<ul><li>Fiscal plan of £55 billion, just under half coming from tax (the rest from spending)</li><li>The early phase will support growth, with most austerity measures coming after 2024</li><li>We will use fiscal policy to support the economy in the short-term</li><li>OBR assesses that the UK is already in recession</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Gilts aren’t too happy despite Hunt delivering what is expected for the most part. 30-year yields are up 10 bps to 3.412% and that is weighing on the pound, with cable down to fresh lows on the day of 1.1801 and testing a push below its 100-hour moving average of 1.1832.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I’ll get straight to the point with this one as I already shared some thoughts about the dollar situation <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-shows-some-fight-as-selloff-momentum-wanes-20221117/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. First off, the daily charts are starting to see the dollar put up some fight upon meeting key levels this week:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD faltering at its 200-day moving average (blue line) remains one of the key technical developments in that regard.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>AUD/USD failing to get above its 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.6767 and now dropping back below its 100-day moving average (red line) is also another sign that the dollar selling on risk optimism is waning.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Likewise, USD/CAD is also showing a modest bounce upon testing its 100-day moving average (red line) earlier in the week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But perhaps more importantly for the dollar now, is that we are also seeing a bit of a turn in the near-term charts:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Today itself, we are seeing the dollar break back against the 100-hour moving averages (red line) against the euro, yen, loonie, aussie and kiwi as seen above. That’s a sign that the near-term momentum is stalling as the bias now turns more neutral instead i.e. price action caught in between the 100 and 200-hour moving averages.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That is not to say that the selloff is over and the dollar will move higher from here but it is indicating that the dollar is showing some fight as the downside momentum stalls. This is where buyers and sellers will have to do battle in determining whether the next leg for the dollar will be one that is higher or lower (again) from here.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I already highlighted the situation earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-selloff-runs-into-a-checkpoint-20221117/“ target=“_blank“>here</a> and we are seeing more of that in European trading today, as traders start to dial back the post-CPI selloff in the dollar. As we meet key technical levels, it is now a question for markets whether or not we are done with the retracement/correction and is there still bullish appetite for the dollar moving forward?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>From a fundamental standpoint, not much has changed as the Fed continues to reaffirm that it will hike rates further even though they are also now opening a bit of a gap in the door towards slowing the pace of future rate hikes. Meanwhile, all other major central banks are either equally as dovish or even more so. So, that should keep the dollar in a good spot right?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Well, yes and no. On the one hand, the dollar is still the cleanest shirt among the dirty laundry. But considering how being long the greenback has been the consensus trade for almost the entirety of the year so far, it puts a lot of emphasis on any change in the narrative for the currency as such.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In other words, the dollar will find its previously easy gains harder to come by now but unless we do see major technical levels break one after the other, it is still in with a good shot to come back up after the latest drop in the past week. I’ll be highlighting the technicals in my next post.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Crypto Market
picture</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin
moved between $16.3K and $17.0K on Wednesday and is changing hands Thursday
morning closer to the lower bound of yesterday’s range. Some pressure on crypto
comes from more wary financial markets, where major indices are down. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The total
capitalisation of the crypto market has fallen by 1.7% to $830bn in the last 24
hours. However, the overall quieter trading pattern should be noted after the
surge in volatility in recent days.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Crypto Fear
and Greed Index was down 3 points to 20 by Thursday and remains in a state of
„extreme fear“.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the
technical analysis side, Bitcoin’s failure to cross $17.0K looks like a
corrective rebound to lock in profits before a new round of declines. This
scenario will only become main after the price
approaches local lows near $15.8K, opening the way to $12K.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Ethereum is
under more pressure, forming a sequence of declining intraday extremes. At the
current price near $1200, we can see the dam-breaking effect at levels below
$1100.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A similar
pattern is seen in the overall cryptocurrency market capitalisation chart,
where we see local reversals from lower levels.</p><p>Crypto News
background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
