<p>Euro zone retail sales fell in August, data showed on Thursday, pointing to a weakness in consumer demand and underlining expectations of an approaching recession.</p><p>Eurozone Retail Sales YoY: -2% (Forecast -1.7%, Previous -0.9%)</p><p>The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell 0.3% month-on-month for a 2.0% year-on-year drop.Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.4% monthly fall and a 1.7% year-on-year decline.The fall in retail sales, seen as a proxy for consumer demand, underlines economists‘ expectations that the euro zone is likely to go in to a recession in the coming quarters, hit by the energy price shock created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/15131934/4-06102022-AP-EN.pdf/30dbcae1-1162-7035-4b3e-ae69a64df586″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Report</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577947731120852992?s=20&t=yYCAGKkWQUrhJQvFPGzPkQ“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Reuters</a></p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/eur/“ target=“_blank“ id=“b0427fd7-674c-4ad1-b689-22d1f8b087b0_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>EUR</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>British businesses‘ expectations for consumer price inflation in one year’s time rose to 9.5% last month, up from 8.4% in August, a Bank of England survey showed on Thursday.</p><p>Life gets increasingly difficult for the fine folks on Threadneedle Street</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The Spanish central bank said on Wednesday it estimated the country’s economy expanded a scant 0.1% in the third quarter from the previous three months due to lower private consumption as the energy shock in Europe hit households.</p><p>“The rise in energy prices, which has gradually spread to an increasing share of goods and services, has reduced the purchasing power of households,“</p><p>The central bank said it also expected growth to slow „very significantly“ in the second half of this year and the first quarter next year, which would lead to a 1.4% growth rate in 2023, down from a previously expected 2.8%.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577616941690372096?s=20&t=wITftxxSwEcgElpPFZw3Gg“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Reuters Note</a></p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The always awesome Newsquawk US Market Open: European bourses/US futures under pressure amid a firmer USD & further debt downside</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2669-us-market-open-european-boursesus-futures-under-pressure-amid-a-firmer-usd-further-debt-downside&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Note</a></p><p>Summary:</p><p>European bourses are under pressure following the strong gains seen in Tuesday’s session with fresh newsflow fairly limited heading into key US data, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%.</p><p>Stateside, ahead of those metrics which will be eyed for further clues around a ‚pivot‘, futures are under similar pressure</p><p>USD has benefited from a rebound in yields and perhaps on phycological/technical grounds, DXY nearing 111.00 to the detriment of peers</p><p>Core debt is pressured across the board with Gilts lagging despite upside from a well-received DMO outing; US yields firmer, though curve is slightly mixed</p><p>Crude benchmarks are currently dictated by broader risk and are modestly softer as such, though attention will turn to the OPEC gathering shortly</p><p>Consensus heading into OPEC is that there will be a sizeable production cut announced, the magnitude of which is unknown but source updates are becoming increasingly skewed towards the top-end of a 0.5-2.0mln range.</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include US Final PMIs, US ISM Services, ADP, OPEC, speech from Fed’s Bostic.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>US Mortgage Market Index Falls 14.2% To 218.7 In Week Ended Sept 30, Lowest Since 1997</p><p>Mortgage Applications: -14.2% (Previous -3.7%)</p><p>30-Yr Mortgage Rate: 6.75% (Previous 6.52%)</p><p>This makes for some pretty grim reading… However, in the age of ‚bad data allows the Fed to pivot sooner‘ ie Bad Data is Good For Markets, this could be read as Risk On</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>The UAE is likely to support substantial oil production cuts proposed by Saudi Arabia and Russia at Wednesday’s Opec+ meeting in a blow to US efforts to try to stop the deal.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.ft.com/content/64d35a40-5144-44f6-afca-c8b88c9d0ad5″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Article</a>“Two people familiar with the discussions ahead of the meeting said the UAE was onboard despite a last-minute effort by the US and other western powers to talk the nation out of the deal. The Gulf state is among the most influential members of Opec+ outside of Saudi Arabia and Russia.“While they respect their [the US] opinion the organisation needs to do what is in their best interests,” one Gulf Opec source said on Wednesday ahead of the meeting, where the group is expected to announce plans to reduce output by 1mn-2mn barrels a day or more.The source added that the UAE had been contacted by the US and other western powers that oppose efforts to try and boost oil prices. The White House has indicated that it believes the cuts are unnecessary and come at a dangerous time for the world economy as it grapples with an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.“Given what we know from the previous chatter, this would be a vote for nearer the 2mbpd cut than the 1m</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>With Truss currently speaking at the Tory Party conference, some would have been hoping for some movement in GBP. Alas that doesn’t appear to be the case.I’m purposely showing the GBPEUR here as I want to focus on GBP and take active USD out of the equation for a second.</p><p>Truss‘ headline-worthy quotes, thus far:Economic growth hasn’t been strong enough in the UK.</p><p>My priorities are growth, growth and growth.</p><p>We need to be internationally competitive on tax.We will realise on the promise of Brexit.</p><p>By the end of the year, all EU red tape will be consigned to history.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>ECB’s Villeroy- We Will Raise Interest Rates As Much As Necessary</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>UK’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan Will Be Published On Nov 23rd As Planned – Not Bought Forward</p><p>There was plenty of chatter (and hope) that this would be brought forward, but it seems that the retracements seen in GBP and UK Govt Bond Yields has been enough to avert the panicked/rushed release of any plan (assuming they have one!)</p><p>Hold up… maybe not. – FWIW it was GB News reporting originally – FT reporting that it will be released in October</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.

<p>A Reuters Exclusive Reveals That -The White House has ruled out any ban or curbs on natural-gas exports this winter, in a bid to help alleviate energy shortages in Europe, according to two people directly involved in the discussions.</p><p>In March, U.S. President Joe Biden committed to deliver 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) more of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has already surpassed that goal.Further White House analysis has only cemented support for ongoing exports, the sources said, although rising energy costs and a colder-than-expected winter could test Biden’s commitment. A ban has not been seriously considered, said a U.S. official.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1577252747539161088?s=20&t=5bz0cgxQUxe0XQcuWaJ06w“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Story (follow the link on the Tweet to PiQ Suite)</a></p><p>Not sure a ban was EVER a serious possibility, but, as we mentioned earlier, market pundits are looking for anything and everything to get frothy over right now.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at forexlive.com.