The tests are believed to be carried out between 3 and 5 May, which will also include Beijing’s Chaoyang district – which had earlier said it would conduct two rounds of mass testing on 1 and 3 May.At this point, one has to wonder if China will ever draw the line on the economic costs of its current ‚zero COVID‘ policy. But considering its sense of pride and ego, it may not be until when the infection becomes much more endemic to the global audience. Otherwise, it would look as though that Xi’s strategy has failed and that is something which he surely will not allow.For markets, that just means more disruptions to supply chains in general and the reverberations of higher costs in terms of raw materials and shipping will continue to play out for a more prolonged period.

Bloomberg (gated) have the report, citing ‚people familiar with the matter‘:
European Union is set to propose a ban on Russian oil by the end of the year, with restrictions on imports introduced gradually until thenEU also considering treating oil shipped via tankers and through pipelines differently, with the latter being easier to sanction The EU is the single largest consumer of crude and fuel from Russia.

Bloomberg also cite the unnamed sources as saying:The EU will also push for more banks from Russia and Belarus to be cut off from the international payment system SWIFT, including Sberbank
More at that link above. 

SUN:
Chinese Labour Day Holiday (May 1-4).
MON:
German Industrial Orders (Mar) and Retail Sales (Mar); EZ, and US Final
Manufacturing PMIs (Apr); US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr); UK Bank Holiday;
Japanese Holiday.
TUE: RBA
Announcement; South Korean CPI; German Unemployment (Apr); EZ Producer
Prices (Mar); US Durable Goods (Mar); UK Final Manufacturing PMI (Apr);
New Zealand Jobs Report; Eurogroup Meeting; Japanese Holiday.
WED: FOMC
Announcement; US Refunding; BCB Announcement; German Trade Balance (Mar);
EZ, UK, and US Final Services and Composite PMIs (Apr); EZ Retail Sales
(Mar), US ADP National Employment (Apr); Canadian Trade Balance (Mar); ISM
Services PMI (Apr); OPEC JTC; Japanese Holiday.
THU: BoE
Announcement; Norges Bank Announcement; NPB Announcement; CNB
Announcement; JMMC/OPEC+ Meeting; Australian Trade Balance (Mar); Chinese
Caixin PMI Services PMI (Apr); Swiss CPI (Apr).
FRI:
German Industrial Orders (Mar) and Retail Sales (Mar); EZ, UK, and US
Final Manufacturing PMIs (Apr); US Jobs Report; Canadian Jobs Report.

NOTE: Previews are listed in day-order

US ISM manufacturing PMI (Mon), ISM services PMI (Wed): The Manufacturing
ISM is expected to rise to 58.0 in April from 57.1 in March. Credit Suisse,
which is against the consensus view, looks for a decline to 56.5. The bank
writes that although the S&P Global PMIs have improved recently, many
regional surveys within the US have been turning lower this year. Credit Suisse
adds that the Production and New Orders sub-indices have been underperforming,
while it argues that the headline itself has been supported by the ongoing
supply chain disruptions, which has underpinned the Supplier Deliveries
sub-index; „We expect this trend to continue as COVID shutdowns in China
and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threaten new global supply disruptions,“
CS writes; it also expects to see ongoing weakness in manufacturing surveys in
the months ahead. Meanwhile, the services gauge is likely to pick-up to 59.0
from 58.3, according to analyst forecasts.

RBA announcement (Tue): The RBA will decide on rates next week in what is
widely viewed as a live meeting with swaps traders fully pricing in a 15bps
increase for the Cash Rate Target to 0.25% from the current record low of
0.10%, while swap markets also suggested a 25% chance of a greater 40bps move.
The expectation for a sooner lift-off was spurred after the mostly firmer than
expected inflation data for Q1 which showed headline annual inflation at 5.1%
vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 3.5%) which is the fastest pace of increase in more than
two decades and the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation also surpassed the
central bank’s 2-3% target at 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 2.6%). This prompted an
adjustment of rate hike expectations with JPMorgan anticipating the RBA to hike
by 15bps in May and Westpac also brought forward its rate hike call in which it
now expects a 15bps increase at next week’s meeting followed by a 25bps move in
June from a previous forecast of a 40bps increase in June. The RBA have opened
the door for a sooner hike after having dropped its reference to the Board
being „patient“ from the statement at the last meeting and noted that
developments have brought forward the likely timing of first rate hike, while
it also stated in the recent semi-annual Financial Stability Review that it is
important borrowers are prepared for an increase to interest rates. Conversely,
others are not convinced of a move at the upcoming meeting with Goldman Sachs
and Capital Economics in the June lift-off camp, while arguments for a pause
include the RBA’s previous desire to wait for data over the coming months and
with Australians set to go to the polls for the election on May 21st.