The Wall Street Journal, crypto lending platform BlockFi is preparing to file
for bankruptcy. The company has acknowledged significant exposure to the FTX
exchange. Last week BlockFi suspended customer withdrawals.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The collapse
of FTX affected too many companies, which could extend the crypto winter to the
end of 2023, according to cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. Many institutional
funds are stuck on FTX, causing increased distrust in the industry. Stablecoins
dominance has reached a new high of 18%.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Bitcoin will
fall heavily in November and hit „the bottom“, forecasts Pantera
Capital’s crypto fund. BTC will then rise to $36,000 ahead of the next halving
in March 2024 and continue to grow to a new record peak of $149,000.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to
the average results of a survey conducted by BDC Consulting among 53
cryptocurrency executives, bitcoin will stop the decline at $11,479. Meanwhile,
over half of top executives intend to increase their investments in
cryptocurrencies and have no plans to cut back.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>S&P 500 futures are now down 7 points, or 0.2%, with 10-year Treasury yields being up 3.6 bps to 3.730% now. That is a bit of a contrast to earlier in the session where the former was up by around 0.5% and the latter down 1 bps to 3.684%. The switch over in the mood is now seeing the dollar hold slightly higher against the major currencies bloc.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0360 levels while USD/JPY has turned a drop to 138.90 to rise up to 139.65 at the moment. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1880 but the biggest loser is AUD/USD, which is down 0.7% to 0.6690 – contesting its 100-day moving average at 0.6695 currently. I pointed out some of the technical considerations earlier in the day here:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-selloff-runs-into-a-checkpoint-20221117/“ target=“_blank“>Dollar selloff runs into a checkpoint</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -0.1%</li><li>Market index 205.2 vs 199.9 prior</li><li>Purchase index 169.7 vs 162.6 prior</li><li>Refinance index 367.1 vs 373.1 prior</li><li>30-year mortgage rate 6.90% vs 7.14% prior</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>A slight bump higher in mortgage activity in the past week, which comes as the average interest rate of the most popular home loan in the US falls back below 7% in a 24 bps dip. That said, overall conditions are still just off their worst since 1997 so this doesn’t really say a lot.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Poland blast likely caused by Ukrainian air defense missile</li><li>Investigation is ongoing, but it was not Ukraine’s fault</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This just reaffirms the earlier finding <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-officials-say-initial-findings-suggest-missile-may-have-been-fired-by-ukraine-20221116/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. In any case, I believe this should put an end to the whole geopolitical drama that started from yesterday.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The report by Reuters say that China leaders are expected to chart course for next year, prioritise stimulus over reform at the Central Economic Work Conference in December. The officials cited say that „we are not optimistic about the economic situation“ and that „downward pressures are still there even as we make some policy adjustments on COVID“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That said, they will recommend a modest growth target ranging from 4.5% to 5.5% – which is a pickup compared to this year’s growth at least. The range was one given by four of the advisers cited while one said that „we should set a growth target around 5% for next year“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Even though China leaders will meet in December to set the growth outlook, it is typically the case that any targets will not be announced until the country’s annual parliament meeting – usually in March.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>The need for continued tightening policy is evident</li><li>But case for implementing less aggressive approach is gaining ground</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The window is pretty much closing for the ECB but policymakers can surely take in a lot of comfort from the fact that a milder winter could help to ease economic pressures going into next year at least.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Interest rates might have to rise to higher levels to slow the economy</li><li>It would make sense to slow the pace of rate hikes next year to 0.25% increments</li><li>But the real challenge is on the dangers of prematurely ending rate hikes</li><li>We have a lot of work to do</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/bringing-inflation-down-without-a-recession-might-not-be-feasible-fed-official-says-11668571133″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full interview</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Taking her other remarks into context, it is not as dovish as it sounds. But what is clear is that Fed policymakers are already looking towards this and that is reason enough for markets to keep with the play from last week – especially if <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/economic-data/“ target=“_blank“ id=“ed1b62b3-5e5b-4a70-82dc-4a13e98beda8_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>economic data</a> continues to vindicate such an outlook.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.