The headliner for the April seasonals package was that risk trades had room to continue to run.
That didn’t turn out to be the case at all but some of the seasonal trades still worked. For instance, our first pick was AUD/JPY longs. That pair made some good headway in April and still finished the month higher despite heavy selling in the last week or so.
Another one that worked was oil. Despite the SPR and China lockdowns, oil was remarkably resilient. That might speak to seasonal demand.
In other trades like stocks, cable and USD/CAD the seasonal patterns didn’t work at all.
Ultimately, they’re one part of the toolbox and are running into an aggressive Fed and expectations of a global growth stumble combined with a broad deleveraging.
Here’s what May has in store:
1) AUD weakness
The Australian dollar is unusually weak in May right across the board, even against related currencies like CAD (it’s the weakest month of the year by far in AUD/CAD).
2) Don’t doubt the dollar
The rally in the dollar was the singular event in the FX market in April. It took down some big levels against GBP, EUR and JPY — hitting multi-year highs. What next? The seasonals say it’s no time to stop betting on the buck. In the past 20 years, it’s averaged a 0.69% gain — the best of any month, including gains in 9 of the past 12 years.
3) Euro weakness
Given the strength in DXY, it should be no surprise that May is a weak month for the euro. In fact, it’s the weakest month by a decent margin. I would note though that it’s risen in May for two consecutive years. Still, there’s been a technical breakdown in the pair and the ECB is struggling to manage a rapidly-deteriorating growth picture combined with an inflation shock and a war. That’s not a pretty fundamental picture.
4) Cable softness
Cable crumbled late in April and there isn’t much seasonal help coming in May. It ranks as the second-worst month on average and is on a streak of declines in 11 of the past 12 years.

The big issue is not raising deposit rate from -0.50%, it is about normalisationI think Lane’s remarks above has made things rather clear. With the inflation report earlier today, there is little doubt that the ECB will look to angle things more aggressively or at least tee up a potential move in July. The fact that Lane isn’t pushing back on market expectations and instead is making mention to a weaker euro is quite a clear signal in my view.

The Reuters report says that the initial guidance would be expanded, with a source noting „some further detail on the analysist will be provided to member states“.For some context, Russia had proposed that buyers be obliged to deposit euros or dollars into an account with Gazprombank, which will then be used to convert them into rubles. Thus, allowing for the payment to be effectively made in rubles and satisfying Moscow’s demand on the matter.The issue here comes down to the interpretation of that series of transactions. If European buyers are to commit to that, are they actually paying in euros or in rubles effectively? The EU had said that complying with the proposal could breach the bloc’s sanctions but there is no black and white.As things stand, there are countries disagreeing with the advice by the EU with Poland and Bulgaria (both countries cut off by Russia) saying that it is confusing. As such, this threatens to undermine the unity within the bloc in going against Russia. But hey, it is the EU. What else is new. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

For decades to come, blockchain technology will be
remembered as one of the greatest technological advancements of the 21st
century and beyond. At this point, the gambling sector is benefiting greatly from technological advancements.
Only if blockchain aficionados continue to devote their time to exploring the
many benefits of this technology will this movement continue to grow.

Throughout human history, gambling has existed, and
the internet only helped to spread it over the globe, allowing people to gamble
from the comfort of their own homes. The development of gambling-focused
decentralized apps using blockchain technology has accelerated this pace
greatly.

Introduction to Crypto

In order to avoid confusion, it’s critical to
distinguish the terms „bitcoin“ and „cryptocurrencies“.
Although bitcoins are a kind of cryptocurrency, they are not the only one.
Bitcoin was one of the earliest and most popular currencies to emerge. Because
of its enormous popularity, Bitcoin has long been the most appreciated
cryptocurrency on the market. The currency’s rising worth has persuaded many financial experts to recommend that individuals invest in
it.

It is virtual money that was created for the usage on
the internet. As a result, there is no physical representation of it. Its
blockchain technology, which makes it safe, private, and one-of-a-kind, has
made it relevant. This same public demand has driven its value upwards
throughout the years and continues to do so.

Convenience of Implementing Blockchain in
the Industry

When you utilize a bank transfer to make your
payments, this is the situation: you need to go to the bank, wait in huge
lines, fill out various forms, and then wait a few days for that payment to
arrive at its final destination. However, utilizing cryptocurrencies could
potentially eliminate such inconveniences throughout the whole gambling
industry. Most of the best bitcoin casinos in 2022 still allow
traditional payments, but we expect that this will change in the near future.
By using cryptocurrencies, the withdrawals would be made almost instantaneously
making the whole experience much better.

Mobile phones and PCs may both be used to make
deposits and withdrawals, but that’s not all. To top it all off, doing business
with the US would be as simple as 1, 2, 3. The recipient’s address is all you
need to make a deposit and the money is transferred in a matter of minutes. It
is also possible to withdraw money using the same method, making the whole
procedure smooth and easy to use.

Security Improvements

Many internet gamblers are concerned that their
financial information may be compromised by criminals. During this year’s
worldwide epidemic, Experian saw an upsurge in online fraud.

