<ul><li>Labor market is still ‚quite tight'</li><li>Inflation is likely past its peak</li><li>Inflation expectations are well-anchored but under-surface movements warrant caution</li><li>My view is still in step with the FOMC</li><li>We still have work to do</li><li>Expect no rate cuts this year</li></ul>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Daily changes:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 +1.6%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp +2.0%</li><li>DJIA +1.2%</li><li>Russell 2000 +1.3%</li><li>Toronto TSX +1.2%</li></ul><p>Weekly changes:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 +1.9%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp +2.6%</li><li>Russell 2000 2.7%</li><li>Toronto TSX +1.7%</li></ul><p>Greg highlighted the technical earlier and how the S&P 500 has quickly comeback from a trip below the 200-dma.</p><p>The weekly chart shows a nice bounce but it didn’t get above last week’s intraday high.</p><p>What’s been driving markets is the hope that the Fed is near a top. Fed funds are pricing in 5.44% in July and 2-year yields nearly hit 5% earlier this week. That’s led to a wave of speculation that we hit the top in yields and rate hike expectations and the hope that all the risks are towards rate cuts after July.</p><p>It’s been an impressive flood of money and that was emphasized with the huge gains today.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The USDCHF has extended to a new session low and in the process is dipping below the rising 200 hour moving average at 0.93619. The low-priced has just reached 0.93584.</p><p>The last time the USDCHF price traded below its 200 day moving average was back on February 21 when the 200 hour moving average was at 0.9228. Over the next 4 1/2 days, the price moved up 200 pips to a high of 0.94284 reached on February 27. </p><p>Since then, the price has been waffling up and down with a low near 0.93406 and highs near 0.9440 (reached just yesterday). The high price yesterday got within about six pips of the falling 100 day moving average at 0.9346 (at the time). Sellers leaned against the key daily moving average. The price started to rotate back to the downside. </p><p>The dollar selling today, help by lower yields and a rising stock market, has also helped to push the USDCHF lower. </p><p>Now traders will decide if they want to move further below the 200 hour moving average and look to test the floor area near 0.9340 to 0.9348.</p><p>Alternatively if buyers lean against the moving average, getting back above 0.9369 is the first hurdle that would give the dip buyer some short-term satisfaction. Staying above that area and a move back toward the 100 hour moving average and swing area between 0.9387 and 0.9393 cannot be ruled out over time.</p><p>Of course as we head into the close, this area would be a natural level for shorts heading into the weekend, to take some profit..</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p>Bitcoin
plunged more than 6% to $22.0K early this morning. The plunge into this area
came as a market reaction to the potential bankruptcy of Silvergate. The news
triggered a wave of stop orders on fears that the situation could cause a
domino effect in the industry, as with FTX earlier in the day.</p><p>Technically,
the dip has pushed the price below its 50-day moving average, which does not
bode well for the short-term outlook, although this signal will only be
reliable at the close of the day. The intraday picture is one of tidy buying
after a brief dip. The overall moderately positive sentiment in the global
markets supports the buy-the-dip mood.</p><p>A return
above $22.8 an ounce before today’s close could spark further buying. Closing
near the lows would be an essential signal to spread fear throughout the crypto
market, suggesting a further drawdown to $19.7K in the coming weeks.</p><p>News Background</p><p>Shares in US
holding company Silvergate Capital Corporation, which owns crypto bank
Silvergate, plunged almost 49% on news of a delay in publishing its annual
report to the SEC. The company said it needed „additional time“ to
complete its audit.</p><p>Silvergate
Bank has announced that it may file for bankruptcy due to a massive sell-off
and an inability to repay its debts. Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency
exchange, has announced severing its financial relationship with Silvergate
Bank.</p><p>According to
Glassnode, retail bitcoin investors‘ purchases have outpaced coin issuance.
Investors with balances up to 1 BTC („shrimps“) and between 1 and 10
BTC („crabs“) over the past year have bought 105% and 119%,
respectively, more Bitcoins that were mined.</p><p>Ethereum
developers have set March 14 as the date for the Shanghai upgrade on the Goerli
test network. If the test network upgrade succeeds, the main network upgrade
could occur in the second week of April.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The more positive risk mood now is to do with a retreat in bond yields today but it really feels like just another day in the office for European equities this year. As for US equities, it has been a bit of a struggle and even yesterday’s turnaround is hardly convincing of a major switch up in sentiment. In fact, it may even be more of a technical one:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The S&P 500 index caught a bounce off its 200-day moving average (blue line) with the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing higher from October also holding at 3,926 – at least for now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>US futures are slightly higher now but it is still early in the day. The ISM services index later could end up being a key event that either vindicates the current mood or breaks it apart. As such, even with equities holding some light optimism at the moment, I would say that it is not without a sense of apprehension and nerves as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In short, sentiment remains fragile for US equities even if we are seeing buyers look to build on yesterday’s advance. We’ll have to take stock of the market mood again after the US ISM services index later today.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price started to lose momentum falling into the neckline <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at the 1.1839 price level. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are acting as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> and the sellers keep leaning on
them. </p><p>This suggests a bearish bias as
the economic data keeps coming in hot like the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report and the Fed is starting to lean on the more
hawkish side like <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-waller-fomc-may-need-to-raise-rates-beyond-decembers-51-54-central-tendency-view-20230302/“>Fed’s
Waller</a> suggested yesterday. </p><p>Today we will have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and if that beats
expectations we are likely to see more selling pressure with a possible
breakout of the neckline.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how the sellers leant on the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and pushed the price lower. This
is starting to look like a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>descending
triangle</a> pattern with the base at the 1.1922 level. </p><p>The sellers will eye a break
below that level to get even more conviction for a breakout of the neckline.
