Bitcoin feels the need for correction before further growth 0 (0)

<p>Market picture</p><p>Bitcoin rose
5.3% last week to close at $23.8K. On Sunday, the first cryptocurrency was one
step away from $24K, updating its high since August. Ethereum gained 0.9% to
$1640. Top-10 leading altcoins have gained between 2.7% (Dogecoin) and 18.8%
(Polygon).</p><p>Total
cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose 4.4% to $1.08 trillion over the week,
according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index reached the
greed zone for the first time since late March last year.</p><p>Bitcoin is
gradually approaching its key moving averages. The 200-week is just above
$24.7K, and the 50-week is now at $24.5K. A break below these levels would be a
strong sell signal. A rebound above them could restore confidence in the crypto
market. But be prepared for a prolonged consolidation or correction before a
decisive move higher. </p><p>Polygon
(MATIC) broke into the top 10 by capitalisation, taking over Solana. Over the
past 30 days, the price of MATIC has increased by 52%. Ethereum’s second-tier
scaling network came second by daily users, behind the BNB chain.</p><p>Another
recalculation showed a 4.7% increase in the mining complexity of the first
cryptocurrency. The index renewed its all-time high at 39.35T.</p><p>News Background</p><p>According to
Matrixport, US institutional investors have started actively buying bitcoin,
accounting for up to 85% of all purchases. Altcoins are still largely lagging
but could soon overtake the top two cryptocurrencies. </p><p>According to
Reuters, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has begun inspecting
Wall Street financial advisors for cryptocurrency custody services.</p><p>One of the
largest rating agencies, Moody’s, is developing a scoring system to analyse the
risks of stablecoins. The platform will be based on assessing the quality of
collateral reports and will support up to 20 assets.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

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Dollar keeps more mixed in European morning trade 0 (0)

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Despite equities posturing more defensively, there isn’t a clear hint of a theme among major currencies. The dollar is trading more mixed as it is slightly higher against the yen, loonie and aussie but a touch softer against the euro, franc and kiwi at the moment. It seems like traders are still sorting out their feet to start the new week with <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/month-end-action-in-focus-20230130/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>month-end also in focus</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY was lower in Asia down to 129.20 but is now trading back up to around 130.00 although the predominantly downtrend is still very much intact (as seen below). Meanwhile, other dollar pairs are still respecting the technicals highlighted at the end of last week <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/its-been-a-choppy-week-for-the-dollar-what-are-the-key-levels-to-watch-20230127/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> so there isn’t much else to comment on that.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s going to be a bit messy to figure things out in the next few sessions as markets will be bracing for the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/another-week-of-central-bank-bonanza-coming-up-20230130/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>central bank bonanza</a> coming up later this week, while having to deal with month-end rebalancing flows as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But as always, the technicals are arguably the best tool you can use to try and define risk and gauge the market bias during times like these. Otherwise, there might not be much else to work with to start the week as all eyes will be on the Fed, BOE and ECB in the coming days.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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FX Majors Weekly Outlook (30-03 February) 0 (0)

