• NASDAQ index rises by over 1%. Dow Industrial Average average flat
• 77 Tories are standing down ahead of the general election
• Crude oil futures trade to new session highs
• Bakers Hughes oil rigs unchanged in the current week
• European indices close unchanged/down. Lower for the week.
• Japan’s Kanda: Excessive FX moves undesirable. Ready to take action if needed
• ECBs Nagel: Core and headline inflation are decelerating
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 falls to 3.5% from 3.6%
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment versus 69.1 estimate. Preliminary 67.4
• Fed Gov. Waller: US financing pressures may contribute to rise in longer run neutral rate
• Kickstart FX trading for May 24 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.
• ECBs Muller: ECB must stay cautious as inflation can surprise to the upside
• Canada retail sales for March -0.2% versus 0.0% expected
• US durable goods orders for April 0.7% versus -0.8% expected
• The EUR is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar lightly changed in mixed trading
• NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The market is slowly fading the US Dollar strength
• ECB’s Nagel: The probability of a June rate cut is increasing
• ECB’s Schnabel: A June rate cut is likely

As the week comes to a close, the CAD is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies. The CHF is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower with modest gains vs the JPY and CHF. The CAD moved higher despite lower than expected retail sales in March. However, the estimate for April was solid at 0.7% offsetting the -0.2% decline this month.

The USD moved lower helped by more favorable Michigan consumer confidence. Not only did the confidence, expectations and current situation increase, but the inflation expectations moved lower (click here for the full report). An analyst on CNBC today did warn of the reliability of the data due to political bias. GOP respondents tend to have an overly negative view of the economy and inflation vs Dem counterparts. Recall in the preliminary, the confidence fall sharply while inflation moved higher. Today’s data saw those trends reverse some of the large changes from the preliminary numbers. What do you believe?.

Also in the US today, the US Durable goods orders came in stronger than expectations at 0.7% vs -0.8%. However, this data is open to sharp revisions. The Factory Orders to be released in about 10 or so days,will show the durable goods revisions. Last month, the revisions were quite significant (from 2.6% originally reported to 0.8% final).

For the trading week, versus the major currencies the USD was higher. Below is a review of the weekly change of the major currencies vs the USD:

• EUR: + 0.17%
• JPY, .+0.82%
• GBP: -0.30%
• CHF: +0.72%
• CAD: +0.3%
• AUD: + 0.93%
• NZD unchanged

In the USD market today, yields are ending the day with mixed results:

• 2- year yield 4.940%, +1.5 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.527%, +0.2 basements
• 10 year yield 4.466%, -0.8 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.572%, -0.7 basis points

For the trading week, yields are higher with the sugar and moving up the most is the yield curve go flatter:

• 2-year yield +11.9 basis points
• 5-year yield, +8.1 base points
• 10 year yield +4.5 basis points
• 30-year yield +1.1 base points

The 2-10 years spread is at -47.9 basis points which is more negative by -.7.4 basis points

The 2-30 year spread is and -37.7 basis points which is more negative by -10.8 basis points

In other markets:

• Crude oil is trading at $77.70 up $0.83 or 1.05%. For the trading week the price of crude oil fell $-1.76 or -2.22%
• Gold fell by $-79.97 or -3.31%
• Bitcoin rose $2683
• Ethereum surged by $648 to $3738. That is a gain of nearly 21% on the back of expectations that an Ethereum ETF would be approved.

Monday is a holiday in the UK and the US. Hoping all have a great weekend.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are all closing higher on the day, however with different variances.

• The Dow Industrial Average averages closing near unchanged at 39069.58 up 0.01%.
• The S&P index is closing up 36.86 points or 0.70% at 5304.71. A close short of its record close reached on Tuesday at 5321.42.
• The Nasdaq index is closing up 184.76 points or 1.10% at 16928.79.

The small-cap Russell 2000 rebounded 21.25 points today or 1.04% at 2069.6 X.

For the trading week, the major indices are closing with mixed results:

• Dow Industrial Average average fell -2.33%
• S&P index eked out a small gain of 0.03%. The gain was good enough for its fifth consecutive positive week
• NASDAQ and the rose 1.41% for its fifth weekly gain.
• Russell 2000 fell -1.24% snapping its 4 week up string.

Looking at individual stocks this week:

• Nvidia shares rose 15.13% after earnings beat expectations and the company announced a 10:1 stock split
• Meta Platforms, +1.34%
• Amazon, -2.14%
• Alphabet, -0.60% after closing at a record level last week
• Microsoft is closing at a record level and is up 2.37%
• Apple. rose 0.05%
• Tesla rose 1.0%
• Netflix rose 4.13%
• ServiceNow fell -3.47%
• Chipotle fell -1.92%
• Micron rose 3.35%
• Salesforce -4.66%
• Crowdstrike, rose 1.60%
• Dell rose 7.13%
• Gamestop fell -14.45%
• Trump Media, fell -10.03%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD traded in a narrow range this week with a low to high range of only 70 pips . That is not a lot of movement. The good news is that next week, trader might be ready to move the pair outside of the narrow range. If so, look for momentum in the direction of the break.

To find out all about it, click on the video link above.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The rats are leaving the sinking ship.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the week moves to a close, the USDCHF is higher on the week, but did find willing sellers against a topside swing ceiling. That ceiling stalled near 0.9146-0.9156. The price has rotated lower.

However, the close support at the 61.8% of the move down from the April/May 2024 high is stalling the decline today at 0.9133.