New Zealand jobs report (Tue): There are currently no market expectations for
the Kiwi Labour Force Report, but the release will not likely sway the course
of RBNZ monetary policy, with a 100% chance of a 25bps priced in alongside an
above-80% chance of a 50bps hike. Analysts at Westpac nonetheless expect the
employment change of +0.2% and the unemployment rate to decline to 3.0% from
3.2%. “Labour market indicators point to a further tightening in the market in
recent months, albeit with some disruptions from the Omicron wave. The bank
acknowledges its forecast is a modest upside surprise to the RBNZ’s view.

FOMC announcement (Wed): The FOMC is expected to lift rates by a 50bps
increment, taking the Federal Funds Rate target to 0.75-1.00%. Its March
statement laid the groundwork for such a move (“anticipates that ongoing
increases in the target range will be appropriate” – a line which is expected
to be stated again in May). Additionally, remarks from officials before they entered
the pre-meeting quiet period framed the Fed’s task as firmly in the
inflation-fighting sphere, with Chair Powell stating that it was “absolutely
essential” to restore price stability. Officials have also spoken about
“expeditiously” getting rates back to neutral (judged to be around 2.4%,
according to the Fed’s recent forecasts), which has built expectations for a
front-loaded rate cycle. Accordingly, money markets are now pricing 50bps rate
hikes at the May, June and July FOMC meetings; markets have also priced in the
Federal Funds Rate target rising to 2.50-2.75% by the end of this year (vs the
Fed’s March forecasts, which pencilled in rates rising to 1.75-2.00% by
end-2022). Elsewhere, the central bank may also announce the beginning of its
balance sheet runoff. The minutes from the March meeting flagged that the
process of quantitative tightening will begin at an upcoming meeting, while
there was also a discussion about the cap amounts that the Fed will allow to
roll-off the balance sheet on a monthly basis – the minutes suggested USD 60bln
for Treasuries and USD 35bln for MBS holdings. Some desks think that these caps
will be hit early, but the rising rate environment and lower mortgages
refinancing could mean that only around USD 20bln or so rolls off on an average
month. And given that the Fed wants its balance sheet to eventually be
comprised primarily of Treasuries, traders will be paying attention to see any
timelines of when the Fed is prepared to begin outright selling of its mortgage
holdings to lower the size of the overall balance sheet. Additionally, in light
of advanced Q1 GDP data this week, which showed a contraction of 1.4%, the
Chair will likely be asked the extent to which the Fed is comfortable
tightening policy in the face of slowing growth, and if it would be prepared to
engineer a recession to manage price pressures.

US quarterly refunding announcement (Wed): The quarterly
refunding announcement (08:30EDT/13:30BST) will be made hours before the FOMC
rate decision (14:00EDT/19:00BST), where the central bank is expected to lift
rates by 50bps, but crucially, many also expect it will announce the beginning
of quantitative tightening. UBS argues that the Fed will signal QT, while the
Treasury will outline how it will be financed. The key question for fixed
income traders is whether the Treasury continues to cut coupon issuance in the
face of the buying gap from the Fed. “Treasury’s decision will only be on the
level of coupon issuance for the next three months,” UBS writes, “however, it will
probably also signal how it plans to implement its financing over the coming
quarters when QT will be in full swing.” Since the February refunding
announcement, where it cut auction sizes and signalled further cuts ahead, UBS
notes that the fiscal outlook has improved after a strong tax season;
“therefore, we think that Treasury will go ahead with cutting nominal auction
sizes for the 7y, 10y, 20y, 30y, and FRN,” adding that the cuts for the 7yr and
20yr sectors are likely to be more aggressive to address supply and demand
imbalances. „We think that these additional cuts to nominals will lead to
a continued decline in the amount of nominal duration that the private sector
absorbs this year,“ the bank says, „we expect the supply of nominal
duration to the private sector to drop by 29% in 2022 Y/Y, and another 14% in
2023 due to a decline in the total net issuance of fixed-coupon nominals to the
private sector from USD 1.7trln in 2021 to USD 1.5trln in 2022, and cut further
to USD 1.1trln in 2023.“ Meanwhile, UBS sees the net issuance of TIPS to
the private sector increasing from USD -17bln in 2022 to USD +61bln in 2023,
and USD +75bln in 2023.