<p>UPCOMING
EVENTS:</p><p>Tuesday: US
ECI, US Consumer Confidence.</p><p>Wednesday:
ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTs Job Openings, FOMC Policy Decision.</p><p>Thursday: BoE
Policy Decision, ECB Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims.</p><p>Friday: US
NFP, ISM Services PMI. </p><p>If the last
week was a pretty dull one with lack of big catalysts and a choppy price action,
this one is going to be the complete opposite. We will have the FOMC and other major
central bank policy decisions and lots of economic reports that the market is
particularly focused on.</p><p>The
„soft landing“ narrative is dominating the scene at the moment with
moderation in inflation and the resilience in the labour market. This has led
to an easing in financial conditions.</p><p>I think the
labour market data is more important now to the market given that the Fed has
complained many times about the “extremely tight” labour market. We’ve finally
been seeing disinflation in the past few months and the market has rallied on
that, but the labour market data has consistently beat expectations. </p><p>This is
something that should keep the Fed on its track to hike to their projected
terminal rate because from a risk management perspective they can’t risk
another spike in inflation given the tightness in the labour market, the easing
in financial conditions and the China reopening. </p><p>Tuesday: The
Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected at 1.1% for Q4, down from the 1.2% of
Q3. Wage inflation is something the Fed and the markets are keeping an eye on
for the risk of a wage price spiral, but in the past months this risk subsided
as data showed a moderation in wage growth. </p><p>Since the
labour market is what in my opinion the market is more focused on now, I would
look at the US Consumer Confidence Present Situation Index, which correlates
with the unemployment rate, and generally foreshadows changes in employment by
a couple of months. </p><p>Wednesday: The ISM
Manufacturing PMI is expected to slip to 48.0 from the prior 48.4. The
employment and prices paid sub-indexes will also be important to watch, with
the former carrying more weight now for me. This is also why the US JOLTs Job
Openings should also be market moving in case of a notable fall in the data. </p><p>The FOMC is
expected to hike by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 4.50-4.75%. This move has been
well telegraphed in the past weeks by further moderation in inflation and Fed
members leaning on the smaller increase. In fact, the market is pricing a 98.4%
chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 bps. The Fed generally follows market
pricing, so it’s very unlikely to see them surprising with a 50 bps hike. I can
see them raising by 50 bps only if they wanted to break the current “animal
spirits” that made financial conditions to ease quite strongly in the recent
months. Such a move would certainly trigger a big risk off across the board. </p><p>I would also
add that the market is underestimating a lot the Fed’s resolve of hiking to
their projected terminal rate and stay there for a while. Their projections saw
a 5.1% terminal rate with 4.6% unemployment rate in 2023. This means that they
would be comfortable to not only hiking to their projected rate but also stay
there for longer as long as the unemployment rate stays below 4.6%. The current
unemployment rate is 3.5%. </p><p>Thursday: The BoE is
expected to hike by 50 bps bringing the Bank Rate to 4%. We will likely see
dissent again within the MPC with Tenreyro and Mann probably voting for
unchanged. The market expects further 25 bps hikes at the next meetings with
the terminal rate seen at 4.50%.</p><p>The ECB is
expected to hike by 50 bps bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. The ECB members
and especially President Lagarde have been showing a more resolute and
aggressive stance on their tightening in recent months with calls of multiple
50 bps hikes. A recent report from Bloomberg though citing “ECB Sources” (which
are generally right) suggested that policymakers are beginning to consider a
step down to a 25 bps pace from March onwards. However, in recent speeches ECB
members leaned against such a report. The ECB is also expected to start QT in
March 2023.</p><p>The US
Jobless Claims is expected to show an increase to 200K from the prior 186K and
unchanged for the Continuing Claims at 1675K. Jobless Claims reports have been
consistently showing strength. A big miss should catch the market’s attention. </p><p>Friday: The NFP
report is expected to show 185K jobs added, down from the prior 223K. The rate
of jobs growth has been moderating month after months, but the labour market
remains extremely tight. The unemployment rate is seen at 3.6%, up from the
prior 3.5%. Average Hourly Earnings are seen moderating again with the Y/Y
reading expected at 4.3%, down from the prior 4.6% and the M/M figure to remain
unchanged at 0.3%. </p><p>The ISM
Services PMI is expected to return in expansionary territory at 50.3 after a
surprisingly big dive to 49.6 in the prior report. Another miss should be bad for
risk sentiment. </p><p>This article
was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

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S&P500 Technical Analysis – Fed in Focus 0 (0)

