The reading is the lowest in nearly 9½ years – lowest since January 2013 – as concerns about inflation weighed on sentiment. That said, demand for labour remains solid as businesses continue to express intent to expand their operations. 34% of business owners said that inflation was their biggest single problem, an increase of six points from May and the highest level since Q4 1980.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
I outlined some thoughts earlier here and with a break of parity, the euro could come under further pressure against the dollar towards 0.95 to 0.96 potentially. For now, it’s all about clearing parity and getting used to seeing the pair trade in and around the 1.00 mark.
But considering the market mood and sentiment, it’s tough to see this as being where the euro makes a grand stand against the dollar. The drop to parity today is the first since December 2002.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Stand united to cooperate in case of complete disruption of gas supplies, which may occur in upcoming weeks
Finalize agreement on solidarity measures to safeguard security of supply between our countries ahead of winter season
This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.
„It is desirable that traders seek to minimise imports of Russian gas and diversify the contracts they may hold,“ she told a news briefing.
Spain’s energy minister went on to say that Spain is working on a gas contingency plan for the winter, although it is in a better situation than other EU neighbours.
It must be noted that due in part to Spain’s connections to Africa, Russian LNG only accounted for 11.9% of Spanish gas imports in May off 2022.
This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.
Trade Idea (Long EURUSD) with the Following Three Buy Orders for EURUSD:
Average entry price for the EURUSD Long, conditional to all 3 buy orders being filled: 0.9908
Stop Loss: EURUSD at 0.97943 (4.25% higher than average entry price of the EURUSD Long position)
Take Profit: EURUSD at 1.03287 (1.15% lower than average entry price of the EURUSD Long position)
Reward vs Risk Ratio: 3.7 (reward is 3.7 times the risk)
EURUSD Technical Analysis with Price Chart
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This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
US energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, says that:
„We want to put on the table the option of joining a buyers‘ group that will heave greater market power to be able to lower the price, and therefore lower the price of Russian oil and lower the profits to Putin.“
In case you missed it, there were discussions by the US and its allies before this on capping Russian oil at around $40 to $60.
Well, the only thing I can say is that good luck getting India on board. Japan is also somewhat heavily reliant on Russian energy imports but they may be more easily swayed. As for India (and China), I just don’t see it happening.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
UPCOMING
EVENTS:
Wednesday:
RBNZ Policy Announcement, BoC Policy Announcement, US CPI.
Friday: US
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey.
The market
focus this week will be entirely on the US CPI data on Wednesday. At the moment
the market expects a 75 bps hike at the July FOMC meeting with some little
pricing of 100 bps. A surprisingly hot CPI will certainly cause pain in the
markets and raise the pricing on the more aggressive 100 bps hike. We may even
see a positioning into the report. But let’s see first the other notable events
coming this week…
On Wednesday
the RBNZ is expected to hike the cash rate by 50 bps bringing it to 2.50%. The
RBNZ already stated that the monetary conditions will need to act as a
constraint on demand and the risk of doing too little too late is worse than
too much too soon (something the Fed is pursuing as well). Finally, the Bank of
Canada is expected to hike rates by 75 bps bringing the rate to 2.25% after the
hot CPI data cemented the more aggressive path.
The US CPI
data is expected to rise 8.7% for the Y/Y figure and 1.0% for the M/M reading
due to high energy and food prices. The Core measure is expected to cool a bit
with 5.7% Y/Y reading and 0.5% for the M/M one. As we saw in the previous
month, the Fed is responding aggressively to any upside surprise in inflation data,
and this means that another hot inflation report will put even more pressure on
them and kick a debate between 75 and 100 bps at the next meeting and no longer
the 50/75 as we’ve been seeing till now. The US Dollar would certainly
appreciate even more in case of an upside surprise.
Finally on
Friday we will get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The
report is expected to show another dip in consumer sentiment to 49.0 making a
new record low for the series. Such an awful consumer sentiment is of course
really bad for the economy as a whole. The market will focus especially on the
long run inflation expectations as an uptick in the previous report acted as an
extra pressure for the Fed to go for the more aggressive 75 bps hike as Fed
Chair Powell stated himself.
In the
bigger picture, we are clearly in a recessionary cycle coupled this time with a
high inflation that forces the Fed to focus solely on tightening monetary
conditions and disregard economic growth. As of now, we have an equities bear
market, an inverted yield curve, big losses in commodities sensitive to global
growth like copper, a very strong US Dollar, high inflation, an aggressive
tightening by the Fed, consumer sentiment at record low and leading components
in the PMIs in contractionary territory. If this doesn’t scream to you that
we’re in a recession or heading into one, then you must be a very optimistic
person.
If we
weren’t coming off of such a high inflation rate but say a 3% one, then we most
probably would have had the Fed already cutting interest rates. But not this
time. Every cycle is the same except for what’s different. Keep in mind
the bigger picture and avoid being caught in the noise.
This article
was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
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This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
China is in a good position to add some stimulus as inflation runs lower than most parts of the world. That’s exactly what reports suggest they do as 2023 infrastructure spending may be pulled forward.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
The Prime Minister’s home was set on fire.
The speaker of the legislature is trying to pull together an all-party government to stabilize the situation. He said President Rajapakse will step down on July 13.
The officials were moved to safe locations in anticipation of today’s protests, which were a sharp escalation of recent demonstrations. The catalyst has been a fuel shortage in the country.
The heavily-indebted country of 22 million has more than $15 billion in dollar-denominated debt and $45 billion overall. It has failed to make payments for oil and gasoline deliveries and that caused severe rationing from the government.
High commodity prices, rising rates and the strong US dollar are a toxic mix for heavily-indebted countries, especially those with large current account deficits. Here’s a ranking of some of the most-vulnerable spots:
Aside from the potential turmoil in these countries, it’s an open question whether similar crisis‘ trigger a broader global growth slowdown. The names at the top of this list are insignificant for global demand but as you go down the list, names like Pakistan, Egypt and Brazil stand out. The one I think that’s inevitably heading towards trouble is Turkey because of its chaotic monetary policy and large current account deficit. Time will tell.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.