<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Much like AUD/USD, there is a relatively mild bounce in the pair today but it doesn’t take away from the notable technical development that we saw yesterday. The pair not only broke back below both its 100 (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages but also took out the 38.2 Fib retracement level of its swing higher since October, seen at 0.6145.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The latter helped to arrest the declines at the end of February but now with those key levels out of the way, sellers are in control and are looking poised to try to establish a further downside leg in the pair.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The next key area of support will come from the 0.6000 mark alongside the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 0.6025.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s now all about dollar sentiment and as highlighted with other dollar pairs earlier, a lot will rest on the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-landmines-ahead-of-the-fomc-policy-meeting-decision-later-this-month-20230308/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>upcoming landmines</a> before the FOMC policy meeting decision on 22 March. And we won’t have to wait long as there will be the US ADP employment report later today, which will act as a teaser for the US non-farm payrolls on Friday.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that after falling for basically the whole February, gold had a nice bounce
at the start of March. The pullback brought the price back to the red long
period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> where the sellers started to pile in. </p><p>Gold is sensitive to real yields,
and these have been rising lately as the market is pricing a more hawkish Fed
given that the US data started to come in hot since February onwards. </p><p>Yesterday, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ka-powell-20230308/“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> opened the door for a 50bps hike and a higher
terminal rate which caused a selloff in gold as the market is now pricing a
higher chance of the more aggressive hike at the March meeting. </p><p>The market will now focus on the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>NFP and CPI report</a> that are coming next and beats
in the data should send the price even lower, while misses should give us a
strong rally, possibly towards the 1900 level. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the buyers couldn’t sustain the breakout of the 1860 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> zone and gave up to the sellers
resulting in a fakeout. The big selloff you see on the chart was some
positioning into Powell’s testimony and then more selling as Powell sounded
more hawkish than expected. </p><p>The price has overstretched a bit
yesterday as depicted by the distance between the price and the blue short
period moving average. Generally, we can see some consolidation or a pullback
before the next push into the original direction. The most likely area for a
pullback would be the resistance zone at 1825. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the possible resistance for a pullback. The 1825 area has the
red long period moving average and as you can see looking left, this level has
been respected by the market several times. </p><p>That’s where we will most likely
see the sellers piling in again trading into the NFP. In case, the NFP misses
expectations, the buyers will have the conviction to break the resistance and
probably extend the rally towards the 1860 level. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the buyers are struggling breaking decisively above the 0.94 handle.
The falling channel was <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> and this generally leads to the
price rallying back to the top of the channel once there’s a breakout. So,
technically the buyers will target the 0.96 handle and if the US data keeps
coming in hot, then it’s basically assured that we will get there. </p><p>Yesterday, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ka-powell-20230308/“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> opened the door for a 50bps hike and a higher
terminal rate if the data remains strong which prompted the market to buy the
USD aggressively. The next big event now is the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>NFP report on Friday</a> and if we get a beat, then we
will most likely see the USD bid across the board, while a miss would cause
some strong weakness in the greenback. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the struggle the buyers are finding extending past the 0.94
handle. We got quite a big pullback on the first try breaking out of that <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a>, but the buyers defended the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 0.9287. </p><p>Given that the market is now
pricing a higher chance of a 50bps hike, a higher terminal rate and chances of
good US data, we should expect the buyers to remain in control and keep bidding
the USD to new higher highs. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see where we would most likely find buyers in case the price pulls back before
pushing up again. The area between 0.9400 and 0.9380 has some technical
support. The 0.94 handle could be a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/using-psychological-price-levels-for-your-trading-20220414/“>psychological
support</a> being a round number and the 38.2% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level would bring the market back into equilibrium
from overstretched highs after yesterday’s huge rally. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>10-year Treasury yields down 5.5 bps to 3.928%</li><li>10-year German bond yields down 6.2 bps to 2.665%</li><li>10-year Italian bond yields down 12.3 bps to 4.450%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The drop in yields is at least helping out equities a little, with S&P 500 futures seen up 9 points, or 0.2%, currently. Meanwhile, European indices are also up slightly by around 0.1% to 0.2% across the board. That said, the early moves now may not mean much as market players are all waiting on Fed chair Powell’s remarks later in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Looking at FX, there isn’t much change among major currencies with exception to the aussie as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/aussie-dribbles-lower-in-european-morning-trade-20230307/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> – owing to the RBA’s less hawkish policy decision earlier today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As a reminder once again, just be wary that we may see <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-the-text-of-powells-testimony-may-be-released-ahead-of-his-appearance-20230307/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>the text of Powell’s testimony be released ahead of time</a>.</p><p>Is it time for my speech yet?</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In the article, Timiraos says that „Powell is likely to caution on Capitol Hill that strong economic activity this year could lead U.S. central bank officials to raise interest rates more than they expected to combat high inflation“. Besides that, the rest is just some backdrop reading and you can check it out <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-to-testify-to-congress-on-outlook-for-rates-inflation-e4e7f1e3?mod=latest_headlines“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>here</a> (may be gated).</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As a reminder, we might be getting the text to Powell’s testimony a little earlier than his scheduled appearance. Keep an eye out for something between 1200 GMT to 1400 GMT.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price is trending downwards in a clean way. The blue short period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> has been acting as resistance which is a sign of a strong selling