<p>In terms of technical analysis for the S&P500, the major trendline that defined
the 2022 bear market has been finally breached. The market keeps on charging
higher and higher on expectations that the Fed will end its tightening cycle
soon and inflation returns back to target without a significant damage to the
economy. </p><p>In fact, since November 2022,
inflation data have been showing a clear easing in inflation and the labour
market data kept on beating expectations. </p><p>The problem is that inflation and
employment are lagging indicators and the leading indicators have been pointing
to something pretty bleak on the horizon, which has been largely ignored by the
market. </p><p>It might be that until the labour
market data do not show a notable weakening, the bulls will have the upper hand. This week there are many
economic reports focused on the labour market, so it’s going to be a big one. </p><p>The other major risk is that the
Fed decides to surprise with a 50 bps hike, although this is very unlikely
since they follow market pricing, and they already telegraphed a 25 bps move.</p><p>S&P500 Technical Analysis</p><p>On the daily chart above, we can
see that the major blue <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>trendline</a> that defined the 2022 bear
market has been breached. The bulls may now target the first <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>resistance</a> at 4175. </p><p>If they manage to extend higher,
then the resistance at 4324 will be targeted. If we see the bears smacking the
price back down below the blue trendline, that would be a possible major
fakeout signal and the start of another big sell off with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>support</a> at 1506.</p><p>Looking at the 4 hour chart, we
can see that the minor upward blue trendline will define the current short-term
uptrend from the major downtrend. At the moment, the price is <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>MACD</a>, which generally signals a
possible pullback or reversal. </p><p>If the labour market reports beat
expectations again and the Fed doesn’t deliver any surprises, the resistance at
4175 should be reached without issues. </p><p>Zooming in to the 1 hour chart, we can see that there are
two possible scenarios for the near-term price action: break above the 4108
resistance and the bulls should manage to reach the 4175 resistance, on the
other hand, break below the 4056 support and the bears should regain control
and target the minor blue trendline. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

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Explosions reported in several places in Iran 0 (0)

<p>News is still murky but there are reports of explosions in several parts of Iran.</p><p>Many of the reports are centered around Isfahan, which is a central city that’s reportedly home to some military plants, perhaps the ones supplying drones to Russia for the war in Ukraine.</p><p>Here’s a purported video of one strike:</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“><p dir=“ltr“ lang=“en“>MULTIPLE REPORTS: Suspected NATO-nation linked drone attack on Isfahan, Iran, involving several explosives and Iran Defense Ministry facilities. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>#Ukraine</a> <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/3bsyIdrxz8″>pic.twitter.com/3bsyIdrxz8</a></p>— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/afshinrattansi/status/1619457070801235968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>January 28, 2023</a>That looks minor and one report says they were drone attacks that failed but this is a much larger fireball:</blockquote><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“><p dir=“ltr“ lang=“en“>MULTIPLE REPORTS: Suspected NATO-nation linked drone attack on Isfahan, Iran, involving several explosives and Iran Defense Ministry facilities. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>#Ukraine</a> <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/3bsyIdrxz8″>pic.twitter.com/3bsyIdrxz8</a></p>— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/afshinrattansi/status/1619457070801235968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>January 28, 2023</a>At times like this fake news tends to spread quickly. I’ve seen what looks like energy infrastructure in flames. Many are pointing at Israel after Netanyahu said Israel’s response to a shooting there this weekend would be „strong, swift and precise.“The Supreme National Security Council of Iran has reportedly called an emergency meeting to discuss the drone attacks.I suspect it will be a strong open for oil and gold.</blockquote>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include FOMC, ECB, BoE, PMI data, US Jobs, EZ CPI 0 (0)

<p>Australian Retail Sales (Tue): The December Retail
Sales data is seen printing at -1.0% vs the prior of +1.4%. Desks highlight
that November’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday events were successful, as
indicated in the November data, although analysts will now assess the impact of
higher rates over the Christmas period. Westpac, citing the Westpac Card
Tracker, suggests that conditions in December were buoyant, although “retail
components were softer with gains in card activity centering on non-retail
segments like travel and recreational services. The high weighting of food
(accounting for just over half of all retail) also looks to have been a drag,
some of which may be price-related.”, the desk says, as it forecasts a
shallower contraction of 0.3%.

Chinese NBS PMI (Tue): January’s official PMIs are expected to signal
improved sentiment following the abandonment of China’s zero-COVID policy.
Markets expect the Manufacturing metric to rise to 49.7 from 47.0 in December –
remaining in contraction territory, while there are currently no forecasts for
the Non-Manufacturing (prev. 41.6) and Composite (prev. 42.6) metrics. Analysts
at ING also expect the Manufacturing PMI to remain in contraction while
forecasting that the Non-Manufacturing PMI should recover slightly, with a
similar pattern expected in the Caixin reports. As usual, the PMI releases will
likely be dissected for anecdotal commentary on growth, inflation, and firms’
sentiment.

