<p>Last week’s US dollar decline was one of the largest ever. What’s driving the move and how to know it will last.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>The hopes for anyone getting any money out of FTX are dwindling after nearly $400 million was drained from the exchange late on Friday.</p><p>Crypto-watchers <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/0xfoobar/status/1591263210837250049″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>noted </a>that the money was first transferred into Tether and then further down the chain.</p><p>FTX general council said it was „investigating abnormalities with wallet movements“ and a message was pinned to the top of the FTX Telegram to say the exchange was hacked and to delete FTX apps.</p><p>A later message from FTX lawyers said they had taken precautionary steps to move digital assets to cold storage. It’s likely this was in response to thefts in order to save the remainder of funds. Customers reported balances being zeroed out.</p><p>Reuters <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/exclusive-least-1-billion-client-funds-missing-failed-crypto-firm-ftx-sources-2022-11-12/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>reports </a>that at least $1 billion of client funds is missing and that Bankman-Fried had transferred $10 billion of customer funds to Alameda Research.</p><blockquote>In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a „backdoor“ in FTX’s book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.They said the „backdoor“ allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company’s financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.</blockquote><p>Another developing problem is a reported loophole in Bahamas bankruptcy proceedings that allows the removal of domestic funds. With this, there’s an arbitrage between foreign and local money with funds being sold/drained to Bahamian accounts.</p><p>It’s not clear to me what’s truth and rumors but at this point it’s beyond FUBAR. Bitcoin is trading at $16,790 and ethereum at $1259. </p><p>On the upside, maybe that’s the end of this guy.</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“><p dir=“ltr“ lang=“en“>Kevin “Zero-Credibility” O’Leary“If there’s ever a place I can be, that I’m not gonna get in trouble, it’s gonna be at FTX.” 🤣 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>#bitcoin</a> <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/StZrZLScJn“>pic.twitter.com/StZrZLScJn</a></p>— Neil Jacobs (@NeilJacobs) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/NeilJacobs/status/1591083061944676353?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>November 11, 2022</a></blockquote>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-close-higher-on-the-day-close-out-a-stellar-week-for-the-major-indices-20221111/“ target=“_blank“>US stocks close higher on the day. Close out a stellar week for the major indices.</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-settles-the-week-at-8896-20221111/“>Crude oil settles the week at $88.96</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-index-trades-at-4000-20221111/“>S&P index trades at 4000</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/feds-collins-see-further-fed-rate-hikes-20221111/“>Feds Collins: See further Fed rate hikes</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-de-cos-the-75-basis-point-hike-does-not-imply-a-similar-move-at-the-next-meeting-20221111/“>ECB’s de Cos: The 75 basis point hike does not imply a similar move at the next meeting</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/major-european-indices-in-the-day-with-mixed-results-20221111/“>Major European indices end the day with mixed results</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-haskin-important-for-monetary-policy-to-stand-firm-against-risk-of-inflation-20221111/“>BOEs Haskel : Important for monetary policy to stand firm against risk of inflation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/univ-of-michigan-preliminary-sentiment-index-for-november-547-vs-595-last-20221111/“>Univ. of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for November 54.7 vs 59.5 last</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ftx-commences-voluntary-chapter-11-proceedings-in-us-20221111/“>FTX commences voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings in US</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/g20-leaders-to-say-russias-war-in-ukraine-has-adversely-impacted-the-global-economy-20221111/“>G20 leaders to say: Russia’s war in Ukraine has adversely impacted the global economy</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/binance-chao-full-impact-of-meltdown-at-ftx-had-yet-to-be-felt-20221111/“>Binance Chao: Full impact of meltdown at FTX had yet to be felt</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecb-de-guindos-it-could-be-the-market-may-be-underestimating-inflations-persistence-20221111/“>ECB de Guindos: It could be the market may be underestimating inflation’s persistence</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snbs-jordancurrent-monetary-policy-is-not-sufficient-least-restrictive-to-lower-inflation-20221111/“>SNBs Jordan:Current monetary policy is not sufficient least restrictive to lower inflation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-tenreyro-extremely-challenging-times-for-the-uk-and-the-global-economy-20221111/“>BOE Tenreyro: Extremely challenging times for the UK and the global economy</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-jpy-is-the-strongest-and-the-usd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20221111/“>The JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-dollar-poised-for-worst-two-day-drop-since-2009-20221111/“>ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar poised for worst two-day drop since 2009</a></li></ul><p>The USD moved lower for the 2nd consecutive day and the 5th day in the last 6 trading days.</p><p>The dollar index (DXY) is down nearly 4% this week with all the major currencies gaining vs the greenback. The decline is the largest % fall since March 2009. The better-than-expected CPI on Thursday was a catalyst for the sharp move lower especially over the last 2 trading days. </p><p>The USD this week fell:</p><ul><li>-5.46% vs the JPY</li><li>-5.37% vs the CHF</li><li>-4.07% vs the GBP</li><li>-3.97% vs the EUR</li><li>-3.65% vs the AUD</li><li>-3.19% vs the NZD</li><li>-1.67% vs the CAD</li></ul><p>From the most recent high 7 trading days ago, the DXY is down -5.96%. </p><p>For 2022, the USD is still up 11.22% but well off the gain of 19.97% at the index high on September 28. </p><p>The higher dollar has been a headwind for US earnings in 2022. That has led to expectations of slower growth in earnings going forward. However the sharp decline this week as reverse the fortunes and the expectations a bit (more on that later in the post).