<p>The Dow industrial average is now down over 300 points or -0.88% at 33697.21. That now takes the index below the closing level from last Friday. The level closed at 33761.06. The current price is at 33697.21. The price is also back below its 200 day moving average at 33858.74.</p><p>The biggest losers today in the Dow industrial average is Boeing (-3.28%), J.P. Morgan (-2.53%), and salesforce (-2.38%)</p><p>the S&P index is down -56.73 points or-1.33% at 4226. At the highs this week, this index found sellers just ahead of its 200 day MA currently at 4320.86. The index is retesting its 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022 high in January at 4227.75…</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>WTI crude oil futures are settling at $90.44. Last Friday, the closing level came in at $91.87. For the week the decline, the price fell $1.43 were -1.5%.</p><p>Technically the price is settling near its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart below) at $90.12. The high price stalled near the 38.2% retracement at $91.87. The low price stalled near the 100 hour moving average at $88.59.</p><p>Next week those levels will all be defining levels.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is all lining up for the dollar right now as the currency pushes to fresh highs on the day and is seeking to extend gains further ahead of the weekend. Let’s recap how markets are playing out today to see why:</p><ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-bond-market-starts-to-make-a-move-20220819/“ target=“_blank“>The bond market is finally waking up</a>, 10-year Treasury yields above its 100-day moving average</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/stocks-bleed-lower-in-european-morning-trade-20220819/“ target=“_blank“>Stocks are sliding</a>, risk trades losing ground i.e. risk aversion taking hold</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Dollar technicals look favourable (vs <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-extends-gains-as-the-tail-is-wagging-the-dog-20220819/“ target=“_blank“>JPY</a>, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-narrow-range-on-the-day-but-technical-bias-points-lower-20220819/“ target=“_blank“>EUR</a>, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/gbpusd-poised-for-a-retest-of-the-years-lows-20220819/“ target=“_blank“>GBP</a>)</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-key-trigger-for-the-next-leg-higher-in-the-dollar-20220819/“ target=“_blank“>China sought to weaken the yuan</a>, providing an added tailwind for the next leg higher</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s tough to fight the momentum when everything is moving in the direction that is supporting the greenback. As risk trades lose further ground on the session, we’re now even seeing AUD/USD fall by nearly 0.5% to below 0.6900:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Notably, price is sliding past the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 0.6909 and looks poised to move towards the 5 August low at 0.6869 next.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/things-are-all-lining-up-for-the-dollar-towards-the-end-of-the-week-20220819/“>Things are all lining up for the dollar towards the end of the week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-bond-market-starts-to-make-a-move-20220819/“>The bond market starts to make a move</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/stocks-bleed-lower-in-european-morning-trade-20220819/“>Stocks bleed lower in European morning trade</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-july-ppi-53-vs-06-mm-expected-20220819/“>Germany July PPI +5.3% vs +0.6% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-july-retail-sales-03-vs-02-mm-expected-20220819/“>UK July retail sales +0.3% vs -0.2% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-june-current-account-balance-42-billion-vs-45-billion-prior-20220819/“>Eurozone June current account balance €4.2 billion vs -€4.5 billion prior</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Markets:</p><ul><li>USD and CHF lead, NZD lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.9%</li><li>US 10-year yields up 6.3 bps to 2.943%</li><li>Gold down 0.4% to $1,752.08</li><li>WTI crude down 2.2% to $88.50</li><li>Bitcoin down 8.4% to $21,445</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar refused to wait around in trading yesterday and with its push higher, it is triggering a broader reaction in markets today. The tail is wagging the dog as the dollar jump also sees Treasury yields push higher, vindicating the advance in USD/JPY firmly above 135.00 yesterday. The pair has extended gains to today and is now trading above 137.00 as things fall into place for the greenback.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>10-year Treasury yields are finally ticking above its 100-day moving average after having furiously been kept below that for several weeks now. The mood is helped as inflation worries return after having seen a record jump in German producer prices earlier in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, equities are looking fragile as European indices slumped while US futures extended its early decline into a heavier drop at the moment ahead of North America trading.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With China also seeking to weaken the yuan, the dollar is in a good spot against the major currencies bloc. EUR/USD extended its fall from 1.0070 to 1.0050 while GBP/USD slumped heavily from 1.1910 to 1.1820 on the session. As risk trades falter, USD/CAD pulled higher from 1.2960 to 1.3000 and AUD/USD fell from 0.6915 to 0.6880 with the dollar staying firm across the board.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The technicals are also favouring the greenback at the moment and barring a shift in broader markets, the dollar looks poised to head into the weekend as king of the hill.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pair is down 0.4% on the day to 1.1878 at the moment and is poised for a third straight day of declines. The bounce higher after the US CPI data last week failed to breach the key trendline resistance (white line) and it has been one-way traffic since as the dollar recovers strongly through to this week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>On the pound side of the equation, we saw UK GDP suffer a contraction in Q2 and annual consumer inflation hitting a 40-year high above 10% in the past week. Retail sales data was slightly better today but it isn’t as much comfort as the economic outlook remains rather dire to say the least.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The BOE has a fine balancing act to do and odds are, if the data worsens further in the months ahead, there is every chance we could see the door slowly being shut for the central bank to tighten policy further.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Considering that both central banks already gave a formal message that we are in the second-half of the tightening cycle, the trade for cable is very much a case of who folds first? The Fed or the BOE? In this instance, it looks very much like the latter.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As such, the path of least resistance is for the pair to move lower – all else being equal. Now, with the dollar picking up steam across the board, the next test is 1.1800 and the year’s low at 1.1759.