EZ Prelim. GDP (Tue): Expectations are for prelim Q/Q GDP for Q4 to
contract 0.1% vs. the 0.3% expansion in Q3, with the Y/Y rate forecast at 1.7%
vs. prev. 2.3%. Ahead of the release, analysts at Investec highlight that the
upcoming release will likely see a break in the trend seen through Q1-Q3 of the
Eurozone economy expanding despite headwinds from the surge in energy prices.
Investec anticipates just a modest contraction for Q4, but notes that it does
not expect the Eurozone to “escape a shallow recession this winter”, adding
that despite the recent declines in spot gas prices, consumers in Europe are
still being squeezed by higher energy prices and higher inflation more
generally. Investec also cautions that H2 2023 could bring a renewed set of
headwinds for the region amid the potential for renewed energy price pressures and
the impact of prior rate increases being felt. For the upcoming ECB policy
announcement, ING (who hold an above consensus call) notes that Q4 “GDP is
likely to see growth stalling, though avoiding outright shrinkage, which should
also give the ECB more confidence to stay the course”.

US Employment Costs (Tue): In remarks on January 19th, Federal Reserve
Vice Chair Brainard said that there were tentative signs that US wage growth
was moderating, noting that the growth in average hourly earnings has softened
recently, stepping down to a pace of 4.1% annualised on a 3-month basis in
December, which is down from roughly 4.5% on a 6- and 12-month basis. The
influential Fed policymaker said that she would be closely watching to see
whether the employment cost index data for Q4 continues to show the
deceleration from Q3. Brainard said that price trends and the deceleration in
wages provides some reassurance that we are not currently experiencing a 1970s‑style
wage–price spiral, and therefore, it remains possible that a continued
moderation in aggregate demand could facilitate continued easing in the labour
market and a reduction in inflation without a significant loss of employment.
This could give the Fed enough confidence to potentially hike rates further as
it assesses what impact the 425bps of tightening implemented so far has had on
bringing down price pressures. According to Refinitiv, analysts expect the data
to print 1.2% in Q4, matching the rate seen in Q3. Money markets are currently
pricing that the Fed will be cutting rates towards the end of this year, and
while officials have leaned back on this narrative, cooling in the employment
cost index, combined with a continued softening in other inflation and wage
measures, will at least give the central bank scope to slow down monetary
tightening as the economy slows, if it needs to.

EZ Flash CPI (Wed): Expectations are for Y/Y HICP for January to decline
to 9.0% from 9.2%, with the core reading (ex-food and energy) seen remaining at
6.9% and the super-core print set to decline to 5.1% from 5.2%. The prior
report was characterised by a return of headline inflation to single-digits,
driven by declines in energy prices, however, the super-core metric actually
rose from 5.0% to 5.2% amid increases in goods and services inflation. At the
time, ING cautioned “the next two months will be critical as many businesses
traditionally change prices at the start of the year. It could therefore be
that core inflation rises further from now”. Ahead of the upcoming release, Moody’s
looks for more of the same for headline inflation with energy prices on the
decline. However, there are forces slowing the extent of the decline with
analysts highlighting “the rebound in German energy inflation following the
one-off policy effect in December, and the lifting by 15% of France’s price cap
on electricity and gas”. Moody’s adds that it expects food inflation to remain
strong and anticipates an increase in the core reading given “that PMI surveys
from January reported a tangible increase in selling prices by manufacturers
and service-providers”. From a policy perspective, the release will likely have
little sway on Thursday’s ECB policy announcement with markets assigning a
circa 87% chance of a 50bps move. However, beyond February, a strong print for
core inflation could convince some market participants that another 50bps in
March is on the cards despite recent source reporting suggesting that 25bps may
be on the table for that meeting.