The buyers will need a break above the trendline to get the conviction to make
higher highs.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the key levels of the current range. We have the resistance at 1.2143 and
the support at 1.1922. Today will be all about the ISM report and the market
will go where the data will take it. </p><p>If the data beats expectations,
especially the “prices” sub-index, then we will see the sellers in full control
and the support giving way. If the data misses expectations, we will see a
rally towards the trendline. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the sellers failed to break decisively the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 32684 on the first try.
This may be just a pullback before more economic data confirms the new
downtrend. </p><p>We got some bearish stuff in the
past days with the “prices paid” sub-index in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report showing a jump back into expansion and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-waller-fomc-may-need-to-raise-rates-beyond-decembers-51-54-central-tendency-view-20230302/“>Fed’s
Waller</a> yesterday signalling that the Fed will go above their projected
terminal rate if the data keeps coming in strong. </p><p>Today we will have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and if that beats
expectations, especially in the “prices” sub-index, then we should see the
support breaking and more selling pressure coming in going forward. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been consolidating near the support as the market awaits
more economic data before confirming the bearish trend. </p><p>On the upside, we may see the
buyers pushing the price into the 33538 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> where we can also find 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level, but that looks unlikely unless today’s
report misses expectations. On the downside, we should see the sellers jumping
in strongly in case the report beats expectations with a breakout of the
support at 32684 very likely. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the more near-term price action. The buyers may manage to get to the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level before the PMI report which would act a strong
resistance and would be a gift for the sellers if the data beats expectations.
On the downside, more aggressive sellers may also enter at the breakout of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> in expectation that the support
won’t hold. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I don’t think we are going get much answers to that in European trading today. However, it certainly is a key spot to watch before the weekend and later in US trading – especially with the ISM services index in focus. 10-year yields in the US are down about 6 bps now to near 4.00% and that threatens to erase the jump higher yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In turn, this is seeing equities stay slightly more upbeat on the session and is continuing to keep the dollar lower on the day. USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 136.20 now in a steady drop from 136.65 after the handover from Asia.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>USD vs the Israeli shekel during demonstrations</p><p>Several rallies and demonstrations have occurred in Israel in recent years, and the latest disturbances look to be lowering the shekel. While it is difficult to measure the impact of social unrest on currency exchange rates, there are several elements that influence the value of a currency. In this post, we will study how the demonstrations are influencing the shekel and evaluate the historical tendencies throughout moments of social turmoil in Israel.Protests in Israel are now focused on a a possible judicial reform that the protestors claim is hurting democracy. But it is hard to define how much of this specifically has weakened the shekel among other factors such as the general strengthening of the dollar, or Israel’s central bank raising rates, or other economic factors relating to Israel. Still, it is common belief within Israel that the latest protests are not helping the shekel, to say the least. Here is a quick technical analysis of the USD vs the ILS in the past 9 weeks of unrest.</p><p>Israeli shekel vs the US dollar: A technical analysis since the 1st judicial reform demonstration</p><p>What happened to the shekel in past social unrests?</p><p>The shekel originally fell during the COVID-19 epidemic as investors grew more risk-averse and retreated from emerging nations like as Israel. But, as Israel’s vaccination effort continued and the country was viewed as a pioneer in handling the epidemic, the shekel rose and hit its best level in more than a decade versus the US dollar. But, with the latest demonstrations, the shekel appears to be weakening once more.Looking back on the 2011 social justice rallies, the shekel first fell against major currencies as investors grew increasingly hesitant to engage in the Israeli economy. However, the shekel recovered later in the year, as the demonstrations had no substantial political or economic consequences.Protests against corruption and the government in 2018-2019 had little influence on the shekel because the political environment remained relatively steady throughout this period. Nevertheless, as the corruption charges against Netanyahu grew and eventually to his resignation from power in 2021, the shekel’s value fluctuated.While demonstrations and social unrest can add to market volatility and uncertainty, their impact on the Israeli shekel is often limited and impacted by a variety of other variables such as global economic circumstances, political events, and monetary policy choices. Yet, the current demonstrations appear to be having a bigger influence on the shekel, and it will be intriguing to observe how the situation develops in the future.Finally, societal disturbance, such as the current riots in Israel, may have a big influence on a country’s currency exchange rates. While it is difficult to forecast how the demonstrations will eventually effect the shekel, investors and traders should be attentive and keep a watch on the situation as it unfolds. </p><p>Visit <a target=“_blank“ href=“www.forexlive.com“>ForexLive.com</a> for additional views.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see the price is slowly approaching the major broken downward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a>. That is something the buyers
are watching and hoping for the level to hold, but the sentiment is
increasingly turning bearish. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are pointing south and yesterday we got some bad news in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report where the “prices paid” sub-index jumped
back into expansion and triggered more worries about another inflationary wave
and a more hawkish Fed. For now, the market is in a “sell the rallies” mode.</p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the price is <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> coming into the major trendline.
That is a sign of weaker momentum and it may be caused by the buyers fighting
hard the sellers as a breakout lower may trigger a bigger selloff. </p><p>The
moving averages have acted nicely as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> for the bearish trend and we can
expect them to continue to do so as long as the economic data keeps coming in
strong. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that if we were to get a pullback, the price is likely to come back to the
trendline and the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The sellers will start to pile in there as
the risk will be defined. </p><p>Tomorrow we have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and that’s another key
economic report that the market will be focused on. Strong readings, especially
on the prices side, should lead to another selloff, while weak numbers should
give the buyers some relief and lead to a more positive sentiment. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.