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Despite the narrow range on the day, there is a lot to digest when it comes to looking at the EUR/USD chart at the moment. The most glaring detail is the break back below 1.0100 after the breakout above the range of 1.0100 to 1.0283 failed at the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 1.0361 highlighted earlier in the week <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-lower-on-firmer-dollar-failed-breakout-bodes-ill-for-the-euro-20220816/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With the dollar seen firmer across the board and also making headway against the likes of the yen and pound, there is a strong argument for EUR/USD to head back towards parity in the sessions ahead.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>So far, there is a lack of appetite for a strong move today but we’ll see if there is any major extension to follow once US traders come into the fray. It will be important to see how price action develops from here as I fear another retest of parity will not be one where the euro fares too well this time around.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The outlook for the euro area remains bleak as recession risks are on the rise and today’s record rise in German producer prices exemplifies the nature of which surging prices is taking a toll on the region. As much as euro area governments are playing down the risks, soarin energy prices ahead of winter is going to lead to a dark period for businesses and consumers.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>European indices are deepening losses across the board with US futures also slumping more heavily now on the day. S&P 500 futures are down 35 points, or 0.8%, as the drop extends:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, the DAX is down 0.9%, Eurostoxx down 0.9%, and CAC 40 down 0.7% currently. Regional indices aren’t able to take much comfort after having seen German producer prices post a record increase in July <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-july-ppi-53-vs-06-mm-expected-20220819/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But a firmer dollar and higher yields are also weighing on sentiment, but one can also argue that it is all tied together. Looking at US equities in particular, the rejection of the S&P 500 at the 200-day moving average seems to be the momentum breaker this week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/still-no-spark-yet-for-treasuries-this-week-20220818/“>Still no spark yet for Treasuries this week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-gains-ease-up-amid-some-pushing-and-pulling-20220818/“>Dollar gains ease up amid some pushing and pulling</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-july-final-cpi-89-vs-89-yy-prelim-20220818/“>Eurozone July final CPI +8.9% vs +8.9% y/y prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-plans-to-lower-sales-tax-on-gas-to-7-20220818/“>Germany plans to lower sales tax on gas to 7%</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-schnabel-the-outlook-for-the-ecb-has-not-changed-20220818/“>ECB’s Schnabel: The outlook for the ECB has not changed</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-to-aim-for-unwinding-full-stock-of-bond-purchases-at-the-end-of-2023-or-early-2024-20220818/“>BOE to aim for unwinding full stock of bond purchases at the end of 2023 or early 2024</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>AUD leads, EUR lags on the day</li><li>European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 2.865%</li><li>Gold up 0.6% to $1,770.83</li><li>WTI crude up 1.2% to $89.20</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It was a quiet session that featured some indecisiveness among traders and investors, after having failed to gather any real conviction following the US retail sales and FOMC meeting minutes from yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar firmed slightly early on while equities were a touch more defensive but now we’re seeing things run back the other way ahead of North America trading instead.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There weren’t any majro catalysts for the moves as broader markets are still finding it tough to settle on a firm narrative, with Treasuries also not really signaling at a change in the outlook over the past two weeks.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD fell from 1.0170 to 1.0147 but remains caught in a host of large expiries around current spot levels today. GBP/USD took a bit of a drop from 1.2050 to 1.1995 before moving back up to 1.2050-60 levels now. Meanwhile, USD/JPY slipped from 135.40 to 134.80 after the attempt to keep above 135.00 looks to be exhausted amid a lack of poise in bond yields.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The aussie and kiwi also saw notable turnarounds against the dollar with AUD/USD dropping from 0.6940 to 0.6900 before climbing back up to 0.6970. That said, price is still keeping below 0.7000 and that is keeping sellers in control for the most part.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The switch came as equities turned a more sluggish session into one which is lightly more positive but even as US futures are pointing higher, the retreat yesterday is a note of caution with the S&P 500 having backed away from a test of its 200-day moving average. That will be a key level to watch in case dip buyers do try and step in towards the end of the week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The push and pull feel in broader markets pretty much is the story so far today, as traders and investors lack any real conviction after not getting any sparks from the US retail sales and FOMC meeting minutes yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>European stocks were little changed early on before slipping a little but are now trading higher as US futures also climb a little. The DAX is up 0.9% and the news from Germany <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-plans-to-lower-sales-tax-on-gas-to-7-20220818/“ target=“_blank“>here</a> is very much welcome for consumers. Elsewhere, the Eurostoxx is up 0.4% and CAC 40 up 0.5% on the day currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes as US futures also tick a little higher, with S&P 500 futures up 6 points now, or 0.15%, after having been down by 18 points earlier in the session. This is keeping major currencies on their toes as well with AUD/USD recovering from 0.6900 to 0.6950 and GBP/USD paring a decline from 1.1995 to 1.2055 at the moment as the dollar gives some back.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But looking ahead, Wall Street will have a challenge up their sleeves with the 200-day moving average a key focus for the S&P 500:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This is being announced by German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, as the government is trying to reduce the burden for consumers. For some context, the tax otherwise would be 19% and the government is hoping that companies will pass on the VAT cut in full to consumers as such.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The move above comes after Brussels rejected Germany’s request for an exemption on its new gas price levy – which was proposed as a measure by the German government in order to help Uniper and other gas importers cope with soaring prices due to reduced Russian export flows.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.