</p><p>Technically, this week, the DXY fell below its 100 day MA at 109.056 and below the 38.2% of the 2022 trading range, but remains above the 50% midpoint and the 200 day MA which are both at 104.86 area. A test of that area would represent an additional -1.46% decline, and would give buyers and sellers a key bias defining level going forward. Stay above and the the correction lower is within normal corrective targets. Move below, and the bias starts to tilt more in favor of the sellers (if price can stay below). </p><p>Be aware of the dual technical level near 104.86 going forward. </p><p>The move lower in the USD this week led to a sharp rise in US stocks as investor suddenly see a tailwind as result of the lower dollar.</p><p>The Nasdaq index benefited the most with a gain of 8% for the week. The S&P rose 5.9% and tested the natural resistance at 4000 before rotating lower marginally into the close. The Dow which had been leading the run to the upside advanced by 4.15% this week (<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-close-higher-on-the-day-close-out-a-stellar-week-for-the-major-indices-20221111/“ target=“_blank“>see post here</a>).</p><p>The better CPI was also a catalyst for lower rates this week. The bond market was closed today in observance of Veterans Day. For the trading week:</p><ul><li>2 year yield closed at 4.349%, -31.4 basis points</li><li>5 year yield closed at 3.96%, -37.4 basis points</li><li>10 year yield closed at 325%, -31.3 basis points</li><li>30 year yield closed at 4.04%, -21 basis points</li></ul><p>Bitcoin, and other digital currency’s, had a rough go this week as a result of the bankruptcy of the currency exchange FTX. More distrust entered the digital currency space which may not be solved without increased regulation</p><p>For the trading week:</p><ul><li>Bitcoin is trading down -20%</li><li>Ethereum is down -23.8%</li><li>Dogecoin is down -28.2%</li><li>The digital token FTT for FTX is trading down -89.8%</li></ul><p>Thank you for your support this week. Hope you have a safe and fun filled weekend.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>The major US stock indices are ending the day with gains that capped off a strong week.</p><p>The final numbers are showing:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average rose 33.07 points or 0.10% at 33748.64 </li><li>S&P index rose 36.61 points or 0.93% at 3992.94</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 209.19 points or 1.88% at 11323.34</li><li>Russell 2000 rose 14.81 points or 0.79% at 1882.73</li></ul><p>for the trading week:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average rose 4.15%</li><li>S&P index rose 5.9%</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 8.10%</li><li>Russell 2000 rose 4.60%</li><li>Ark Innovation fund increased by a oversized 14.62%</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>The price of WTI <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/c/crude-oil/“ target=“_blank“ id=“e1f1b115-23d2-48c8-98c8-24024dada457_2″ class=“terms__main-term“>crude oil</a> settles at $88.96. That was up $2.49 or 2.88% on the day. </p><p>For the trading week, the price a week closed on Friday at $92.44. The price is down -3.75% on the week and was the first decline after two weeks of gains of 3.7% and 4.71% over those weeks. </p><p>In other news today, the Baker Hughes </p><ul><li>rig count rose by 9 to a total of 779. </li><li>The oil rigs increased by 9 to 622. </li><li>Natural gas was unchanged at 155</li></ul><p>Fundamentally, the price of oil was supported by hopes of further easing of Covid restrictions in China.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>The S&P index has reached an intraday high at 4000.08. That is the first trade at that level since September 13. THe next target is the 61.8% of the move down from the August high at 4006.81. Above that and the key 200 day MA at 4081.08 will be eyed.</p><p>For the trading week, the S&P is up 6.0% which is the largest gain since 6.45% during the week of June 21. The S&P was up 6.58% during the week of May 23, and 6.16% during the week of March 14. .</p><p>The Dow industrial average is trading up around 30 points or 0.09%. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/n/nasdaq/“ target=“_blank“ id=“73ea5227-7971-4d75-a878-f20ede81c27e_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>NASDAQ</a> index is leading the way with a 222 point rise or 2.01% at 11338.71.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>Coinbase global says it will write off investment its ventures arm made in FTX. </p><ul><li>Coinbase will participate in FTX bankruptcy proceedings to seek a claim hundred $15 million in deposits at the exchange</li><li>Exposure to FTX is not material to its balance sheet </li></ul><p>Coinbase is also saying that FTX has ceased processing withdrawals around midday Friday.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The latest notes out of BofA says that we are now in the transition period from the 2022 bear narrative, that was encapsulated by „inflation shock, rates shock, recession shock“, and moving on to the 2023 bull narrative, which is „peak CPI, peak Fed, peak yields, and peak US dollar“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In other words, we are heading into the sunset days of the tightening cycle by major central banks – at least in terms of what is being priced in. That’s a massive endorsement for risk trades, at least on paper.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But I think a question that needs to be addressed is what happens if inflation doesn’t just peak and fall, but instead it peaks and just plateaus at a high level? The market’s appetite for greed hinges a lot on the relief that inflation isn’t getting any worse but is it enough to sustain a more optimistic outlook if we don’t see a material fall in consumer prices back towards 2%?</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pair was already looking vulnerable but we are starting to see things pick up now with a break below 140.00 and that marks a big psychological blow for buyers, who have held on to a more bullish outlook in the pair for the longest time.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This is the first time since the start of September that the pair has traded below 140.00 and the technical picture doesn’t look pretty whatsoever:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>A fall back towards 135.00 is easily on the cards and we might even course correct towards the 200-day moving average next (blue line), considering how long it has been since the last meaningful technical correction in the pair.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Does not know if inflation has reached a turning point to move lower</li><li>Fed has made clear that it will continue to raise rates</li><li>Future monetary policy path up to the Fed</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With the headline remark, it seems like only Fed speakers will be the ones to be able to pour cold water on this relief rally. Yellen also adds that she will be meeting with PBOC governor, Yi Gang, on the sidelines at the G20 Summit in Bali to discuss on economic developments.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.