<p>The market has been trading on a
risk on mood in the past few weeks taking bad news as good news, with the Dow Jones benefiting.</p><p>The beat in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-non-farm-payrolls-223k-vs-200k-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>NFP</a> and the miss in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-december-us-services-496-vs-550-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>ISM
Services PMI</a> reports sparked a rally that managed to break out
of the Christmas holidays range. Moreover, the lack of comments on monetary
policy or recent set of economic data from <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-we-need-to-stick-to-our-mandate-20230110/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> gave the market the confidence to keep on reaching
new highs. </p><p>Yesterday though, the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-retail-sales-11-vs-08-expected-20230118/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Retail
Sales</a> data showed a big miss to expectations and the
previous numbers were revised downward. The still high inflation,
rising interest rates and recession fears are all big headwinds for the
consumer and this is starting to be clearer by the day. The market sold off
after the news and even fell back into the Christmas range. Maybe, the bad
news is indeed bad news now?</p><p>DOW JONES Technical Analysis</p><p>In the daily chart above, we can
see how the market broke out of the Christmas range and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>resistance</a> zone at 33450-33650 and kept on
rallying to new highs. The lack of additional catalysts and weakening momentum
to the upside started to weigh on price action. </p><p>Eventually, the big miss in
retail sales report pushed the market lower and the price is now back again
below the previous broken resistance. If the bearish sentiment continues,
the targets will be the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>support</a> level at 31761 and the October
low at 28650.</p><p>In the 1-hour chart above, we
can see all the recent major catalysts that sparked the rally and the breakout
of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> zone. As the momentum to the upside
started to dwindle the market pulled back a bit waiting for another catalyst. But
the big miss in retail sales data made the market to sell off and return back
into the previous range. </p><p>Zooming in to the 15 minutes
chart, we can see that at the moment the selling momentum is getting exhausted
as depicted by the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>falling
broadening wedge</a> pattern and the price <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>divergence</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-relative-strength-index-rsi-20220426/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>RSI</a> indicator. </p><p>We should see a pullback into the
resistance area at 33450-33650 before looking for a continuation to the
downside.
Alternatively, the market may again break to the upside and restart the bullish
trend. This might happen if jobless claims beat again expectations. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Here’s a snapshot of the equities space at the moment:</p><ul><li>Eurostoxx -0.9%</li><li>Germany DAX -0.9%</li><li>France CAC 40 -0.8%</li><li>UK FTSE -0.6%</li><li>S&P 500 futures -0.4%</li><li>Nasdaq futures -0.4%</li><li>Dow futures -0.4%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>While European indices are seeing modest losses (also in part to catching up to the drop in Wall Street yesterday), US futures aren’t faring any better. S&P 500 futures are down 16 points, or 0.4%, now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This continues from the sour mood yesterday with the technical picture not offering much comfort as highlighted earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-failed-breakout-is-the-last-thing-that-stocks-need-right-now-20230119/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The softer risk tones are weighing on the antipodeans in particular, with the aussie and kiwi both down by roughly 0.9% on the day. AUD/USD is down at the lows around 0.6880, with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-begins-to-lose-altitude-after-failure-to-keep-above-07000-20230119/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>failed breakout above 0.7000</a> perhaps marking a bit of a turning point in the short-term.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>Setting the standard for excellence in the fintech and financial services industry, the UF AWARDS count among the most coveted accolades that a B2B or B2C brand can attain. Winning an UF Award shines new light on the merits of industry players competing for the same target market. The UF AWARDS MEA are no exception. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Crowning the best brokers and the best B2B fintech companies in the Middle East and Africa, they distinguish those industry leaders who continue to innovate and reinvent themselves to keep up with the industry’s transformational pace.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Organised to the finest detail by Ultimate Fintech, the UF AWARDS MEA 2023 Ceremony concluded this year’s edition of the iFX EXPO Dubai. On the 18th of January, the exclusive ceremony congregated the best of fintech and financial services under the roof of the Orange Feels Bar – Hotel Indigo Dubai Downtown to applaud the best B2B and B2C brands in the Middle East and Africa.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>From the dozens of companies competing for an UF Award this year, only a few <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://ultimatefintech.com/winning/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>winners</a> emerged. And these winners are….?