currently. The former is down to $94 levels while the latter is down to $98 levels, both tracking below $100 again.As mentioned earlier, the array of bullish factors are starting

The moves from earlier here are pretty much sticking, with equities continuing to look sluggish as well while bond yields are keeping lower – backing away from multi-year highs yesterday.EUR/USD continues to hug the 1.1000 level while USD/JPY is just off its low earlier of 117.72 to near 118.00 curr

Expects stagflation in the coming monthsCollapsing economic expectations are accompanied by extreme rise in inflation expectationsImpact is seen across all sectors of the German economyEven more so in energy-intensive sectors and the financial sectorWell, I don’t think there’s much in here that we d

Prior -8.1
Expectations -39.3 vs 10.0 expected
Prior 54.3

That’s a poor reading but it is more or less expected, though the outlook reading shows a marked deterioration in sentiment. The Russia-Ukraine situation is largely to blame, with inflation worries surging and will likely

Headlines:Kremlin: All Russian plans in Ukraine will be fulfilled and in the time frames outlinedUkraine presidential adviser says talks with Russia are ongoingUkraine on talks with Russia: Our positions are unchangedRussia: Further developments in Ukraine depends on Kyiv’s willingness to compromise

Russia has not asked China for military assistanceRussia has sufficient military resources for its military operation in UkraineSo much for the so-called peace and ceasefire. The remarks here continue to underscore that nothing has changed.

I’m putting this headline out to talk about it because it says a lot on the state of the market right now.Push this headline two weeks back and you’ll see risk trades start to get hit. Now, there’s barely even a squint. That pretty much tells you how the market is adjusting to the Russia-Ukraine sit