BoE announcement (THU): The BoE is expected to continue its hiking cycle
at the upcoming meeting by delivering another 25bps hike, taking the Base Rate
to 1.0%. 33/44 surveyed analysts expect a 25bps hike, 1 expects a 50bps hike
and 10 look for no change. In terms of market pricing, 27bps of tightening is
priced in for the upcoming meeting with an additional five hikes priced in by
the end of the year. The previous decision was subject to dovish dissent from
Cunliffe who voted for a pause in the hiking cycle on account of concerns over
the current squeeze on real household incomes. This time around, the vote split
is expected to remain 8-1 with no other MPC members set to join Cunliffe in the
pause camp given that the consensus amongst policymakers is set to prompt just
a 25bps hike compared to the 50bps that the Fed is likely to proceed with next
week. The meeting comes amidst the backdrop of rampant inflation in the UK with
the Y/Y CPI metric rising to 7.0% in March from 6.2% ahead of the inclusion of
the OFGEM price cap hike in April. Furthermore, the CBI reports that
manufacturers are raising prices at the fastest rate in over 40 years to cover
rising raw material and energy input costs. The labour market remains hot with
the unemployment rate at multi-decade lows whilst wage growth remains elevated.
Of concern, GDP metrics for Feb saw a cooling in the pace of Q/Q growth to 0.1%
vs. the 0.8% observed in January whilst March’s retail sales report was
particularly soft with ING noting that “it’s getting increasingly difficult to
see how UK consumer spending avoids a downturn over coming months”. With this
in mind, Governor Bailey has cautioned that the BoE is walking a tightrope
between tackling inflation and avoiding a recession. With a rate hike a near
given for the Bank, focus will turn towards signalling for the coming months.
In the previous statement, the Bank tweaked guidance so that it reads “modest
tightening in monetary policy may be appropriate in the coming months” as
opposed to the February statement which noted it is “likely to be”. Any further
softening of forward guidance on rates will be of note given how aggressive
market pricing remains. SGH Macro suggests that the Bank is on the precipice of
what it describes as “a ‘second phase’ of tightening, characterized by less
frequent moves over a longer time horizon, with data dictating
meeting-to-meeting outcomes”. Elsewhere, current guidance from the BoE suggests
that it will actively start selling Gilts when the Bank Rate hits 1%. However,
policymakers have stated that selling Gilts when the Bank Rate hits 1% will not
be an automatic process. ING thinks now is not the best time to sell bonds and
therefore will hold off and instead opt to lay out details of how the policy
could work when implemented. In the accompanying MPR, inflation and growth
forecasts are set to be revised higher and lower respectively.

Norges Bank announcement (Thu): While the consensus continues to expect the
Norges Bank will leave rates unchanged at 0.75%, a surprising hawkish pivot by
its local peer, the Riksbank, has resulted in some analysts revising their own
expectations towards a more hawkish outturn. That said, the meeting is one of
the so-called intermediate confabs, so we will not get any updated economic
projections or rate path, and according to the Scandi bank SEB, we should still
be expecting an unchanged rate decision. “While recent developments have been
mixed, there are no substantial deviations from the Bank’s projections that
would support a policy shift,” it writes, and SEB thinks the central bank will
reiterate its guidance that “the policy rate will most likely be raised further
in June”, and SEB doesn’t even expect any fresh policy signals. “The market’s
hiking expectations are a tad more aggressive than implied by the rate path,
but the upcoming rate announcement should not result in any large market
moves,” it writes.