The advantages of blockchain technology should be obvious
to anybody who has studied the intricacies of bitcoin. A digital asset’s
provenance may be recorded in a blockchain database in a manner that makes it
almost impossible to alter. It’s a digital ledger that keeps track of every
transaction involving money, and it’s accessible to anybody.

To put it another way, employing this technology is
incredibly safe and secure. As each transaction has a unique identifying code,
it is straightforward to follow the movement of cryptocurrency. These
transactions can’t be tampered with since digital currencies are encrypted.
Payments made with conventional currencies are less secure than those conducted
using blockchain technology. It also lessens the likelihood of unauthorized
transactions by internet users.

Cost-Efficient Transactions

 

It’s impossible to verify the legitimacy of a
cryptocurrency transaction since there is no controlling organization to do so.
There are usually extra expenses and transaction fees imposed by banks when
transactions are done in conventional currencies. You will be charged a cash
advance if you use your credit card to gamble, for example. Cash advance fees
range from three to five percent, and the annual percentage rate (APR) on these
loans is high, according to Finder. In overseas transactions, this cost is much
larger.

Both the gambler and the casino bear the burden of
these extra expenses. With bitcoin, these costs may either be eliminated
totally or reduced greatly. You don’t even need to go to a bank to convert this
cryptocurrency into fiat cash.

Bigger Winnings?

 

There is a potential that cryptocurrency’s value may
rise above what is usual. To put it another way, as the value of Bitcoin and
other forms of cryptocurrency rises, you’ll be able to increase the size of
your wins and casino bonus awards. You may take advantage of this benefit by
keeping an eye on the value of particular cryptocurrencies so that you can get
free money in addition to your original gains.

You’ll reap the most benefits if you use
cryptocurrencies to play at online casinos, bonus websites, or any other kind
of online gambling. Try out the benefits we discussed above by signing up for
an account on one of the most prominent cryptocurrency sites.

Conclusion

It’s no secret that cryptocurrencies have made their
way into the market, and they’re straightforward to use, as well. Gamblers are
now using cryptocurrencies like Ripple and Litecoin because of its acceptance
in the gaming sector. Cryptocurrencies are favored by many because of their
anonymity and the ability to stay up with current market developments.

In technical
analysis, divergence occurs when a momentum indicator, like some oscillators,
starts to go the opposite direction compared to the price action. This
phenomenon shows a weakening in price momentum and signals possible pullbacks
or even change in trends. The most used indicators for divergence trading are
the RSI and the MACD.

 

There are
four types of divergence: bullish (positive), bearish (negative), hidden
bullish (positive) and hidden bearish (negative). The bullish (positive)
divergence occurs when the price makes a new low, but the oscillator makes a
high compared to the previous data. On the other hand, a bearish (negative)
divergence occurs when the price makes a new high, but the oscillator makes a
low compared to the previous data. These two types of divergence are also
called regular.

Divergence using the
MACD

 

The bullish
(positive) hidden divergence happens when in uptrend the price makes a higher
low, but the oscillator makes a lower low. On the other hand, a bearish
(negative) hidden divergence happens when in a downtrend the price makes a
lower high, but the oscillator makes a higher high. The hidden divergence can
signal a continuation of the trend.

Divergence using the
RSI

 

As
previously mentioned, regular divergence signals a weakening momentum, and the
price can either pullback or change completely the trend. There are different
targets where the price can go to once a divergence works out. The first target
is generally the previous swing point or a trendline and instead of taking a
risky counter-trend trade you can use this opportunity to wait for the price to
pullback to the swing point or the trendline and then trade a continuation of
the original trend. Below you can see some examples where divergent price
action pullbacks to trendlines and swing point before continuing the upside
trend.

Divergent price action
pullbacks

 

Another
target of the regular divergence is the last swing point that technically
defines a trend. Once the price breaks out of that swing point, the trend is
said to be changed on that specific timeframe. Below you can see an example
where the price pullbacks all the way up to that last swing point and then gets
rejected almost perfectly before continuing the original downtrend. Again,
instead of trying to catch the point when the price starts to go all the way up
to the swing point, you can wait for it to complete the run and then entering
in anticipation of the continuation of the trend to catch bigger moves and to
limit better risk.

Last swing point as
divergence target

 

The last
usual target of the regular divergence can be the last swing point that began
an entire divergent move. This generally happens with a chart pattern called
wedge, which is divergent in nature.

 

The price
goes up/down slowly with pullbacks getting smaller and smaller and the
oscillator signalling a weakening momentum for the entire move which at some
point just breaks out and goes all the way back to the swing point when the
divergence started to occur. Below you can see an example of a wedge type
divergence and the price pulling all the way back to the swing point when the
divergence began. Curious fact is that before continuing the upside trend,
there was another divergence that could confirm that level as a possible
support for a continuation trade.

 

 

To sum up,
divergence is a nice and handy technical analysis concept which can help in
risk management and even timing. As you saw from previous examples, it’s not
used on its own but complemented with other technical concepts like swing levels,
trendlines and so on to give more structure.