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Broker Awards</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Multi-Asset Broker – MEA: Exness</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Most Transparent Broker – MEA: Vantage</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best CFD Broker – MEA: AAAFx</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best ECN/STP Broker- MEA: Fxview</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best IB/Affiliate Programme – MEA: Exness</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Trading Experience – MEA: Vantage</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Education Tools – MEA: YaMarkets</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Forex Spreads – MEA: Tickmill</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Most Innovative Broker – Africa: Kwakol Markets</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Broker – Africa: JustMarkets</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Most Trusted Broker – Middle East: MultiBank Group</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Broker – Middle East: OneRoyal</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>B2B Awards</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Trading Platform – MEA: Match-Trader Platform</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Social Trading Solution – MEA: ZuluTrade</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Multi-Asset Liquidity Provider – MEA: Match-Prime Liquidity</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Connectivity Provider – MEA: oneZero</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Bridge Provider – MEA: Centroid Solutions</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Technology Provider – MEA: Your Bourse</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Risk Management Solution – MEA: Centroid Solutions</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Client Onboarding Solution – MEA – Shufti Pro</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Crypto Solution for Payments – MEA: Match2Pay</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best All-In-One Brokerage Solution – MEA: Quadcode</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best RegTech Reporting Solution – MEA: Shufti Pro</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Trader Retention Tool – MEA: Solitics</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Fastest Growing Technology Provider – MEA – PLUGIT</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Most Outstanding Innovator in Crypto Payments – MEA: Capital Wallet</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Fintech AI Solution – MEA: Shufti Pro</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Payment Service Provider – Africa: Swiffy</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Ultimate Fintech would like to thank everyone who participated in the UF AWARDS MEA 2023 and, of course, “Congratulations!” to the worthy winners.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Just be mindful that the sources cited are claiming that these are non-finalised figures, noting that the report is set to show the German economy narrowly escaping a recession with a growth of 0.2% in 2023. The forecast for 2024 shows a growth of 1.8%. Adding to that, inflation is expected to be at 6.0% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The full report will be presented next week on 25 January in any case. But as always when it comes to these sort of forecasts, it’s not so much about the numbers. This first draft will act as a benchmark for which the revisions later in the year will reflect economic and market sentiment relative to how expectations were set at the start of the year.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The euro was dented yesterday after a report came out suggesting that there might just be <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecb-sources-50-bps-at-the-next-meeting-and-then-25-bps-afterwards-20230117/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>one more 50 bps rate hike on the cards</a> left for the ECB. But it is recovering well now with the dollar feeling the heat in European trading, as we see EUR/USD rise up to 1.0860 levels at the moment:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The push higher closes in on the highs at the start of the week as the bullish breakout in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/eur-usd/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“a68cd323-8af1-4ecb-a8dd-0aa83e90da63″ target=“_blank“>EUR/USD</a> continues to stay intact. The softer dollar today is but another contributing factor to the technical momentum as of late, which is better depicted through the weekly chart below.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As seen above, there is scope for the upside push to extend towards the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the downswing from 2021 through to September last year, sitting at around 1.0942. That will be a key point to watch before added resistance comes into play at 1.1000 next.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The euro sentiment today is also helped by Villeroy’s earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-too-early-to-speculate-about-what-we-will-do-in-march-20230118/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>comments</a>, reaffirming that Lagarde’s earlier rate guidance still stands.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Core CPI +5.2% vs +5.2% y/y prelim</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>No change to the initial estimates but just keep in mind that while headline annual inflation did drop in the euro area, core inflation continues to pose a problem for the region. That’s indicative of price pressures seeping into the more prominent parts of the economy, not just in fuel and energy prices.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Perhaps most importantly for the technical analysis for the Nasdaq Composite, the market reacted positively to
the beat in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-non-farm-payrolls-223k-vs-200k-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>NFP</a> data and the miss in Average
Hourly Earnings and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-december-us-services-496-vs-550-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>ISM
Services PMI</a>. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-we-need-to-stick-to-our-mandate-20230110/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> has not touched on monetary policy or recent set
of data and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-cpi-65-yy-vs-65-expected-20230112/“>CPI</a> report came out as expected. </p><p>Overall, the market interpreted
the recent developments as good news with inflation moderating and the labour
market remaining strong. The “soft landing” narrative is again in the
front seat and it’s driving the stock market to new highs. </p><p>The China reopening may also be a
contributor as the market may expect global growth to hold on in the
short-term, but it may also reignite inflationary pressures and make the Fed’s
job harder. </p><p>For now, the market is looking
only to the good side of things, and it will probably need really bad data on
the growth side to change the sentiment.</p><p>Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis</p><p>On the daily chart above, the
price has breached to the upside the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>resistance</a> zone in the 10900 price region.