JMMC Meeting (Wed): The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)
will meet on Wednesday to take stock of energy market fundamentals. This will
not be a decision-making meeting – with the next OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting
currently slated for 4th June 2023. Sources via Bloomberg and Reuters suggest
the JMMC is to recommend keeping oil production levels unchanged, citing a
tentative recovery in global demand. The recovery optimism arises from a
combination of mounting calls for less-severe-than-expected recessions/GDP
slowdowns, coupled with China abandoning its zero-COVID policy and reopening
its markets. Despite OPEC+ dropping its format of monthly decision-making
meetings, the Saudi Energy Minister emphasises that OPEC+ will remain
“proactive and pre-emptive” to keep oil markets balanced. “Prices have firmed,
supply remains tight, and significant levels of uncertainty prevail for both
supply and demand.”, according to Eurasia Group, “OPEC+ looks increasingly
likely to keep output levels unchanged even after the scheduled meeting.”

Quarterly Refunding (Wed): The US Treasury is expected to leave all its
coupon auction sizes unchanged at the February refunding announcement on
Wednesday, February 1st. For November, the Treasury estimated USD 578bln in net
marketable debt for Q1, but it’s possible this could rise when the latest
estimates are released on January 30th on account of the likely lower Treasury
General Account (TGA) balance at quarter-end. There is great uncertainty as to
how the month-to-month T-Bill issuance will pan out given the ongoing debt limit
saga, but in general, it is expected that issuance will ramp up later in the
year after a resolution on the debt limit is reached, which is expected to take
place at some point in the summer. Meanwhile, an area of discussion is likely
to be around adjustments to the auction calendar, which follows the Primary
Dealer Questionnaire asking about the liquidity benefits of reducing the number
of CUSIPs for Treasuries. Finally, after saying in November that research into
a Treasury buyback programme would continue, alongside positive feedback from
dealers, any progress on the issue will be eyed.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Wed): The headline is expected to slip a
little further below the 50-level, which divides expansion and contraction,
with the consensus view expecting 48.2 in January from 48.4 in December.
Although the data sets don’t always behave in the same way, S&P Global’s
flash PMI data for January reported a small increase from 46.2 to 46.8,
signalling a solid decline in operating conditions at the start of 2023 as
manufacturing demand conditions remained subdued, the survey compiler said. The
report also noted that input prices increased at a faster pace in January,
ending a sequence of moderation in cost inflation that began in mid-2022. There
will be attention on the forward-looking new orders sub-index, which has not
been above the 50-mark since August. “The worry is that, not only has the
survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but
the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated into the new year, linked in
part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive
tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks,” S&P Global said.

FOMC Policy Announcement (Wed): The consensus expects the FOMC will lift
its Federal Funds Rate target by 25bps to 4.50-4.75%, although some still
expect the central bank to hike rates by a larger 50bps increment. Money
markets are pricing the smaller move with almost certainty. Money market
pricing and commentary from Fed officials has been diverging; policymakers have
been reticent to get into discussions about when the central bank will cut
rates, instead focussing on the still-high inflation levels. For historical
context, the Fed has tended to hold rates at neutral for between 3-15 months,
with the average being about 6.5 months. Money markets, however, are pricing
rate cuts at the end of this year as the economy slows. While the Fed will
likely to continue its course until its inflation goals are more clearly in sight,
investors are debating the level that rates will peak, and how long they will
be held at terminal; money markets imply the terminal rate between 4.75-5.00%,
more dovish than the 5.00-5.25% pencilled in by officials in their December
economic projections. Accordingly, Chair Powell is again expected to lean back
on the market’s dovishness, as well as the looser financial conditions that
have been seen recently. On an operational note: Chair Powell tested positive
for COVID, it was announced on January 18th; in the event that Powell is unable
to attend the February FOMC, guidance suggests that the FOMC’s Vice Chair
Williams will assume Powell’s duties.