So going into the new week, both those levels are setting up as close support and close resistance. Move below 0.9133, and I would expect the sellers to take more control with the first target near 0.9105.

If the 0.9156 is broken, that opens the door with traders thinking about a retest of the May 1 high at 0.92237. PS that high is also near other highs going back in to 2023.

Find all about it, in the video above. Be aware. Be prepared.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

That’s a bit of a late revision as markets have ruled out both June and July for quite some time now. As of today, the odds of a September move are priced at a ~58% probability with just ~36 bps of rate cuts for the year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD got a boost
yesterday from the strong US
PMIs which lifted Treasury yields and put in question the rate cut in
September with the probability falling to roughly 60%. I would argue
that the details weren’t that bad on the inflation front but overall good for
the growth side. If the market digest it as good news today, we should see the
risk-on sentiment returning which is generally negative for the greenback.

The NZD,
on the other hand, remains supported from the hawkish RBNZ decision
where the central bank pushed further out the timing for a rate cut and even
added that they considered a rate hike. If the risk-on sentiment returns, the Kiwi
will likely rise to new highs.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, On the
daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD broke above the trendline
recently following the US CPI report and consolidated around the highs. This breakout
opened the door for a rally into the 0.6217 swing level.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the buyers continue to step in around the upward trendline where they
will also have the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.
The sellers, on the other hand, will need to see the price breaking below the
trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the 0.60
handle.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we’ve been stuck in a range between the 0.6095 support and
0.6140 resistance. A breakout on either side should trigger a bigger move as
the momentum will likely pick up.

It’s unlikely that we will
see it to the upside today though given that the upper limit of the average daily range stands right at the resistance and we don’t have any catalyst that
could lead to a bigger move. Therefore, the risk for the buyers is a breakout
to the downside which could happen if the market interprets yesterday’s data
as bad news for inflation.

Upcoming
Catalysts

There are no
catalysts today so the market should trade based on the yesterday’s US PMI by
either fading the moves or print new lows.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Leading
Cryptocurrency broker, PrimeXBT, has just launched a total revamp of its brand,
website, and all-in-one platforms, as part of its vision to “democratise the
financial markets” and “make investing available to all”.

PrimeXBT’s
new look and feel debuts alongside equally substantial upgrades to the broker’s
product offering, including lower fees across 100+ CFD markets, increased
leverage on Crypto CFDs, and new fiat payment options, aiming to offer traders
more for less. This is in addition to offering traders the ability to buy
popular Cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC outright. The revamp is
accompanied by a campaign simply titled “We listen”, where the Crypto broker
reveals that a lot of the upgrades were inspired by client feedback.

Additional
upgrades to PrimeXBT’s offering include a substantially improved user
experience across its website, webtrader, and app. The revamped PrimeXBT
website now also features a ‘News’ section, so traders can get the latest news
and insights from the Crypto world, and other CFD markets. Finally, the broker
also debuted a new Partnership Program. Crypto Affiliates can earn up to $2,500
in CPA per client, and Introducing Brokers (IBs) can get up to 50% RevShare,
making PrimeXBT’s the most competitive program currently on the market.

Aleksandr
Khvoinitskii, Head of Crypto Growth for PrimeXBT had this to say:

“Our
vision at PrimeXBT has always been to provide people with easy and immediate
access to the markets, as well as the education and tools they need to succeed,
regardless of their experience. We want to give the world control over their
finances, once and for all, and we believe this revamp brings us closer to
realising that vision.”

The
Crypto broker’s core brand values are clearly displayed on the upgraded
PrimeXBT website; innovation, client-focus, empowerment, and transparency. All
four are in clear focus with this wide-reaching revamp. The addition of new
tools to the broker’s webtrader and app attest to innovation, while the
simplified user experience empowers traders of all levels to take control of
their finances. Making the language used across its website and platforms as
clear and easy-to-understand as possible shows transparency, while helping
build trust with their users. Finally, all of the changes and upgrades clearly
reflect PrimeXBT’s client-focus, incorporating user feedback to improve the
overall experience on offer.

About
PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT (https://primexbt.com) offers
the only all-in-one trading platform that allows clients to buy and sell
Cryptocurrencies, and use them to trade 100+ popular markets including Crypto
Futures, and CFDs on Crypto, Forex, Indices, Stocks, and Commodities. Since
being founded in 2018, PrimeXBT has grown exponentially to serve 1,000,000+
traders in 150+ countries all around the world. Clients enjoy the confidence of
trading with an award-winning brand, committed to security, and benefit from
round-the-clock support.

Disclaimer:
The content provided here is for informational purposes only and is not
intended as personal investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company are
complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
Virtual assets are inherently volatile and subject to significant value
fluctuations, which could result in substantial gains or losses. These products
may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider
whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can
afford the high risk of losing your money. PrimeXBT does not accept clients
from Restricted Jurisdictions as indicated in our website.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Barclays notes that: „Markets had reacted to slightly softer US data in May, as seen in outsized moves to PPI, CPI, and retail sales, with bonds rallying and stocks reaching new highs. This will likely trigger more rebalancing needs to sell dollars at month-end.“ Adding that „although the broad rally extended to other G10s, the large market cap in US equity markets has dominated hedging flows“ on the month. Taking that into consideration, their model „suggests this dollar-selling signal is consistent across G10s“.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• German economy fared better than expected in Q1
• Wage developments have been strong but we expected it to flatten

For one of the more hawkish members, the headline comment is pretty much a concession that they will cut rates in two weeks‘ time.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.