 

This article
was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.

Some profit-taking in the recent dollar rally is the most plausible argument for the price action in FX today as we see the greenback lag across the board.
The dollar has had a stellar month of trading in April so seeing some slight corrective action isn’t the most surprising thing. That said, with month-end in focus today, it does make it fairly tricky to interpret the moves.
EUR/USD is up 0.8% to 1.0575 but in the context of the bigger picture, it doesn’t mean much:

The pair is still pressured on a break below the 2020 low of 1.0635 and near-term resistance in the form of the 100-hour moving average is only seen at 1.0610. Buyers will have to break past those levels to really justify of any deeper correction.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD is up over 100 pips on the day to 1.2560 levels but it also isn’t indicative of much as outlined earlier here.
Elsewhere, USD/JPY did drop briefly below 130.00 but dip buyers are showing their appetite once again by quickly buying up the pair to be around 130.30-40 levels at the moment:

Prior +7.6%HICP +0.7% vs +0.4% m/m expectedPrior +2.5%CPI +7.4% vs +7.2% y/y expectedPrior +7.3%CPI +0.8% vs +0.6% m/m expectedPrior +2.5%It may not be the biggest of increases but German annual inflation did indeed creep higher again in April and that just continues to put further pressure on the ECB. While there are certain proxies in the region suggesting that inflation may be peaking, it doesn’t look to be the case in Germany just yet and even so, it doesn’t look like we will see price pressures cool off materially at least.The two main culprits are once again surging energy prices and also higher prices of raw materials, plagued by supply chain disruptions.The month-on-month readings also continue to suggest stronger cost pressures in general, which will not be of much comfort if the trend continues even as annual inflation may be close to hitting a plateau.

Headlines:USD/JPY up 2% to 131.00 as yen capitulates furtherUSD/JPY hits 130.00 for the first time in 20 yearsBOJ plays a dangerous game, yen lock and loaded for the next leg lowerBOJ’s Kuroda: Desirable for currency to move stably reflecting economic fundamentalsBOJ’s Kuroda reaffirms bond market operations is to ensure cap on 10-year yields targetBOJ’s Kuroda: Consecutive bond buying operations is to avoid speculative market movesThe dollar is on a rampageNo red line being drawn yet on the yuan’s plungeSaxony April CPI +7.2% vs +7.0% y/y priorSpain April preliminary CPI +8.4% vs +9.0% y/y expectedOPEC+ said to be likely to stick with existing deal at next week’s meetingMarkets:USD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.5%US 10-year yields up 0.4 bps to 2.822%Gold up 0.2% to $1,889.60WTI down 0.5% to $101.52Bitcoin up 1.4% to $39,682It’s all about the dollar again today with the yen’s capitulation also part of the picture, as the BOJ opts to maintain its yield curve control policy. That sent USD/JPY skyrocketing to its highest in two decades, with the pair rising above 130.00 to briefly clip 131.00 and is holding just below that now.The greenback’s strength was evident in the handover from Asia to Europe, helped by a continued depreciation in the Chinese yuan. Again, I feel this is something that many aren’t talking about but it is worth noting as it is feeding to further dollar gains this week.In that lieu, I’d argue the plunge in the yuan is also partly weighing on the aussie and kiwi – which are both struggling heavily today despite better equities sentiment.AUD/USD is down 0.5% to 0.7080 levels, as sellers eye a potential move towards 0.7000 again while NZD/USD is down 1.1% to 0.6470 levels, which is the weakest since July 2020.Meanwhile, EUR/USD is being pressured below 1.0500 as it trades to fresh five-year lows while GBP/USD is down another 110 pips to 1.2438 as the pound continues its freefall against the dollar.The bond market is taking a bit of a breather while equities are seeing a solid bounce to try and salvage some pride after what has been a torrid month of trading so far for stocks. European indices are holding gains well above 1% while US futures are also pointing to a solid open, helped by Meta’s earnings beat yesterday.

That means OPEC+ will agree to another 432k bpd oil output increase for June. The bloc is scheduled to meet on 5 May, so mark that in your calendars. That said, with the lack of enthusiasm to address the elephant in the room, OPEC+ meetings these days have been a real bore.But you can’t really blame them for being satisfied with oil prices at over $100 now, can you?

It didn’t take long for the dollar to regain its footing as it is now putting the pedal to the metal once again. EUR/USD is back down 0.5% to 1.0500 and GBP/USD is making fresh lows on the day, down 0.6% to 1.2465. I outlined the charts for both earlier here.Meanwhile, the aussie and kiwi have also lost ground with AUD/USD down 0.5% to 0.7090 and NZD/USD down 1.0% to 0.6475. I highlighted their respective technical predicaments earlier here.USD/JPY is also still sticking above 130.00 around 130.30-50 levels after briefly clipping 131.00.I talked more on the dollar’s rampaging run earlier in these posts:The dollar is on a rampageNo red line being drawn yet on the yuan’s plungeBOJ plays a dangerous game, yen lock and loaded for the next leg lowerDollar funding looking rather tight as of late