BCB Announcement (Wed): The COPOM in December held the Selic rate at
13.75%, as the market was expecting. Credit Suisse said its accompanying
statement appeared neutral, with the central bank not giving any further
information about the prospective scenario. The statement did allude to
concerns about fiscal dynamics, noting that “the Committee will closely monitor
future developments in fiscal policy and, in particular, its effects on asset
prices and inflation expectations, with potential impacts on the dynamics of
future inflation.” Political pressure seems to be ramping up on the central
bank. Additionally, a former Deputy Governor who played a crucial role in
developing the BCB’s inflation-targeting regime, said that officials had set
excessively restrictive goals, and that the current targets failed to account
for the country’s unusually large fixed fiscal outlays, adding that officials
were putting themselves in a corner, noting that Brazil, unlike other EM
economies, spends more on pensions and public services. Credit Suisse said that
“the uncertainty surrounding the waiver amounts and conditions to be approved
in the Bill for Constitutional Amendment for the Transition and the absence of
a credible fiscal anchor in the short term lead us to believe that interest
rates will not be sufficiently restrictive, given neutral interest rates have
risen and inflation expectations should remain high.” The bank recently revised
its expectations for the Selic rate, and now sees 11.50% by year-end (vs 13.75%
previously), and for the end of the 2024 year, sees the Selic at 8.50% (cut
from its prior view of 11.50%).

New Zealand Jobs (Wed): The Q4 Unemployment rate is forecast to dip to
3.2% from 3.3% with the Participation Rate seen at 71.00% against 71.70% in Q3,
whilst the Q/Q Employment Change was previously at 1.3%. Analysts at Westpac
expect a 0.3% rise in the employment change, partially aided by the return of
migrant workers. “We expect that unemployment will rise in the coming years as
the economy cools off. But with labour typically being a laggard in the
economic cycle, we are not likely to see signs of that just yet.”, the Aussie
bank cautions. From a central bank standpoint, the RBNZ is seemingly more
focused on inflation after Q4 CPI eased from the prior quarter, but printed
hotter-than-expected, whilst the newly-appointed New Zealand PM Hipkins also
suggested more must be done to combat high inflation.

BoE Announcement (Thu): 29/42 surveyed analysts by Reuters look for a
50bps hike in the Bank Rate to 4%, with the remaining 13 looking for a more
modest 25bps adjustment. Market pricing agrees with consensus as a 50bps move
is priced at around 76%. A consensus on the vote split is yet to be published,
however, the decision will likely be subject to dissent given that Tenreyro and
Mann voted unchanged at the December decision. HSBC looks for similar dissent this
time around with none of the other members of the MPC expected to switch to the
unchanged camp yet. Within those remaining seven, there is likely to be a split
of views, the extent to which is hard to judge given the lack of comms from the
MPC since December. HSBC has attempted to form a base case scenario with an
out-of-consensus call for a 25bps hike in which Bailey, Cunliffe, Broadbent and
Pill go for 25bps whilst Mann, Haskell and Ramsden back a 50bps move. However,
such a step down in the cadence of rate hikes would likely need to be
accompanied by guidance that rates will still have further to run given
developments in the labour market. Looking beyond February, a 25bps hike in
March is priced at around 80% with markets split on whether a further 25bps
would follow in Q2 to take the terminal rate to 4.5%. In terms of the
accompanying forecasts, HSBC expects that the impact of the stronger GBP and
softer energy prices will likely outweigh the impact from stronger growth and
lower rates, which should therefore lead to a downward revision to the MPC’s Q4
2023 inflation forecast to 6.9% from 7.9%.

ECB Announcement (Thu): 55/59 surveyed analysts look for a 50bps hike in
the deposit rate to 2.5% with market pricing assigning a circa 90% chance of
such an outcome; this would take the deposit rate into slightly restrictive
territory. The December meeting saw President Lagarde state „based on the
information that we have available today, that predicates another
50-basis-point rate hike at our next meeting, and possibly at the one after
that, and possibly thereafter“. This statement saw consensus coalesce
around the idea of a 50bps hike for the upcoming meeting and comms from ECB
officials have done nothing to lead markets away from this view. That said, some
confusion around the rate hiking cycle was observed after a Bloomberg report
suggested that policymakers are reportedly beginning to consider just a 25bp
hike in March. Nonetheless, commentary from policymakers has done little to
suggest that the GC is considering such a step down at this stage and has
leaned against such reporting. In terms of market pricing, a 50bps increase in
March is priced at around 80% with another 25bps expected to come thereafter in
May; what happens beyond May is subject to divided opinion. With regards to the
balance sheet, the prior meeting saw the GC announce that from the beginning of
March 2023 onwards, the APP portfolio will decline at an average pace of EUR
15bln per month until the end of Q2 with its subsequent pace to be determined
over time. For the upcoming meeting, further details on the programme are set
to be announced, on which, Morgan Stanley expects „more details on how the
decline in reinvestments will be distributed between the different APP
programmes, as well as jurisdictions (most likely to be done proportionally in
line with the capital key)“. MS adds that a detailed announcement of the
entire expected QT path is less likely with guidance to be kept
„general“.