JMMC/OPEC+ (Thu): OPEC+ producers next week are expected to stick to their output plans,
which would see the June quota upped by 432k BPD under the agreement, also
backed by recent sources. The meeting comes against the backdrop of the ongoing
Russia-Ukraine war, with Western nations attempting to phase out their
dependence on Russian energy. Meanwhile, China’s COVID situation remains a
concern due to the government’s zero-COVID policy – which has dealt a blow to
the demand side of the equation whenever a city sees a resurgence in cases –
with Shanghai and Beijing currently on watch. China’s developments will likely
be the reason for the producer to express caution with regard to Western
desires for higher output quotas than planned. Further, ministers will likely have
to address the group’s over-compliance at some point as it produced 1.45mln BPD
below its March target (with data showing declines in Russian output), although
there is nothing to suggest that this issue will be picked up at this meeting.
All-in-all, everything currently points to another smooth set of meetings on
May 5th.

Australian trade balance (Thu): Headline trade balance for March is expected to
expand to a surplus of AUD 8.5bn from AUD 7.5bln the month before. The metric
will not change the course of RBA monetary policy with the calls growing for
the central bank to hike in May. Westpac expects imports to pull back following
the surge in February, whilst exports are seen leading the exports.

US jobs report (Fri): The consensus currently expects 400k nonfarm
payrolls will be added to the US economy in April (vs prior 431k; 3-month
average 562k, 6-month average 600k, 12-month average 541k). The weekly data for
the week that usually coincides with the reference period for the establishment
survey showed initial jobless claims rising to 185k from 177k heading into the
March jobs report, although the four-week average slipped to 177.5k from
188.75k; continuing claims eased to 1.408mln from 1.542mln, with the four-week
average also falling. With the Fed more concerned about the inflation part of
its mandate, rather than the employment side, there will be much attention on
the average hourly earnings metrics, which are seen rising by 0.4% M/M
(matching the March rate). That said, the Fed is likely to lift the Federal
Funds Target rate by a 50bps increment at next week’s confab; in fact, money
markets have priced 50bps in May, June and July.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.

China official PMIs for April 2022
• Manufacturing 47.4 vs. expected 48.0, prior 49.5
• Non-manufacturing 41.9 vs. prior 48.4
    
China Caixin /Markit Manufacturing PMI for April comes in at 46.0
• vs. expected 47.0, prior 48.1
The intensification of the COVID-19 outbreak and the associated lockdowns and restrictions across many centres in the country, most notably in Shanghai and other economic powerhouse regions, weighed on the economy in the month. 

May seasonals: What’s in store in the month ahead?
Crude oil gives up earlier gains and settles down $0.67 at $104.69
Russia’s Lavrov: Most key customers agreed to gas-payment terms
Canada February federal budget balance year-to-date -$69.8B vs -$75.29B prior
Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE 3.1% vs 4.0% prior
Baker Hughes oil rig count is up three on the week two to 352
European shares ending with gains for the trading day.
The first look at Q2 GDP from the Atlanta Fed tracker +1.9%
Is US housing headed for a U-turn? Here’s what homebuilders have to say
April final UMich consumer sentiment 65.2 vs 65.7 expected
Rising US yields not yet helping to lift the US dollar
US March PCE core +5.2% y/y vs +5.3% expected
US Q1 employment cost index +1.4% vs +1.1% expected
Canada February GDP 1.1% versus 0.8% estimate
The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar rally cools down
ECB’s Lane: Euro depreciation will be important factor in shaping ECB projections

 
As the clock ticks toward the Fed decision next Wednesday, the stocks are not taking it well. Of course, Amazon’s poor earnings after the close last night was a key catalyst today. Amazon shares are closing down over 14% on the day, and is also closing below its 200 week MA for the first time since 2009.
Apple’s earnings released yesterday were quite not as bad, but they warned about a revenue hit expected from China which acted as a reminder of the impact of the Covid lockdown for not only Apple, but others that rely on supply from that country. 
Will supply constraints/supply shock ever go away and what will be the impact on inflation going forward?  
Meanwhile the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, and have more or less telegraphed another 50 basis points and other tightenings into the year end as they try to break some of the inflation run higher and get their target rate toward the neutral rate of 2% to 2.5%.  
In further anticipation, rates moved higher today which acted as another head wind to the stock market. The 30 year yield is back above the 3.00% level after dipping to 2.82% at the low for the week. The 2 year yield is also back near the high for the cycle at 2.787%. The 10 year yield is 5 basis points from its cycle high at 2.981%