The target for the bulls now would be the resistance in the 11500 price area. A
failure to sustain the bullish momentum and a fall below 10900 would give the
bears control again.</p><p>On the 1-hour chart above, we can
see that the price is indeed struggling sustaining the bullish momentum
as depicted by the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>rising
wedge pattern</a> and the price <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>divergence</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-relative-strength-index-rsi-20220426/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>RSI</a>. This is ominous for the bulls
as the price is breaking out of the wedge and may fall below the 10900 level. </p><p>Zooming in to the 15 minutes
chart above, we can see that the bulls would need to break the 11143 level
and keep charging to invalidate the wedge pattern and target the resistance
at 11500. </p><p>On the other hand, a break
below the 11027 level would give the bears more control and a further fall
below the 10900 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level should signal the resumption
of the bearish trend.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p>Bitcoin
continues its streak of small wins, recording its 13th consecutive day of gains
on Tuesday, adding for 15 days in the last 16 sessions this year. </p><p>The exchange
rate rewrote a two-month high at $21.55K. Local overbought conditions continue
to build, with help from the stock indices, where the Nasdaq100 managed to
close Tuesday’s trading higher.</p><p>Bloomberg
strategist Mike McGlone said that the bottom in the crypto market has already
been passed. He noted that the charts resembled the situation in 2018, although
the macroeconomic situation is quite different. </p><p>Back then,
the Fed had already started easing its policy, but now it is a long way off,
„so anything can happen“.</p><p>It is easy
to agree with this statement, but we still point out that growth is vulnerable
to sharp declines at this stage. From a long-term investor perspective, we
pointed out already in November that the crypto market has passed its low
point. </p><p>However, the
best time for speculative buying is yet to come, when there will be a FOMO
stage, like we last saw from December 2020 to April 2021. An even more
colourful rise was from April to December 2017. In both cases, an acceleration
and near-ubiquitous rise after surpassing previous historical highs.</p><p>News background</p><p>Digital
currencies, CBDCs and stablecoins are the natural evolution of money and
payments and will fundamentally change the global financial system, Bank of
America believes. CBDCs „may become the most significant technological
advance in the history of money“.</p><p>According to
a new analysis by mining company Luxor, Bitcoin is showing
„resilience“ amid the challenges it has faced in the past year.
Macroeconomic pressures, natural anomalies, and the high volatility of some
mining companies‘ shares (and, in some cases, their bankruptcy) have never been
able to prevent the network’s hash rate from rising significantly.</p><p>The European
Parliament has changed the timetable for the European Union’s Cryptocurrency
Regulation Act (MiCA). Its final consideration has been pushed back to April.
The 400-page document needs to be translated into 24 EU languages.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Trade, domestic consumption in China will return to normal in 2023</li><li>China’s economy will see improvement and hit normal growth rate this year</li><li>Financial risks have appeared recently due to factors such as loose regulation</li><li>Working to stabilise property sector, reduce financial risks</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Some trivial remarks there and the narrative fits with the ongoing pledge by China to support the economy through the re-opening phase for now. In any case, Xi probably has some bigger issues to sort out as the one <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/chinas-population-fell-last-year-the-first-time-since-1961-20230117/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In Japanese circles, that’s a stark contrast to the assumed interest rate of 1.1% set when the government compiled a draft state budget for the coming fiscal year. That’s the same long-term rate used for the budgets in the last six years even if actual borrowing costs have fallen short of said figure. I mean, in the past, the coupon rate on 10-year JGBs were 0.20% before the latest change at the start of this year made it 0.50%.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Is this yet another hint by Japanese officials that a bigger change to policy is coming? The yen isn’t really reacting much to it though with USD/JPY up 0.3% at 128.90. Meanwhile, 10-year JGB yields are still holding above the 0.50% upper limit set out by the BOJ – the third straight session running – on the eve of tomorrow’s policy decision.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.