momentum. The sellers will have the red long period moving average and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> as resistance in case the price
pulls back. </p><p>As of now, the sellers are in
control and it looks like we will have a test of the 0.6629 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> soon. The RBA today delivered a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/aussie-lower-after-rba-offers-subtle-change-to-policy-guidance-20230307/“>dovish
hike</a> which should give the US Dollar another tailwind as the market looks
for a higher terminal rate for the Fed. In case key US <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>economic data</a> like NFP and CPI comes out soft
though, we should see AUD/USD rallying as the market would reprice lower future
interest rate expectations. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been ranging for about a week but today’s RBA monetary
policy announcement gave the sellers the catalyst to break out of the range. </p><p>The sellers may not be out of the
woods yet though as today we will have <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-the-text-of-powells-testimony-may-be-released-ahead-of-his-appearance-20230307/“>Fed
Chair Powell testimony</a> and it’s expected that if he sounds dovish, the US
Dollar will lose some ground so we may see the price getting back into the
range, and in case he sounds hawkish, we should see the US Dollar getting even
stronger. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the breakout of the range caused by the RBA catalyst. The
buyers will need the price to get back into the range to hope for another run
into the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 0.6781 which will need the
support from the fundamentals. </p><p>The sellers may wait for a retest
of the broken support now turned resistance before piling in again or more
probably wait for the Fed Chair Powell testimony later today. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price started to consolidate near the neckline of the possible <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>double
top</a>.
Generally, when there’s a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>divergence</a> between the double top and an
oscillator like the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> in this case, the chart pattern
is more reliable. </p><p>To be confirmed, the price needs
to break decisively below the neckline and it looks like the market is awaiting
new <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>key economic reports</a> like the NFP on Friday or CPI
the next week before getting the conviction and the momentum necessary to break
below such a strong level. </p><p>For now, the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are acting as resistance maintaining the bearish bias, but they have
compressed and are now threatening a cross to the upside. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price couldn’t break the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> on the first try, but it’s now
probing again above it. The range is clear with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 1.2143 and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1.1922. The buyers may now
target the top of the range if the break above the trendline is successful. </p><p>The sellers may want to wait for
the price to return back below the trendline to gain more conviction and pile
in ahead of the break below the support. We have <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/we-could-get-the-text-of-powells-opening-remarks-to-congress-later-today-20230306/“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> testimony today, and it’s expected that if he
sounds dovish risk assets will rally and support GBP/USD upside. On the other
hand, a more hawkish Powell should cause risk aversion and support the US
Dollar. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the current breakout of the trendline comes with a caveat: there is a
divergence between the price and the MACD. This may signal a fake breakout, but
it would need a fall back below the trendline to be confirmed. We have also an
upward trendline that supports the current uptrend. </p><p>The buyers should lean on it in
case the price pulls back, but the sellers will eye a break below it to pile in
more decisively and start targeting the support. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Concerned about persistence of core inflation</li><li>Weak pound is significant for inflation</li><li>There has been quite a hawkish tone from Fed and ECB</li><li>But the question is how much is priced into sterling</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>She has been one of the more hawkish voices in the BOE, even saying that last month if they had paused rate hikes then they would risk a „policy boogie“. So, the more aggressive tone here isn’t a surprise but those are interesting remarks at least with regards to the pound. But it is not likely that she will step over the line apart from what has already been said.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that after breaching the key <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 11492 the sellers
couldn’t maintain control and the buyers came in with vengeance pushing the
price back above the level. The price is now at the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> which will act as resistance. </p><p>The rally on Friday is seen as a
squeeze as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-ism-services-pmi-551-vs-545-expected-20230303/“>ISM
Services PMI</a> beat expectations and should have been bearish for
the market as good news is now seen as bad news due to the repricing of higher
interest rates. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the buyers will now fight with a strong level before getting more
conviction for higher highs. The price has rallied into a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> zone with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> of the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. </p><p>The strong rally on Friday has
also overextended the price from the blue short period moving average. In such
instances, the price generally consolidates or pulls back before the next move.
</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the near term price action. We can see that while the price
was breaching the support at 11492, it was <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>. That is a sign of a loss of
momentum and generally signals a pullback. </p><p>The moving averages on this
timeframe have clearly crossed to the upside and conservative sellers may want
to wait for them to cross back to the downside before considering new
positions. Aggressive sellers may start to pile in here at this strong
resistance zone. A break above should give the buyers control, so the sellers
can fold quickly. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Expects that it will take a very long time for inflation to come down</li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.