US yields move higher today

For the month of April, 

2 year yield moved from 2.33% t o 2.73% or +40 basis points
5 year yield moved from 2.46% to 2.96% or 50 basis points
10 year yield moved from 2.34% to 2.93% or +59 basis points
30 year yield moved from 2.45% to 3.00% or 55 basis points

For the stock market today, the major indices took it on the chin again after a reprieve yesterday:

Dow industrial average plunged -939.18 points or 2.77% to 32977.22
S&P index fell -155.57 points or -3.63% to 4131.92
NASDAQ index felt -536.80 points or -4.17% to 12334.65
Russell 2000 felt -53.84 points or -2.81% to 1864.10

For the week, the NASDAQ index was the worst performer losing close to 4% on the week as well. The numbers for the week are showing:

Dow industrial average, -2.47%
S&P index, -3.27%
NASDAQ index,  -3.93%
Russell 2000, -4.07%
Stocks continue to prepare for higher rates, higher inflation, and potentially slower growth ahead as well.  

In the forex today, the USD is ending mixed on the day with gains vs the NZD, AUD, CAD, and declines vs the GBP, JPY and EUR.  The USD was near unchanged vs the CHF today. 
The GBP was the strongest of the major today, while flow of funds exited the risk-off currencies. The NZD, AUD and CAD were the weakest of the majors.

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

Technically:EURUSD: The EURUSD is higher on the day but could not get above the falling 100 hour MA at 1.05907. The pair is trading at 1.0544 into the close after reaching a low at 1.04703 yesterday.  That was the lowest level since January 2017. If the pair cannot muster a move above the 100 hour MA next week, a move toward the 2016 low at 1.0339. After that and the choir will be singing for parity. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD had a nice rebound today off the lowest level since July 2020 yesterday at 1.2410. The price moved above its falling 100 hour MA at 1.2577 and reached a high today of 1.2606, but has rotated back toward the 200 hour MA into the close.  That MA at 1.2577 will be a barometer for the short term buyers and sellers next week.USDJPY: The USDJPY continued to make „20 year highs“ this week with the pair extending up to a high of 131.246. Today, however, saw the price move lower and test the old high from April 20 at 129.40. The price bounced near that level up to 129.73 into the close, but next week the 129.40 level will be a close barometer for the market. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and more downside probing can be expected.  USDCAD: The USDCAD moved below its 100 hour MA today for the first time since April 22 near 1.2790 and extended lower to the 38.2% of the move up from the April 21 low at 1.2718. However, buyers leaned there and pushed the price straight back up and through the broken 100 hour MA again. The buying did not stop until reaching 1.2859. The price is at 1.2853 into the close.  There is upside resistance from 1.28709 to 1.2900. A move above that area would have traders targeting the December 2021 high at 1.2963. Stay below and buyers may turn to sellers and push back toward the 100 day MA at 1.2678. NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is closing below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the 2020 low at 0.6465. The pair is closing at 0.6456.  The pair is also near the lowest level since June 2020.  A further move to the downside next week, will have trader targeting a lower trend line target at 0.6377. If the price can get and stay above the 50% there could be some corrective upside probing in the new week.    

The old adage is that stocks don’t bottom on Fridays. Of course, it’s also the final trading day of the month so that could have led to some special selling flows that could reverse on Monday as we begin May.
On the day:

S&P 500 -3.6% worst single day since June 2020. Lowest close since May 2021
Nasdaq -4.3%
DJIA 2.8%
Russell 2000 -2.9%Toronto TSX Comp -1.7%

Amazon was down 14% in its worst day since 2006.
On the week:

S&P 500 -3.3%
Nasdaq -3.9%
DJIA -2.5%
Russell 2000 -4.0%

On the month:

S&P 500 -8.8% — worst monthly drop since March 2020
Nasdaq -13.3% — largest monthly decline since 2008
DJIA -4.9% — worst monthly drop since March 2020

On the year, the Nasdaq is now down 21.2%. With that as a monthly close, it’s a bear market in tech stocks.