US Jobs Report (Fri): The rate of payroll additions to the US economy is
expected to moderate to 175k in January (vs 223k prior, three-month average
247k, six-month average 307k, 12-month average 375k). The unemployment rate is
forecast to tick-up by 0.1ppts to 3.6%. With monetary policymakers firmly fixated
on reducing inflationary pressures, there will again be outsized attention on
average hourly earnings, which are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, matching the rate
seen in December. Labour market proxies continue to allude to tight conditions;
the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims data for the week that
coincides with the establishment survey window declined vs the comparable week
for the December data. That said, Capital Economics points out that while
layoffs remain low, demand for labour has eased in recent months, as evidenced
by the employment sub-indices in the S&P Global PMI data, and along with
other measures, the consultancy says it implies a slowdown in overall
employment growth soon. Elsewhere, it is worth noting that annual benchmark revisions
are also due to be made to the data series, and some believe that this could
see a downward revision to many of the payrolls numbers we saw in the second
half of 2022, as hinted at by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

US ISM Services PMI (Fri): Analysts expect the Services ISM headline
will return above the 50-mark, which separates expansion and contraction, with
the consensus looking for 50.5 in January from 49.6 in December. As a
comparison, S&P Global’s flash US services business activity index posted
46.6 in January from 44.7 in December, signalling a solid fall in service
sector output, but one that was the softest since last October. “The slower
fall in business activity was in part linked to a less marked contraction in
new orders at service providers,” S&P Global said, adding that “the
decrease in new business was only marginal overall.” However, the report noted
that “customer hesitancy and the impact of inflation on spending remained a key
drag on new domestic and external sales.”</p><p>This article originally appeared on <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/blog/2834-newsquawk-week-ahead-january-30th-february-3rd-highlights-include-fomc-ecb-and-boe-policy-announcements-pmi-data-ez-cpi-gdp-us-jobs&utm_source=forexlive&utm_medium=research&utm_campaign=partner-post&utm_content=week-ahead“>Newsquawk</a></p>

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: PCE data matches estimates 0 (0)

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-pce-core-inflation-44-vs-44-expected-20230127/“>US December PCE core inflation +4.4% vs +4.4% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/umich-final-january-consumer-sentiment-649-vs-646-expected-20230127/“>UMich final January consumer sentiment 64.9 vs 64.6 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-pending-home-sales-25-vs-09-expected-20230127/“>US December pending home sales +2.5% vs -0.9% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dallas-fed-trimmed-mean-pce-price-index-23-annualized-in-december-vs-30-prior-20230127/“>Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE price index +2.3% annualized in December vs +3.0% prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canadian-federal-government-budget-deficit-shrinks-dramatically-20230127/“>Canadian federal government budget deficit shrinks dramatically</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/elon-musk-faces-sec-probe-for-role-in-tesla-self-driving-claims-20230127/“>Elon Musk faces SEC probe for role in Tesla self-driving claims</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/how-do-credit-card-companies-view-the-health-of-the-consumer-20230127/“>How do credit card companies view the health of the consumer?</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $1 to $1928</li><li>US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 3.51%</li><li>WTI crude oil down $1.63 to $79.37</li><li>S&P 500 up 0.25% to 4070</li><li>JPY leads, EUR lags</li></ul><p>The week is winding down and FX is largely flat on the day. There was some USD buying into the London fix but it reversed in the hour following and then the market coasted sideways to the finish with the market turning its gaze towards next week’s big central bank decisions (Fed, ECB and BOE).</p><p>EUR/USD touched a low of 1.0836 into the fix but bounced 30 pips from there to finish the week largely flat. Cable was similar with a fall to 1.2345 to match yesterday’s low (also at the fix) before a bounce to 1.2398 late. It was also flat on the week as it consolidates below 1.2400.</p><p>USD/JPY continues to consolidate just off the bottom of the January low. JPG yields tested 0.50% today for the first time since the BOJ decision in a sign that the squeeze is over. The range was narrow this week and the market is likely to go with the next break in the pair.</p><p>Commodity currencies largely traded sideways on the day, which was a bit of surprise given the reversal and decline in oil. CAD finished slightly higher on the day but there were some warning signs with selling in copper and some China-related markets.</p><p>I’m going to start asking ChatGPT to write Friday poems that summarize the mood of the market.</p><p>Meme stocks, oh how they soar,Like a cat playing with a door,Retail investors, they flock,To buy in, like a rooster on a rock.Gamestop, AMC, and more,The memes they’re worth fighting for,But watch out, don’t get too caught,The market’s a roller coaster, it’s hot.Redditors, they hold the key,To memes that will make you glee,But beware, it’s not always sunny,Meme stocks can make you feel like a dummy.So hold on to your wallets tight,And don’t believe in everything that’s bright,In the world of memes, it’s all a game,Just remember to always do your own research, and don’t be lame.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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US equities post another solid day, led by tech stocks 0 (0)