Drawdowns in big-cap tech:

AAPL 13.2%

MSFT 18.7%

GOOGL 23.6%

TSLA 29.0%

AMZN 34.1%

NVDA 44.2%

FB 47.4%

NFLX 72.3%

NZDUSD is trading below its 50% midpoint The NZDUSD is ending the week near the lows for the week/year and lowest level since July 2020. Looking at the daily chart, the pair is also trading just below the 50% currently at 0.64655. Stay below and move lower next week and the pair will start to target the 0.6377 area which is near lows going back to June 2020. It is also near a downward sloping trendline on the daily chart (see red and green numbered circles). Drilling to the hourly chart, the pair ticked higher in the Asian session today and approached the 50% of the move down from the high this week and ahead of the 100 hour MA (blue line).   However, the momentum stalled ahead of that retracement/MA level at 0.6547. The high price reached 0.6542 before sellers leaned and pushed the price back to the downside. The gains from the first half of the day, were fully retraced and then some in the 2nd half. The last target on the hourly is the low for the week at 0.6451. Ultimately it would take a move back above the falling 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and 50% retracement level is to tilt at least some of the bias back to the upside. Absent that, and the sellers remain in firm control. NZDUSD stay below the 50% and 100 day moving average today Helping the downside today is the continuation of the selling the stocks and movement out of risk. The NASDAQ index is now down close to 500 points on the day or -3.85%. The Dow industrial average is down over 800 points or -2.44%. The S&P index is down 141 points or -3.31%.

The headliner for the April seasonals package was that risk trades had room to continue to run.
That didn’t turn out to be the case at all but some of the seasonal trades still worked. For instance, our first pick was AUD/JPY longs. That pair made some good headway in April and still finished the month higher despite heavy selling in the last week or so.
Another one that worked was oil. Despite the SPR and China lockdowns, oil was remarkably resilient. That might speak to seasonal demand.
In other trades like stocks, cable and USD/CAD the seasonal patterns didn’t work at all.
Ultimately, they’re one part of the toolbox and are running into an aggressive Fed and expectations of a global growth stumble combined with a broad deleveraging.
Here’s what May has in store:
1) AUD weakness
The Australian dollar is unusually weak in May right across the board, even against related currencies like CAD (it’s the weakest month of the year by far in AUD/CAD).
2) Don’t doubt the dollar
The rally in the dollar was the singular event in the FX market in April. It took down some big levels against GBP, EUR and JPY — hitting multi-year highs. What next? The seasonals say it’s no time to stop betting on the buck. In the past 20 years, it’s averaged a 0.69% gain — the best of any month, including gains in 9 of the past 12 years.
3) Euro weakness
Given the strength in DXY, it should be no surprise that May is a weak month for the euro. In fact, it’s the weakest month by a decent margin. I would note though that it’s risen in May for two consecutive years. Still, there’s been a technical breakdown in the pair and the ECB is struggling to manage a rapidly-deteriorating growth picture combined with an inflation shock and a war. That’s not a pretty fundamental picture.
4) Cable softness
Cable crumbled late in April and there isn’t much seasonal help coming in May. It ranks as the second-worst month on average and is on a streak of declines in 11 of the past 12 years.

The big issue is not raising deposit rate from -0.50%, it is about normalisationI think Lane’s remarks above has made things rather clear. With the inflation report earlier today, there is little doubt that the ECB will look to angle things more aggressively or at least tee up a potential move in July. The fact that Lane isn’t pushing back on market expectations and instead is making mention to a weaker euro is quite a clear signal in my view.

The Reuters report says that the initial guidance would be expanded, with a source noting „some further detail on the analysist will be provided to member states“.For some context, Russia had proposed that buyers be obliged to deposit euros or dollars into an account with Gazprombank, which will then be used to convert them into rubles. Thus, allowing for the payment to be effectively made in rubles and satisfying Moscow’s demand on the matter.The issue here comes down to the interpretation of that series of transactions. If European buyers are to commit to that, are they actually paying in euros or in rubles effectively? The EU had said that complying with the proposal could breach the bloc’s sanctions but there is no black and white.As things stand, there are countries disagreeing with the advice by the EU with Poland and Bulgaria (both countries cut off by Russia) saying that it is confusing. As such, this threatens to undermine the unity within the bloc in going against Russia. But hey, it is the EU. What else is new. ¯_(ツ)_/¯