<p>Closing changes in North American equities:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 +0.5%</li><li>Nasdaq +1.3%</li><li>Russell 2000 +0.8%</li><li>Toronto TSX Comp +0.1%</li></ul><p>On the week:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 +2.7%</li><li>Nasdaq +4.6%</li><li>Russell 2000 +2.7%</li><li>Toronto TSX Comp +1.1%</li></ul><p>The story of the week is the revival of the high flyers of 2021 with Tesla leading the way in a back-to-back 11% rally. With today’s rally, the Nasdaq blasted above the Nov/Dec highs.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Elon Musk faces SEC probe for role in Tesla self-driving claims 0 (0)

<p>There is going to be some kind of reckoning around claims about ’self-driving‘ and robotaxis. Elon is currently in a lawsuit that’s in court right now about his ‚funding secured‘ tweets and he’s a guy who has pushed the limits of truth.</p><p>Consumer Reports this week ranked Tesla’s driver assistance features as 7th among car makers and his competitors certainly aren’t calling theirs ’self-driving‘. There’s a matter of truth in advertising here and I don’t think adding ‚beta‘ to the end of it changes that. But if I were Tesla, I’d make the claim that it was ignored by regulators for so long as it’s tantamount to endorsement that the strategy was legal.</p><p>In any case, this market no longer cares about reality or fundamentals, it’s all momentum and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/o/options/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“d0430eb9-1764-409c-ab53-4952eb20940d“ target=“_blank“>options</a> activity. Shares of Tesla are up 11% in back-to-back days.</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/elon-musk-faces-sec-probe-for-role-in-tesla-self-driving-claims?srnd=premium&sref=h2AwP2mF“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Here’s the Bloomberg report</a>.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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What’s priced in for the central bank meetings next week 0 (0)

<p>We saw the Bank of Canada signal a shift to the sidelines this week but that’s not likely to be the case with the trio of major central banks due to weigh in next week.</p><p>First up is the FOMC decision on Wednesday and the market isn’t pricing in any drama around Powell and the Fed. They’ve strongly signaled a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes and that has the market pricing in a 97% chance of 25 bps and only the slightest tail risk of 50 bps. Given the enthusiasm in markets, I’d put the odds of 50 bps slightly higher.</p><p>The following day features both the ECB and BOE decisions. The ECB is expected to hike rates by 50 bps to 2.50% and that’s priced at 86% but there’s a 14% chance of 75 bps. I think the odds here of 75 bps are too high. There have been so many signals about back-to-back 50 bps moves from the ECB that I don’t see the need to shift.</p><p>Of the three, the BOE is the least certain in terms of market pricing. The rates market sits at 70% for 50 bps and 30% for 25 bps. The market will be looking at the voting here as the uncertainty is high around the future rate path.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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